2020 Season/Offseason (FA/Trade) Speculation - the Season Resumes

[Saberestar]

The difference for the Suns with Rubio vs the Knicks with Goran is that Goran is 5 years older. Rubio has time to adjust to a long term project and grow over the next few years with the team. Goran is a guy who needs to be making moves in the playoffs in the next year or two. The MLE is going to be all he gets from anyone that's not Miami, unless he wants to on a terrible Hawks team for the last few years of his career. The issue with Miami, is they only have about 20 million to spend, so it's either they bring Dragic back and no one else, essentially standing pat with their roster, or they let him walk. Now, it's not out of the question that a playoff team offers him the MLE, but you'd have to think the Suns at least get a good sit down and a chance to make their pitch.

They can sign a FA with those $20M to spend and AFTER that sign Dragic for whatever they want going over the cap. I just don't see the problem. They can sign Dragic for $30M / 2 years, guaranteeing only an small part of that second year.

The Heat are a really smart organization. They will not lose a player like Dragic for nothing.

they have to renounce his rights to get under the cap if I am reading this correctly. Renouncing everybody but Dragic still leaves them about 6m over the cap unless Olynyk declines his option

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/miami-heat/cap/2020/

We are talking about Pat Riley here, you can be sure that he will find the way to get it done.

[DirtyDez]

Good chance if Milwaukee loses Giannis wants out, Ayton, Oubre, and #10 get it done? I know Milwaukee would want more but I don't think there is a better deal out there at least I can't think of one for them.

Their roster is a title contender unlike San Antonio when the traded Kawhi and New Orleans when they traded AD. If he’s not a Buck in two years it’s because he walked.

[bwgood77]

Good chance if Milwaukee loses Giannis wants out, Ayton, Oubre, and #10 get it done? I know Milwaukee would want more but I don't think there is a better deal out there at least I can't think of one for them.

You mean if they lose at all in the playoffs? Why do you think he would want out? If you mean lose to Orlando I don't see that happening. Sure they lost game 1 but so did the Raptors last year and they won it all.

I still think Toronto is going to be tough to beat in the east though. And Miami will be a very tough out. Boston looks pretty tough too. But I still don't know why Giannis would demand out of a contender unless he just hates the coach, teammates or city and I haven't heard anything about that.

[bwgood77]

Just looking at the first picks OKC is owed (was wondering about a Chris Paul + picks for Ben Simmons trade). They have quite the war chest. How happy would you be Ghost if we had this many picks?

I guess for me man, It would depend upon the particular draft and it's talent level/ depth/ etc.

I don't know man. You seem to think every other player in this draft is "elite" in some respect or another!

In this draft? It's every draft. But the desire to do the in depth research of every player is impressive. He should start his own draft site. Many of the draft sites don't have much research or rarely have any articles. Just a hunch, but I would be Ghost's site wouldn't lack for content and you wouldn't have to wait long for it.

[SunsLyf3]

Any interest in Josh Richardson as our back up SG? He makes 10 mill and has a PO for 2021(probably opts out for more money). Given the horrible situation Philly is in with their cap we might be able to get him for nothing.

Edit: Ty Jerome for Josh Richardson and right to swap picks next year depending which one is better.

[bwgood77]

The more I study this offseason, the more I think it's setting up pretty perfectly for the Suns.

There was an article posted further up about the Suns operating as an over the cap team, and that seems to make the most sense to me based on the exceptions we'd get if we did so. If I were the Suns, I would be looking to run my offseason in the following manner:

Draft:
For me, I'm all in on Obi Toppin. The Suns need an above the rim finisher. He does enough well that I'm sold on him as a guy that can work well within our offense (good BBIQ, moves the ball well, finishes strong), and play a nice two man game with Rubio. Will he be there at 10? I dont know, but I'd be willing to trade some future draft capital to make sure we can move up to get him. I think this will be one of the easier drafts to move up in, because its not a super attractive class, and teams are concerned with finances in the Corona Era. Jumping from 10 to 5 or so could be fairly cheap and easy.

Free Agency:
We bring back Dario, Carter and pick up the option on Cam Payne. We let Diallo and Kaminsky walk, and waive Okobo. This is less about cap room and more about finding upgrades to those guys. I wouldn't be opposed to a Baynes return, but it depends on the length of the deal and the money involved (This is another advantage of operating as an over the cap team, we don't have to renounce his rights to make space)

I think we make Goran Dragic the priority signing with the MLE. We make a STRONG pitch for him to become our 6th man and floor general when Rubio sits. He fits our team well, gets a chance to finish his Phoenix story on a positive and he won't get offered more money elsewhere.

Next, we have the BAE, and I think we go with a 4 or 5 for that. Some names that stand out are, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Not sure what the market for big men will be, but it's a deep, if unspectacular, class and most teams are probably keeping their powder dry for 2021. These guys can get bigger contracts with teams like Sacramento or Atlanta, but if they want to be in it with a chance to make some playoff noise, the Suns might be the better option. All three of them are still young and could continue to grow. My preference of the group would be Parker. Considering he's made some decent money so far, and has some serious flashes in his game.

If this all plays out the way I laid out, (no guarantee of that) we'd have a lineup of the following.

Rubio-Payne-Carter
Booker-Dragic
Mikal-Oubre
Cam-Parker-Toppin
Ayton-Saric-Baynes?

That's an incredibly solid rotation, and allows Monty to genuinely play the hot hand. Further we have cover at every position in case of a long or short term injury. The second unit is easily the best in the league, and you could play lineups like Carter, Payne, Oubre, Mikal, Saric lineup if you wanted to really hustle and hound the opposition (think about playing against that group on the second night of a back to back). You've got plenty of shooting, good rebounding, and good shot creation.

I know the biggest flaw in the plan is: would one of those big men play for the BAE? My thinking is this, you play for 2 years on the BAE, get into the playoffs with Phoenix and either force the Suns to pay you well, or, for all those guys, you're still in your mid-20s and can easily get a big contract somewhere else.

Alright, that's enough roster-bating for one day.

If we don't keep Baynes, I don't think we can work as an over the cap team throughout all of FA, unless we give Saric and Carter really inflated contracts to put us over. If we didn't renounce Baynes immediately, we could use the MLE, but if he left, that would drop us to an under the cap team and the MLE money we spent would use up our cap space.

Basically, we have the same amount of cap space whether or not we keep Baynes (I think you are talking about this article which explains that. https://thefourpointplay.substack.com/p/vol-1-iss-7-time-for-sarver-to-put

Basically Sarver could spend up to or just over the cap by keeping Baynes, Saric, Carter and Payne, and then use the MLE and BAE, or keep Saric, Carter and Payne and be an under the cap team and have about as much cap space to use if we were operating over the cap, with our space and the room exception.

From the article, Scenario 1 is not bringing back anyone and creating max cap space.

Scenario 2: The Predictable Move - Under The Cap
Our next scenario involves the Suns still going into Free Agency with cap space but with a few more of the positive Bubble bodies still on the roster. However, in order to do so we end up with an underwhelming amount of cap space; $9,214,565.

Much like Scenario 1, we would again have that money to spend, the Room MLE and any extra Veteran Minimum contracts needed. To add to the following:

Cam Payne on his team friendly $1.9mil contract with just $25,000 guaranteed.

Cap Holds for Dario Saric & Jevon Carter, allowing you to match any RFA offer they get and spend over the cap if necessary to retain them.

The draft prospect the Suns just took at #10 in the NBA Draft.

So unlike Scenario 1, the Suns may only need to fill three roster spots instead of up to six. They’d have $13,981,565 in combined space and exception money to fill those spots

Scenario 3: The Right Move - Over The Cap
Full disclosure, this is the move I’m advocating for. The Suns can easily enter Free Agency as an “Over The Cap” team, by keeping a bunch of their free agents cap holds on the books and exceeding the $109.1mil cap line.

Of course, this means they have no cap space to spend in Free Agency but it doesn’t mean they won’t be players in the market. NBA teams over the cap have access to the Non-Taxpayer MLE ($9.258mil) and BAE ($3.623mil), both of which can be spread across multiple players if need be. That’s a total $12,881,000, which you will notice is slightly less than in Scenario 2 but the benefits still outweigh that minuscule drop in available funds.

Spoiler:

Below is my list of 7-ity-bity-reasons why this is the right move for Mr. Sarver and his Phoenix Suns:

Baynesability - Last but certainly not least, Aron Baynes. There’s no escaping the fact that the main difference between Scenario 2 and 3 is the existence of the 6’10 Aussie on the roster. For me, the choice is simple. You can potentially bring him back to play on & off court mentor to Ayton or you can let him go and try and replace him with a minimum salary backup big. The guy that clearly helped your franchise C in Year 2 and that joined the team in Orlando immediately after clearing Covid regulations. Only to log zero minutes, no less. And all it costs is a few million out of Sarver’s back pocket.

Continuity - The Suns could do with some continuity. Devin Booker could do with some continuity. Especially on the back of the inspired Bubble run. This approach would see every Suns player from the 19/20 season return minus Diallo, Kaminsky and Okobo. In what is sure to be a weird new season, whenever it starts, I get the feeling the teams with the least amount of turnover will start well. And damn, has it been a while since a team in purple and orange had that.

Flexibility - Phoenix could try re-sign Saric, Baynes and Carter on inflated two year deals with team options for the second year. When you are signing over the cap, the first year salary really doesn’t matter for anything other than Sarver’s bank account. And it might be just enough incentive to the players, to give the flexibility of a team option to preserve cap space for next off-season (in case you’re wondering, my mock scenario could still leave the Suns with options to open up Max Cap Space next off-season). If this happens for any of the above three players under this kind of scenario, just remember to remind yourself - the first year figure doesn’t matter. It can be $15mil for all I care.

Activity - The Suns of the not too distant past have had an issue when it comes to trading for the next NBA borderline star that comes onto the market. There has been a lack of attractive assets for one but also a lack of useful contracts to use in a trade. All of a sudden the Suns would have expiring deals in the form of Kelly Oubre, Dario Saric, Aron Baynes and Jevon Carter. These could all range from anywhere between $5-$15mil and be extremely useful in moving the needle for the Suns. Most importantly, they can kick the can a little further down the road and bide their time to wait for the right deal for what they need to make a leap.

Quality - The Bubble Suns went 8-0. It was an impressive feat for a team missing Oubre and Baynes from the regular rotation and relying on heavy minutes from some lesser knowns. The rigours of an 82 game season present more challenges than an 8 game tournament style run. How nice would it be as a Suns fan to hold out hope for the Playoffs, without needing absolutely everything to go right? Truth is, you rarely get the best case scenario in the NBA. An undefeated Bubble team PLUS Oubre and Baynes PLUS two NBA veterans. Yes please!

Diversity - Devin Booker is ready to make the Playoffs. He’s been ready. This approach surrounds him with a good amount of NBA experience to make the post season but doesn’t sacrifice the long term view in return. The Suns have an opportunity to give Devin up to 6 teammates who are in the regular rotation, that have similar or more NBA experience than he does. Add that to the young core of Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson plus a newly drafted rookie, and their are a variety of options going forward for the team in the Valley.

Parity - This one is the smallest of the 7 reasons but is important nonetheless. The Non-Taxpayer Mid Level Exception (MLE) is bound to be a competitive market in the upcoming Free Agency Period. Scenario 2 leaves the Suns with slightly less than the MLE in cap space and therefore at a disadvantage. It’s a tiny difference but when you also factor in the 5% raises year on year, it can start to play a part in Free Agency targets choosing elsewhere.

[Revived]

If the Clippers offered Paul George for Kelly Oubre and #10 I wonder if the Suns would take it. We would have to include Kaminsky and renounce rights to Baynes for it to work salary cap wise I think.

George is useless for any team trying to get far in the playoffs (like Clippers) because he’s awful in the playoffs.

For us, we’re trying to make into the playoffs by playing well in the regular season so he can very effective for that. We can dump him later too once we solidify being a perennial playoff team.

[bwgood77]

If the Clippers offered Paul George for Kelly Oubre and #10 I wonder if the Suns would take it. We would have to include Kaminsky and renounce rights to Baynes for it to work salary cap wise I think.

George is useless for any team trying to get far in the playoffs (like Clippers) because he’s awful in the playoffs.

For us, we’re trying to make into the playoffs by playing well in the regular season so he can very effective for that. We can dump him later too once we solidify being a perennial playoff team.

Of course they would. That's like #10 for a top 10-15 player, since Oubre an upcoming FA anyway. And he is just having a bad playoffs this year. Last year he was scoring over 28 ppg on over 58% TS%, 8.6 reb, 3.6 ast, 1.4 stl.

Could you imagine Rubio/Booker/Briges/PG13/Ayton? That's a playoff team for sure. And a bench with Baynes, Saric, Cam and our backup guards plus whatever rookie would be tough.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Just looking at the first picks OKC is owed (was wondering about a Chris Paul + picks for Ben Simmons trade). They have quite the war chest. How happy would you be Ghost if we had this many picks?

I guess for me man, It would depend upon the particular draft and it's talent level/ depth/ etc.

I don't know man. You seem to think every other player in this draft is "elite" in some respect or another!

j/k GoK. You know I love you.

It's cool man!
I got nothing but love and respect for ya' too!
Admittedly, I realize that I can be at times somewhat of a hyperbolic optimist in terms of the potential projected ceilings for prospects. Although some of my projections are not really that different or far off from various NBA pundits perspectives like Kevin O' Conner( Ringer).
https://nbadraft.theringer.com
So perhaps I might not in bad company too much huh?
I also realize that those high end outcomes are highly individualistic and circumstantial and predominantly reserved for players that are lucky enough to fall into the perfect situation, With a team that develops them properly, And actually recognizes their respective elite potential attributes and skill sets, And then utilizes them within the team scheme, to foster the optimal growth/outcome. But for me, I genuinely call it like I see it, In identifying these attributes and individual elite skills, And then offer their "ultimate ceiling" outcome.

Now just because a particular team may not also see that potential in a prospect, Or may not have have the proper development structure in place for a prospect to be properly utilized, Resulting in a diminished likelihood of them potentially realizing that ceiling doesn't mean it doesn't exist, Or isn't really attainable. Ultimately, My point is that I Do realize that alot of things need to break right for these prospects to have a chance to reach those lofty outcomes. But that again, is on the franchise really more than the prospect.I'm just sharing the potential elite inherent abilities each prospect possesses to have those ultimate ceilings. The rest is up to the teams that draft them to get them there! So as crazy as it sometimes appears, I'll stand by my observations. If nothing else, They have to be wildly entertaining and somewhat comical relief for many on a potentially boring, monotonous day right?

By the way, Glad to see that you coming around on Jalen Smith more brother. I agree with you on many observations for him. And do agree that he's likely the perfect backup 3 and D 4/5 compliment to Cam/Ayton. And should easily replace Kaminsky. I'm also pleased to see BWgood coming somewhat around on Tyler Beys' potential as a premium value ( late first) versatile/switchable 3-5 (backup wing/Oubre insurance)? defensive play maker, IF we should miss out on Vassell or Okoro (although, not really a fan of his lack of perimeter skills) for consideration.At minimum, I see T Bey as a defensive version of Tyreese Haliburton, Due to his IQ, Elite defensive awareness, defensive play making, and versatility. Unorthodox yet reliable jumpshot, And his ability to impact a game (defensively) without really needing the ball in his hands. Having said all this I fully expect Jones to secretly be coveting Saddiq Bey for his mediocre athleticism, underwhelming speed, Yet high IQ, defensive versatility and efficient shooting. He'll become this years' Cam Johnson for us. Count on it!

He'll most likely be our "reach" pick at 10! ( IF both Haliburton and Vassell are off the board).

[Ghost of Kleine]

I guess for me man, It would depend upon the particular draft and it's talent level/ depth/ etc.

I don't know man. You seem to think every other player in this draft is "elite" in some respect or another!

In this draft? It's every draft. But the desire to do the in depth research of every player is impressive. He should start his own draft site. Many of the draft sites don't have much research or rarely have any articles. Just a hunch, but I would be fairly confident that Ghost's site wouldn't lack for content and you wouldn't have to wait long for it.

You're not wrong of course man!
Of course I do my part to add somewhat comical and hyperbolic perspectives, That obviously illicit shock value and head shaking laughs on this forum. Just doing my part to add variance to any potential monotony on here. If nothing else, it's got to at least be entertaining and definitely thought provoking to most. Also, I appreciate the positive slant response you gave. It's much appreciated. Hey! perhaps someday soon, I can become this forums' version of Stephen A. Smith ehhhh?

[dremill24]

If the Clippers offered Paul George for Kelly Oubre and #10 I wonder if the Suns would take it. We would have to include Kaminsky and renounce rights to Baynes for it to work salary cap wise I think.

George is useless for any team trying to get far in the playoffs (like Clippers) because he’s awful in the playoffs.

For us, we’re trying to make into the playoffs by playing well in the regular season so he can very effective for that. We can dump him later too once we solidify being a perennial playoff team.

Uh...what?

[BobbieL]

If the Clippers offered Paul George for Kelly Oubre and #10 I wonder if the Suns would take it. We would have to include Kaminsky and renounce rights to Baynes for it to work salary cap wise I think.

George is useless for any team trying to get far in the playoffs (like Clippers) because he’s awful in the playoffs.

For us, we’re trying to make into the playoffs by playing well in the regular season so he can very effective for that. We can dump him later too once we solidify being a perennial playoff team.

Of course they would. That's like #10 for a top 10-15 player, since Oubre an upcoming FA anyway. And he is just having a bad playoffs this year. Last year he was scoring over 28 ppg on over 58% TS%, 8.6 reb, 3.6 ast, 1.4 stl.

Could you imagine Rubio/Booker/Briges/PG13/Ayton? That's a playoff team for sure. And a bench with Baynes, Saric, Cam and our backup guards plus whatever rookie would be tough.

I would take that deal for sure! YOu kidding me - I would probably add another first round draft pick.

Where do I sign up for that team. Paul George with Booker Bridges and Ayton would be amazing. I can't even dream about that

I guess the question is - is there a player on a team that might want to move salary as things didn't work. Obvious answer is Philly - but I don't want Horford. I just don't see George as an option but hey - if they lose to the Mavs - I might make the call. Granted, the Clippers would want Bridges and "No deal!!"

[JDJ26]

If the Clippers offered Paul George for Kelly Oubre and #10 I wonder if the Suns would take it. We would have to include Kaminsky and renounce rights to Baynes for it to work salary cap wise I think.

George is useless for any team trying to get far in the playoffs (like Clippers) because he’s awful in the playoffs.

For us, we’re trying to make into the playoffs by playing well in the regular season so he can very effective for that. We can dump him later too once we solidify being a perennial playoff team.

I wouldn't want Paul George on this team.

He doesn't attack the basket anymore and settles for 3pt shots too much.

Suns need a starting PF more than another wing player.

[sunskerr]

Suns need a starting PF more than another wing player.

Year: 2020

[MrMiyagi]

Reading this thread is exhausting. Can't we just keep what we've got and draft someone at 10?

Why does it always seem like we've got 12 guys trying to peddle ridiculous trades like this is NBA 2k?

We're good, we're young. Can't we just enjoy that until proven otherwise next season?

[JDJ26]

Reading this thread is exhausting. Can't we just keep what we've got and draft someone at 10?

Why does it always seem like we've got 12 guys trying to peddle ridiculous trades like this is NBA 2k?

We're good, we're young. Can't we just enjoy that until proven otherwise next season?

I agree. We need to just take the best player available at 10 and round out the bench.

This upcoming offseason isn't the offseason to try and spend big.

[TeamTragic]

Reading this thread is exhausting. Can't we just keep what we've got and draft someone at 10?

Why does it always seem like we've got 12 guys trying to peddle ridiculous trades like this is NBA 2k?

We're good, we're young. Can't we just enjoy that until proven otherwise next season?

I agree. We need to just take the best player available at 10 and round out the bench.

This upcoming offseason isn't the offseason to try and spend big.

Just to be clear I want to bring back the same team. Ayton learned his lesson and we will have him back for an entire season.

Keep Oubre if he can be had for a good price. Draft a good bench player and come back hungry for next season.

[JDJ26]

Reading this thread is exhausting. Can't we just keep what we've got and draft someone at 10?

Why does it always seem like we've got 12 guys trying to peddle ridiculous trades like this is NBA 2k?

We're good, we're young. Can't we just enjoy that until proven otherwise next season?

I agree. We need to just take the best player available at 10 and round out the bench.

This upcoming offseason isn't the offseason to try and spend big.

Just to be clear I want to bring back the same team. Ayton learned his lesson and we will have him back for an entire season.

Keep Oubre if he can be had for a good price. Draft a good bench player and come back hungry for next season.

My only concern with Oubre is next season is a contract year for Oubre and he probably doesn't want to come off the bench.

If he becomes disgruntled hopefully James Jones is smart enough to move him and not wait until the trade deadline or let him walk for nothing.

[Ghost of Kleine]

Any interest in Josh Richardson as our back up SG? He makes 10 mill and has a PO for 2021(probably opts out for more money). Given the horrible situation Philly is in with their cap we might be able to get him for nothing.

Edit: Ty Jerome for Josh Richardson and right to swap picks next year depending which one is better.

Good question man, Richardson is definitely an intriguing consideration.
There have actually been proposals made on the trade board for a swap of Richardson for the 10. I countered with a 10 for Richardson/21/36th picks. The consensus on value overall was split, Bully king personally felt though that it should be Richardson alone for the 10th pick. Citing him having high value as a defensive wing, And high trade value contractually at 10 million ( expiring in 2021), But then I submitted this:
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Josh+Richardson&player_id1_select=Josh+Richardson&player_id1=richajo01&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Justin+Holiday&player_id2_select=Justin+Holiday&player_id2=holidju01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2020
Now as it shows, On slightly less minutes, Holiday actually beats Richardson in most categories, Aside from free throw%, FG% and overall points. The points differential could be argued due to the slightly less minutes played ( around 5 or so). He's also a really god defender with play making and ISO abilities, And could likely be had in free agency for around maybe 5-7 million. And without giving up the 10th overall pick. So for the value to honestly be fair, More value would need to come back. I didn't receive a legitimate response at that point.


Also, I find this to be interesting too!
Trevelin Queen/ Josh Richardson comparison
http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=trevelin-queen--josh-richardson

Again here, You'll find a similiar outcome, Wherein Queen actually bests Richardson in the majority of statistical categories, And is currently projected as a late 2nd -undrafted prospect. So essentially (if projections translate reasonably) You can get a very similiar player for nothing more than a late 2nd or even a two way contract! And yet somehow, Many people seem to miss this potential value? My overall argument being the availability of players with very similiar skill sets, abilities, and better production in some areas for much cheaper overall cost. Ultimately, Their (unstated goal) is really to obtain the 10th pick, And then flip it to Detroit for Luke Kennard, As they covet his shooting/play making, Which they sorely lack. Anyways, My final offer is/would be:

The 10th pick/ Ty Jerome (clear roster spot) for Richardson/Broekhoff (*cheaper bargain version of Kennard/Joe Harris)/19th/36th pick. This proposal had a split consensus with half liking it, The other half unsure.
I specifically choose this package as then we could then draft-
19- Jalen Smith or Paul Reed.
Both translate as Elite 3 and D big man 4/5 options for us.With Smith being a much better floor spacer, And Reed being a much better switchable, fluid perimeter defender due to his length, mobility. And still an elite rim protector too.

36- Daniel Oturu/ or Vernon Carey, Either would provide us with really dominant post defense and rim protection behind Ayton, Without sacrificing our floor spacing, As either are really good three point shooters, Whilst still blocking a lot of shots too!

[Revived]

Reading this thread is exhausting. Can't we just keep what we've got and draft someone at 10?

Why does it always seem like we've got 12 guys trying to peddle ridiculous trades like this is NBA 2k?

We're good, we're young. Can't we just enjoy that until proven otherwise next season?

Our draft record speaks for itself. I don’t think it’s that unreasonable that some would rather trade the pick if we can get a proven impact player than to spend it on an unknown.

Especially for a draft that’s being projected by many to be the worst since 2013.

Of course I wouldn’t just trade the pick for the sake of trading it. Like the Saric trade for example.