Round 1, Game 1: Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

[Inigo Montoya]

The time is almost upon us. This is where all the roster changes and acquisitions that were made in the pre-season are really measured and tested.

My bet: Denver in 6.

[Catchall]

Mitchell should outperform Jamal Murray in most games.
Clarkson and Conley should both outperform Michael Porter Jr. in most games.
The Jazz as a team should generate and make more 3s than the Nuggets in virtually every game.
Our rotation guys like Ingles, Royce, Niang and Bradley should keep pace with Grant, Millsap, Craig, Plumlee and Morris.

The question is how good Jokic is going to be in his matchup against Gobert (and Utah's defense as a whole). If Jokic is an unstoppable superstar, then the series favors Denver. If Jokic is merely good, then the series favors Utah.

[KqWIN]

Been saying this a lot, but the starters have win their matchup. They've won their matchup in recent matchups, but even that hasn't lead to wins. Our depth/bench is truly awful.

[red4hf]

It'a going to be hard without Bagdanovic, but the Jazz have a chance, I think a better chance than we would have had against Houston.....

If Clarkson and Niang can make shots off the bench we have a really good chance at an upset.....

[Inigo Montoya]

I wouldn't have minded playing a series against the Nuggets last season but this season they are more prepared and better.

[babyjax13]

I'm also predicting Denver in 6, but if we win it won't be a shock. I can't say that about us in just about any other matchup.

[Catchall]

Been saying this a lot, but the starters have win their matchup. They've won their matchup in recent matchups, but even that hasn't lead to wins. Our depth/bench is truly awful.

The Jazz have only played Denver once since the Clarkson trade. That was the double-OT game in the bubble that we didn't care about winning because the Jazz wanted this matchup. If the Jazz won that game, we'd be matched up with Houston. We pretty much let Jokic score on Royce with 3 seconds left to send the game to the second overtime.

That said, the lineup with Bradley, Niang, Ingles, Clarkson and Conley that came in at the end of the 3rd quarter needs to be tweaked.

[Catchall]

I wouldn't have minded playing a series against the Nuggets last season but this season they are more prepared and better.

Except that they're missing Gary Harris and Will Barton, two of their starters, top-5 leading scorers, and best perimeter defenders. Their defense is below league-average right now. The Jazz have a better rated offense and defense.

[Catchall]

I'm also predicting Denver in 6, but if we win it won't be a shock. I can't say that about us in just about any other matchup.

Jokic is going to have to be otherworldly, MPJ is going to have to be pretty consistent, and Jerami Grant is going to have to score some points for the Nuggets to win this. I'd feel pretty confident if I were the Jazz.

The Jazz, however, need to come up with a scheme to defend Jokic without using Gobert one on one. Maybe it's as simple as using two wings and doubling off of Torey Craig.

[babyjax13]

I'm also predicting Denver in 6, but if we win it won't be a shock. I can't say that about us in just about any other matchup.

Jokic is going to have to be otherworldly, MPJ is going to have to be pretty consistent, and Jerami Grant is going to have to score some points for the Nuggets to win this. I'd feel pretty confident if I were the Jazz.

Denver is deep, and if Barton is back, they will be tough. MPJ has been fantastic, Jokic is obviously amazing, and they also have Murray. If I had to rate players

Jokic>Gobert
Murray<Mitchell
MPJ>Conley
Barton = Ingles
Grant<O'neale
Plumlee>Bradley
Morris<Clarkson
Millsap>Niang
Craig>Brantley

If Harris comes back, that's where they really start to get separation from us.

[Catchall]

I'm also predicting Denver in 6, but if we win it won't be a shock. I can't say that about us in just about any other matchup.

Jokic is going to have to be otherworldly, MPJ is going to have to be pretty consistent, and Jerami Grant is going to have to score some points for the Nuggets to win this. I'd feel pretty confident if I were the Jazz.

Denver is deep, and if Barton is back, they will be tough. MPJ has been fantastic, Jokic is obviously amazing, and they also have Murray. If I had to rate players

Jokic>Gobert
Murray<Mitchell
MPJ>Conley
Barton = Ingles
Grant<O'neale
Plumlee>Bradley
Morris<Clarkson
Millsap>Niang
Craig>Brantley

If Harris comes back, that's where they really start to get separation from us.

Barton isn't close to coming back, from what I've heard. Gary Harris might be closer, but he hasn't practiced with the team yet. There's no timetable right now. This is what it's looking like.

Jokic > Gobert
Murray < Mitchell
MPJ < Clarkson
Morris < Conley
Craig = Royce (though Royce is a better shooter)
Millsap < Ingles
Grant > Niang
Plumlee = Bradley (though Plumlee is a better passer)

[babyjax13]

Jokic is going to have to be otherworldly, MPJ is going to have to be pretty consistent, and Jerami Grant is going to have to score some points for the Nuggets to win this. I'd feel pretty confident if I were the Jazz.

Denver is deep, and if Barton is back, they will be tough. MPJ has been fantastic, Jokic is obviously amazing, and they also have Murray. If I had to rate players

Jokic>Gobert
Murray<Mitchell
MPJ>Conley
Barton = Ingles
Grant<O'neale
Plumlee>Bradley
Morris<Clarkson
Millsap>Niang
Craig>Brantley

If Harris comes back, that's where they really start to get separation from us.

Barton isn't close to coming back, from what I've heard. Gary Harris might be closer, but he hasn't practiced with the team yet. There's no timetable right now. This is what it's looking like.

Jokic > Gobert
Murray < Mitchell
MPJ < Clarkson
Morris < Conley
Craig = Royce (though Royce is a better shooter)
Millsap < Ingles
Grant > Niang
Plumlee = Bradley (though Plumlee is a better passer)

MPJ is much better than Clarkson.

[Catchall]

Denver is deep, and if Barton is back, they will be tough. MPJ has been fantastic, Jokic is obviously amazing, and they also have Murray. If I had to rate players

Jokic>Gobert
Murray<Mitchell
MPJ>Conley
Barton = Ingles
Grant<O'neale
Plumlee>Bradley
Morris<Clarkson
Millsap>Niang
Craig>Brantley

If Harris comes back, that's where they really start to get separation from us.

Barton isn't close to coming back, from what I've heard. Gary Harris might be closer, but he hasn't practiced with the team yet. There's no timetable right now. This is what it's looking like.

Jokic > Gobert
Murray < Mitchell
MPJ < Clarkson
Morris < Conley
Craig = Royce (though Royce is a better shooter)
Millsap < Ingles
Grant > Niang
Plumlee = Bradley (though Plumlee is a better passer)

MPJ is much better than Clarkson.

No he's not. He's basically a rookie who shoots off a spot-up or a dribble or two to his left. The rest is cutting and rebounds. If MPJ outscores Clarkson in this series, the Jazz are in serious trouble. The Jazz can put Royce on him if his scoring becomes a problem.

You're asking a rookie, who has started 8 games and averages 9 pts, to suddenly step up and become a 20 ppg scorer in the playoffs against a top-10 defense that's game-planning for him. It's fair to say that's improbable. Maybe he goes off in a game or two.

I think MPJ will basically replace Will Barton's hot-and-cold shooting, but he'll then get attacked in pick-and-roll on the other end.

[sipclip]

Barton isn't close to coming back, from what I've heard. Gary Harris might be closer, but he hasn't practiced with the team yet. There's no timetable right now. This is what it's looking like.

Jokic > Gobert
Murray < Mitchell
MPJ < Clarkson
Morris < Conley
Craig = Royce (though Royce is a better shooter)
Millsap < Ingles
Grant > Niang
Plumlee = Bradley (though Plumlee is a better passer)

MPJ is much better than Clarkson.

No he's not. He's basically a rookie who shoots off a spot-up or a dribble or two to his left. The rest is cutting and rebounds. If MPJ outscores Clarkson in this series, the Jazz are in serious trouble. The Jazz can put Royce on him if his scoring becomes a problem.

You're asking a rookie, who has started 8 games and averages 9 pts, to suddenly step up and become a 20 ppg scorer in the playoffs against a top-10 defense that's game-planning for him. It's fair to say that's improbable. Maybe he goes off in a game or two.

I think MPJ will basically replace Will Barton's hot-and-cold shooting, but he'll then get attacked in pick-and-roll on the other end.

Porter is averaging 20 points a game when given starters minutes which he will receive. Also it is hard to game plan Porter when your game plan has to focus on Jokic who is capable of picking teams apart as a scorer and passer. They guy is a nightmare matchup. Also don't sleep on PJ Dozier making an impact for the nigs in this series of Harris and Barton can't go. Unfortunately they really shot themselves in the foot with the Malik Beasley trade. He was there best 3pt shooter and the perfect player to step in for Harris and Barton.

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[Catchall]

MPJ is much better than Clarkson.

No he's not. He's basically a rookie who shoots off a spot-up or a dribble or two to his left. The rest is cutting and rebounds. If MPJ outscores Clarkson in this series, the Jazz are in serious trouble. The Jazz can put Royce on him if his scoring becomes a problem.

You're asking a rookie, who has started 8 games and averages 9 pts, to suddenly step up and become a 20 ppg scorer in the playoffs against a top-10 defense that's game-planning for him. It's fair to say that's improbable. Maybe he goes off in a game or two.

I think MPJ will basically replace Will Barton's hot-and-cold shooting, but he'll then get attacked in pick-and-roll on the other end.

Porter is averaging 20 points a game when given starters minutes which he will receive. Also it is hard to game plan Porter when your game plan has to focus on Jokic who is capable of picking teams apart as a scorer and passer. They guy is a nightmare matchup. Also don't sleep on PJ Dozier making an impact for the nigs in this series of Harris and Barton can't go. Unfortunately they really shot themselves in the foot with the Malik Beasley trade. He was there best 3pt shooter and the perfect player to step in for Harris and Barton.

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Lets see what MPJ can do in a playoff series with the Jazz making adjustments for him and for the Nuggets in general. He shot 7/18 and 1/8 from 3pt against the Jazz in the bubble game. Joe Ingles took the assignment for the most part.

Even if he scores, he puts a second non-defender on the floor next to Jamal Murray, which the Jazz can exploit.

I agree with you about Malik Beasley. I never understood that trade for the Nuggets.

[KqWIN]

Regardless of how you stack up the players individually, the Jazz should have a big advantage with the starting units. The Jazz starters have played well all year with the exception of the all ballhog lineup (Gobert-Bogey-Ingles-Mitchell-Conley).

[El Hespiritu]

Aiyä!

I might be roaming around for a while. I read you from time to time but I barely was writing aside the Black Troll Suns threads.
Still a warm place in my heart reserved for this franchise.

Bit pissed off about seeding: I like Denver Nuggets troll counter-culturality ("Small-Ball?? Over Our Dead Bodies!!").

I enjoy The Joker's game and I'm deeply in love with Bol Bol since High School. I've been arguing for years with Spanish fans who were saying Bol Bol needs to learn play C or go to China while I always sustained he's nothing but a Guard and deal with it.

I don't really like the idea any of both teams getting out but you can't support two opposite teams at the same time so I made my choice.

I'll be happy if you get this.
I know The Golden Boy Ricky Rubio will be as well.

[Catchall]

If the Jazz set their offense to let Mitchell hunt his matchups, he could average 30+ ppg for this series. As soon as he gets switched off of Torey Craig I don't see who on the Nuggets is going to stay in front of him. Maybe the Nuggets try Jerami Grant on him?

[KqWIN]

I don't think the Jazz should run their offense through Mitchell. Craig has whooped his ass every time they've played, and beating this DEN defense requires good decision making. Even if he beats Craig, DEN is a team that sends help and that requires Mitchell to make the right decisions which he's just not good enough at. The reason why we lost the most recent matchup is because Mitchell was horrific against Craig down the stretch. Before the last second heroics Mitchell was plain awful and it was a tax on the team every time he touched the ball. I trust Ingles and Conley much more to make the right decision. I want to see a heavy dosage of Ingles+Gobert PnR especially if Porter is guarding Ingles.

If Mitchell takes this matchup personally and tries to be superman he could fail miserably again and we will lose again. He will also escape all blame like the last two HOU series because it will 100% go against Gobert. Just hoping we play team basketball.

[El Hespiritu]

DEN isn't great at all playing pick up defense. Without Gharris and Barton it just doesn't work.
But when they go zone with bigger lineups, they are intriguing.

Tried from time to time at The Bubble and looked raw and hesitant... they had no practice sessions enough to shape it.

I dont know if Mike The MaloOne gave up about that.

If they can eventually conoct a more or less functional zone defense, that could be a pain in the ass for Utah (hardly the greatest 3p team ever).

If they don't, I think Jazz has a good chance.

Unless The Joker and Murray gets on fire during the serie, of course.

In that case it's just done whatever Snyder tries.
I don't know about stats but my sensation is you're playing your worst defense in last four years or so.