2020 Season/Offseason (FA/Trade) Speculation - the Season Resumes

[Ghost of Kleine]

I really can't see Sarver opening up his wallet to get someone like Christian Wood or Jerami Grant. If we bring back Saric for around $11 million and Jevon Carter for $2.5 million, keep Payne for his $2 million, Suns are sitting at a salary cap of $98.4 million and that doesn't include the 2020 draft pick (10th pick projected to be $4.5 million, more if we move up to the top 4). If we do bring back Baynes then we are operating over the cap and could potentially use the full MLE. Again, knowing Sarver, doubt we do that.

Sorry man, But paying Saric 11 million outright is about 3-4 million too much for a player who has only shown improvement over an 8 game sample size. Considering that he's been wildly inconsistent pretty much for the whole season, I'd at best, Only extend an offer to him with assurances: My best offer would be: 16/ 2 ** ( WITH BENCHMARK BONUS INCENTIVES). Meaning IF and only if he MAINTAINS consistent production throughout the entire season, He'll recieve additional payscale increase bonuses that will result in his salary potentially reaching up to 12 million per. But it would have to originally be set at 8 million per (before incentives) with the 2nd year being a team option of course. So IF he really has turned a corner and maintains his production, He'll be well paid, IF he goes back to being inconsistent and unreliable at times, he'll stay at 8 million over the term of his contract. If he wants more than 8 million guaranteed base salary, He can walk. But there's no way aside from him accepting my benchmark clauses that I'd pay him anything more than 8 million tops without a much larger sample size indicating proof of sustainability. So again, My offer would be 16/2 ( 2nd yr Team option) And Baynes on ( Full MLE).

As for Oubre, To be honest, With the emergence of Cam and Bridges, Along with taking his immenent free agency payday into consideration, I'd honestly rather move Oubre for a Jerami Grant to help balance out our roster defensively. If we move Oubre into space in a trade, We could then easily sign Grant for something along the lines of 42/3 ( cost controlled through Aytons' and Bridges' extensions). And be paying less than what we're currently paying Oubre for a very solid switchable/ versatile defender that would not only be a great compliment playing alongside Cam and Ayton. But would also help give us an elite lockdown perimeter defense. and added shotblocking too. So essentially we could have the starting lineup look something like this:

Starters
Booker / Bridges/ Grant/ Cam/ Ayton.

2nd Unit
Rubio/ Kennard/ Vassell/ Saric/ Baynes.
* ( Trade) * ( 10th pick)

3rd Unit
Payne/ Carter/ Bridges / Grant / Oturu. For example:

1- Phoenix/ Detroit
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yyrz3v3t
- Phoenix trades Oubre/ to Detroit for Kennard/ Henson's expiring.
- 10 Phoenix drafts Devin Vassell.
- Phoenix buys a 2nd round pick for Oturu.
- In Free agency, Sign Jerami Grant 42/3.

Or you could do one of these variations to get maximum value return for Oubre??


2- Phoenix/Dallas* ( Saddiq replaces Saric for floor spacing).
Phoenix trades Oubre to Dallas for the 18th 31st picks ( Cap clearing move). Then ............
Trade the 10th pick to Detroit for Kennard.
18- Saddiq Bey. ( 3 point shooting).
31- Daniel Oturu. ( shotblocking big shooting 36% from three).
Buy a late 2nd round pick for Trevelin Queen (VASSELL LITE).

3- Phoenix/ Golden state
Phoenix trades Oubre/10 for the TPE / Pick swap. Phoenix then trades the Top 3 pick/ And a future ( 2023) lottery protected first to Detroit for Kennard and the 5th pick.
5- Draft Toppin.
- *Buy a 2nd round pick for Oturu.
In free agency, Sign Grant at 42/3. Then bring back Baynes Full MLE on a (1yr deal).

- Booker/ Rubio/ Payne.
- Bridges/ Kennard/ Carter.
- Grant / Bridges/ Cam.
- Cam/ Toppin/ Grant.
- Ayton/ Baynes/ Oturu.

4- Phoenix/ Atlanta
Phoenix trades Oubre/ Jerome / Diallo to Atlanta for the 4th pick.
4- Draft Hayes ( backup GOTF).
10- Draft Vassell ( replacement for Oubre).
Buy a 2nd round pick for Oturu.
In free agency, Sign Grant at 42/3. Bring back Saric and Baynes ( short term deals with a 2nd yr team option).

- Booker/ Rubio/ Payne.
- Bridges/ Hayes/ Carter.
- Grant/ Vassell/ Cam.
- Cam/ Saric/ Grant.
- Ayton/ Baynes/ Oturu.

5- Phoenix/Chicago/ Detroit ALL IN MOVE!!!
http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y22ewsp9
- Phoenix trades Oubre and the 10th pick to Chicago for Markannen and Sato.
- Phoenix then flips Sato/ Okobo/ Diallo/ 2023 top 6 protected first *( WILL CONVEY) for Kennard (around 3 million).
- Phoenix then buys a late first ( 24th from Milwaukee) for Tyler Bey ( around 2 million).
- Phoenix buys a 2nd round pick ( 36th from Philly) for Daniel Oturu. ( around 1 million).
+ [u]Markannen - around 5 million[/u].
( Total draft night salary added- around 11 million. Leaving us with around 4 million in cap space left.
*** In free agency, Add Derrick Jones Jr. 8/2 ( TO).
Then we are at the cap. Bring back Baynes on the MLE.
- Booker/ Rubio/ Cam.
- Bridges/ Kennard/ Carter.
- Cam/ DJones Jr/ T Bey.
- Markannen/ Cam/ Bridges.
- Ayton/ Baynes/ Oturu.
* * Markannen (Replaces Oubre).
* T Bey and Derrick Jones Jr ( Add defensive depth to the 2/3).
* Oturu replaces Kaminsky.
* Cam (replaces Sarics' role).

[Mjee]

Would you do Ayton, Oubre, and Jerome for Embiid? Works perfectly salary wise.

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In a millisecond !!!!!! Anybody that says no is delusional

I must be delusional! I think Ayton will be better than Embiid . Plus I think Oubre and pick can get us Markannen.

Markannen and Ayton > Embiid

Really.. ok

Embiid is a bonified superstar ... top 2 center in the NBA

lauri hasn’t proved squat and Ayton is on another planet every other game !! Will Ayton ever reach embiids level of play .... yet to be determined but I doubt it

[bwgood77]

Would you do Ayton, Oubre, and Jerome for Embiid? Works perfectly salary wise.

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Yes, but I don't know why they would.

[DirtyDez]

Would you do Ayton, Oubre, and Jerome for Embiid? Works perfectly salary wise.

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Embiid surrounded by a lineup of Book, Cam, Mikal and <insert any PG> yes plz!!

[LV-Suns]

Would you do Ayton, Oubre, and Jerome for Embiid? Works perfectly salary wise.

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Yes, but I don't know why they would.

Maybe if the Sixers get swept and Embiid asks out.

[Blonde]

There’s a decent chance that right now Ayton is at his peak value. He still has mystery surrounding his upside and decent team control left on a rookie deal. One year from now he will be a pretty known commodity around the league with only one year left of team control. Two years from now he’ll likely become grossly overpaid.

That doesn’t mean you trade him for anybody... but for Embiid and maybe 15-20 other guys around the league, yeah he should be available.

[sunskerr]

There’s a decent chance that right now Ayton is at his peak value. He still has mystery surrounding his upside and decent team control left on a rookie deal. One year from now he will be a pretty known commodity around the league with only one year left of team control. Two years from now he’ll likely become grossly overpaid.

That doesn’t mean you trade him for anybody... but for Embiid and maybe 15-20 other guys around the league, yeah he should be available.

This. You have to stay real with regards to putting together a championship team. If there is a 25-27 year old superstar for trade, you have to think/consider strongly about moving Ayton. The superstar is the finished product, whilst Ayton is still all potential. You shift the burden of hoping he pans out to another team, whilst we get a sure fire star.

However, it cannot be stated enough that the most ideal scenario is to sign a star free agent in 2021 with our cap space and then use the bird rights to resign Ayton and Bridges in 2022. That allows us to have a deeper team than if we had traded a prospect(s) for a star.

That being said, Ayton still grades out as a very good defender according to 538's RAPTOR. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/ (sort by overall def. RAPTOR) He is a top 20 (18th) defender in the league according to this metric, which is becoming a more respected metric than some other advanced all-in-one metrics.

Ayton's ranking here seems to reflect the defensive growth that we were apparently seeing this season. His offense still a negative however, which is also something we can obviously see. As of right now, whatever Ayton gives us is isn't particularly hard to replace. You could put some of the "normal" starting centers in the lineup and it might not change very much. So it just comes down to whether or not Ayton pans out offensively.

Interestingly, RAPTOR's 538 loves Christian Wood and thinks he's a top 20 player. He's probably not that good, and as we can see with Zubac somehow being the 14th best player (total RAPTOR) the model isn't perfect. But for all you Christian Wood fans here, that's a super good sign. He could be a hidden all-star or near all-star level player you can get for cheaper.

[Crives]

There’s a decent chance that right now Ayton is at his peak value. He still has mystery surrounding his upside and decent team control left on a rookie deal. One year from now he will be a pretty known commodity around the league with only one year left of team control. Two years from now he’ll likely become grossly overpaid.

That doesn’t mean you trade him for anybody... but for Embiid and maybe 15-20 other guys around the league, yeah he should be available.

This. You have to stay real with regards to putting together a championship team. If there is a 25-27 year old superstar for trade, you have to think/consider strongly about moving Ayton. The superstar is the finished product, whilst Ayton is still all potential. You shift the burden of hoping he pans out to another team, whilst we get a sure fire star.

However, it cannot be stated enough that the most ideal scenario is to sign a star free agent in 2021 with our cap space and then use the bird rights to resign Ayton and Bridges in 2022. That allows us to have a deeper team than if we had traded a prospect(s) for a star.

That being said, Ayton still grades out as a very good defender according to 538's RAPTOR. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/ (sort by overall def. RAPTOR) He is a top 20 (18th) defender in the league according to this metric, which is becoming a more respected metric than some other advanced all-in-one metrics.

Ayton's ranking here seems to reflect the defensive growth that we were apparently seeing this season. His offense still a negative however, which is also something we can obviously see.

Interestingly, RAPTOR loves 538 and thinks he's a top 20 player. He's probably not that good, and as we can see with Zubac somehow being the 14th best player (total RAPTOR) the model isn't perfect. But for all you Christian Wood fans here, that's a super good sign. He could be a hidden all-star or near all-star level player you can get for cheaper.

I agree with this theory. But when it comes to Embiid, you have to wonder if Embiids health concerns are more risky then Ayton continuing to improve + additional cap flexibility.

[lilfishi22]

Would you do Ayton, Oubre, and Jerome for Embiid? Works perfectly salary wise.

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I think Embiid is better than Ayton in virtually every way, even in the intangibles but I have concerns about his health. In a vacuum, abosulutely yes but I think when considering the timeline for this team, Ayton's age and the focus on Booker, I think I would have to say no.

[sunskerr]

Yeah, I totally forgot about Embiids health. Have to refuse on those grounds. But anyway, the rest of my post still stands. If there's an acceptable target there's no reason for Ayton to be off the table. I'm also fine with sticking it out and seeing what happens in 2021 or 22.

[Saberestar]

Would you do Ayton, Oubre, and Jerome for Embiid? Works perfectly salary wise.

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Yes, but I don't know why they would.

Maybe if the Sixers get swept and Embiid asks out.

Yeah, I would do it but as you said Embiid would need to ask out. He would really need to put pressure on their FO.

If that is not the case no way they will trade a player like that on his prime for potential...and I am not a big fan of Embiid, but he is GOOD for real.

[Qwigglez]

I would be worried about Embiid's health, but him and Booker would be a lethal combo offensively to deal with. I'm hoping Ayton improves but man... I was watching some prime Dwight Howard videos and wondering why Ayton can't dominate the post like Dwight used to do. Ayton has the footwork, the power, the finesse, to do everything but he just refuses. Dwight does that spin move to get the Oop, something Ayton can easily do. I just feel like Ayton isn't utilizing all of his talent and it's frustrating.

Watch on YouTube

[sunskerr]

I would be worried about Embiid's health, but him and Booker would be a lethal combo offensively to deal with. I'm hoping Ayton improves but man... I was watching some prime Dwight Howard videos and wondering why Ayton can't dominate the post like Dwight used to do. Ayton has the footwork, the power, the finesse, to do everything but he just refuses. Dwight does that spin move to get the Oop, something Ayton can easily do. I just feel like Ayton isn't utilizing all of his talent and it's frustrating.

At this rate, two seasons in, I think there's cause for concern that Ayton simply doesn't have those moves in his skillset. And if it continues into next season we should be extremely worried. We're two seasons in, and two coaches in. There's at least some reason now to think that if he had that offensive ability the coaches would have designed something around it.

[Saberestar]

If it's true that we will sign Saric to play backup minutes at PF and C and we will let go Baynes, Kaminsky and Diallo (Gambo's theory) I would try to sign Boban Marjanović to play some minutes at C.

He is playing well for the Mavs and he is an amazing veteran presence, such a nice guy.

Obviously on a cheap short contract, but he would give us great depth.

He has already some history with Jeff Bower (Pistons) and Monty Williams (Sixers), so that could help.

[suns12345]

If it's true that we will sign Saric to play backup minutes at PF and C and we will let go Baynes, Kaminsky and Diallo (Gambo's theory) I would try to sign Boban Marjanović to play some minutes at C.

He is playing well for the Mavs and he is an amazing veteran presence, such a nice guy.

Obviously on a cheap short contract, but he would give us great depth.

He has already some history with Jeff Bower (Pistons) and Monty Williams (Sixers), so that could help.

I forgot Jeff Bower worked here. mmmmm, he doesnt have the same good guy vibes as Monty and James Jones. More of those Sarver, lurking in the background and influencing decisions in a bad way vibes....

[Qwigglez]

I would be worried about Embiid's health, but him and Booker would be a lethal combo offensively to deal with. I'm hoping Ayton improves but man... I was watching some prime Dwight Howard videos and wondering why Ayton can't dominate the post like Dwight used to do. Ayton has the footwork, the power, the finesse, to do everything but he just refuses. Dwight does that spin move to get the Oop, something Ayton can easily do. I just feel like Ayton isn't utilizing all of his talent and it's frustrating.

At this rate, two seasons in, I think there's cause for concern that Ayton simply doesn't have those moves in his skillset. And if it continues into next season we should be extremely worried. We're two seasons in, and two coaches in. There's at least some reason now to think that if he had that offensive ability the coaches would have designed something around it.

He has the moves and skill set IMO, he just chooses not to use them. When he gets the ball in the post his first instinct is to just do a turn around fade away. He shoots more mid-range shots than James Harden does. I thought Ayton's FT rate would be higher this season then in his rookie season, but that hasn't been the case. I thought for sure Koko wasn't utilizing him properly but I think Ayton prefers to float in the mid-range rather than bang on the inside. He just needs to diversify his game a bit and get to the line more. That'll open up the court for the rest of the team.

[Saberestar]

If it's true that we will sign Saric to play backup minutes at PF and C and we will let go Baynes, Kaminsky and Diallo (Gambo's theory) I would try to sign Boban Marjanović to play some minutes at C.

He is playing well for the Mavs and he is an amazing veteran presence, such a nice guy.

Obviously on a cheap short contract, but he would give us great depth.

He has already some history with Jeff Bower (Pistons) and Monty Williams (Sixers), so that could help.

I forgot Jeff Bower worked here. mmmmm, he doesnt have the same good guy vibes as Monty and James Jones. More of those Sarver, lurking in the background and influencing decisions in a bad way vibes....

But we have Cam Johnson because of him, so he probably is not that bad.

[AtheJ415]

I think Oubre v. Markkanen is a tough call. Markkanen has not been the shooter you'd think in the NBA. His motion is awesome but he only hits at a 34% clip. That isn't any better than Oubre really. Markkanen is a better passer, but Oubre has more athletic upside, particularly as a defender. You might be trading a guy with more versatility in Oubre for a cheaper salary essentially. I do like Lauri though, and I think his % will come up. Guys with size who can really shoot are invaluable, so I'd probably do it, but it would be based solely on believing he can become a near 40% 3 point shooter, which I think he can. He was one of the greatest shooting college big from 3 of all time.

I'm surprised so many would want to trade Ayton for Embiid. If we're moving away from Ayton why would we grab the player whose upside is most similar? I'd rather try to trade a boatload of picks for Simmons than move Ayton and a bunch of stuff for the more expensive, more injury prone version of Ayton's upside. It's true Ayton may never reach his upside, but he has improved a ton in just a year, and is ahead of Embiid at the same stage. It's not like we have an aging roster here and can't wait on Ayton, who is already an above average starting center and probably jumps to top 7 or 8 next year. I think All Star by 2022 is not that crazy.

People are overrating the bubble and assuming we're a title contender or something and that Ayton is doomed to suck. His mindset needs to change on offense, but coming into the NBA he was a horrid defender and his mindset there did a complete 180, so why do people assume he'll be a passive mid range shooter who doesn't shoot 3's for his entire NBA career when we have now started seeing him shoot a bunch of 3s?

[AtheJ415]

Also what will help Ayton's aggressiveness more than anything on the offensive end is improving his handle. I don't think he's confident driving at people out of face up and back to basket positions. When he catches it on the move heading to the basket he's a lot better, but I don't think he is comfortable creating space himself even though he's one of the quickest bigs in the league, and I think that's why. If he continues to focus on defense, 3s, and his handle he'll be fine. He does have a back to the basket game, but I think our offensive sets typically give him the ball further away than his back to the basket game is used to, which is why he settles for mid range shots.

The main issue for me with Ayton and the one question I have on him becoming a multi-time all star type of guy, is the free throw rate. You can't not get to the line and impact the game enough to be a star. Fouls pressure the opposition, and free throws are incredibly efficient for good shooters.

[sunskerr]

Just need to correct some things. I'm not calling you out personally or anything, and I'm not denying Ayton can become a great player for us. But for the sake of discussion it's probably best to correct some things here.

If we're moving away from Ayton why would we grab the player whose upside is most similar? more injury prone version of Ayton's upside.

They are very different players. Embiid has 45% of his 2PA assisted, Ayton has 75%. Embiid has also been knocking down a shave over 1.0 3PG since his rookie year. Embiid's FG% is 48% and Ayton's is 57%. So again, there is a massive difference in the way they play basketball.

and is ahead of Embiid at the same stage.

Embiid was injured at the same age. In Embiids rookie season he averaged 20/8 and 2.5 bpg. Ayton's rookie season was 16/10 and 1 bpg. Embiid also averaged 7.9 FTA in his rookie year whilst Ayton averaged 2.7 FTA. We'll see how it shakes out next year when Ayton is the same age as Embiid was in his rookie season. But it looks like Embiid at the least was definitely superior rim protector and was a much more skilled offensive player.

Ayton, who is already an above average starting center

He is closer to average. He gets his points off spoon feeds on offense, and plays good defense. I posted this earlier but what we see in game is backed pretty closely by 538's RAPTOR ratings (sort by centers) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-player-ratings/ Defensively speaking he is probably above average (+3.0 def RAPTOR), but his offense drags him down(-1.2 off RAPTOR. Overall raptor has him around 20th.

we have now started seeing him shoot a bunch of 3s?

He is not shooting "a bunch of 3s" now. He shot 1.4 3PA in the bubble.

Again, the good news is that he defends pretty damn well. It's just the offense that holds him back. It seems like he'd have to transform himself pretty remarkably as a player however as the numbers tell a story that he's a vastly different player than Embiid, or other offensive centers. For reference to another star center, Jokic has about 50% of his 2PA assisted, which is about in the same range as Joel Embiid.

I think it's fair to say right now he is a much more similar style of player to Rudy Gobert or Clint Capela than Embiid.

What we want is for Ayton's FG% to go down (I mean, ideally he always shoots 57% but that's probably impossible), which should suggest he's expanding his game by creating more of his own offense and taking more 3s, and getting to the line more. Like you said, improving his handle will allow him to do these things, but right now he doesn't have that handle and it shows in his stats.

I actually don't think Embiids offense is particularly impressive. I think he tries to force shots too much inside on bad post ups and fadeaways, where he would be better served making a play for a teammate or passing back out.