Why is it time to move on from Collins?

[HoopsFanAZ]

Collins is our PF this year, next year, and the year after that. Sometime on or before the 2021 off-season, he will be signed to a long term contract. He has fulfilled all expectations, other than health, and Blazers are delighted with what he has produced when he has played. The only way this changes is if Blazers get extraordinarily lucky in the draft, but it's much more likely Blazers never even draft a player at Zach's position.

What is a pipedream? It's a pipedream that Blazers will trade CJ, Lillard, Nurkic, or Collins. These players are the foundation of our team the next 4 years if Nurk can be re-signed 2022. Melo, Trent, Simons, and Little are highly valued assets that are unlikely to leave Blazers as long as Blazers have any say. So, another pipedream is any of these ridiculous concocted trades that have the Blazers giving up valued assets in exchange for duds from other teams.

Your opinion is straightforward, definite, and succinct. It has the added benefit of being what's likely to happen.
8 players who are valued with 7 under contract already for next year. And Hood likely to opt in and join in during the season (9).
With draft picks (10-11) and guys who get another shot (Gabriel 12), we're down to 3-ish players. [I'm not counting Ariza or Whiteside as returning nor going elsewhere.]

[zzaj]

I liked Zach as the safe pick in 2017, his advanced numbers were better than anybody at the position and showed promise as a two-way, steady player. I still think that holds true.

That being said, if I was Olshey I'd be working on Lillard's blessing to ship CJ, Collins and a 1st for the best SF possible. Something like a Jimmy Butler, Bojan, Hayward. Keep Melo at PF, since he seems to have found a role there.

Lillard
Trent Jr.
Butler
Melo
Nurkic

Bogs is going to be a free agent this summer, as I doubt the Kings will lift the QO. He'd be a pretty good fit. Dont think you'll need to ship CJ. Trade Zach + #16 + Ant if needed and you could get a good return. Ariza will be back, Hood should be back. Thats extra bodies on the wing. Nas is developing.

By the way, the Bulls have a lot of young guys, and you can bet a lot of them become available. I'd give them a call first. Lauri, WCjr, Hutchinson, etc. Kick the tires a bit there.

Could a S&T of Bojan be worked out? That might be a possibility.

It'd be interesting to try and work out Bogdanovich + Holmes for Collins + Ant + future 1st. I basically see Bogdanovich as Ant's ceiling and Holmes as Collins ceiling (minus 3pt shooting). Seems light on Sac's part, but...

Lillard/Bogdanovich
CJ/Bogdanovich
Trent Jr./Little/Hood
Melo/Holmes
Nurkic/Holmes

Still weak at SF, but a Lillard/CJ/Bogs/Trent 4 guard rotation would be the best the Blazers have had for a very long time.

[d-train]

Collins is our PF this year, next year, and the year after that. Sometime on or before the 2021 off-season, he will be signed to a long term contract. He has fulfilled all expectations, other than health, and Blazers are delighted with what he has produced when he has played. The only way this changes is if Blazers get extraordinarily lucky in the draft, but it's much more likely Blazers never even draft a player at Zach's position.

What is a pipedream? It's a pipedream that Blazers will trade CJ, Lillard, Nurkic, or Collins. These players are the foundation of our team the next 4 years if Nurk can be re-signed 2022. Melo, Trent, Simons, and Little are highly valued assets that are unlikely to leave Blazers as long as Blazers have any say. So, another pipedream is any of these ridiculous concocted trades that have the Blazers giving up valued assets in exchange for duds from other teams.

Your opinion is straightforward, definite, and succinct. It has the added benefit of being what's likely to happen.
8 players who are valued with 7 under contract already for next year. And Hood likely to opt in and join in during the season (9).
With draft picks (10-11) and guys who get another shot (Gabriel 12), we're down to 3-ish players. [I'm not counting Ariza or Whiteside as returning nor going elsewhere.]

Good catch, I forgot about Hood and should have included him.

[d-train]

Rather than discussing trade scenarios that make the Blazers worse, a better discussion would be whether (or not) Trent can stay ahead of Simons and Little in the rotation. The whole lineup can be shuffled based on need. Trent's primary asset is knocking down open 3 point shots created by the action of Lillard, CJ, Nurk, and Melo. How will the needs change with the addition of Hood and the possibility that Simons simplifies his game into filling the same role as Trent does? Little might never be the 3-point shooter that Trent, Hood, and Simons are, but he is bigger, tougher, and has the potential to step up as a defender. There is also the slight chance of unexpected production from our 2020 1st round pick, or the likes of Gabriel, or even Hoard.

I personally like the possibility of Simons or Little making much bigger contributions.

[PerkinsFor3]

Trent is the same age as Simons, yet has already shown way more progression. Its silly to state that Trents primary value is that of knocking down threes. He's basically the only plus defender we have right now, this side of Nurk. He's a pest on defense.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Trent is the same age as Simons, yet has already shown way more progression. Its silly to state that Trents primary value is that of knocking down threes. He's basically the only plus defender we have right now, this side of Nurk. He's a pest on defense.

All comments about Trent are pretty spot on.
And without intent to be confrontational ...

Trent was more developed physically as a draftee and has a body type that will take on muscle. Simons is lean. It takes time. Trent has Papa Trent as a kid around the Blazers and others and went to Duke for a year and Coach K. Simons went to a basketball prep school in Florida instead of heading to Louisville (IIRC). Not the same thing at all.

From the get-go, these two are on different timelines ... though not THAT many seasons apart. Trent has maximized his return of two years in the pros. Simons has made strides, but he's behind Trent in the growth curve of his game. Simons has to catch up.

Trent can work on his handles and begin a back to the basket, post-up game ala Wesley Matthews, though he'll need to get stronger and be able to back guys down. Carmelo is a great example for him to follow. Hood, too.

Simons needs to learn from the guards on O ... and Hood, Ariza, and Trent on D. Maybe get some attitude from Collins.

[d-train]

Trent is the same age as Simons, yet has already shown way more progression.

I disagree. Simons has progressed more. I also believe Simons is a better shooter. Trent has found a role more useful to the Blazers need, and has earned the confidence of Stotts that he will play within that role. Simons has the ability to play the same role Trent is playing and has the ability to do more.

Its silly to state that Trents primary value is that of knocking down threes. He's basically the only plus defender we have right now, this side of Nurk. He's a pest on defense.

No it isn't silly, unless you are amused by the truth. He has done a good job on defense, but his defense isn't as good as CJ's or Lillard's. It's nice that Trent's defense is good enough that Blazers don't need to spend CJ's or Lillard's energy on defense. It's also great that when Trent is failing on defense like he did against LeVert that Blazers can go to CJ and slow LeVert down.

[PerkinsFor3]

"Trents defense is not as good as CJ's" > what?

[DusterBuster]

I definitely worry about Zach's overall health. Seems like he gets a lot of little injuries

[JasonStern]

Read on Twitter

https://www.healthline.com/health/medial-malleolus-fracture#recovery

[zzaj]

Read on Twitter

https://www.healthline.com/health/medial-malleolus-fracture#recovery

I’ll ask again in earnest...

Can anybody come up with the last time the Blazers were 100% healthy for a playoof series?

[zzaj]

Also, that is a massive blow for Collins’ career. To basically be out an entire year and then have to be off the court for another 4-6 months if he has surgery, is huge for him and the Blazers.

[Wizenheimer]

is "stress reaction" the same as a stress fracture?

[Wizenheimer]

I’ll ask again in earnest...

Can anybody come up with the last time the Blazers were 100% healthy for a playoof series?

1977?

maybe a couple of those Drexler teams because no group of core players was a durable as that group

[Wizenheimer]

Read on Twitter

[Matt800]

is "stress reaction" the same as a stress fracture?

I think not really. Stress reaction to my understanding is like an overuse issue where stress creates inflammation. Stress fracture is where that is severe enough that there are fractures in the bone rather than just inflammation. So a reaction could lead to fractures if it is allowed to continue. I'm not sure but I think there is a lot of scale to it. I've had stress fractures from running and it was not great but I didn't need surgeries. But mine were in the metatarsals rather than the malleoli.

[GEE]

Thanks for the clear explanation Matt800. Sounds like an early catch, that would have kept him out 6-8 weeks if it had led to a fracture, or break in the bone. But now, there's no telling how long he'll be out. Hopefully it's just a few days for the swelling to come down, with no damage done. Maybe Nike can make him some magic shoes.

[zzaj]

is "stress reaction" the same as a stress fracture?

I think not really. Stress reaction to my understanding is like an overuse issue where stress creates inflammation. Stress fracture is where that is severe enough that there are fractures in the bone rather than just inflammation. So a reaction could lead to fractures if it is allowed to continue. I'm not sure but I think there is a lot of scale to it. I've had stress fractures from running and it was not great but I didn't need surgeries. But mine were in the metatarsals rather than the malleoli.

Ohh! My brain read the tweet as "stress fracture"...that's much better news if there is no actual fracture in Collins' ankle!

[Matt800]

is "stress reaction" the same as a stress fracture?

I think not really. Stress reaction to my understanding is like an overuse issue where stress creates inflammation. Stress fracture is where that is severe enough that there are fractures in the bone rather than just inflammation. So a reaction could lead to fractures if it is allowed to continue. I'm not sure but I think there is a lot of scale to it. I've had stress fractures from running and it was not great but I didn't need surgeries. But mine were in the metatarsals rather than the malleoli.

Ohh! My brain read the tweet as "stress fracture"...that's much better news if there is no actual fracture in Collins' ankle!

Yeah I don't know how bad Zach's stress reaction is. Stress reactions are like a bone bruising from repetitive impact. So in my understanding, either you don't use it and let it rest, or you try to manage it by only partially working out and competing, which then probably means you are not in great shape, and also are slowly making it worse, or at least slowing its healing. I think in some cases where it is from doing more than you are in shape for, you can lower your workout load and it goes away. Like runners who get shin splints, can sometimes do a bit of physical therapy and lower their impact by running in sand or grass, and continue on just fine. Sometimes it is even as simple as getting new shoes.

Just reading up on malleoli stress fractures, it sounds like there is an operative procedure that can speed up healing, but in the study I read the complication rate was like 13% for those who did. I don't think they were serious complications, but just things that elongated the healing process. My understanding is people recover either way in most cases, but some people might get a surgery in hopes that it will help them recover faster. If Zach's is minor he might be fine in a week, or it might take several weeks, I don't really know.

[GEE]

I think the Fakers may have game planned for Collins to be playing, and were caught off guard by Wenyen. Hopefully he's back soon, cause I think we're really gonna need him.

Also, I don't think it would be such a bad idea if we drafted a PF. That way, if Collins doesn't work out (which I very much doubt) we'll have a player that's already developing. Plus, I am biased, because I now would like to draft Jalen Smith out of Maryland. Kids middle name is Rasheed. Love his game.