2020 NBA Draft Prospect Watch - Revised Poll

[WeekapaugGroove]

Jones seems to prioritize maturity, immediate impact, shooting, and defense, in roughly that order. He got at least three of those things last year with each of his main acquisitions (Rubio, Cam, Saric, and Baynes), and he tried for it with Jerome. Only in the second round did he go for raw athleticism and upside with Lecque.

I feel like that makes Haliburton and Vassell the most Jonesy picks, and then probably Toppin, Avdija, and Okongwu. I think he proved last year he's also willing to stick to those guns and pass on a more highly touted guy like Edwards, Ball, or Wiseman. Interviews and such could change this picture a lot, as I'm mostly using age as a very imperfect proxy for maturity here. I have no idea how Hayes would fit into this, as he is very young but has pro basketball experience already, but he's high on my own board. Not sure how Okoro fits into this schema either but he'd be the other guy in my personal top 10.

I'm personally not super high on Toppin (too one-sided), Ball (too much of a wildcard), or Wiseman (not a great fit), so ideally I hope we get the 4th pick and those three guys go 1-3 so we can have our pick of all the rest. But even if we stay at #10, those three should go before our pick, so we will be able to get one of the other 7 guys I've named here. So wth here's my personal board:

Hope they go before us: Ball, Wiseman, Toppin
Would be thrilled: Haliburton, Okongwu, Hayes
Would be very pleased: Avdija, Edwards, Vassell
Would be fine with: Okoro (and would also put Toppin and Ball here)

Very good summary. I'd add that Jones focus has seemed to be 100% about building around fit with Booker and Ayton. Which makes sense considering Jones was a role player who played with a bunch of stars so probably values that team fit more than most. (a stark contrast to McD who seemed to NEVER build a roster that made sense).

I also agree that Haliburton and Vassell really seem like his type.

With all that said I'm a little cautious to make too many assumptions based off only one draft. Who knows maybe Jones doesn't see much playing time for a rookie next year so would be willing to gamble on a raw project. If that's the case I'd keep an eye on some of the PGs because that would be the ideal development spot especially now that you could go into the year with Payne as the backup if the rookie couldn't beat him out.

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[bwgood77]

I think if started doing a lot of yoga and worked on his mobility, it would help him a lot. He looks very stiff out there at times. If he worked on that, I could see that helping his perimeter defense a ton. He's athletic enough that he should be able to improve in that area and if he could cover wings competently, he could start at the 4 alongside Ayton no problem. If not, a great 6th man would be perfectly okay as well.

I think he will work at it. Even without that it is interesting to me so many rank him lower than really raw prospects with pretty high bust potential. Obi plays fierce with super athleticisim, offensive bbiq, work ethic and has an array of offensive skills we haven't seen in a PF prospect since I can remember. He is a perfect offensive 4 in today's game...and it's not like he isn't active defensively either. He is an energy guy, and gets blocks and steals. While that isn't a good judge of how good someone is on defense, and he certainly has the weakness staying in front of guys due to his stance, etc, that stuff is coachable, and I think is coachable and obviously very hungry to keep getting better. He's not a guy that went through the motions because he was a high prospect like a lot of top prospects and had to work very hard to get where he is, not getting many scholarships and going to Dayton, etc.

I guess I can probably stop talking about him soon though, since we likely end up at 10, or possibly 11. And I'd ve very happy with Vassell or Hayes at one of those spots if they make it there. I don't necessarily expect either to be there, but there is a chance.

Of course after we talk about the draft for probably a couple more entire threads before draft day we will probably take someone completely out of left field or sell/trade our pick.

If he simply can't move well enough to guard 4s which in todays NBA are basically wings from years past it won't matter how much he tries.

Now as a rim running scoring 5 he might be a lethal weapon.

He's a comp, is he like a little better version of Julius Randle?

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No, coming out Julius Randle had no range and was far less efficient as a scorer. Even shooting 3 3s a game, Obi's FG% is over 63% (Randle was 50% without even shooting 3s), and Toppin's TS% is 68.4% and higher than basically any prospect in a while (though Clarke and Zion were a tad higher but couldn't shoot 3s nearly at that rate). He averages 50% more assists than Randle did, 50% more blocks, almost twice as many steals, and rates better in defensive metrics. He's far more athletic than Randle.

It's not like Toppin isn't mobile. He is...and he is really athletic. It's more technique. But he's still already better defensively than guys like Randle and Bagley were coming out. Way way better than a guy like John Collins when he was coming out. Most 4s do have some trouble guarding wings in small ball. The Indiana bigs for one.

In a way, but to obviously a lesser extent, it feels like not drafting a Nash or a Curry because of defense. Amare I guess is a better example...avoiding him because he isn't a very good defender. I could see ranking him outside of say the top 5 in a stacked draft, but certainly not this one. Seems very odd...like overanalysis and as people like to say "trying to get cute".

I will say I wasn't high on Bagley, Randle or Collins in drafts, as they were worse on defense than Toppin but also they didn't even come close to the offensive array of skills that Toppin has.

I think there is a good chance GS takes Toppin, as they are pretty savvy drafters, and if they do, that will be an even scarier offensive team.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I think he will work at it. Even without that it is interesting to me so many rank him lower than really raw prospects with pretty high bust potential. Obi plays fierce with super athleticisim, offensive bbiq, work ethic and has an array of offensive skills we haven't seen in a PF prospect since I can remember. He is a perfect offensive 4 in today's game...and it's not like he isn't active defensively either. He is an energy guy, and gets blocks and steals. While that isn't a good judge of how good someone is on defense, and he certainly has the weakness staying in front of guys due to his stance, etc, that stuff is coachable, and I think is coachable and obviously very hungry to keep getting better. He's not a guy that went through the motions because he was a high prospect like a lot of top prospects and had to work very hard to get where he is, not getting many scholarships and going to Dayton, etc.

I guess I can probably stop talking about him soon though, since we likely end up at 10, or possibly 11. And I'd ve very happy with Vassell or Hayes at one of those spots if they make it there. I don't necessarily expect either to be there, but there is a chance.

Of course after we talk about the draft for probably a couple more entire threads before draft day we will probably take someone completely out of left field or sell/trade our pick.

If he simply can't move well enough to guard 4s which in todays NBA are basically wings from years past it won't matter how much he tries.

Now as a rim running scoring 5 he might be a lethal weapon.

He's a comp, is he like a little better version of Julius Randle?

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No, coming out Julius Randle had no range and was far less efficient as a scorer. Even shooting 3 3s a game, Obi's FG% is over 63% (Randle was 50% without even shooting 3s), and Toppin's TS% is 68.4% and higher than basically any prospect in a while (though Clarke and Zion were a tad higher but couldn't shoot 3s nearly at that rate). He averages 50% more assists than Randle did, 50% more blocks, almost twice as many steals, and rates better in defensive metrics. He's far more athletic than Randle.

It's not like Toppin isn't mobile. He is...and he is really athletic. It's more technique. But he's still already better defensively than guys like Randle and Bagley were coming out. Way way better than a guy like John Collins when he was coming out. Most 4s do have some trouble guarding wings in small ball. The Indiana bigs for one.

In a way, but to obviously a lesser extent, it feels like not drafting a Nash or a Curry because of defense. Amare I guess is a better example...avoiding him because he isn't a very good defender. I could see ranking him outside of say the top 5 in a stacked draft, but certainly not this one. Seems very odd...like overanalysis and as people like to say "trying to get cute".

Good points. If the suns move up tomorrow I'm going to have to take a deeper look at Obi.

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[bwgood77]

CBS has us taking Saddiq Bey, with Vassell going 16th.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-nba-mock-draft-lamelo-ball-obi-toppin-and-anthony-edwards-in-top-three-of-final-pre-lottery-projection/

This one is a little older, and I remember reading some of the articles it references, but it talks about who different mocks have us taking....from Ball to Hayes to Nesmith to Toppin..

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nba/suns/2020/07/28/nba-mock-draft-phoenix-suns-pick-obi-toppin-next-amare-stoudemire/5523164002/

[suns12345]

What happened to Nico Mannion... he was supposed to be a top 5 pick when I checked late last year?

[bwgood77]

The strange thing is, some boards have him as high as number 1 / number 2 - while others have him falling to us at 10. The Ringer has him #1 on the big board, and then #11 on their mock draft.

Just goes to show that the draft is all over the place this year.

Yeah, that's just Kevin O'Connor. I don't see him too high on many mocks, but a few people have him ranked really high on personal big boards.

Among most draft people I follow he’s pretty consensus top 5 on a big board. You’ll generally see Ball/Edwards as the top 2 and then some combination of Hayes/Deni/Okongwu/Wiseman after that. I would be pretty shocked if Hayes fell to 10th on draft day despite the current projections.

Based on your research, do you have any in depth analysis or tape or point me towards any games to watch of him? I see Kevin O'Connor mentions he has shades of D'Lo, who I know you are a big fan of...and that he's good at the pick and roll, and potential as an off the dribble 3 pt shooter like Harden with stepbacks (to me, that's a little scary for a young player's focus to me this though), and a good frame to project to otentiallly be a good defender.

Then the minuses of being a limited athlete of burst and bounce, lack of advanced handle, not a good catch and shoot 3 pt shooter, and lapses on defense.

Of course with all these, he has him at #1 on his big board.

It's hard for me to judge guys I haven't seen much of and more have to go off of numbers, especially when those numbers are in the German league.

It's weird in his regular season games this past year, he shot under 22% from 4, with 5.25 ast and 3.45 turnovers but he improved in his Eurocup run, shooting 39% from 3, , and upping his ast to 6.2 per game and turnovers down to 3.3.

Solid FT shooter though, and young.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Killian-Hayes/Summary/108654

[bwgood77]

What happened to Nico Mannion... he was supposed to be a top 5 pick when I checked late last year?

He faded. He's a little small and has a pretty short wingspan. I never really wanted him, but he could fall further than maybe he should. One thing I always liked watching him, was his demeanor. He has a lot of confidence. And not the irrational confidence type. Like, I think he keeps his team calm and in control and can be clutch. I won't be surprised if he ends up a solid backup somewhere. Though I won't be surprised if he ends up doing nothing.

[suns12345]

What happened to Nico Mannion... he was supposed to be a top 5 pick when I checked late last year?

He faded. He's a little small and has a pretty short wingspan. I never really wanted him, but he could fall further than maybe he should. One thing I always liked watching him, was his demeanor. He has a lot of confidence. And not the irrational confidence type. Like, I think he keeps his team calm and in control and can be clutch. I won't be surprised if he ends up a solid backup somewhere. Though I won't be surprised if he ends up doing nothing.

Yeh fair enough. I just remember him having a lot of hype out of HS. I don't follow the prospects much though. Thanks for the info BW.

[Wilber85]

I have this feeling the Suns are going to get Lamelo Ball. He will be 6th man and learn from Rubio

[Crives]

I am just expecting the unexpected.
Last year 6 for 11+ Saric came out of nowhere.

[Blonde]

Yeah, that's just Kevin O'Connor. I don't see him too high on many mocks, but a few people have him ranked really high on personal big boards.

Among most draft people I follow he’s pretty consensus top 5 on a big board. You’ll generally see Ball/Edwards as the top 2 and then some combination of Hayes/Deni/Okongwu/Wiseman after that. I would be pretty shocked if Hayes fell to 10th on draft day despite the current projections.

Based on your research, do you have any in depth analysis or tape or point me towards any games to watch of him? I see Kevin O'Connor mentions he has shades of D'Lo, who I know you are a big fan of...and that he's good at the pick and roll, and potential as an off the dribble 3 pt shooter like Harden with stepbacks (to me, that's a little scary for a young player's focus to me this though), and a good frame to project to otentiallly be a good defender.

Then the minuses of being a limited athlete of burst and bounce, lack of advanced handle, not a good catch and shoot 3 pt shooter, and lapses on defense.

Of course with all these, he has him at #1 on his big board.

It's hard for me to judge guys I haven't seen much of and more have to go off of numbers, especially when those numbers are in the German league.

It's weird in his regular season games this past year, he shot under 22% from 3, with 5.25 ast and 3.45 turnovers but he improved in his Eurocup run, shooting 39% from 3, , and upping his ast to 6.2 per game and turnovers down to 3.3.

Solid FT shooter though, and young.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Killian-Hayes/Summary/108654

Just to be clear, I was a big fan of adding D’Lo at that point in time when all we had to do was cut the garbage from our roster... but generally speaking I’m not a huge fan of his game - there are a lot of holes. I think Killian’s a wayyyy better defender and will be better off ball than Russell. Probably won’t be the same level scorer though. He also won’t come with the hype machine and future price tag of D’Lo. If Russell were paid appropriately he’d be thought of much higher around the league.

As far as tape, it’s mostly just youtube at this point. Full games are hard to come by for his recent play, which is a shame because he’s improved in so many areas.

I agree with your sentiment on Toppin. People are trying to outsmart themselves in the way they evaluate him. I don’t love the phoenix fit but I’d take him at 10 for sure.

[bwgood77]

Deni's stats:

https://basket.co.il/player.asp?PlayerId=11166&lang=en

His 3 pt % really seemed to be impacted when he played in Euroleague. Do you know why his %s are different here then in other places? This shows 38.7% from 3 in the Israeli league. Other places show 35.3%...however I do see two more games are listed in your league.

It looks like when he hit Euroleague his #s really suffered from 3, shooting 27.7%, though he only played 14 minutes a game, and only started 5 games in Euroleague according to this.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Deni-Avdija/Summary/116938

It appears tankathon is using his averages from both leagues for the year to get his stats. He did seem to struggle a bit against tougher competition, but then again, he didn't play a lot of minutes, so perhaps never got into any groove.

[ImNotMcDiSwear]

I am just expecting the unexpected.
Last year 6 for 11+ Saric came out of nowhere.

IDK... I suggested that precise trade weeks before the draft.

[Bogyo]

Why don't I see more talk on Precious? He is in our range, good, young athletic 4-5 (with that 7'2" wingspan), good rebounder, gets blocks and steals, gets to the line, shoots OK(ish). I wouldn't be shocked if we took him and developed in a bench role for a year, if Toppin is gone.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Why don't I see more talk on Precious? He is in our range, good, young athletic 4-5 (with that 7'2" wingspan), good rebounder, gets blocks and steals, gets to the line, shoots OK(ish). I wouldn't be shocked if we took him and developed in a bench role for a year, if Toppin is gone.

Great point man!
I really like him personally. I think it's just that given his current perimeter struggles, Especially from the free throw line and from three, Along with Jones proclivities towards shooters, His perimeter scoring issues might be putting people off!

But I also think his open court ability, Ballhandling, ability to actually guard all positions 1-5 due to his fluidity and speed, are definitely being severely overlooked. Admittedly, I have him 3rd on my BIG MAN board at/ after 10, Only behind 1- Jalen Smith/ and 2- Paul Reed. Again mainly due to his offensive game lacking! But if we traded back for additional assets ( maybe a veteran and two picks, IF he was still somehow on the board at 17 or later, I wouldn't hesitate to consider taking him, As I see him as a bigger, stronger, more athletic version of Jerami Grant.

In a trade back scenario, For my part, Somehow getting a combination Riller (1) or Terry (2) AND Achiuwa would still be a huge win in my book on draft night. Also, You'll probably notice that in quite a few of my excessively long and colorful ( font) creative trade posts, Achiuwa ( along with Reed) is mentioned quite a bit as an option.

[GoodBehavior]

Among most draft people I follow he’s pretty consensus top 5 on a big board. You’ll generally see Ball/Edwards as the top 2 and then some combination of Hayes/Deni/Okongwu/Wiseman after that. I would be pretty shocked if Hayes fell to 10th on draft day despite the current projections.

Based on your research, do you have any in depth analysis or tape or point me towards any games to watch of him? I see Kevin O'Connor mentions he has shades of D'Lo, who I know you are a big fan of...and that he's good at the pick and roll, and potential as an off the dribble 3 pt shooter like Harden with stepbacks (to me, that's a little scary for a young player's focus to me this though), and a good frame to project to otentiallly be a good defender.

Then the minuses of being a limited athlete of burst and bounce, lack of advanced handle, not a good catch and shoot 3 pt shooter, and lapses on defense.

Of course with all these, he has him at #1 on his big board.

It's hard for me to judge guys I haven't seen much of and more have to go off of numbers, especially when those numbers are in the German league.

It's weird in his regular season games this past year, he shot under 22% from 3, with 5.25 ast and 3.45 turnovers but he improved in his Eurocup run, shooting 39% from 3, , and upping his ast to 6.2 per game and turnovers down to 3.3.

Solid FT shooter though, and young.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Killian-Hayes/Summary/108654

Just to be clear, I was a big fan of adding D’Lo at that point in time when all we had to do was cut the garbage from our roster... but generally speaking I’m not a huge fan of his game - there are a lot of holes. I think Killian’s a wayyyy better defender and will be better off ball than Russell. Probably won’t be the same level scorer though. He also won’t come with the hype machine and future price tag of D’Lo. If Russell were paid appropriately he’d be thought of much higher around the league.

As far as tape, it’s mostly just youtube at this point. Full games are hard to come by for his recent play, which is a shame because he’s improved in so many areas.

I agree with your sentiment on Toppin. People are trying to outsmart themselves in the way they evaluate him. I don’t love the phoenix fit but I’d take him at 10 for sure.

The reason why people are down on Toppin is history. Offense-oriented power forward (and center) with less than stellar defense have been a graveyard of draft busts. Jabari Parker, Randle, Marvin Bagley, Okafor, Saric, Skal, etc. John Collins is the closest comp for Toppin, and one of the more successful of the bunch. And that "success" is very tempered. It's possible, but unlikely, that the Hawks will keep Collins with the deal for Capela. FWIW, Collins play a lot of center, while I don't think anyone really envisioning Toppin as a center. Collin's offensive output drops when he plays the 4.

Toppin's stats are off the charts, but from a skill set, I don't think he's as gifted as a Marvin Bagley or a Parker. I think his fans overrated his offensive skill set. His rebounding is pretty meh, especially at his age vs competition. His footwork and post ups are nothing to write about. His offensive repertoire isn't strong enough to offset the defensive concerns, like a STAT. But it's absolutely ideal for a sixth man role.

Toppin can go top 4 or he can fall in the draft. It depends on the team and their selection slot. Phoenix, Minnesota, Detroit, Knicks, Atlanta probably wont have him on their draft board.

[Slim Charless]

That's a really good comp and I agree on the 6th man thing too. Now I don't want that to be viewed as some slight on Toppin because a better shooting Harrell is a very useful player.

Obi isn't in my top 4 but I'd be completely cool with him at 10.

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I think if started doing a lot of yoga and worked on his mobility, it would help him a lot. He looks very stiff out there at times. If he worked on that, I could see that helping his perimeter defense a ton. He's athletic enough that he should be able to improve in that area and if he could cover wings competently, he could start at the 4 alongside Ayton no problem. If not, a great 6th man would be perfectly okay as well.

I think he will work at it. Even without that it is interesting to me so many rank him lower than really raw prospects with pretty high bust potential. Obi plays fierce with super athleticisim, offensive bbiq, work ethic and has an array of offensive skills we haven't seen in a PF prospect since I can remember. He is a perfect offensive 4 in today's game...and it's not like he isn't active defensively either. He is an energy guy, and gets blocks and steals. While that isn't a good judge of how good someone is on defense, and he certainly has the weakness staying in front of guys due to his stance, etc, that stuff is coachable, and I think he is highly coachable and obviously very hungry to keep getting better. He's not a guy that went through the motions because he was a high prospect like a lot of top prospects and had to work very hard to get where he is, not getting many scholarships and going to Dayton, etc.

I guess I can probably stop talking about him soon though, since we likely end up at 10, or possibly 11. And I'd ve very happy with Vassell or Hayes at one of those spots if they make it there. I don't necessarily expect either to be there, but there is a chance.

Of course after we talk about the draft for probably a couple more entire threads before draft day we will probably take someone completely out of left field or sell/trade our pick.

Couldn't agree more with the assessment of Toppin. I'd add that if Monty can continue to work on Ayton's defense then having someone like Toppin won't be that bad. I think Ayton (fully engaged) has DPOY potential easily. He's quicker then Gobert and larger then Ben Wallace/Dwight. If we get him there then we can afford to have someone like Obi. Plus, it's not like Obi won't be trying out there on defense, he will be.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Read on Twitter

?s=09

A couple really interesting points in here guys!

Top of Draft May Not Go as Expected

Rick Rycroft/Associated Press

The general belief all year had LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman as top-three overall favorites, with Obi Toppin, Deni Avdija, Onyeka Okongwu and Isaac Okoro mixed into a tier that either slightly overlaps or follows. But based from some scouts' takes I've heard over the past few weeks, mock drafts could start looking silly right from the top. 

I've heard Avdija being ranked higher than LaMelo. Wiseman graded as a late-lottery pick. Jalen Smith over Okongwu. Okoro being compared to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Patrick Williams mentioned as a sleeper to be the draft's top prospect. There are international scouts with Killian Hayes top five, and college scouts who "don't see it."

Opinions are all over the place. This year has all the ingredients for draft results that don't align with the narratives believed by media and fans throughout the season.  

The last draft with this much uncertainty and varying viewpoints was in 2013, when Anthony Bennett went first and Giannis Antetokounmpo went No. 15. Who goes where in 2020 will come down to the order and eye of the general manager at each pick. And each GM's eye could wind up seeing something different by October. 

Florida State's Patrick Williams, Potential Top-10 Riser Williams has quietly gained serious steam within NBA front offices. 
His name has come up multiple times in the sleeper-of-the-draft discussion.

One executive admitted to moving him into the top eight of his rankings, citing Williams being the draft's youngest NCAA prospect with "off-the-charts upside."

Another scout floated the idea that when we look back in a few years, we'll question how and why Williams wasn't a top pick more than any other prospect. 

He didn't generate national attention, averaging just 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds. But for a powerful 6'8", 225-pound 19-year-old, scouts have become enticed by his flashes of physical, athletic finishes, shot-making touch off the catch and dribble, pick-and-roll passing skills and defensive playmaking. Those particular flashes create a unique potential trajectory if they become routine plays for Williams. And considering he only turned 19 on August 6, it seems as if teams will be willing to bet on his development.

Israel's Deni Avdija Solidifying Top-5 Status ☰

Matt Stamey/Associated Press2020 NBA Draft Lottery Buzz: The Mystery Begins Right at the Top

JONATHAN WASSERMAN
AUGUST 20, 2020

The arrival of the NBA draft lottery Thursday night has sparked teams to resume putting their boards together and dig for more intelligence. 

Bleacher Report has had its ear on the league's draft conversations all season, and now things are starting to heat up again after a short layoff.

Here is some of the buzz we've heard pertaining to what scouts are thinking as teams take their draft preparation a step further.

         

Top of Draft May Not Go as Expected

Rick Rycroft/Associated Press

The general belief all year had LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman as top-three overall favorites, with Obi Toppin, Deni Avdija, Onyeka Okongwu and Isaac Okoro mixed into a tier that either slightly overlaps or follows. But based from some scouts' takes I've heard over the past few weeks, mock drafts could start looking silly right from the top. 


I've heard Avdija being ranked higher than LaMelo. Wiseman graded as a late-lottery pick. Jalen Smith over Okongwu. Okoro being compared to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Patrick Williams mentioned as a sleeper to be the draft's top prospect. There are international scouts with Killian Hayes top five, and college scouts who "don't see it."

Opinions are all over the place. This year has all the ingredients for draft results that don't align with the narratives believed by media and fans throughout the season.  

The last draft with this much uncertainty and varying viewpoints was in 2013, when Anthony Bennett went first and Giannis Antetokounmpo went No. 15. Who goes where in 2020 will come down to the order and eye of the general manager at each pick. And each GM's eye could wind up seeing something different by October. 

         

Florida State's Patrick Williams, Potential Top-10 Riser

Matt Stamey/Associated Press

Williams has quietly gained serious steam within NBA front offices. His name has come up multiple times in the sleeper-of-the-draft discussion.

One executive admitted to moving him into the top eight of his rankings, citing Williams being the draft's youngest NCAA prospect with "off-the-charts upside."

Another scout floated the idea that when we look back in a few years, we'll question how and why Williams wasn't a top pick more than any other prospect. 

He didn't generate national attention, averaging just 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds. But for a powerful 6'8", 225-pound 19-year-old, scouts have become enticed by his flashes of physical, athletic finishes, shot-making touch off the catch and dribble, pick-and-roll passing skills and defensive playmaking. 


Those particular flashes create a unique potential trajectory if they become routine plays for Williams. And considering he only turned 19 on August 6, it seems as if teams will be willing to bet on his development.

         

Israel's Deni Avdija Solidifying Top-5 Status

Antonio Calanni/Associated Press

Avdija has been viewed as a potential top-five pick all season, but now it's starting to seem more like a certainty than a possibility. 

July's run helping Maccabi Tel Aviv win Israel's Winner's League championship may have helped solidify his case. Scouts sound highly comfortable with Avdija, even if they're unsure about whether he possesses star potential. 

His versatility at the small and power forward spots also fits with every lottery team. Unlike Ball or Wiseman, whose particular styles and limitations will force GMs to question if they'll work with their roster, teams won't have to worry about whether Avdija can fit.

Since play resumed following the shutdown, he delivered more sequences of grab-and-go transition offense, ball-screen driving and passing, and spot-up shooting. In EuroLeague play, he's proved to be comfortable playing off the ball in a supporting role. In the Israeli BSL, he's shown more confidence and ability as an initiator for Maccabi's offense.

Rather than question Avdija's ceiling, we're looking at a case of teams valuing a player's high floor in a draft loaded with uncertainty. Teams targeting him in the No. 6-10 range will likely have to trade up.

This is one of my favorite reports!!***

Love and Hate with Georgia's Anthony Edwards
Every scout seems to have and project Edwards in the top three—yet nobody seems confident that he's the right type of player to build an offense around.

I've heard "lowest basketball IQ for any potential No. 1 overall pick I can remember." One executive called him a "top-three mystery," which is an amusing oxymoron. Another scout questioned why Edwards couldn't win more games on a team that had decent talent. 

With 6'5", 225-pound size and explosive athleticism, he averaged 19.1 points and 2.3 threes per game, demonstrating a high skill level when creating and making shots. He also shot 40.2 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from three with 91 assists to 87 turnovers for a Georgia team that finished 13th out of 14 teams in the SEC.

The acknowledgement of Edwards' talent and low confidence in it translating to winning has been fascinating. It also fuels more speculation that teams at the top will look to trade down. 

RJ Hampton Falling


Teams don't sound as high on Hampton as they did earlier in the season, when many projected a lottery pick despite his decision to play in the NBL over the NCAA. While his explosiveness for a 6'5" guard always suggested upside, he didn't showcase any signature skill in Australia for scouts to feel confident.

I've started to hear late-first to early second-round grades from teams on Hampton, who combined to shoot 3-of-19 in exhibition games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grlzzlies when the New Zealand Breakers visited the United States in October 2019. All it takes is one of 30 teams to buy into his athleticism and versatility while having patience with his shot and IQ. But he's definitely lost supporters, and he now sounds vulnerable to sliding.

Maryland's Jalen Smith Generating Lottery Buzz
Multiple scouts have Smith graded as a lottery pick.

There is a belief that his full skill set was slightly masked at Maryland, and that he'll surprise with more offensive versatility in the NBA.

Regardless, his improved body and shooting hint at an easy fit and high floor. Teams want bigs who'll bang inside and stretch the floor, and Smith just became the sixth NCAA player on record to average at least a three-point make, 10 rebounds and two blocks a game, per Sports Reference. He's also getting rave reviews for his professionalism and work ethic. He'll be moved into our lottery projections for our next mock draft.

Smaller Takeaways

—I'm hearing a lot of top-10 talk for Iowa State's Tyrese Haliburton. He's likely to be the first NCAA point guard drafted and the second point guard to go after LaMelo Ball.

—Stanford's Tyrell Terry has fans who continue to move him up their board and skeptics who have him in the second round. A source told me he's grown to over 6'3" in sneakers, which could be a big deal for teams questioning his size.

—There is a lot of love for Villanova's Saddiq Bey. I'm sensing he could be one of the first players taken outside the top 10 in the late lottery. His mix of size, shooting and high character have become big draws.

Vanderbilt's Aaron Nesmith has been labeled as the draft's best shooter who some think will go in the late lottery. There are skeptics who aren't as high, citing the idea that he's too one-dimensional. 

—Some think Alabama's Kira Lewis Jr. is going top 20; others have him 25-35. Believers buy his improvement and speed, while doubters have questioned his feel for the game.

[Pistol King]

Deni's stats:

https://basket.co.il/player.asp?PlayerId=11166&lang=en

His 3 pt % really seemed to be impacted when he played in Euroleague. Do you know why his %s are different here then in other places? This shows 38.7% from 3 in the Israeli league. Other places show 35.3%...however I do see two more games are listed in your league.

It looks like when he hit Euroleague his #s really suffered from 3, shooting 27.7%, though he only played 14 minutes a game, and only started 5 games in Euroleague according to this.

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Deni-Avdija/Summary/116938

It appears tankathon is using his averages from both leagues for the year to get his stats. He did seem to struggle a bit against tougher competition, but then again, he didn't play a lot of minutes, so perhaps never got into any groove.

Yep you got it right. I think the big difference is mainly because of the difference between the roles he got in both competitions. In the Israeli league he got more ball touches, was involved in the offensive end much more (while in the Euroleague his coach leaned on the veterans and they often shared with him the ball in late seconds of the possession), so in the Israeli league's role he could get a better feel for when to take shots and he got more confident in general knowing he is a big part of the offensive game plan. The Euroleague is a tougher competition than the Israeli league but I never felt he has any problems with the competition itself and I always claimed (even after his bad games) he could dominant there as well if was given the same role he got in the Israeli league.

[WeekapaugGroove]

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A couple really interesting points in here guys!

Top of Draft May Not Go as Expected

Rick Rycroft/Associated Press

The general belief all year had LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman as top-three overall favorites, with Obi Toppin, Deni Avdija, Onyeka Okongwu and Isaac Okoro mixed into a tier that either slightly overlaps or follows. But based from some scouts' takes I've heard over the past few weeks, mock drafts could start looking silly right from the top. 

I've heard Avdija being ranked higher than LaMelo. Wiseman graded as a late-lottery pick. Jalen Smith over Okongwu. Okoro being compared to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Patrick Williams mentioned as a sleeper to be the draft's top prospect. There are international scouts with Killian Hayes top five, and college scouts who "don't see it."

Opinions are all over the place. This year has all the ingredients for draft results that don't align with the narratives believed by media and fans throughout the season.  

The last draft with this much uncertainty and varying viewpoints was in 2013, when Anthony Bennett went first and Giannis Antetokounmpo went No. 15. Who goes where in 2020 will come down to the order and eye of the general manager at each pick. And each GM's eye could wind up seeing something different by October. 

Florida State's Patrick Williams, Potential Top-10 Riser Williams has quietly gained serious steam within NBA front offices. 
His name has come up multiple times in the sleeper-of-the-draft discussion.

One executive admitted to moving him into the top eight of his rankings, citing Williams being the draft's youngest NCAA prospect with "off-the-charts upside."

Another scout floated the idea that when we look back in a few years, we'll question how and why Williams wasn't a top pick more than any other prospect. 

He didn't generate national attention, averaging just 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds. But for a powerful 6'8", 225-pound 19-year-old, scouts have become enticed by his flashes of physical, athletic finishes, shot-making touch off the catch and dribble, pick-and-roll passing skills and defensive playmaking. Those particular flashes create a unique potential trajectory if they become routine plays for Williams. And considering he only turned 19 on August 6, it seems as if teams will be willing to bet on his development.

Israel's Deni Avdija Solidifying Top-5 Status ☰

Matt Stamey/Associated Press2020 NBA Draft Lottery Buzz: The Mystery Begins Right at the Top

JONATHAN WASSERMAN
AUGUST 20, 2020

The arrival of the NBA draft lottery Thursday night has sparked teams to resume putting their boards together and dig for more intelligence. 

Bleacher Report has had its ear on the league's draft conversations all season, and now things are starting to heat up again after a short layoff.

Here is some of the buzz we've heard pertaining to what scouts are thinking as teams take their draft preparation a step further.

         

Top of Draft May Not Go as Expected

Rick Rycroft/Associated Press

The general belief all year had LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman as top-three overall favorites, with Obi Toppin, Deni Avdija, Onyeka Okongwu and Isaac Okoro mixed into a tier that either slightly overlaps or follows. But based from some scouts' takes I've heard over the past few weeks, mock drafts could start looking silly right from the top. 


I've heard Avdija being ranked higher than LaMelo. Wiseman graded as a late-lottery pick. Jalen Smith over Okongwu. Okoro being compared to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Patrick Williams mentioned as a sleeper to be the draft's top prospect. There are international scouts with Killian Hayes top five, and college scouts who "don't see it."

Opinions are all over the place. This year has all the ingredients for draft results that don't align with the narratives believed by media and fans throughout the season.  

The last draft with this much uncertainty and varying viewpoints was in 2013, when Anthony Bennett went first and Giannis Antetokounmpo went No. 15. Who goes where in 2020 will come down to the order and eye of the general manager at each pick. And each GM's eye could wind up seeing something different by October. 

         

Florida State's Patrick Williams, Potential Top-10 Riser

Matt Stamey/Associated Press

Williams has quietly gained serious steam within NBA front offices. His name has come up multiple times in the sleeper-of-the-draft discussion.

One executive admitted to moving him into the top eight of his rankings, citing Williams being the draft's youngest NCAA prospect with "off-the-charts upside."

Another scout floated the idea that when we look back in a few years, we'll question how and why Williams wasn't a top pick more than any other prospect. 

He didn't generate national attention, averaging just 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds. But for a powerful 6'8", 225-pound 19-year-old, scouts have become enticed by his flashes of physical, athletic finishes, shot-making touch off the catch and dribble, pick-and-roll passing skills and defensive playmaking. 


Those particular flashes create a unique potential trajectory if they become routine plays for Williams. And considering he only turned 19 on August 6, it seems as if teams will be willing to bet on his development.

         

Israel's Deni Avdija Solidifying Top-5 Status

Antonio Calanni/Associated Press

Avdija has been viewed as a potential top-five pick all season, but now it's starting to seem more like a certainty than a possibility. 

July's run helping Maccabi Tel Aviv win Israel's Winner's League championship may have helped solidify his case. Scouts sound highly comfortable with Avdija, even if they're unsure about whether he possesses star potential. 

His versatility at the small and power forward spots also fits with every lottery team. Unlike Ball or Wiseman, whose particular styles and limitations will force GMs to question if they'll work with their roster, teams won't have to worry about whether Avdija can fit.

Since play resumed following the shutdown, he delivered more sequences of grab-and-go transition offense, ball-screen driving and passing, and spot-up shooting. In EuroLeague play, he's proved to be comfortable playing off the ball in a supporting role. In the Israeli BSL, he's shown more confidence and ability as an initiator for Maccabi's offense.

Rather than question Avdija's ceiling, we're looking at a case of teams valuing a player's high floor in a draft loaded with uncertainty. Teams targeting him in the No. 6-10 range will likely have to trade up.

This is one of my favorite reports!!***

Love and Hate with Georgia's Anthony Edwards
Every scout seems to have and project Edwards in the top three—yet nobody seems confident that he's the right type of player to build an offense around.

I've heard "lowest basketball IQ for any potential No. 1 overall pick I can remember." One executive called him a "top-three mystery," which is an amusing oxymoron. Another scout questioned why Edwards couldn't win more games on a team that had decent talent. 

With 6'5", 225-pound size and explosive athleticism, he averaged 19.1 points and 2.3 threes per game, demonstrating a high skill level when creating and making shots. He also shot 40.2 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from three with 91 assists to 87 turnovers for a Georgia team that finished 13th out of 14 teams in the SEC.

The acknowledgement of Edwards' talent and low confidence in it translating to winning has been fascinating. It also fuels more speculation that teams at the top will look to trade down. 

RJ Hampton Falling


Teams don't sound as high on Hampton as they did earlier in the season, when many projected a lottery pick despite his decision to play in the NBL over the NCAA. While his explosiveness for a 6'5" guard always suggested upside, he didn't showcase any signature skill in Australia for scouts to feel confident.

I've started to hear late-first to early second-round grades from teams on Hampton, who combined to shoot 3-of-19 in exhibition games against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grlzzlies when the New Zealand Breakers visited the United States in October 2019. All it takes is one of 30 teams to buy into his athleticism and versatility while having patience with his shot and IQ. But he's definitely lost supporters, and he now sounds vulnerable to sliding.

Maryland's Jalen Smith Generating Lottery Buzz
Multiple scouts have Smith graded as a lottery pick.

There is a belief that his full skill set was slightly masked at Maryland, and that he'll surprise with more offensive versatility in the NBA.

Regardless, his improved body and shooting hint at an easy fit and high floor. Teams want bigs who'll bang inside and stretch the floor, and Smith just became the sixth NCAA player on record to average at least a three-point make, 10 rebounds and two blocks a game, per Sports Reference. He's also getting rave reviews for his professionalism and work ethic. He'll be moved into our lottery projections for our next mock draft.

Smaller Takeaways

—I'm hearing a lot of top-10 talk for Iowa State's Tyrese Haliburton. He's likely to be the first NCAA point guard drafted and the second point guard to go after LaMelo Ball.

—Stanford's Tyrell Terry has fans who continue to move him up their board and skeptics who have him in the second round. A source told me he's grown to over 6'3" in sneakers, which could be a big deal for teams questioning his size.

—There is a lot of love for Villanova's Saddiq Bey. I'm sensing he could be one of the first players taken outside the top 10 in the late lottery. His mix of size, shooting and high character have become big draws.

Vanderbilt's Aaron Nesmith has been labeled as the draft's best shooter who some think will go in the late lottery. There are skeptics who aren't as high, citing the idea that he's too one-dimensional. 

—Some think Alabama's Kira Lewis Jr. is going top 20; others have him 25-35. Believers buy his improvement and speed, while doubters have questioned his feel for the game.

Thanks dude! Williams is an interesting prospect that I'm warming up to at 10.

Such an eye of the beholder class. I actually don't think it's a bad group other than the lack of true blue chippers up top.

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