Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[pcbothwel]

John Wall for Tobias Harris, Shake Milton, and their 2020 FRP. Is it worth it to take on that extra year of salary?

I think I pass. Over the next 3 years, I think Wall and Harris will provide about the same level or production... But Harris is highly redundant with Rui, leaves us with a hole at PG, and then makes 40M the year after Wall would've expired.

Wall will drop a 24/12/4 game and a team needing a talent influx that dont want to give up premium assets will have Wall on their radar. Look at all the players making 20M+ that are negative value. I see about 50 players making that in 20/21, with about 20 being negative:
Barnes - 22M
Draymond - 22M
Aldridge - 24M
Hield - 25M
Batum - 27M
Horford - 27.5M
Otto - 28M
D'Angelo - 28.6M
Drummond - 28.7M
Wiggins - 29M
Love - 31M
Hayward - 34M
Harris - 34M
Conley - 34.5M
Thompson - 35M
Griffin - 36.8M
Wall - 41M
Westbrook - 41M

I think I would hold off on the possibility to acquire expirings (Hornets or Knicks) and head into next summer with 30M+ in cap space

[nate33]

My guess is that Philly would balk at that trade.

Right now, John Wall's name may as well be John "Worst-Contract-in-the-League" Wall. All other teams are going to reflexively turn down any John Wall trade that doesn't include incentive.

pcbothwel makes a good point that the situation might change if Wall returns and is something close to his former self and some of these other large contracts start looking worse. But until that happens, I think Wall cannot be moved without including picks.

[payitforward]

...Ideally, they (i.e. Philly) shop the #9 pick filler salary for an upgrade at PG. Could they pry away Derrick White or Dejounte Murray from San Antonio? Or maybe just draft a guy like Haliburton?

Somehow I missed this last bit from your trade scenario....

Barring the speculative Embiid trade, suppose we were trading the #9 pick for a lower pick & a player.... Is there an interesting move you can see, nate?

Spurs are only 2 spots down from us, so they are not likely the ideal trade partner. But, could we get the Nets # 19 & Jarrett Allen for our #9 &... what?

Say Bryant & the #9 for Allen & the #19 -- does that make any sense at all?

I'm not proposing anything here... just looking for your thoughts. Or anyone's....

I definitely do that Allen trade. I don't see why Brooklyn would, though....

You may be right that Brooklyn doesn't do that trade, even right that it wouldn't be a smart trade for them. Yet... Jarrett Allen will need to be paid real $$ soon, & they've got Jordan to pay for several more years. The trade kicks the financial can down the road, while Bryant matches well as a supplement to Jordan.

Whatever... my real interest here is in the larger question: whether we can/should use our #9 pick in this way: i.e. is there an opportunity for us in trading the #9 for 1 lower R1 pick plus a player?

It's that possibility I'm interested in hearing about from you. If you think it's worth thinking about, that is!

[nate33]

Somehow I missed this last bit from your trade scenario....

Barring the speculative Embiid trade, suppose we were trading the #9 pick for a lower pick & a player.... Is there an interesting move you can see, nate?

Spurs are only 2 spots down from us, so they are not likely the ideal trade partner. But, could we get the Nets # 19 & Jarrett Allen for our #9 &... what?

Say Bryant & the #9 for Allen & the #19 -- does that make any sense at all?

I'm not proposing anything here... just looking for your thoughts. Or anyone's....

I definitely do that Allen trade. I don't see why Brooklyn would, though....

You may be right that Brooklyn doesn't do that trade, even right that it wouldn't be a smart trade for them. Yet... Jarrett Allen will need to be paid real $$ soon, & they've got Jordan to pay for several more years. The trade kicks the financial can down the road, while Bryant matches well as a supplement to Jordan.

Whatever... my real interest here is in the larger question: whether we can/should use our #9 pick in this way: i.e. is there an opportunity for us in trading the #9 for 1 lower R1 pick plus a player?

It's that possibility I'm interested in hearing about from you. If you think it's worth thinking about, that is!

I haven't been spending much time with the Trade Checker lately. Ultimately, I doubt there are many trades out there. What we need are legit, starting-caliber forwards younger than age 27 on affordable contracts. But teams with legit, starting-caliber forwards on affordable contracts are unlikely to trade them for a #9 pick in a weak draft.

[Frichuela]

This is why PIF's suggestion makes sense.

Agreed that the Wiz need a solid 3&D wing, but they also need defense and rim protection and Allen offers that.

I posted before a comparison of his stats in the 2019-20 season to Gobert, don't they look remarkably similar?

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jarrett+Allen&player_id1_select=Jarrett+Allen&player_id1=allenja01&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Rudy+Gobert&player_id2_select=Rudy+Gobert&player_id2=goberru01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2020

Per 36 minutes, Allen had 15.1 pts, 13.0 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.8 blk, 1.5 TOV vs. 15.8 pts, 14.1 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.1 blk, 2.0 TOV for the Frenchman.

Gobert had also better advanced numbers, but -again- not that far from Allen who is 6 years younger at 22!

In this proposed trade the Wiz will send Bryant + #9 for Allen, Temple and #19.

Temple (5mn TO) would serve as a stop gap 3&D wing for the Wiz next season. At #19, the Wiz may be able to pick a decent prospect such as Tyrell Terry or Jalen Smith.

And for Brooklyn, they get out of having to pay Allen and get a solid stretch 5 in Bryant who compliments Deandre Jordan better plus a better pick in the draft (that they may use or flip in a trade).

To sum up, this would be a great trade for the Wiz, particularly if they can't land Big O in the draft.

[Ruzious]

On these Allen trades - which I've been looking at since early in the season, the bad thing ya gotta keep in mind is that he'll be a free agent after next season, and you have to factor in what he'd cost to re-sign and if centers are really worth that much. So I wouldn't go for an offer that costs more than the 9th pick for Allen and the 19th pick - though I'd be fine with throwing in Mo Wagner or Jerome Robinson - because I think they have very limited value.

[payitforward]

John Wall for Tobias Harris, Shake Milton, and their 2020 FRP. Is it worth it to take on that extra year of salary?

I think I pass. Over the next 3 years, I think Wall and Harris will provide about the same level or production...

Hard pass. I loved Tobias Harris coming out of college, but he's not a particularly good NBA player & never has been.

In every thing outside of scoring he is overall significantly below average. As a scorer, he produces 4 or 5 more points than average -- by taking 4 or 5 more shots than average. That's no help.

I would expect John Wall to provide a whole lot higher level of production than Harris. He certainly has over his career.

[Frichuela]

On these Allen trades - which I've been looking at since early in the season, the bad thing ya gotta keep in mind is that he'll be a free agent after next season, and you have to factor in what he'd cost to re-sign and if centers are really worth that much. So I wouldn't go for an offer that costs more than the 9th pick for Allen and the 19th pick - though I'd be fine with throwing in Mo Wagner or Jerome Robinson - because I think they have very limited value.

Agreed Ruzious, with three considerations:

1) Trading Bryant in the package makes the offer more attractive for Brooklyn and frees up $9mn/year in salary on our end.
2) Allen will be an RFA in 2021 and ideally you explore offering him an extension in the $12-13 mn/year salary range. If he accepts, then the overall payroll cost is an additional $3-4 mn/year after 2021.
3) I believe Allen's role could be expanded. He is shown an improvement in passing in the Bubble and it would not surprise me he eventually becomes a serviceable 3-point shooter from the corners.

[Frichuela]

On these Allen trades - which I've been looking at since early in the season, the bad thing ya gotta keep in mind is that he'll be a free agent after next season, and you have to factor in what he'd cost to re-sign and if centers are really worth that much. So I wouldn't go for an offer that costs more than the 9th pick for Allen and the 19th pick - though I'd be fine with throwing in Mo Wagner or Jerome Robinson - because I think they have very limited value.

Agreed Ruzious, with three considerations:

1) Trading Bryant in the package makes the offer more attractive for Brooklyn and frees up $9mn/year in salary on our end.
2) Allen will be an RFA in 2021 and ideally you explore offering him an extension in the $12-13 mn/year salary range. If he accepts, then the overall payroll cost is an additional $3-4 mn/year after 2021.
3) I believe Allen's role could be expanded. He is shown an improvement in passing in the Bubble and it would not surprise me he eventually becomes a serviceable 3-point shooter from the corners.

I also think that if we get someone like Jalen Smith at #19, we could easily develop him as a decent stretch 5 back-up to Allen, who may be also be able to play the 4 in spurts.

IMHO- Jalen Smith looks a more promising player than Bryant was in college. Just look at their stats.

[payitforward]

This is why PIF's suggestion makes sense.

Agreed that the Wiz need a solid 3&D wing, but they also need defense and rim protection and Allen offers that.

I posted before a comparison of his stats in the 2019-20 season to Gobert, don't they look remarkably similar?

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Jarrett+Allen&player_id1_select=Jarrett+Allen&player_id1=allenja01&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Rudy+Gobert&player_id2_select=Rudy+Gobert&player_id2=goberru01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2020

Per 36 minutes, Allen had 15.1 pts, 13.0 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.8 blk, 1.5 TOV vs. 15.8 pts, 14.1 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.1 blk, 2.0 TOV for the Frenchman.

Gobert had also better advanced numbers, but -again- not that far from Allen who is 6 years younger at 22!

In this proposed trade the Wiz will send Bryant + #9 for Allen, Temple and #19.

Temple (5mn TO) would serve as a stop gap 3&D wing for the Wiz next season. At #19, the Wiz may be able to pick a decent prospect such as Tyrell Terry or Jalen Smith.

And for Brooklyn, they get out of having to pay Allen and get a solid stretch 5 in Bryant who compliments Deandre Jordan better plus a better pick in the draft (that they may use or flip in a trade).

To sum up, this would be a great trade for the Wiz, particularly if they can't land Big O in the draft.

If I understood nate, his only problem with this trade is that Brooklyn wouldn't go for it!

In that sense, we all agree. But... if they weren't willing to pull the trigger on it... then what? That is, what could we do to sweeten it?

For one thing, we could offer a player the Nets wanted more than nate thinks they'd want Bryant -- but... who would that be? & if Bryant didn't go, we'd be carrying him, Allen & Wagner on our roster, which seems like something of a problem.

Otherwise, we could simply add something to the trade -- say our R2 pick? Would that make up the talent deficit nate sees in my version of the deal?

Right now we have 9 guys w/ guaranteed salaries for the coming year. If Wall & Beal are not on the block, Bryant doesn't work, & we don't want to move Troy Brown, & Rui is off the table, that leaves Ish Smith, Moritz Wagner, Ish Smith & Admiral Schofield. Won't be a long line outside our door for that group!

We also have options on Bonga & Pasecniks. Certainly don't want to trade Bonga, & Pasecniks has no trade value.

[Ruzious]

On these Allen trades - which I've been looking at since early in the season, the bad thing ya gotta keep in mind is that he'll be a free agent after next season, and you have to factor in what he'd cost to re-sign and if centers are really worth that much. So I wouldn't go for an offer that costs more than the 9th pick for Allen and the 19th pick - though I'd be fine with throwing in Mo Wagner or Jerome Robinson - because I think they have very limited value.

Agreed Ruzious, with three considerations:

1) Trading Bryant in the package makes the offer more attractive for Brooklyn and frees up $9mn/year in salary on our end.
2) Allen will be an RFA in 2021 and ideally you explore offering him an extension in the $12-13 mn/year salary range. If he accepts, then the overall payroll cost is an additional $3-4 mn/year after 2021.
3) I believe Allen's role could be expanded. He is shown an improvement in passing in the Bubble and it would not surprise me he eventually becomes a serviceable 3-point shooter from the corners.

I also think that if we get someone like Jalen Smith at #19, we could easily develop him as a decent stretch 5 back-up to Allen, who may be also be able to play the 4 in spurts.

IMHO- Jalen Smith looks a more promising player than Bryant was in college. Just look at their stats.

I like Smith, but how about not giving away Bryant and trying to improve at more than one position - especially when the one position you'd be improving on is now generally regarded as the NBA's least important position?

[payitforward]

On these Allen trades - which I've been looking at since early in the season, the bad thing ya gotta keep in mind is that he'll be a free agent after next season, and you have to factor in what he'd cost to re-sign and if centers are really worth that much. So I wouldn't go for an offer that costs more than the 9th pick for Allen and the 19th pick - though I'd be fine with throwing in Mo Wagner or Jerome Robinson - because I think they have very limited value.

Agreed Ruzious, with three considerations:

1) Trading Bryant in the package makes the offer more attractive for Brooklyn and frees up $9mn/year in salary on our end.
2) Allen will be an RFA in 2021 and ideally you explore offering him an extension in the $12-13 mn/year salary range. If he accepts, then the overall payroll cost is an additional $3-4 mn/year after 2021.
3) I believe Allen's role could be expanded. He is shown an improvement in passing in the Bubble and it would not surprise me he eventually becomes a serviceable 3-point shooter from the corners.

First off, it's great that you're participating actively, Frichuela -- keep it up!

I think Jarrett will make significantly more than $12-13m in his next contract. He is an awfully good, very young player. Then again, I don't mind that. He'll be worth it.

Ruz... Allen & the #19 pick for the #9 pick in this draft...? So, that's getting Jarrett Allen &, say, Saddiq Bey or Poku? or Nesmith? in return for Devin Vassell or Haliburton? Absolutely! But... I'm having trouble getting myself to believe it.

[Ruzious]

On these Allen trades - which I've been looking at since early in the season, the bad thing ya gotta keep in mind is that he'll be a free agent after next season, and you have to factor in what he'd cost to re-sign and if centers are really worth that much. So I wouldn't go for an offer that costs more than the 9th pick for Allen and the 19th pick - though I'd be fine with throwing in Mo Wagner or Jerome Robinson - because I think they have very limited value.

Agreed Ruzious, with three considerations:

1) Trading Bryant in the package makes the offer more attractive for Brooklyn and frees up $9mn/year in salary on our end.
2) Allen will be an RFA in 2021 and ideally you explore offering him an extension in the $12-13 mn/year salary range. If he accepts, then the overall payroll cost is an additional $3-4 mn/year after 2021.
3) I believe Allen's role could be expanded. He is shown an improvement in passing in the Bubble and it would not surprise me he eventually becomes a serviceable 3-point shooter from the corners.

First off, it's great that you're participating actively, Frichuela -- keep it up!

I think Jarrett will make significantly more than $12-13m in his next contract. He is an awfully good, very young player. Then again, I don't mind that. He'll be worth it.

Ruz... Allen & the #19 pick for the #9 pick in this draft...? So, that's getting Jarrett Allen &, say, Saddiq Bey or Poku? or Nesmith? in return for Devin Vassell or Haliburton? Absolutely! But... I'm having trouble getting myself to believe it.

Brooklyn fans believe it. They think Allen's got very little trade value. There was a thread about in the trade board a month or 2 ago. You just said part of the reason - his next contract. He can leave for nothing, or he could be signed for quite a lot. It's a reality you have to look at.

[payitforward]

...IMHO- Jalen Smith looks a more promising player than Bryant was in college. Just look at their stats.

Compare their stats as Freshmen. Bryant was fantastic -- much better than Jalen Smith as a Freshman.

Bryant took a sizable step back as a Sophomore. Meanwhile, Smith posted a big jump his Sophomore year.

What was behind Bryant's Sophomore slump? Who knows. But once in the NBA he killed it for us in 2018-19. He was altogether great.

Smith might also play well in the NBA. In fact, I like him a lot! Still, I wouldn't jump to any radical conclusions about him vs. Bryant.

[payitforward]

Ruz... Allen & the #19 pick for the #9 pick in this draft...? So, that's getting Jarrett Allen &, say, Saddiq Bey or Poku? or Nesmith? in return for Devin Vassell or Haliburton? Absolutely! But... I'm having trouble getting myself to believe it.

Brooklyn fans believe it. They think Allen's got very little trade value. There was a thread about in the trade board a month or 2 ago. You just said part of the reason - his next contract. He can leave for nothing, or he could be signed for quite a lot. It's a reality you have to look at.

Well, obviously, if has little trade value, & we can get him for less, then let's get him for less! Can't disagree with that.

But, he & Bryant expire the same year, & between now & then, Bryant will earn $17m compared to Allen's $9.6m. If the Nets give him his qualifying offer for '21-22, someone signs him for $14m & Brooklyn matches, the overall cost for Allen will have been $1m more than Bryant.

How can he leave for nothing? Any more than Bryant can, I mean? Moreover, if Center is the least valuable position, why are we presuming he'll be signed for so much $$$. & if he will, then why won't Bryant have a similar set of options?

Don't get me wrong -- you may be spot on! He may be signed for Clint Capela money, & we may not want to keep him at that price. But... something along those lines may happen w/ Bryant, & we may not want to keep him either.

I like Bryant -- everybody knows that. But, Jarrett Allen is a better player. The only way I wouldn't do the deal I suggest is if I thought the difference between the player I'd get at #9 & the one I'd get at #19 was a lock to be greater than the difference between Allen & Bryant. I don't see how that can be a lock.

[Ruzious]

They don't expire the same year. Allen will be an RFA after next season, and Bryant has 2 seasons left on his contract.

At some point, it'd likely become too expensive to keep both of them.

[payitforward]

You're right -- technically they expire the same year, but Allen's on a rookie contract so that the decision point does come earlier. Maybe not a whole season earlier, in that it's quite possible a next contract gets worked out for a guy like Bryant early in the year he expires. Still... a valid point.

But, Ruz, if "it'd likely become too expensive to keep both of them," then why would we not use Bryant as a trade chip in acquiring Allen? Assuming Allen is the better player (which I do, although I like Bryant a lot).

[Ruzious]

You're right -- technically they expire the same year, but Allen's on a rookie contract so that the decision point does come earlier. Maybe not a whole season earlier, in that it's quite possible a next contract gets worked out for a guy like Bryant early in the year he expires. Still... a valid point.

But, Ruz, if "it'd likely become too expensive to keep both of them," then why would we not use Bryant as a trade chip in acquiring Allen? Assuming Allen is the better player (which I do, although I like Bryant a lot).

Why would I add Bryant if I can trade 9 for Allen and 19? I can always trade Bryant later - after he's built up more trade value. If he keeps improving his D and gets the blocks and steals he did in the bubble, his trade value should go up. Or, if we re-sign Allen, we could later trade him. Keep who'sever (if that's a word) better long-term, and trade the other.

Remember, it took Montrezl Harrell several years to develop value - the Clipps were able to re-sign him for 2/12 in 2018 - nobody else seemed to have any interest in him - even though he played well. Now, it seems like everyone wants him, and he's set for a big payday. I think the same could end up happening with TB.

[payitforward]

I agree with every word of your post, Ruz. As I wrote yesterday. If we got the #19 pick & Jarrett Allen for our #9 pick, it'd be a slam dunk steal (...a phenomenon I just invented! ).

In fact that is so good, so too too good, that I'd have to throw in Moritz Wagner! Plus our rights to Pasecniks! And "hey, how'd you like a bonus -- an ex-lottery pick from 2018? Whaddya say?"

It's just that I don't think Brooklyn, which unlike Philly actually has a competent FO, would go for that. & I do think well enough of Jarrett Allen that I'd say Bryant & the #9 is not too much to give for him & the #19. Hell, nate doesn't think it'd be likely to be enough!

I suppose we'll never find out....

[Ruzious]

Pif, keep in mind that Brooklyn is the same organization that signed DeAndre Jordan to a 4/$40 million contract - to start over Allen and because he's buds with Kyrie irving and Kevin Durant. They're a classic team that looks good on paper but won't achieve anything, imo.