https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29664827/next-moves-suns-big-decisions-draft-free-agencyGreat Job by Sabrestar for the link. And I apologize ahead of time for the excessive length of the article as well! But Enjoy k guys!
ESPN+
EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
Next moves for the Suns:
Big decisions in the draft and free agency
play
Bubble Suns improve to 8-0 with win vs. Mavs (1:57)
2:23 PM MT
Bobby Marks
The Phoenix Suns have made news for all the wrong reasons the past five years: four coaching changes, front-office turnover, missed opportunities in the draft and endless appearances in the lottery.
But now the Suns appear on the verge of ending a playoff drought that is at 10 years and counting. Led by All-Star shooting guard Devin Booker, the Suns made a hard challenge for a West playoff spot in the NBA's Florida restart, going 8-0 before being barely eliminated.
Let's take a look at the decisions Phoenix will face in the offseason, starting with their own free agents.
Note: The financials in here are based on the salary cap and luxury tax holding at the 2019-20 levels, As expected.
Cap flexibility vs. retaining their free agents
The Suns' salary cap situation this offseason is fluid.
Phoenix can choose the known: Dario Saric, Aron Baynes and Frank Kaminsky. Or it can choose the unknown: potential cap space.
The unknown is filled with more uncertainty than usual because of the unusual nature of the NBA's current financial situation. Before the NBA hiatus, Phoenix was projected to have up to $23 million in cap room without bringing back Saric, Kaminsky and Baynes. That number could now decrease to $17 million if the 2020-21 cap comes in at $109 million (the same as in 2019-20).
Here are the options with their own players this offseason:
Dario Saric
Saric started 50 games before the season was halted. He moved to the bench in Florida, but that was because head coach Monty Williams experimented with a small-ball lineup. The move proved beneficial to the Suns, and Saric appeared to be comfortable as a sixth man, scoring 14.8 points a game and improving his shooting (57.4% field goals, 52.4% 3s, 87.9% free throws).
The Suns will tender Saric a $5.1 million qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent. He also has a $10.4 million hold against the Suns cap. If the hold is released, making him an unrestricted free agent, the Suns would have only the $9.3 million midlevel exception to sign his replacement.
The list of free-agent power forwards includes Serge Ibaka (mostly a center now), Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green (if he declines his player option), the Morris twins (the Suns have already gone that route), Marvin Williams, Patrick Patterson, Carmelo Anthony and Jeff Green.
Considering that the pool of free agents is average at best and the cap is likely to decrease, the Suns should consider a two-year deal for Saric that includes overpaying him in Year 1 but making Year 2 a team option. For instance, a two-year, $26 million contract of that type would allow the Suns to evaluate Saric for another season while also creating flexibility for next summer.
Aron Baynes
The veteran provided a safety net early in the season when Deandre Ayton served a 25-game suspension. In the 28 games he started (including three in March), Baynes averaged 26 minutes, 14 points and 7 rebounds per game, with 49% shooting from the field and 37.5% from 3.
However, the workload did take a toll on his body, as he missed 19 games with assorted injures.
As with Saric, the Suns could give Baynes a two-year, $24 million contract that overpays him in Year 1 and has a team option for Year 2.
If the Suns do not sign Baynes, they will have the $9.3 million midlevel, $3.6 million biannual or minimum exception to find a backup to Ayton.
The free agent backup centers include Mason Plumlee, Christian Wood, Nerlens Noel, Bismack Biyombo and Jahlil Okafor.
Frank Kaminsky
Before he missed 33 games with a stress fracture in his right knee, Kaminsky was averaging 21.7 minutes, 10.6 points, 45.3% from the field, 33.3% from 3 and 4.8 rebounds. His 34 games all came in a sixth-man type of role.
When he returned in July, Kaminsky struggled -- seeing his minutes decrease to 8.5 per game, shooting 39.3% from the field and averaging only 3.7 points.
The Suns would have all three exceptions (midlevel, biannual and minimum) available if the option is declined.
Ricky Rubio
The Suns' starting point guard is not a free agent, but keep an eye on his future. One direction that Phoenix should look into is moving the veteran to another team -- perhaps a team like the Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks are projected to have $40 million in room, but with an average free agent class to chase. Would the veteran Rubio and the $17.0 and $17.8 million remaining on his deal, plus a draft asset (a lottery protected first), entice the Hawks to use cap space? Atlanta is in need of a veteran point guard to both back up and complement All-Star Trae Young.
For Phoenix, moving off on Rubio could potentially open up $20 million in cap space -- enough to pursue Fred VanVleet of the Toronto Raptors.
The expiring contract of Kelly Oubre Jr.
The failure to negotiate a long-term contract with Oubre in 2019 has now left the front office to ask themselves this question: Is Oubre part of the future in Phoenix?
On paper, that answer is a resounding "yes" considering that Oubre is coming off a season where he averaged a career-high 18.5 points, plays a position of need and is still only 24 years old. However, there are multiple reasons why the Suns are faced with a tough decision on what direction they go with their starting forward:
- Oubre's $14.3 million expiring contract will see him become a free agent in 2021. He is not eligible for a contract extension because he signed a two-year contract
- Surgery on his right knee in March ended his 2019-20 season prematurely.
- His defensive real-plus minus ranks no. 84 among all small forwards.
- The development of Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson creates positional redundancy.
Unlike in 2019 when the Suns took advantage of Oubre's restricted free-agent status, that will not be the case next year, when the forward will have the right to choose his next team without any restrictions. Nearly half of the NBA is projected to have cap flexibility in the summer of 2021, and Phoenix has to find a comfort level for a starting salary that could approach $20 million per season (comparable to his $21.5 million cap hold).
Also, Bridges and former No. 1 pick Ayton are eligible for rookie extensions in 2021, with their first year salary starting the following year.
[img]Phoenix's Projected Cap Sheet
PLAYER 2020-21 SALARY
1. Devin Booker $29,467,800
2. Ricky Rubio $17,000,000
3. Kelly Oubre Jr. $14,375,000
4. Deandre Ayton $10,018,200
5. Mikal Bridges $4,359,000
6. Cameron Johnson $4,235,160
7. Ty Jerome $2,303,040
8. Jalen Lecque $1,517,981
9. Frank Kaminsky (team option) $5,005,350
10. Cameron Payne (team option) $1,977,011
11. Cheick Diallo (team option) $1,824,003
12. Elie Okobo (non-guaranteed) $1,663,861
13. Dario Saric 1 (free agent hold) $10,445,958
14. Aron Baynes 2 (free agent hold) $10,361,232
15. Jevon Carter 3 (free agent hold) $1,907,576
16. Tariq Owens 4 (free agent hold) $1,523,320
17. First-rounder (own) (first-round hold) $4,250,160
Total $122.2 million
Projected salary cap $109.1 million
1. Restricted Bird
2. Bird
3. Restricted early-bird
4. Restricted non-bird
5. Restricted Bird[/img]
The resources available to build the roster
The draft: likely top-10 pick
Own free agents: Saric and Baynes
Possible cap space up to $20 million
Exceptions: $9.3 million midlevel, $3.6 million biannual and minimum
$5.6 million to send out and $4.5 million to receive in a trade
Phoenix Projected Depth Chart
PGSGSFPFCR. RubioD. BookerM. BridgesK. Oubre Jr.D. AytonC. Payne (1)T. JeromeC. JohnsonF. Kaminsky (T)C. Diallo (T)E. Okobo (1)J. Lecque1 = Non/partially guaranteedT = Team option
Dates to watch
Restricted free agent Saric reached starter criteria in his contract this season when he started more than 41 games. As a result, the Suns have until Oct. 17 to tender Saric a $5.1 million qualifying offer.
Former Memphis second-round pick Jevon Carter is also a free agent, and the Suns have the right to tag the guard with the restricted label. Because Carter is on a non-rookie scale contract (he signed for two years at the minimum exception), the qualifying offer is $1.9 million.
After averaging 22 minutes in the month of Oct., Carter saw his role become inconsistent during the season.
However, in the eight seeding games in Florida, Carter averaged 23.9 minutes and 7.0 points. He had his best game of the season in a win against the Miami Heat: 20 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists.
The Suns also have a Oct. 17 decision on the team options of Kaminsky ($5.0 million) and Cheick Diallo ($1.8 million). Diallo has averaged only 10.2 minutes this season but scored double-digit points seven times. His best stretch of games came in late November into December when he scored 22, 17 and 16 points. Because the two players combined to earn $6.8 million and provide bench depth, the options for both should be exercised.
After bouncing around the league (on three teams since 2015-16), former lottery pick Cameron Payne seems to have found a home in Phoenix. Signed during the transaction window in late June, Payne flourished in Florida, averaging 10.9 points while shooting 48.5% from the field and 51.7% from 3.
The Suns have until Oct. 17 to exercise his $1.97 million team option. However, unlike the Diallo and Kaminsky contracts that would become guaranteed, only $25,009 will become protected.
The Suns have until Oct. 28 (this date is tentative) to guarantee the $1.66 million contract of former second-round pick Elie Okobo.
In 55 games this season (with three starts), the guard averaged 4.0 points in 13.1 minutes and shot 35.2% from 3.
Restrictions
Kaminsky, Diallo and Payne cannot be traded until their team option is exercised.
For cap purposes, Okobo would count for $0 in outgoing salary in a trade. The contract would count for the full amount of $1.66 million if guaranteed.
As part of the T.J. Warren trade to the Indiana Pacers, the Suns received $1.1 million. Up until Oct. 19, they are only allowed to receive up to $4.5 million more.
Extension candidates
Okobo is the lone Suns player that is extension eligible.
The draft assets
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Phoenix selecting in June:
No. 10 (own): Killian Hayes | PG | Ulm
From the Josh Jackson trade to Memphis, the Suns do not have a second-round pick this season.
The Suns own all their future first-round picks.
