PlayerUp wrote:MrSparkle wrote:PlayerUp wrote:
This.
People need to decide whether to do the safe route or go the risky route. Risky routes can often lead to a star. Safe routes lead to a complementary piece.
I actually disagree, strongly.
I think the definition of safe needs to be revisited:
Safe:
- Good shooting form
- Good defensive floor
- Good size or wingspan
- Atleast moderately athletic
- Fast
- Good ball handling
- High IQ
- Multi positional
Unsafe:
- Slow or unathletic
- Bad shooting form
- Terrible FG%
- Bad IQ
- Lack of fundamentals
- Bad handling
- Weak
- Injury prone
- Bad defensive awareness
X-Factors that only translate if you have fantastic handles and scoring ability:
- Hyper athleticism
- Elite vision
Doesn’t really matter but some people continue making a big deal about it:
- Age
With late bloomers like Curry, Butler, Draymond... I don’t why people give a crap. If a player is dominating at 18, then that means they’re ready and must be snagged early (Lebron, Luka). Kawhi had 2 college years and didn’t end up like Cody Zeller.
Somehow we associate McDermott and WCJ with “safe”, but Doug was a classic example of a guy I considered a very risky NBA translation, and WCJ was basically the rawest project guy in the top-7 besides Bamba - he was basically a smart defender with a very strong frame, solid fundamentals, good wing-span and a hint of a jumpshot, ability to handle, etc. He was also the youngest player in the draft. But on the other hand, he really didn’t project any particular scoring ability besides the low post (with an undersized length for NBA Cs).
But anyway, I’d say if your pick has atleast 5 unsafe flags, then you are really just gambling against yourself.
My point, is there was nothing risky about Giannis, Kawhi, Jimmy, George, Westbrook, Rose, Luka. Granted, they were later picks... But if a guy has like 2 or 3 faults, but a whole mess of a great skills and attributes, you can’t highlight those faults and pigeon them a roleplayer. They were safe picks with star ceilings. Even had they not become stars with elite scoring, Kawhi or Jimmy would’ve had long NBA careers.
A starting recipe for a star IMO is elite handles, strong scoring ability (either inside or out, or even just getting to the FT line), and a good court awareness. If they don’t have that, then you might as well skip the potential star conversation.
There is a difference between high risk medium reward picks and medium risk high reward picks.
You miss out on Trae Young because he's small and not a defensive stand-out.
You miss out on Michael Porter Jr. because of his injury concern
You let Mitchell Robinson slide because of no freshman year.
You don't go after Donovan Mitchell because of size.
Or Bam Adebayo because you think he's just a rim runner with no other skill set.
Same with Pascal Siakam.
All of these players were not considered high risk medium reward picks and they didn't have most of these issues.
Unsafe:
- Slow or unathletic
- Bad shooting form
- Terrible FG%
- Bad IQ
- Lack of fundamentals
- Bad handling
- Weak
- Injury prone
- Bad defensive awareness
You go for high risk picks that you think can heavily develop at the next level.
I think you're focusing on the Unsafe list and not looking at the Safe list.
I'd go for Trae because he checked almost every safe box besides good defensive floor.
I still think MPJ was worth skipping at #7. I wasn't against taking him cause I saw he's an agile 6'10 handler and shooter, but I still don't think he was worth the risk with that high a pick.
Bam could handle the ball well for his position. His fundamentals were solid - he didn't display bad IQ. His college shooting stats and percentages were all very solid (besides for not having a 3P ball in college at all, which in many ways is still a long-shot expectation for defensive centers). Certainly large and athletic with a good defensive floor. Not injury prone or weak.
Mitchell's wing-span was rated very good. But yeah- certainly an outlier. I have trouble thinking of undersized star SGs in the last 20 years. I've got 2: Iverson and Mitchell... then there's McCollum, FVV, Avery Bradley, maybe Marcus Smart if we don't consider him a PG, neither of whom ever made an ASG or All-NBA team (but very good players no doubt). But regardless, I could say with confidence (in hindsight
) that Donovan had exactly zero of the 'Unsafe' flags I listed.
