The Lebron '20 Thread (Pt. 5)

[Baski]

..

I dunno how much of it is the Blazers' offense not being as good as the top teams, but this defense is what's going to win the Lakers the ship if it happens. Their offense is too inconsistent.

[freethedevil]

Not going to agree here, people overate AD based on his box score when impact metrics don't really agree with him being a top tier player on either side of the ball. He's a good finisher who can't pass and is limited in creating his own offense and his defense is good, but not dpoty material.

What? impact metrics had him as giannis level during 18-19. And they still view him as like as the third or fourth best defender in the game.

His impact metrics have consistently put him on the level of players like KD and Harden, but the former joined a 73 win to play with curry and the latter gets espn spamming his "never did this since wilt" ****. The former two are seen as respectable best player in the league candidates, and ad isn't, even though metrics view them as the same calibre of player.

Impact metrics with davis are weird because multiyear stuff underrates him because of how weird his yearly production is. He wasnt great in 2016 and 2017 on offense, 2018 he was incredible once cousins got hurt but before that he and cousins werent a great fit/werent a good match yet, 2019 he was great offensively but stopped caring on D because of the drama, so multiyear is gonna be hard on him. Davis's rapm in 2015 was mvp level and hes leagues better than he was back then, on offense its a utilization thing clearly and rapm has his defense as pretty damn good from 2016-2019, and as a fan of his he is a better defender in 2020 than 2019 for a variety of reasons

well the big difference i've seen in granular data is that davis in 2019 had a passer rating of 6.8 and davis in 2020 has a passer rating of 4.1. Maybe that's context based, but elgee specifcally said one of the reasons he viewed davis as a top 4 player in 2019 was because his playmaking had gotten way better.

Off course he completely glossed over ad's playmaking looking way worse in 2020 stastically while trying to argue ad only looked worse because he was playing with lebron(note that ad's passing/creation stats get worse with lebron off than on_........

Maybe his fluky passing is the difference

[MyUniBroDavis]

On-off and RAPM cant justify a player not being as good as people think if those are the only arguments for it, or else the opposite is true as well

Huh? That's kinda dumb.

Why should a minority opinion need evidence any more than a majority one?

If literally the only counter is "well i disagree", then i'll take impact data over "well, i disagree"

Impact data is a tool and evidence but it isnt an answer

A majority belief should one hundred percent need more evidence if its based off of justified grounds.

If a player clearly does everything on the court to be a A tier player, everything about his play says A tier player, and single year impact data has him as a C tier player, are you gonna pull him down when impact data is the only reason you have to do so? Thre idea is it can help you look for things you might not look at before but if those things dont exist then are you going to justify him being C tier by impact data and absolutely nothing else?

There are other things like role and usage that matter to measure impact in context too, but if a great player had a lower impact year despite playing at the exact same level with the exact same team witth the same usage it doesnt make him a worse player

[MyUniBroDavis]

What? impact metrics had him as giannis level during 18-19. And they still view him as like as the third or fourth best defender in the game.

His impact metrics have consistently put him on the level of players like KD and Harden, but the former joined a 73 win to play with curry and the latter gets espn spamming his "never did this since wilt" ****. The former two are seen as respectable best player in the league candidates, and ad isn't, even though metrics view them as the same calibre of player.

Impact metrics with davis are weird because multiyear stuff underrates him because of how weird his yearly production is. He wasnt great in 2016 and 2017 on offense, 2018 he was incredible once cousins got hurt but before that he and cousins werent a great fit/werent a good match yet, 2019 he was great offensively but stopped caring on D because of the drama, so multiyear is gonna be hard on him. Davis's rapm in 2015 was mvp level and hes leagues better than he was back then, on offense its a utilization thing clearly and rapm has his defense as pretty damn good from 2016-2019, and as a fan of his he is a better defender in 2020 than 2019 for a variety of reasons

well the big difference i've seen in granular data is that davis in 2019 had a passer rating of 6.8 and davis in 2020 has a passer rating of 4.1. Maybe that's context based, but elgee specifcally said one of the reasons he viewed davis as a top 4 player in 2019 was because his playmaking had gotten way better.

Off course he completely glossed over ad's playmaking looking way worse in 2020 stastically while trying to argue ad only looked worse because he was playing with lebron(note that ad's passing/creation stats get worse with lebron off than on_........

Maybe his fluky passing is the difference

Davis isnt really a post passer in my opinion anyways, hes ok at passing out of the roll but theyre making him more of an initiator than he should be, at least out of the post

Brons a good fit with him but even in new orleans he wasnt as much of an initiator as he is now, and thats not a knock on him because a dion waiters level guy on offense is enough for davis to play to his strengths more

[MyUniBroDavis]

..

I dunno how much of it is the Blazers' offense not being as good as the top teams, but this defense is what's going to win the Lakers the ship if it happens. Their offense is too inconsistent.

Portland had the third best offense in the league throughout the year and have had a 123 offensive rtg in the bubble. Obv not as scary on offense as some other teans but theyre pretry good (Best in the league since the new year too)

Otoh their defense has been tragic but we havent had trouble getting good looks and theyre really collapsing on bron (and whiteside has shortcomings but hes a great defender against our team matchup wise)

[freethedevil]

On-off and RAPM cant justify a player not being as good as people think if those are the only arguments for it, or else the opposite is true as well

Huh? That's kinda dumb.

Why should a minority opinion need evidence any more than a majority one?

If literally the only counter is "well i disagree", then i'll take impact data over "well, i disagree"

Impact data is a tool and evidence but it isnt an answer

No ****. But if one side has impact data and the other side has "well, i disagree", i'm going with side a 10/10. And everything's a tool, but making good use of tools requires understand how well the tools work and what the tools measure. Imapct data estimates induvidual impact of winning. If there's a mass consensus on impact data(because remember no two impact stats are made the same)around a player, it should carry more weight than a personal interpretation of granular info assuming what you value here is winning.

If a player clearly does everything on the court to be a A tier player, everything about his play says A tier player, and single year impact data has him as a C tier player, are you gonna pull him down when impact data is the only reason you have to do so?

If everything that measures impact on winning suggests he's c tier, but you keep thinking he's a tier, then it best the question what exactly your assumption that what he's doing is a tier for winning stands on. Induvdiual impact is the forest, how players arrive at it is the trees. Looking at the trees can be useful, but if your speculations are so drastically differing from all the simulations of the forest, then there's probably something **** about how you're interpreting the forest. A tier players would leave hints they're a tier in their impact on winning. KG had the worst of circumstances and was still posting all time great impact on good teams, bad teas, terrible teams, and title teams.

Thre idea is it can help you look for things you might not look at before but if those things dont exist then are you going to justify him being C tier by impact data and absolutely nothing else?

What things? MOV exists, point differnetial exists, this is what winning or losing comes from. What you mightfind is that context explaining why someone's impact is way higher or lower than you think it should be doesn't exist, and if so, you should consider adjusting your opinoin.

There are other things like role and usage that matter to measure impact in context too, but if a great player had a lower impact year despite playing at the exact same level with the exact same team witth the same usage it doesnt make him a worse player

Well, first off, you need to know what you're assuming he's playing at the exact same level off. Secondly, role does matter, which is why smart vois look at wins added as well as the rate score, and how a player generally shifts depending on team.

EX: KG's impact didn't plummet or skyrocket on better or worse teams or bigger and smaller roles over a large ass period of time, so we can be pretty confident that his atg level impact was legit.

[nzahir]

Better than Mcgee, at least he spaces floor and more mobile in this trapping/help defense we are playing

But Mcgee has to play a bit less, 13 min is still maybe 3-7 too much

McGee had 10 pts on 5/6 FG with 8 rebounds and 3 assists and was a +15 in 13 minutes. And played solid defense. What else do you want the guy to do?

He was fine tonight, usually not this good

And the issue is he clogs the lane, they are legit playing two 7 footers like its 2000 and our shooters aren't really punishing them or bringing them out

5-10 min is fine

[nzahir]

Why doesn't Lebron go back to shoot around? Legit no reason not to

Cmon man

For a guy who prides himself on work ethic, its not all about physical workouts and staying in shape

Kieff keeps bricking. Why are we playing him so much? Cuz of the matchup? Rather Dion play more

He made shots in the first game and he has been excellent defensively in both.

I’m sure he spends a lot of time shooting the ball out of game time. Don’t obsess too much with this shoot around stuff

Sure hope he is, but hasn't seemed like it

Jumper is 2015 levels bad

Lebron has to dig deep, who knows if they are this good next year. May be their last shot unless they get another star

[Joey Wheeler]

AD is an unbelievable player, best defensive player in the game and a great offensive player too, especially for a big. One of the most talented players we've ever seen in the NBA. He's been underrated for a long time, this year more so because scared Lebron fans are trying to set the narrative to blame everyone else in case the Lakers lose.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Huh? That's kinda dumb.

Why should a minority opinion need evidence any more than a majority one?

If literally the only counter is "well i disagree", then i'll take impact data over "well, i disagree"

Impact data is a tool and evidence but it isnt an answer

No ****. But if one side has impact data and the other side has "well, i disagree", i'm going with side a 10/10. And everything's a tool, but making good use of tools requires understand how well the tools work and what the tools measure. Imapct data estimates induvidual impact of winning. If there's a mass consensus on impact data(because remember no two impact stats are made the same)around a player, it should carry more weight than a personal interpretation of granular info assuming what you value here is winning.

If a player clearly does everything on the court to be a A tier player, everything about his play says A tier player, and single year impact data has him as a C tier player, are you gonna pull him down when impact data is the only reason you have to do so?

If everything that measures impact on winning suggests he's c tier, but you keep thinking he's a tier, then it best the question what exactly your assumption that what he's doing is a tier for winning stands on. Induvdiual impact is the forest, how players arrive at it is the trees. Looking at the trees can be useful, but if your speculations are so drastically differing from all the simulations of the forest, then there's probably something **** about how you're interpreting the forest. A tier players would leave hints they're a tier in their impact on winning. KG had the worst of circumstances and was still posting all time great impact on good teams, bad teas, terrible teams, and title teams.

Thre idea is it can help you look for things you might not look at before but if those things dont exist then are you going to justify him being C tier by impact data and absolutely nothing else?

What things? MOV exists, point differnetial exists, this is what winning or losing comes from. What you mightfind is that context explaining why someone's impact is way higher or lower than you think it should be doesn't exist, and if so, you should consider adjusting your opinoin.

There are other things like role and usage that matter to measure impact in context too, but if a great player had a lower impact year despite playing at the exact same level with the exact same team witth the same usage it doesnt make him a worse player

Well, first off, you need to know what you're assuming he's playing at the exact same level off. Secondly, role does matter, which is why smart vois look at wins added as well as the rate score, and how a player generally shifts depending on team.

EX: KG's impact didn't plummet or skyrocket on better or worse teams or bigger and smaller roles over a large ass period of time, so we can be pretty confident that his atg level impact was legit.

Lol dude ur responding to me saying impact data isnt a full argument but it can help you search for things that might be there by saying it isnt the full argument but you can search for things that might be there

Role and usage matters in a much more specific way than just "he scores, he playmakes, he shoots" than how people say

Im not disagreeing that impact data is a valuable tool and if there is no evidence against it we should use it but if there is evidence against it then we cant blindly accept it lol. Im not saying impact data shouldnt be used as AN argument but it isnt THE argument.

[trickshot]

AD is an unbelievable player, best defensive player in the game and a great offensive player too, especially for a big. One of the most talented players we've ever seen in the NBA. He's been underrated for a long time, this year more so because scared Lebron fans are trying to set the narrative to blame everyone else in case the Lakers lose.

Yet you're the one in here doing damage control

[therealbig3]

LeBron is essentially Jason Kidd right now, not looking to score at all, still a big positive impact player with his passing, defense, leadership, overall decision-making, and picking his spots on offense.

Kind of crazy that a LeBron that can't consistently score in the half court is still as good or better than a top 40 player of all time lol.

[MyUniBroDavis]

LeBron is essentially Jason Kidd right now, not looking to score at all, still a big positive impact player with his passing, defense, leadership, overall decision-making, and picking his spots on offense.

Kind of crazy that a LeBron that can't consistently score in the half court is still as good or better than a top 40 player of all time lol.

He wasnt really trying to score but he was getting the shots he wanted to when he go into the post

[Joey Wheeler]

AD is an unbelievable player, best defensive player in the game and a great offensive player too, especially for a big. One of the most talented players we've ever seen in the NBA. He's been underrated for a long time, this year more so because scared Lebron fans are trying to set the narrative to blame everyone else in case the Lakers lose.

Yet you're the one in here doing damage control

Oh this is extremely intriguing. What's this "damage" I'm controlling exactly? No need to be so insecure, Lebron is still the best player in the world and the Lakers are going to win the championship, calm down. The attempts to have excuses in place in case those don't transpire are just absurd, show some more confidence in your guy, he's earned it at this point, no?

[MyUniBroDavis]

AD is an unbelievable player, best defensive player in the game and a great offensive player too, especially for a big. One of the most talented players we've ever seen in the NBA. He's been underrated for a long time, this year more so because scared Lebron fans are trying to set the narrative to blame everyone else in case the Lakers lose.

Yet you're the one in here doing damage control

I dont think AD is the best defender in the league and i think hes a but overrated on offense but i dont disagree that hes underrated on this board and that what he said is a motivation for some people, although i think lebron is a good deal better than hin

[Joey Wheeler]

AD is an unbelievable player, best defensive player in the game and a great offensive player too, especially for a big. One of the most talented players we've ever seen in the NBA. He's been underrated for a long time, this year more so because scared Lebron fans are trying to set the narrative to blame everyone else in case the Lakers lose.

Yet you're the one in here doing damage control

I dont think AD is the best defender in the league and i think hes a but overrated on offense but i dont disagree that hes underrated on this board and that what he said is a motivation for some people, although i think lebron is a good deal better than hin

He probably is overrated on offense because bigs in general are, he obviously can't match the impact of elite guards and wings; he's still a great offensive player who meshes perfect with elite guards and wings (which is the most important offensive trait for a big). Lebron is still better probably, we'll know for sure once the playoffs are done, but not "by a good deal", it's definitely close. Lebron is far superior on offense, but Davis is far superior on defense as well.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Yet you're the one in here doing damage control

I dont think AD is the best defender in the league and i think hes a but overrated on offense but i dont disagree that hes underrated on this board and that what he said is a motivation for some people, although i think lebron is a good deal better than hin

He probably is overrated on offense because bigs in general are, he obviously can't match the impact of elite guards and wings; he's still a great offensive player who meshes perfect with elite guards and wings (which is the most important offensive trait for a big). Lebron is still better probably, we'll know for sure once the playoffs are done, but not "by a good deal", it's definitely close. Lebron is far superior on offense, but Davis is far superior on defense as well.

I mean if davis goes off i agree but id say lebron is better on offense than davis is on defense, and lebron is better on defense than davis is on offense

I think that in terms of talent its close but Davis isnt being used like he was in new orleans.

Davis at Center rn used like he was in NO with a teammate like lebron is a top 1-3 guy in the league imo

[therealbig3]

LeBron is essentially Jason Kidd right now, not looking to score at all, still a big positive impact player with his passing, defense, leadership, overall decision-making, and picking his spots on offense.

Kind of crazy that a LeBron that can't consistently score in the half court is still as good or better than a top 40 player of all time lol.

He wasnt really trying to score but he was getting the shots he wanted to when he go into the post

Yeah but he's not looking to take any sort of jump shot AT ALL unless the shot clock is running down.

I really don't think it's the right approach. LeBron is a fantastic playmaker, but he's at his best when he's actively looking for his own shot and isn't afraid to take jumpers, and then sets up his teammates based on the pressure he's putting on the defense.

It works against Portland to be passive, because Portland isn't that good, but against Houston or LAC? LeBron needs to be much more aggressive looking for his own offense.

[trickshot]

AD is an unbelievable player, best defensive player in the game and a great offensive player too, especially for a big. One of the most talented players we've ever seen in the NBA. He's been underrated for a long time, this year more so because scared Lebron fans are trying to set the narrative to blame everyone else in case the Lakers lose.

Yet you're the one in here doing damage control

Oh this is extremely intriguing. What's this "damage" I'm controlling exactly? No need to be so insecure, Lebron is still the best player in the world and the Lakers are going to win the championship, calm down. The attempts to have excuses in place in case those don't transpire are just absurd, show some more confidence in your guy, he's earned it at this point, no?

The leap that the criticism about AD was some narrative by "scared fans" is fiction. Paul George for example received huge criticism for yesterday and no one made the leap that it was an in-built excuse for Kawhi. Not everything is some conspiracy to protect Lebron's legacy. AD receives criticism because he's the future of the Lakers. Many Laker fans dont even like Lebron

[Dr Positivity]

I wouldn't want to live in a world where Melo eliminates Lebron from the playoffs