2019-2020 College BBall/2020 NBA Draft Vol 1

[Negrodamus]

Maxey seems like he possesses the athleticism and effort to be a solid defender at the next level. I don't feel confident that Quickley will be a passable defender. He's not terribly athletic.

[stormi]

What does Saddiq Bey do that's going to get him drafted ~20 slots before Jordan Nwora

[Negrodamus]

What does Saddiq Bey do that's going to get him drafted ~20 slots before Jordan Nwora

Nwora doesn't pass, not much of a creator, doesn't really score at the rim. He's a fine defender, but not terribly athletic. I don't know, he's a fine prospect.

Saddiq Bey was, according to Jay Wright, a point guard that shot up to 6'8. He has some handles and decent passing. Both are obviously great shooters.

To me, Nwora doesn't pass my eye test enough.

[No-Man]

We took the wing version of him in last year's draft, however I feel more confident in his jump shot translating than Thybulle's.

Why? it's the exact opposite

Also Bey is kinda like stronger KJ McDaniels

[Kobblehead]

What does Saddiq Bey do that's going to get him drafted ~20 slots before Jordan Nwora

Handle.

Bey can score off the dribble in the mid-range. Nwora needs plays generated for him in order for him to score.

[Negrodamus]

Spoiler:

Wings that played in the BPM era (according to Sports Reference) in college and made it to one of the past two All Star games:

Kyrie Irving - OBPM: 9.8, DBPM: 5.0, STL%: 3.0, AST%: 29.8
Kawhi Leonard - OBPM: 5.3, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 2.7, AST%: 16.0
Bradley Beal - OBPM: 5.4, DBPM: 2.9, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 12.7
Ben Simmons - OBPM: 7.0, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 27.4
Damian Lillard -OBPM: 9.1, DBPM: 0.7, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 27.1
Klay Thompson -OBPM: 6.8, DBPM: 3.0, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 25.0
Victor Oladipo - OBPM: 8.9, DBPM: 6.2, STL%: 4.6, AST%: 15.2
Khris Middleton - OBPM: 4.3, DBPM: 1.9, STL%: 2.1, AST%: 20.0
D'Angelo Russell - OBPM: 8.6, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 2.8, AST%: 30.1
Kemba Walker -OBPM: 9.2, DBPM: 3.9, STL%: 3.1, AST%: 28.0
Devin Booker -OBPM: 6.1, DBPM: 3.3, STL%: 1.3, AST%: 10.9
Jayson Tatum - OBPM: 4.6, DBPM: 3.2, STL%: 2.3, AST%: 12.2
Jimmy Butler - OBPM: 7.2, DBPM: 2.2, STL%: 2.4, AST%: 13.2
Donovan Mitchell - OBPM: 5.7, DBPM: 5.5, STL%: 3.7, AST%: 16.0
Brandon Ingram- OBPM: 6.0, DBPM: 2.0, STL%: 1.9, AST%: 11.4
Trae Young - OBPM: 9.7, DBPM: 1.3, STL%: 2.5, AST%: 48.6

DBPM, aside from a few anomalies is 2+. STL% is generally 2.2+, AST% is at least 10+, OBPM is at least 5+

There's plenty of other factors to look at (which I do), but I feel like this is a good baseline consideration later in the draft for a steal. Obviously this excludes international.

Wings in our range that fulfill this requirement: Tyler Bey (might be cheating because he was a post player in college), Tre Jones, Desmond Bane, Cassius Winston (just short with 1.9 DBPM), Devon Dotson, Skylar Mays, Malachi Flynn, Sam Merrill, Payton Pritchard, Mason Jones.

Just a note, Anthony Edwards falls well short of the above benchmarks.

EDIT: I also consider previous season's performances, with the necessary volume, often when doing this. For context, Myles Powell's junior year (when he should have left) would fulfill all of these benchmarks, but he was injured this year and fell short.

To expand on this toward the rest of the first round, here are the (non-Intl) wings that do fall into this range:

Devin Vassell: 6.7 OBPM, 4.2 DBPM, 2.8 STL%, 11 AST%
Tyrese Haliburton: 8.0 OBPM, 3.7 DBPM, 3.8 STL%, 35.3 AST%

Okongwu, although not a wing, almost makes the list but is just shy with an 8 AST%. Toppin short on AST%.

Xavier Tillman, Killian Tillie, and Paul Reed (although just short with OBPM) seem like the only three that passes the bar. Kaleb Wesson too if you consider his whole body of work while at OSU.

[ProcessDoctor]

#21: Tyler Bey (if Saddiq’s gone)
#34: Paul Reed
#36: Sam Merrill

[76ciology]

Kobble brought him to my attention. This guy is #1 pick for me in this year’s draft.

Read on Twitter

[Negrodamus]

#21: Tyler Bey (if Saddiq’s gone)
#34: Paul Reed
#36: Sam Merrill

I'd be fine with this. I'm mentally prepared for that first to be sent out though. I think it will be used to move Tobias.

If we move Shake Milton this offseason, I'd definitely take Mason Jones. Similarly, he lacks athleticism, but he was elite at finishing at the rim, has an incredible BBIQ, and plays great team defense. He and Sam Merrill are two guys we should really consider in the second round.

[ProcessDoctor]

#21: Tyler Bey (if Saddiq’s gone)
#34: Paul Reed
#36: Sam Merrill

I'd be fine with this. I'm mentally prepared for that first to be sent out though. I think it will be used to move Tobias.

If we move Shake Milton this offseason, I'd definitely take Mason Jones. Similarly, he lacks athleticism, but he was elite at finishing at the rim, has an incredible BBIQ, and plays great team defense. He and Sam Merrill are two guys we should really consider in the second round.

I’m hoping we can get by without giving up too many picks to unload Harris/Horford. If they each go for similarly bad contracts (but better fits) then hopefully we can have a fun draft day.

[stormi]

What does Tyler Bey add to this team offensively? Seems like he'd want to occupy the spaces Ben and Al and Joel do.

He looks very skilled at using his body and feints and such to create space for himself. He could be groomed into a weapon if he became a more willing shooter.

[Monix]

What does Tyler Bey add to this team offensively? Seems like he'd want to occupy the spaces Ben and Al and Joel do.

this

Embiid, Simmons, Horford and Harris all want to be in the same spots as is

[Negrodamus]

What does Tyler Bey add to this team offensively? Seems like he'd want to occupy the spaces Ben and Al and Joel do.

He looks very skilled at using his body and feints and such to create space for himself. He could be groomed into a weapon if he became a more willing shooter.

He's a bench player that guards 1-4 and has upside as a shooter since his form is pretty decent, shoots 75% from FT on decent volume, and is a high effort/energy player, which we lack. He's also quite athletic.

I'm not really worried about him in regards to how he fits, I just want him to play instead of Mike Scott and GRIII off the bench. If we move Tobias, then he will have an even more expanded role off the bench.

[Kobblehead]

Kobble brought him to my attention. This guy is #1 pick for me in this year’s draft.

Read on Twitter

Easily the best player in the draft, for me.

- All-NBA defensive talent.
- Elite distributor
- Elite size
- Can score off the dribble
- Has the shooting profile to eventually become a guy that can hit threes as a decent clip

[Kobblehead]

#21: Tyler Bey (if Saddiq’s gone)
#34: Paul Reed
#36: Sam Merrill

It's a tough pill to swallow to come away with a haul like this that provides zero shotcreation help.

Tyler Bey can't dribble and couldn't defend anyone until his junior year in college. Not a big fan.

Sam Merrill is a playoff zero IMO. Shooting specialist that can't score off the dribble or defend anyone. It would just perpetuate the problem of Korkmaz/Milton/Richardson/Scott, etc.

I like Paul Reed, though. Good defensive PF that can switch onto ball handlers to an acceptable degree.

[No-Man]

Merrill is far from just a shooting specialist, he is a Kennard type CG, he can create and pass, will it translate to the league? who knows, I'd not touch him that high but later in the 2nd or with a 2-way he is an obvious get

Bey and Reed are late 40s for me, I'd not take for Philly unless they are there at 49th

[ProcessDoctor]

#21: Tyler Bey (if Saddiq’s gone)
#34: Paul Reed
#36: Sam Merrill

It's a tough pill to swallow to come away with a haul like this that provides zero shotcreation help.

Tyler Bey can't dribble and couldn't defend anyone until his junior year in college. Not a big fan.

Sam Merrill is a playoff zero IMO. Shooting specialist that can't score off the dribble or defend anyone. It would just perpetuate the problem of Korkmaz/Milton/Richardson/Scott, etc.

I like Paul Reed, though. Good defensive PF that can switch onto ball handlers to an acceptable degree.

To be fair, Tyler Bey wasn't necessarily showcased for a perimeter/playmaker role at Colorado. There are flashes of him taking defenders off the dribble, but I do agree it's something he needs to work on. Otherwise, I think he has a lot of tools to be special. 7'1" wingspan, 61% TS, high FTA rate, and a relentless motor.

I could see that with Merrill. Not the most athletic player and will likely be hot/cold. Skylar Mays is slightly more athletic and might be a better option in regards to shot-creation. Will likely be a negative defender though.

[76ciology]

Read on Twitter

Wiseman dropping to 10

[Negrodamus]

Man, I'd be terrified to put my career on the line for LaMelo Ball.

[Kobblehead]

I like Mays a lot defensively. I think he's a lockdown guy, even.