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2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th!

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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1001 » by cjbulls » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:30 am

GimmeDat wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
I mean, if this is the worst you have on an 18 yo center playing their first collegiate games, I'm not sure if you proved your point. Surely we aren't going to nitpick a couple of hand selected bad decisions? And yes, I am one who hates when people post mix tapes as well.

I'm not a big Wiseman fan, but I see the appeal of picking him. He arguably has the highest upside of any player in the draft, despite being a center.I always thought the general rule of thumb for bad drafts is to just take the highest upside player because you're likely to miss no matter who you pick.


Those clips aren't my arguments against Wiseman. There's a bunch of knocks - he's not very good laterally, his awareness/help on D isn't very good, not a good passer and can't create shots for himself really. If you want a detailed breakdown, this is an amazing article from the same guy, Spencer -

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/01/24/james-wiseman-scouting-report/

If we go back to my initial comparison with Poku, it's hard not to think that Poku has higher upside. He's listed at 7 foot, apparently he's grown another inch and a half since then, he's further along as a catch and shoot player and has shown the ability to shoot off basically guard actions, off movement, pulling up, etc... his passing is some of the best we've seen from a big basically ever, has great 'stocks' and is a solid rebounder.

It's more of a risk in terms of him putting on the strength to defend and score adequately in the paint, but he's probably a 4 full-time, plus his base is actually solid, he's just got a stick thin upper body right now.. but he's also the youngest player in the draft.

Look at these statistical pre-draft comparisons -

Image

If swinging for ultimate upside is the goal, Poku's the guy, imo. Will he go top 10? Highly unlikely. Should he? I think, probably.

I think there's this conflation between being massive/doing exciting blocks/dunks equaling high upside that is making everyone think Wiseman has a high upside. Wiseman is a damn gazelle down the court, and can dunk the **** out of the ball when he gets to load up. But I dare say Poku's actual fluidity of movement and coordination for his size are similarly freakish in terms of athleticism.


Not quite sure what we should be excited about there? Poku's numbers compared to a random selection of guys, most if not all of whom played in an entirely different league doesn't say much to me. Then you go on to point out he's a 4, whereby we already have a sweet shooting 7' 4-man and another lottery 5 who thinks he's a 4. But I have seen no video on him so I don't want to judge him yet (although that 41%FG shooting is alarming)
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1002 » by Leslie Forman » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:42 am

I've been trying to figure out who Toppin reminds me of…

…it's Derrick Williams. Everything is straight line power stuff. Everything. There's a little more back-to-the-basket post game, but that's about as useful as tits on a bull.

This draft just keeps looking worse and worse the more research I do.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1003 » by cjbulls » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:50 am

PaKii94 wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
PaKii94 wrote:
Small sample size is what we have for either way. You can't discount the bad just to focus on the good. The truly winning players heavily balance to the "right" play a lot more often even in college


I'm not saying to ignore it. I'm saying a couple of clips with a bad finish amount to nothing. I might as well throw in a clip of him making a 3 and call him Steph Curry. The reality is in VERY limited time he had a 76% TS%. So choosing a clip of him missing a shot from one of those games isn't a realistic representation of the situation.


It's not if he made the shot or not. It's the shot selection process. You would want him to bully the smaller players. Instead he fadeaways


But then you're ignoring all of the other dunks and plays he makes around the hoop. 76% TS. Nor are you acknowledging that bullying smaller players would be one of the easiest fixes for an 18yo if it were an actual issue.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1004 » by Chewie » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:50 am

weneeda2guard wrote:
PlayerUp wrote:
weneeda2guard wrote:I'm sold on obi toppin


Initially his age seems like a turnoff but it shouldn't be. He's a sophomore and a late bloomer that is just now rounding out his skillsets figuring it out. It's one thing if you're a senior at his age just graduating but he started late.

Obi Toppin is quite possibly our best bet to be a #1 option among the lottery picks. High motor, strong, athletic. May have the "it" factor. We should not discount him because of his age and other flaws in his game.

I really believe if he was given the opportunity to perform in March madness he would have played himself into a top 2 pick. We need to find the steal in the draftnajd and I think he might be it. I see the work ethic as he played himself into a top draft pick he has a back to the basket game he can score from outside he plays above the rim and as you said he has that it factor. I think he legit might be the one a few years from now teams will be asking why did they pass him up.


Was all in on Obi after watching clips but you have to look at the weaknesses as well and it's easy to fall off that bandwagon.

Start @ 5:24...that high center of gravity/stiffness, just terrible footwork and awareness. Just so much to work on defensively. Can say all you want about it being an offensive league but defense counts for something. If Bulls coaches can look at that and say oh that is all easily fixable then GREAT but IDK...this is pretty damning stuff. Not for the weak of heart:
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1005 » by Shill » Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:54 am

Leslie Forman wrote:This draft just keeps looking worse and worse the more research I do.



It's depressing, honestly.

There really isn't even anyone to take a flier on.

It's like 2000 all over again.
Scottie Pippen's response to whom he would pick for his running mate, Michael or LeBron: "That's a dumbass question. I've never done anything with LeBron. I wouldn't take LeBron to the movies."
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1006 » by Jcool0 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:06 am

Shill wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:This draft just keeps looking worse and worse the more research I do.



It's depressing, honestly.

There really isn't even anyone to take a flier on.

It's like 2000 all over again.


I remember 2009 was supposed to be a bad draft. Steph Curry, James Harden and DeMar DeRozan were all taken in the top 10.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1007 » by R3AL1TY » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:11 am

Toppin can probably gain more effort and awareness on defense once he goes through more player development. But I'm wondering if his recent improvement with the 3 ball is fool's gold. It won't be good if all he can do well once next season starts is dunk with no range and footwork skills.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1008 » by GimmeDat » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:13 am

cjbulls wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
I mean, if this is the worst you have on an 18 yo center playing their first collegiate games, I'm not sure if you proved your point. Surely we aren't going to nitpick a couple of hand selected bad decisions? And yes, I am one who hates when people post mix tapes as well.

I'm not a big Wiseman fan, but I see the appeal of picking him. He arguably has the highest upside of any player in the draft, despite being a center.I always thought the general rule of thumb for bad drafts is to just take the highest upside player because you're likely to miss no matter who you pick.


Those clips aren't my arguments against Wiseman. There's a bunch of knocks - he's not very good laterally, his awareness/help on D isn't very good, not a good passer and can't create shots for himself really. If you want a detailed breakdown, this is an amazing article from the same guy, Spencer -

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/01/24/james-wiseman-scouting-report/

If we go back to my initial comparison with Poku, it's hard not to think that Poku has higher upside. He's listed at 7 foot, apparently he's grown another inch and a half since then, he's further along as a catch and shoot player and has shown the ability to shoot off basically guard actions, off movement, pulling up, etc... his passing is some of the best we've seen from a big basically ever, has great 'stocks' and is a solid rebounder.

It's more of a risk in terms of him putting on the strength to defend and score adequately in the paint, but he's probably a 4 full-time, plus his base is actually solid, he's just got a stick thin upper body right now.. but he's also the youngest player in the draft.

Look at these statistical pre-draft comparisons -

Image

If swinging for ultimate upside is the goal, Poku's the guy, imo. Will he go top 10? Highly unlikely. Should he? I think, probably.

I think there's this conflation between being massive/doing exciting blocks/dunks equaling high upside that is making everyone think Wiseman has a high upside. Wiseman is a damn gazelle down the court, and can dunk the **** out of the ball when he gets to load up. But I dare say Poku's actual fluidity of movement and coordination for his size are similarly freakish in terms of athleticism.


Not quite sure what we should be excited about there? Poku's numbers compared to a random selection of guys, most if not all of whom played in an entirely different league doesn't say much to me. Then you go on to point out he's a 4, whereby we already have a sweet shooting 7' 4-man and another lottery 5 who thinks he's a 4. But I have seen no video on him so I don't want to judge him yet (although that 41%FG shooting is alarming)


That's fine if you're not excited - not sure I'd call that group a 'random selection of guys' though.

We already have a 4, okay. We already have a 5, too, not sure what you're point is. AK already said it - you go BPA this high up in the draft. Beyond that, Lauri has faaaar from proven himself as a cornerstone going forward and he's an RFA in 2021.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1009 » by weneeda2guard » Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:19 am

Chewie wrote:
weneeda2guard wrote:
PlayerUp wrote:
Initially his age seems like a turnoff but it shouldn't be. He's a sophomore and a late bloomer that is just now rounding out his skillsets figuring it out. It's one thing if you're a senior at his age just graduating but he started late.

Obi Toppin is quite possibly our best bet to be a #1 option among the lottery picks. High motor, strong, athletic. May have the "it" factor. We should not discount him because of his age and other flaws in his game.

I really believe if he was given the opportunity to perform in March madness he would have played himself into a top 2 pick. We need to find the steal in the draftnajd and I think he might be it. I see the work ethic as he played himself into a top draft pick he has a back to the basket game he can score from outside he plays above the rim and as you said he has that it factor. I think he legit might be the one a few years from now teams will be asking why did they pass him up.


Was all in on Obi after watching clips but you have to look at the weaknesses as well and it's easy to fall off that bandwagon.

Start @ 5:24...that high center of gravity/stiffness, just terrible footwork and awareness. Just so much to work on defensively. Can say all you want about it being an offensive league but defense counts for something. If Bulls coaches can look at that and say oh that is all easily fixable then GREAT but IDK...this is pretty damning stuff. Not for the weak of heart:

Just about every high pick coming into the league outside of zion had questions on their defensive awareness coming out of college.

And there are a ton of stars in the league who don't play defense. I'm totally fine with allowing someone to develop that part of their game once they get in the league. There are holes in the games of everyone coming into the draft this year. It is seriously drafting on potential and getting lucky.

BTW there are instances of players who got praise for their defensive awareness coming out of college got to the league and their defense fell apart because the game was too fast for them. So it can work both ways. We not getting finished product with anyone we select at 4th. Obi imo has the most upside. He could potentially be the most talented player in the draft.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1010 » by gobullschi » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:17 am

weneeda2guard wrote:
Chewie wrote:
weneeda2guard wrote:I really believe if he was given the opportunity to perform in March madness he would have played himself into a top 2 pick. We need to find the steal in the draftnajd and I think he might be it. I see the work ethic as he played himself into a top draft pick he has a back to the basket game he can score from outside he plays above the rim and as you said he has that it factor. I think he legit might be the one a few years from now teams will be asking why did they pass him up.


Was all in on Obi after watching clips but you have to look at the weaknesses as well and it's easy to fall off that bandwagon.

Start @ 5:24...that high center of gravity/stiffness, just terrible footwork and awareness. Just so much to work on defensively. Can say all you want about it being an offensive league but defense counts for something. If Bulls coaches can look at that and say oh that is all easily fixable then GREAT but IDK...this is pretty damning stuff. Not for the weak of heart:

Just about every high pick coming into the league outside of zion had questions on their defensive awareness coming out of college.

And there are a ton of stars in the league who don't play defense. I'm totally fine with allowing someone to develop that part of their game once they get in the league. There are holes in the games of everyone coming into the draft this year. It is seriously drafting on potential and getting lucky.

BTW there are instances of players who got praise for their defensive awareness coming out of college got to the league and their defense fell apart because the game was too fast for them. So it can work both ways. We not getting finished product with anyone we select at 4th. Obi imo has the most upside. He could potentially be the most talented player in the draft.


I agree that the high center of gravity/stiffness is a legit concern. That is probably why most people see him as a center. It's a bit surprising considering he was a guard for the majority of his basketball career. Defensively, a late growth spurt (7 inches) might explain some defensive awareness issues because of a position change. If you listen to his conversation with Mike Schmitz you can tell he's a bright kid that understands what he needs to do, but on the court he isn't processing quick enough.

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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1011 » by cjbulls » Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:50 am

GimmeDat wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
Those clips aren't my arguments against Wiseman. There's a bunch of knocks - he's not very good laterally, his awareness/help on D isn't very good, not a good passer and can't create shots for himself really. If you want a detailed breakdown, this is an amazing article from the same guy, Spencer -

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/01/24/james-wiseman-scouting-report/

If we go back to my initial comparison with Poku, it's hard not to think that Poku has higher upside. He's listed at 7 foot, apparently he's grown another inch and a half since then, he's further along as a catch and shoot player and has shown the ability to shoot off basically guard actions, off movement, pulling up, etc... his passing is some of the best we've seen from a big basically ever, has great 'stocks' and is a solid rebounder.

It's more of a risk in terms of him putting on the strength to defend and score adequately in the paint, but he's probably a 4 full-time, plus his base is actually solid, he's just got a stick thin upper body right now.. but he's also the youngest player in the draft.

Look at these statistical pre-draft comparisons -

Image

If swinging for ultimate upside is the goal, Poku's the guy, imo. Will he go top 10? Highly unlikely. Should he? I think, probably.

I think there's this conflation between being massive/doing exciting blocks/dunks equaling high upside that is making everyone think Wiseman has a high upside. Wiseman is a damn gazelle down the court, and can dunk the **** out of the ball when he gets to load up. But I dare say Poku's actual fluidity of movement and coordination for his size are similarly freakish in terms of athleticism.


Not quite sure what we should be excited about there? Poku's numbers compared to a random selection of guys, most if not all of whom played in an entirely different league doesn't say much to me. Then you go on to point out he's a 4, whereby we already have a sweet shooting 7' 4-man and another lottery 5 who thinks he's a 4. But I have seen no video on him so I don't want to judge him yet (although that 41%FG shooting is alarming)


That's fine if you're not excited - not sure I'd call that group a 'random selection of guys' though.

We already have a 4, okay. We already have a 5, too, not sure what you're point is. AK already said it - you go BPA this high up in the draft. Beyond that, Lauri has faaaar from proven himself as a cornerstone going forward and he's an RFA in 2021.


It is random on your part to pick some guys who are unrelated in playing style and play in a different league in a different year to compare numbers. We know that guys can put up stats depending on their level of competition and counting stats generally have a weak correlation to NBA success.

I could have just as easily pulled numbers for Jahlil Okafor, Dragan Bender, Anthony Bennett, Eddie Griffin, Yi Jianlian as my selection and see how Poku fits in. There'd be just as close a connection.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1012 » by GimmeDat » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:02 am

cjbulls wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
Not quite sure what we should be excited about there? Poku's numbers compared to a random selection of guys, most if not all of whom played in an entirely different league doesn't say much to me. Then you go on to point out he's a 4, whereby we already have a sweet shooting 7' 4-man and another lottery 5 who thinks he's a 4. But I have seen no video on him so I don't want to judge him yet (although that 41%FG shooting is alarming)


That's fine if you're not excited - not sure I'd call that group a 'random selection of guys' though.

We already have a 4, okay. We already have a 5, too, not sure what you're point is. AK already said it - you go BPA this high up in the draft. Beyond that, Lauri has faaaar from proven himself as a cornerstone going forward and he's an RFA in 2021.


It is random on your part to pick some guys who are unrelated in playing style and play in a different league in a different year to compare numbers. We know that guys can put up stats depending on their level of competition and counting stats generally have a weak correlation to NBA success.

I could have just as easily pulled numbers for Jahlil Okafor, Dragan Bender, Anthony Bennett, Eddie Griffin, Yi Jianlian as my selection and see how Poku fits in. There'd be just as close a connection.


There is something to be said for the uniqueness of those statistical profiles, and the correlation between those players outputs -it's elite company. Regardless of minor distinctions between competition, it's just a rare crop regardless. Those players are the best/most promising bigs in the league. If you were to pulled those numbers up for the players you mentioned, or any other 'random' crop of bigs, they would absolutely pale in comparison.

Throwing everything the stats, eye test and more reveals about a player purely because of an obscure situation is what causes guys like Giannis and Porzingis to go underrated through the pre-draft process.

You can also go look up his play in FIBA in the junior European and World Cup's in 2018 and 2019, where his skills translated against some of the best prospects of his age group. He thoroughly destroyed Ariel Hukporti, a projected 2021 lottery pick who plays against grown men and is physically NBA ready when they played against Germany, for instance.

If you would like further reading and the context of that table, here's a link - https://uproxx.com/dimemag/aleksej-pokusevski-2020-nba-draft-scouting-report/
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1013 » by PlayerUp » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:03 am

Chewie wrote:Was all in on Obi after watching clips but you have to look at the weaknesses as well and it's easy to fall off that bandwagon.

Start @ 5:24...that high center of gravity/stiffness, just terrible footwork and awareness. Just so much to work on defensively. Can say all you want about it being an offensive league but defense counts for something. If Bulls coaches can look at that and say oh that is all easily fixable then GREAT but IDK...this is pretty damning stuff. Not for the weak of heart:


That's what predraft workouts are for. You take his weaknesses you see on film, ask him to do certain things and if you see he can improve in those areas then you draft based on that. For example someone who can't shoot 3. If you see he at least has a nice form then you may realize he just needs a proper coaching to fine tune that shot make it more efficient.

I agree alot of problems on defense but Toppin has alot of room to improve and his strengths outweigh that of most people in this draft.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1014 » by PlayerUp » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:46 am

dice wrote:
PlayerUp wrote:
Leslie Forman wrote:This is probably going to follow most awful drafts and end up with its best player being, like, the 19th pick.


Probably? Statistically the odds of this happening are next to nothing.

happens quite a lot in drafts where there's not surefire talent (most drafts). drafting is much more of a crap shoot than you seem to think. best player in draft according to career VORP:

2018 doncic (3)
2017 mitchell (13)
2016 simmons (1)
2015 KAT (1)
2014 jokic (41)
2013 giannis (15)
2012 AD (1)
2011 kawhi (15)
2010 PG (10)
2009 harden (3)
2008 westbrook (4)
2007 durant (2)
2006 lowry (24)
2005 cp3 (4)
2004 iggy hop (9)
2003 lebron (1)
2002 boozer (35)
2001 pau (3)
2000 redd (43)

beyond lebron has there even been good HOF bet coming out of the draft in the last 20 years? AD?


Okay my mistake here. I completely did not see the part where Leslie put "best player". Thought they said "best players" in general.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1015 » by PlayerUp » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:53 am

Leslie Forman wrote:I've been trying to figure out who Toppin reminds me of…

…it's Derrick Williams. Everything is straight line power stuff. Everything. There's a little more back-to-the-basket post game, but that's about as useful as tits on a bull.

This draft just keeps looking worse and worse the more research I do.


That's not a bad comparison but it doesn't mean Obi Toppin will be a Derrick Williams. Williams was an excellent college player averaging 19.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG on 56.8% 3PT. He just couldn't adjust to the NBA level. Way too inconsistent on offense and his defense never improved. There are players who simply don't improve at the next level. That's why you have to draft players that are workaholics and have a high basketball IQ. They'll never improve unless they put in the time and energy.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1016 » by Fastbrk4brkfast » Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:04 am

gobullschi wrote:
I agree that the high center of gravity/stiffness is a legit concern. That is probably why most people see him as a center. It's a bit surprising considering he was a guard for the majority of his basketball career. Defensively, a late growth spurt (7 inches) might explain some defensive awareness issues because of a position change. If you listen to his conversation with Mike Schmitz you can tell he's a bright kid that understands what he needs to do, but on the court he isn't processing quick enough.



On our roster Obi's definitely a power forward and we've got the defensive centers to back him up. His defense may not be as bad as advertised anyway. With his fundamentals he might struggle in specific matchups but overall he can still make plays. This team lost a lot of scoring at PF when Niko and Bobby departed. Replacing some of that raises this team's floor significantly. At #4 Obi might be BPA and best fit at the same time. Snag him.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1017 » by drosereturn » Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:04 am

cjbulls wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
I mean, if this is the worst you have on an 18 yo center playing their first collegiate games, I'm not sure if you proved your point. Surely we aren't going to nitpick a couple of hand selected bad decisions? And yes, I am one who hates when people post mix tapes as well.

I'm not a big Wiseman fan, but I see the appeal of picking him. He arguably has the highest upside of any player in the draft, despite being a center.I always thought the general rule of thumb for bad drafts is to just take the highest upside player because you're likely to miss no matter who you pick.


Those clips aren't my arguments against Wiseman. There's a bunch of knocks - he's not very good laterally, his awareness/help on D isn't very good, not a good passer and can't create shots for himself really. If you want a detailed breakdown, this is an amazing article from the same guy, Spencer -

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/01/24/james-wiseman-scouting-report/

If we go back to my initial comparison with Poku, it's hard not to think that Poku has higher upside. He's listed at 7 foot, apparently he's grown another inch and a half since then, he's further along as a catch and shoot player and has shown the ability to shoot off basically guard actions, off movement, pulling up, etc... his passing is some of the best we've seen from a big basically ever, has great 'stocks' and is a solid rebounder.

It's more of a risk in terms of him putting on the strength to defend and score adequately in the paint, but he's probably a 4 full-time, plus his base is actually solid, he's just got a stick thin upper body right now.. but he's also the youngest player in the draft.

Look at these statistical pre-draft comparisons -

Image

If swinging for ultimate upside is the goal, Poku's the guy, imo. Will he go top 10? Highly unlikely. Should he? I think, probably.

I think there's this conflation between being massive/doing exciting blocks/dunks equaling high upside that is making everyone think Wiseman has a high upside. Wiseman is a damn gazelle down the court, and can dunk the **** out of the ball when he gets to load up. But I dare say Poku's actual fluidity of movement and coordination for his size are similarly freakish in terms of athleticism.


Not quite sure what we should be excited about there? Poku's numbers compared to a random selection of guys, most if not all of whom played in an entirely different league doesn't say much to me. Then you go on to point out he's a 4, whereby we already have a sweet shooting 7' 4-man and another lottery 5 who thinks he's a 4. But I have seen no video on him so I don't want to judge him yet (although that 41%FG shooting is alarming)


I like Poku but saying he is better than Wiseman is dishonest. Wise has great frame unlike Poku and can run like a deer which Hassan/Drummond doesnt do and have better offensive potential than those guys due to his shooting form.
He is pretty much an elite traditional center that can well adapt to the modern game which is why he is a top 3 pick.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1018 » by GimmeDat » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:03 am

Showtime23 wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
Those clips aren't my arguments against Wiseman. There's a bunch of knocks - he's not very good laterally, his awareness/help on D isn't very good, not a good passer and can't create shots for himself really. If you want a detailed breakdown, this is an amazing article from the same guy, Spencer -

https://www.thestepien.com/2020/01/24/james-wiseman-scouting-report/

If we go back to my initial comparison with Poku, it's hard not to think that Poku has higher upside. He's listed at 7 foot, apparently he's grown another inch and a half since then, he's further along as a catch and shoot player and has shown the ability to shoot off basically guard actions, off movement, pulling up, etc... his passing is some of the best we've seen from a big basically ever, has great 'stocks' and is a solid rebounder.

It's more of a risk in terms of him putting on the strength to defend and score adequately in the paint, but he's probably a 4 full-time, plus his base is actually solid, he's just got a stick thin upper body right now.. but he's also the youngest player in the draft.

Look at these statistical pre-draft comparisons -

Image

If swinging for ultimate upside is the goal, Poku's the guy, imo. Will he go top 10? Highly unlikely. Should he? I think, probably.

I think there's this conflation between being massive/doing exciting blocks/dunks equaling high upside that is making everyone think Wiseman has a high upside. Wiseman is a damn gazelle down the court, and can dunk the **** out of the ball when he gets to load up. But I dare say Poku's actual fluidity of movement and coordination for his size are similarly freakish in terms of athleticism.


Not quite sure what we should be excited about there? Poku's numbers compared to a random selection of guys, most if not all of whom played in an entirely different league doesn't say much to me. Then you go on to point out he's a 4, whereby we already have a sweet shooting 7' 4-man and another lottery 5 who thinks he's a 4. But I have seen no video on him so I don't want to judge him yet (although that 41%FG shooting is alarming)


I like Poku but saying he is better than Wiseman is dishonest. Wise has great frame unlike Poku and can run like a deer which Hassan/Drummond doesnt do and have better offensive potential than those guys due to his shooting form.
He is pretty much an elite traditional center that can well adapt to the modern game which is why he is a top 3 pick.


It's dishonest to say that I said he's better - I've just been arguing that Poku should be in the conversation, and that Wiseman could well be, *arguably* as low as the 4th best big in the draft. But to be specific, I would take Poku over Wiseman for our situation - nothing dishonest about it.

Maybe I can rephrase my point in the form of a question - what actual skills does Wiseman possess on the offensive end? I struggle to answer that question, like at all. What is a 'traditional C' - someone who is big and can score in the post? Because he doesn't have a good post game. What does it mean to adapt to the modern game? If it's running the floor and dunking the ball, big tick. If it's shooting, well he can't shoot right now but the form leaves some promise as someone who could develop into a basic stand-still shooter. A modern C also needs to be switchable on D - he's not... he has struggled with PnR defense greatly.. and on top of that his help/awareness is not very good.

To sum up again, he'll be a starter in this league, I'm not trying to tarnish him. But the upside, imo, is not great. I think Ayton's a good guy to look at as a comparison as well - he's a good piece for Phoenix, not a star/superstar, but a legit starter. He ticks many of the same boxes as Wiseman but was more switchable, more developed as a shooter, little bit more of a post game, and unlike Wiseman could pass the rock. So I think he's a distinct step down from Ayton as a prospect.
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1019 » by cjbulls » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:22 am

GimmeDat wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
That's fine if you're not excited - not sure I'd call that group a 'random selection of guys' though.

We already have a 4, okay. We already have a 5, too, not sure what you're point is. AK already said it - you go BPA this high up in the draft. Beyond that, Lauri has faaaar from proven himself as a cornerstone going forward and he's an RFA in 2021.


It is random on your part to pick some guys who are unrelated in playing style and play in a different league in a different year to compare numbers. We know that guys can put up stats depending on their level of competition and counting stats generally have a weak correlation to NBA success.

I could have just as easily pulled numbers for Jahlil Okafor, Dragan Bender, Anthony Bennett, Eddie Griffin, Yi Jianlian as my selection and see how Poku fits in. There'd be just as close a connection.


There is something to be said for the uniqueness of those statistical profiles, and the correlation between those players outputs -it's elite company. Regardless of minor distinctions between competition, it's just a rare crop regardless. Those players are the best/most promising bigs in the league. If you were to pulled those numbers up for the players you mentioned, or any other 'random' crop of bigs, they would absolutely pale in comparison.

Throwing everything the stats, eye test and more reveals about a player purely because of an obscure situation is what causes guys like Giannis and Porzingis to go underrated through the pre-draft process.

You can also go look up his play in FIBA in the junior European and World Cup's in 2018 and 2019, where his skills translated against some of the best prospects of his age group. He thoroughly destroyed Ariel Hukporti, a projected 2021 lottery pick who plays against grown men and is physically NBA ready when they played against Germany, for instance.

If you would like further reading and the context of that table, here's a link - https://uproxx.com/dimemag/aleksej-pokusevski-2020-nba-draft-scouting-report/



You didn’t even mention these numbers were per 36. I guess I should have realized they seemed off. You can make any group of prospects look alike if you want to compare different leagues, play styles, years, etc. and then make the numbers per 36.
_________Pts__ Reb__ AST__ Stl__ Blk__ TO__ FG%__ 3P%__ FT%
Poku ____18.2__11.6__4.3__2.3__3.4__3.0.___41__38%___77%
J Okafor_20.7__10.2__1.5__.9____1.7__3.0___66%__—___51%
A Bennett 21.4__10.8__1.3__.9___1.6__2.4___59%__38%___70%
E Griffin__19.8__11.9__1.8__1.0__4.9__2.4___43__38%___73%
D Bender_ 12.8 __7.3__1.9__1.5__— __—_____ 50%__36%___72%
Y Jianlian 29.2__13.5__ —__ —__—_4.1__ —___56%__ — ___84%
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Re: 2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th! 

Post#1020 » by GimmeDat » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:46 am

cjbulls wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:
cjbulls wrote:
It is random on your part to pick some guys who are unrelated in playing style and play in a different league in a different year to compare numbers. We know that guys can put up stats depending on their level of competition and counting stats generally have a weak correlation to NBA success.

I could have just as easily pulled numbers for Jahlil Okafor, Dragan Bender, Anthony Bennett, Eddie Griffin, Yi Jianlian as my selection and see how Poku fits in. There'd be just as close a connection.


There is something to be said for the uniqueness of those statistical profiles, and the correlation between those players outputs -it's elite company. Regardless of minor distinctions between competition, it's just a rare crop regardless. Those players are the best/most promising bigs in the league. If you were to pulled those numbers up for the players you mentioned, or any other 'random' crop of bigs, they would absolutely pale in comparison.

Throwing everything the stats, eye test and more reveals about a player purely because of an obscure situation is what causes guys like Giannis and Porzingis to go underrated through the pre-draft process.

You can also go look up his play in FIBA in the junior European and World Cup's in 2018 and 2019, where his skills translated against some of the best prospects of his age group. He thoroughly destroyed Ariel Hukporti, a projected 2021 lottery pick who plays against grown men and is physically NBA ready when they played against Germany, for instance.

If you would like further reading and the context of that table, here's a link - https://uproxx.com/dimemag/aleksej-pokusevski-2020-nba-draft-scouting-report/



You didn’t even mention these numbers were per 36. I guess I should have realized they seemed off. You can make any group of prospects look alike if you want to compare different leagues, play styles, years, etc. and then make the numbers per 36.
_________Pts__ Reb__ AST__ Stl__ Blk__ TO__ FG%__ 3P%__ FT%
Poku ____18.2__11.6__4.3__2.3__3.4__3.0.___41__38%___77%
J Okafor_20.7__10.2__1.5__.9____1.7__3.0___66%__—___51%
A Bennett 21.4__10.8__1.3__.9___1.6__2.4___59%__38%___70%
E Griffin__19.8__11.9__1.8__1.0__4.9__2.4___43__38%___73%
D Bender_ 12.8 __7.3__1.9__1.5__— __—_____ 50%__36%___72%
Y Jianlian 29.2__13.5__ —__ —__—_4.1__ —___56%__ — ___84%


Sure, per 36 is a pretty standard way of standardizing statistics assuming you're not doing any crazy extrapolation.

Those original names were compiled because they were the quote unquote 'unicorn' prospects who do everything on the court and move exceptionally for their size. This group is quite clearly the opposite. Okafor, Jianlian, Bennett etc. were poor athletes/plodders.. the face of empty stats bigs.

But more than anything, those stats don't even look similar.. the difference in overall stocks and assist rates is absolutely night and day.

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