Saberestar wrote:I am interested to know why do you think that Killian Hayes is a top player in this draft.
I have seen some footage from him and I think he is pretty similar to Elie Okobo. A couple inches taller and probably a better passer, but I am not seeing a player worthy of #1 in the draft....I am probably missing something.
Thanks for asking. Admittedly he is a player I get pretty excited about in comparison to the rest of the class, and rank him higher than the general consensus. It comes down to a few things with Killian:
1. Weak draft class - More like a mid lottery pick in a normal draft. Last year (weakish class) I would have had him 4th behind Zion/Ja/RJ. In 2018 (very strong class) he likely would have been 8 or 9 for me. Probably no superstar outcome for Killian but compared to the rest of the class he has my favorite mix of current skills + potential + projectable fit in an nba style system. Nobody jumps off the page as being too good to pass up Killian for. I have LaMelo in the same tier but I worry about his defense, propensity for chucking, and coachability.
2. Playmaking/offense - behind only LaMelo (IMO) in terms of creativity in passing and playmaking for others. The off the dribble passing is fantastic. He'll be great in the pick and roll or pick and pop. The tape speaks for itself on this one. He needs to cut back on turnovers but I don't get overly concerned with TOs for young lead guards as it comes with the territory. As far as individual playmaking he has a great handle, a floater, a step back 3, size to bully smaller guards... basically everything you would want a lead ball handler to possess in a scoring package. It hasn’t all clicked on his 3pt shooting yet, but as he enters the NBA and plays more off ball I think his spot up shooting and cutting will become highly efficient (especially if he is playing off of an elite scoring threat like Booker). His free throw shooting percentages are great - 88% on 4 attempts (wish this were higher) per game obviously indicates a good stroke and he’s a great finisher inside the paint and mid range.
3. Defense - one of, if not the best overall guard defender in this class. His combination of team defense instincts and on ball lockdown potential are really special. I don't think he'll be quite as good as Dejounte Murray on defense, but he can have that kind of impact (they also have similar frames and pre-nba steal/block rates). He’s going to be able to switch onto any guard in the league and not be picked on.
4. Should play well on and off ball which I worry about for a guy like LaMelo.
5. Physical tools - huge size as a PG at 6’5 with a good wingspan. Body looks like it has a lot of room to develop through NBA strength and conditioning. Not a top flight athlete but not really lacking in that category either. Compare to Okobo who was always more of a SG in a PG body (who was *generously* listed a 6’3) and had a body that was already very physically mature and developed coming into the league.
6. Age - one of the youngest prospects. In comparison to Okobo he’s about 2 years younger coming into the draft and making a bigger impact in a similarly competitive European league. All this being said, Okobo has been a disappointment but there was real reason to be excited about him as a prospect. I saw Okobo topping out as a 6th man who could heat up from 3 and be a spot starter. With Killian I would be very surprised if he isn’t a starting guard in the near future. Okobo has always been more of a "run the offense" type of guy at best, whereas Killian is a "create the offense" guy who clearly has a much higher ceiling on the defensive end too.
As a high level comp I could see a mix of DeJounte Murray and D’angelo Russell. SGA is another strong comp. A lower level comp would be Satoransky. Kevin O’Connor comps to Ginobili which makes some sense as a big, creative guard. The Suns fit is also awesome - learn behind Rubio for 1 or 2 year. He can both insulate Booker on defense and also take the reins on offense. He’s actually very similar to Rubio in that way.
He's an absolute load. The only problem with him is his lack of floor spacing, As in no three point shot whatsoever, And also his free throw percentage at 
But IF we were to draft him just with the intent of being a wrecking ball in the paint, And to wear down and steamroll opposing defenses and draw tons of fouls, Then sign me up! 
Definitely another James Jones type of high IQ average athleticism, But still pretty high potential prospect.