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2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1

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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#761 » by 76ciology » Sun Aug 23, 2020 4:20 pm

Kobblehead wrote:Brett Brown has had a huge say in personnel since Bryan Colangelo left. He could be gone in a week. I would hope all previous approaches to the draft would be thrown out the window.


The way I see it, the FO has an idea of what is the prototype of players we need.

Jimmy prototype:
Burks
Fultz
Zhaire
Jrich

JJ prototype:
Milton
Shamet
Belineli

Roco prototype:
Tobias
GRob

Dario prototype:
Horford
Mike Scott
Muscala
Ilyasova

Biid pairs better with the JJ-Jimmy prototype
Ben pairs better with the Roco-Dario prototype

What happened during the offseason leading to this season was we tried to shift the talent towards the guys who compliments Ben. One of the reason is because Ben needs more help than Biid.

I mean right now, what’s missing is Ben’s growth. If Ben can live up to the hype, do you see any problem? I dont.

Expect this to carry on.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#762 » by Kobblehead » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:13 pm

Other than Butler and Covington, why is the front office even bothering with those other crappy prototypes? That doesn't look like a winning blueprint to me.

Get guys that can defend their position and guys that can score off the dribble (hopefully eventually landing a handful that can do both).

Can defend their position:
- Embiid/Horford at C
- Simmons
- Thybulle

Can score off the dribble:
- Burks (who is expiring)

Guys that do neither:
- Harris
- Milton
- Korkmaz
- Scott

I don't see much playoff viability on this roster, as it stands.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#763 » by Negrodamus » Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:28 pm

Wings that played in the BPM era (according to Sports Reference) in college and made it to one of the past two All Star games:

Kyrie Irving - OBPM: 9.8, DBPM: 5.0, STL%: 3.0, AST%: 29.8
Kawhi Leonard - OBPM: 5.3, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 2.7, AST%: 16.0
Bradley Beal - OBPM: 5.4, DBPM: 2.9, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 12.7
Ben Simmons - OBPM: 7.0, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 27.4
Damian Lillard -OBPM: 9.1, DBPM: 0.7, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 27.1
Klay Thompson -OBPM: 6.8, DBPM: 3.0, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 25.0
Victor Oladipo - OBPM: 8.9, DBPM: 6.2, STL%: 4.6, AST%: 15.2
Khris Middleton - OBPM: 4.3, DBPM: 1.9, STL%: 2.1, AST%: 20.0
D'Angelo Russell - OBPM: 8.6, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 30.1
Kemba Walker -OBPM: 9.2, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 28.0
Devin Booker -OBPM: 6.1, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 1.3, AST%: 10.9
Jayson Tatum - OBPM: 4.6, DBPM: 3.2, STL%: 2.3, AST%: 12.2
Jimmy Butler - OBPM: 7.2, DBPM: 2.2, STL%: 2.4, AST%: 13.2
Donovan Mitchell - OBPM: 5.7, DBPM: 5.5, STL%: 3.7, AST%: 16.0
Brandon Ingram- OBPM: 6.0, DBPM: 2.0, STL%: 1.9, AST%: 11.4
Trae Young - OBPM: 9.7, DBPM: 1.3, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 48.6

DBPM, aside from a few anomalies is 2+. STL% is generally 2.2+, AST% is at least 10+, OBPM is at least 5+

There's plenty of other factors to look at (which I do), but I feel like this is a good baseline consideration later in the draft for a steal. Obviously this excludes international.

Wings in our range that fulfill this requirement: Tyler Bey (might be cheating because he was a post player in college), Tre Jones, Desmond Bane, Cassius Winston (just short with 1.9 DBPM), Devon Dotson, Skylar Mays, Malachi Flynn, Sam Merrill, Payton Pritchard, Mason Jones.

Just a note, Anthony Edwards falls well short of the above benchmarks.

EDIT: I also consider previous season's performances, with the necessary volume, often when doing this. For context, Myles Powell's junior year (when he should have left) would fulfill all of these benchmarks, but he was injured this year and fell short.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#764 » by Negrodamus » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:21 pm

On that note, I'd be fine with leaving this draft with:

Tyler Bey - OBPM - OBPM: 5.2, DBPM: 5.0, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 11.5
Malachi Flynn - OBPM: 7.6, DBPM: 4.1, STL%: 3.2, AST%: 30.7
CJ Elleby - OBPM: 4.7, DBPM: 2.8, STL%: 2.9, AST%: 13.5

All with 75+% FT shooting.

Take three chances at guys with varying degrees of "all star" stats.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#765 » by Kobblehead » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:34 pm

Tyler Bey can't create off the dribble so you're banking pretty hard on his defense. And that's a risky move given that he couldn't guard anyone until his junior year. I can't get behind him as a selection.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#766 » by Negrodamus » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:38 pm

We took the wing version of him in last year's draft, however I feel more confident in his jump shot translating than Thybulle's.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#767 » by Negrodamus » Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:43 pm



For whatever reason, Elleby completely abandoned his passing game this year (probably because he wanted to boost his ppg), but last year he looked like an excellent off guard with vision (20 AST%; 3apg). I have confidence that he'll put on weight and acclimate to a role playing position well early in his career. Also really like his confidence.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#768 » by Negrodamus » Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:59 pm

Kobblehead wrote:I like Uconn's Christian Vital as an undersized off-guard. Excellent catch and shoot player and incredible man-defense on PGs.




The more I'm watching him, I feel like I'm watching a 6'3 version of RoCo. Dude cannot finish at the rim or create for himself, but form looks pretty good and seems to be wet when left alone.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#769 » by Negrodamus » Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:50 am

If we just want to get a guy who will be a 10+ year NBA player as a role player with upside as something more than that, we should just draft Tillie and figure out later how he fits with Embiid and Simmons. Definitely a guy who would be a huge contributor off the bench on both sides of the ball. Way too smart and talented to not pan out. Only concern is his injury history.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#770 » by stormi » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:07 am

I don't see Hampton being there.

Immanuel Quickly and Sam Merrill are my guys. Transform the backcourt in one draft.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#771 » by Kobblehead » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:37 am

stormi wrote:I don't see Hampton being there.

Immanuel Quickly and Sam Merrill are my guys. Transform the backcourt in one draft.

I don't think it wise to put all your eggs in the "shooting" basket.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#772 » by Stanford » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:43 am

Is it just me or does Anthony Edwards suck?
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#773 » by Arsenal » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:43 am

Negrodamus wrote:If we just want to get a guy who will be a 10+ year NBA player as a role player with upside as something more than that, we should just draft Tillie and figure out later how he fits with Embiid and Simmons. Definitely a guy who would be a huge contributor off the bench on both sides of the ball. Way too smart and talented to not pan out. Only concern is his injury history.


I want him with one of our 2nd rounders. Good spot to roll the dice on his health. Looks like he could be a Kleber type if he can stay healthy. Potential 3rd big of the future.

I think he fits well with either Embiid or Simmons. Not with both at the same time, but that won't be his role anyway.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#774 » by Kobblehead » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:44 am

Negrodamus wrote:The more I'm watching him, I feel like I'm watching a 6'3 version of RoCo. Dude cannot finish at the rim or create for himself, but form looks pretty good and seems to be wet when left alone.

Vital is getting screwed with no Summer League setting to show what he can do. If he catches on with someone for training camp, I could see him getting a two-way contract.

He can defend the point of attack and bomb threes. Two pretty covetable skills.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#775 » by stormi » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:49 am

Kobblehead wrote:
stormi wrote:I don't see Hampton being there.

Immanuel Quickly and Sam Merrill are my guys. Transform the backcourt in one draft.

I don't think it wise to put all your eggs in the "shooting" basket.


Maybe Quickley is too similar to Shake... His splits from 3 and the ft line on volume are really impressive though. Almost no assists though
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#776 » by Kobblehead » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:51 am

Stanford wrote:Is it just me or does Anthony Edwards suck?

In a relative way.

He sucks compared to his hype and the impact he'll likely have on winning at the NBA level.

He'll put up scoring figures that trick people into thinking he doesn't suck, though. He'll shoot 6-7 threes a game and score off the dribble a ton in the midrange (because nobody guards it) and easily score 20+ pretty regularly.

Will he play defense? Probably not. Will he be able to get all the way to the rim off the dribble and put pressure on opposing defenses in the paint? Probably not.

Just another Jaylen Brown or prime Jason Richardson.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#777 » by Stanford » Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:53 am

Kobblehead wrote:He sucks compared to his hype and the impact he'll likely have on winning at the NBA level.


Yeah, that's what I meant. He looks like a guy who would normally be selected 7-12 range.

ty for the scouting report.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#778 » by Kobblehead » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:01 am

stormi wrote:Maybe Quickley is too similar to Shake... His splits from 3 and the ft line on volume are really impressive though. Almost no assists though


He can't defend anyone, he doesn't score off the dribble, and (as you mentioned) doesn't really move the ball much. Basically just a 6'3" shooting specialist. I think he's just another iteration of Malik Monk.

The other two Kentucky Gs seem interesting, though.

Hagans is a shutdown defender at PG that has a bit of scoring off the dribble to his game and an optimistic jumpshot projection.

Maxey is a pure bucket getter off the dribble. One of the best 6th man candidates in this class.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#779 » by Arsenal » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:07 am

Most scouting reports I've read rate Quickley as a good defender. He has a 6'10" wingspan. Haven't watched him so have no clue if its correct or not.
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Re: 2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1 

Post#780 » by Kobblehead » Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:11 am

I think there's some tracking data that says there's a low opponent FG% from the guys he defends. Seems fishy and circumstantial, though. He looks like a sieve from everything I look at when judging defense. He and Maxey both look like terrible defenders, to me. Just like Jamal Murray and Malik Monk did.

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