Trade Talk (Part Four)

[minimus]

Even though he is far from flashy, Lauri is an incredibly effective ball-handler. Given that Avdija may as well be one handed Lauri is definitely the superior ball-handler.

Never doubt Lauri scoring ability. My question is whether he can defend.

[minimus]

Trade with DET:
Out: #1, #17, Spellman, Evans
In: #7, Doumbouya, 2021 DET FRP (top3 protected)

Trade with GSW:
Out: JJ
In: TPE

Draft Maxey, Tillie. Re-sign Beasley, Jmac, Kelan Martin (1+3). Sign Jae Crawder to full MLE.

KAT/Reid/Tillie
Doumbouya/Layman/Vanderbilt
Culver/Crawder/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Maxey
DLo/JMac/Maxey

[Wolveswin]

Warriors Get: J. Johnson (via Iggy TPE) + 2021 Jazz 1st via Grizzlies + 2024 Own 1st Returned via Grizzlies
Warriors Give: Poole + 2021 Wolves 1st Owed
Warriors Reasoning: if one believes they won’t trade Wiggins negative value attached to assets and devalue them, this gets Warriors expiring Johnson for subsequent trade.

Grizzlies Give: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Jazz 1st Owed + 2024 Warriors 1st Owed
Grizzlies Get: #1 Overall + Poole + Vanderbilt
Grizzlies Reasoning; draft Edwards or Ball for next to Morant.

Wolves Give: #1 Overall + J. Johnson + Vanderbilt
Wolves Get: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Own 1st Returned
Wolves Reasoning: complete their lineup while getting their 2021 owed 1st back.
Towns
Clarke | Hernangomez
Winslow | Culver
Beasley | Okogie
Russell
Plus #17.

[shrink]

For those that don’t understand why the Warriors would be interested in JJ in minimus and wolveswin’s trades, I thought I’d take a few minutes to explain why. For those that already know this, feel free to skip this post.

Johnson for the Iguodala TPE is a very realistic trade. I listened to two national podcasts yesterday, and among other things, they kept mentioning how James Johnson ($16.1) fit so well in that Warriors ($17.2) TPE. The reason that they’d be interested in using their TPE on Johnson, Is because there is a real gap of talented players that are paid $17.2 or less, the limit of the TPE. According to CBA rules, TPE’s cannot be added together with another player contract or TPE, however, if it is swapped for a player contract, those can. For example, Johnson alone could be traded for $16.1 x1.25 +0.1, so a player just over $20 mil, or he could be combined with another contract to match salaries. The Warriors might have trouble if the league felt they were solely making the trade to circumvent the TPE rules, but if JJ was on the team for a little while or they included something else (MIN and GSW swap 2nds in different years), it would probably be fine.

For the Wolves, they face a different dynamic. Johnson did better than expected for us, on and off the court, but he is not worth a $16.1, so turning any overpaid contract into a TPE is generally considered a win. MIN could face the same salary matching issues as GSW if they were trying to acquire a player worth more than $16.1, but they are far less “win now” than the Warriors, and Rosas is more likely to be making moves around the edges to try to up the overall value of the assets of this team.

[shrink]

Warriors Get: J. Johnson (via Iggy TPE) + 2021 Jazz 1st via Grizzlies + 2024 Own 1st Returned via Grizzlies
Warriors Give: Poole + 2021 Wolves 1st Owed
Warriors Reasoning: if one believes they won’t trade Wiggins negative value attached to assets and devalue them, this gets Warriors expiring Johnson for subsequent trade.

Grizzlies Give: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Jazz 1st Owed + 2024 Warriors 1st Owed
Grizzlies Get: #1 Overall + Poole + Vanderbilt
Grizzlies Reasoning; draft Edwards or Ball for next to Morant.

Wolves Give: #1 Overall + J. Johnson + Vanderbilt
Wolves Get: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Own 1st Returned
Wolves Reasoning: complete their lineup while getting their 2021 owed 1st back.
Towns
Clarke | Hernangomez
Winslow | Culver
Beasley | Okogie
Russell
Plus #17.

Interesting idea. It’s a lot for MEM, but I think they might say yes if they have a player they love at #1.

I think this might be an overpay for GSW. The MIN pick could be a very good asset. Perhaps if they got Brandon Clark for Peal instead of the UTA pick, that might help. I’d also be interested in what the price would be if this was the #2 pick, rather than the 2021 MIN 1st. I think the MIN pick is more valuable, and turning the #1 and Johnson into #2, #23, Winslow, TPE adds to our roster crowding issue, but the chance to trade the #2 to another team that thinks they could get a different future star is more fun.

Good job.

[KGdaBom]

Warriors Get: J. Johnson (via Iggy TPE) + 2021 Jazz 1st via Grizzlies + 2024 Own 1st Returned via Grizzlies
Warriors Give: Poole + 2021 Wolves 1st Owed
Warriors Reasoning: if one believes they won’t trade Wiggins negative value attached to assets and devalue them, this gets Warriors expiring Johnson for subsequent trade.

Grizzlies Give: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Jazz 1st Owed + 2024 Warriors 1st Owed
Grizzlies Get: #1 Overall + Poole + Vanderbilt
Grizzlies Reasoning; draft Edwards or Ball for next to Morant.

Wolves Give: #1 Overall + J. Johnson + Vanderbilt
Wolves Get: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Own 1st Returned
Wolves Reasoning: complete their lineup while getting their 2021 owed 1st back.
Towns
Clarke | Hernangomez
Winslow | Culver
Beasley | Okogie
Russell
Plus #17.

I love Clarke, but IMO getting him and 2021 back isn't worth giving up #1 overall for.
I don't care about Winslow.

[Domejandro]

Even though he is far from flashy, Lauri is an incredibly effective ball-handler. Given that Avdija may as well be one handed Lauri is definitely the superior ball-handler.

Never doubt Lauri scoring ability. My question is whether he can defend.

He’s a League average defensive player, he’s adequate on that end.

[Neeva]

I don’t want the wolves to be the team paying Lauri 20 million a year to be a streaky shooter that is a bad defender and with no post up game AND injury prone. Let the bulls overpay him.

[minimus]

Even though he is far from flashy, Lauri is an incredibly effective ball-handler. Given that Avdija may as well be one handed Lauri is definitely the superior ball-handler.

Never doubt Lauri scoring ability. My question is whether he can defend.

He’s a League average defensive player, he’s adequate on that end.

What about this trade scenario:

#1 pick, #17 pick, Evans, Spellman for #4, Lauri, CHI 2021 top3 protected pick

Draft Hayes. Sign Jae Crowder for full MLE.

KAT/Reid
Lauri/Layman/Vanderbilt
Crowder/Culver/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Hayes
DLo/Hayes/JMac

[Wolveswin]

Warriors Get: J. Johnson (via Iggy TPE) + 2021 Jazz 1st via Grizzlies + 2024 Own 1st Returned via Grizzlies
Warriors Give: Poole + 2021 Wolves 1st Owed
Warriors Reasoning: if one believes they won’t trade Wiggins negative value attached to assets and devalue them, this gets Warriors expiring Johnson for subsequent trade.

Grizzlies Give: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Jazz 1st Owed + 2024 Warriors 1st Owed
Grizzlies Get: #1 Overall + Poole + Vanderbilt
Grizzlies Reasoning; draft Edwards or Ball for next to Morant.

Wolves Give: #1 Overall + J. Johnson + Vanderbilt
Wolves Get: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Own 1st Returned
Wolves Reasoning: complete their lineup while getting their 2021 owed 1st back.
Towns
Clarke | Hernangomez
Winslow | Culver
Beasley | Okogie
Russell
Plus #17.

I love Clarke, but IMO getting him and 2021 back isn't worth giving up #1 overall for.
I don't care about Winslow.

The way I figure it, Clarke is like trading back for a draft pick. He is a 24yo with 1 year of NBA experience under his belt. Both facts I think positives for Wolves. I think he would be 4-9 value in 2020 draft (meaning a team in that slot may swap pick in that range for Clarke if Memphis was selling).

So by equation, does #1 for say #7 and get Wolves 2021 1st back work? With Winslow as the cherry on top (may not be overly positive value, but never bad to get a starter who is core age, 2 years on contract and ready to help Wolves win — as the cherry on top).

[Domejandro]

I don’t want the wolves to be the team paying Lauri 20 million a year to be a streaky shooter that is a bad defender and with no post up game AND injury prone. Let the bulls overpay him.

He isn’t a terrible defensive player, at this point I kind of just assume he gets that reputation from being a Euro-cracker.

[Domejandro]

Never doubt Lauri scoring ability. My question is whether he can defend.

He’s a League average defensive player, he’s adequate on that end.

What about this trade scenario:

#1 pick, #17 pick, Evans, Spellman for #4, Lauri, CHI 2021 top3 protected pick

Draft Hayes. Sign Jae Crowder for full MLE.

KAT/Reid
Lauri/Layman/Vanderbilt
Crowder/Culver/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/Hayes
DLo/Hayes/JMac

Chicago is definitely not doing that deal with the added pick, in my opinion.

[Whole Truth]

Warriors Get: J. Johnson (via Iggy TPE) + 2021 Jazz 1st via Grizzlies + 2024 Own 1st Returned via Grizzlies
Warriors Give: Poole + 2021 Wolves 1st Owed
Warriors Reasoning: if one believes they won’t trade Wiggins negative value attached to assets and devalue them, this gets Warriors expiring Johnson for subsequent trade.

Grizzlies Give: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Jazz 1st Owed + 2024 Warriors 1st Owed
Grizzlies Get: #1 Overall + Poole + Vanderbilt
Grizzlies Reasoning; draft Edwards or Ball for next to Morant.

Wolves Give: #1 Overall + J. Johnson + Vanderbilt
Wolves Get: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Own 1st Returned
Wolves Reasoning: complete their lineup while getting their 2021 owed 1st back.
Towns
Clarke | Hernangomez
Winslow | Culver
Beasley | Okogie
Russell
Plus #17.

Do you know the protections on those Memphis picks?.

The Utah pick conveys in 2021 only if it's in the 8-14 range, if not it's 1-6 protected in 2022 when Gobert, Ingles is facing free agency. If not conveyed by then, 1-3 in 2023.

The GS pick is top 4 protected in 2024, top 1 in 2025, unprotected in 2026 when GS could be in a full rebuild. Getting back control of that pick makes it even more valuable to GS, same reason you want your 2021 back though you have DLo, Beasly, Kat & whatever you do with the #1 pick, which could easily be a playoff team next year, making it non lotto, where as I stated GS would likely be in a state of rebuild in 24-26.

Factor in, Wiseman might be the only player in this draft Memphis might offer Clarke up for, you included Winslow which cost Memphis a first in a salary dump of Waiters with 2 potential lotto picks in better drafts, especially if things break right.

Winslow when healthy is a very good 2 way player, secondary ball handler & big wing defender. His team option makes him a potential expiring.

Clarke's one knock coming out of the draft was his 3pt shooting. He shot 40% from 3 & was a reliable corner threat in combination with his versatility & defense. Not only is he a good player he fills a need for Minnesota & fits perfectly next to Kat.

I think your idea isn't bad if Memphis like Wiseman enough to offer up Clarke but IMO you have them offering up too much value.

I'm thinking Memphis could put the 2024 on the table for GS # 2 pick without offering up Clarke.

[Klomp]

For those that don’t understand why the Warriors would be interested in JJ in minimus and wolveswin’s trades, I thought I’d take a few minutes to explain why. For those that already know this, feel free to skip this post.

Johnson for the Iguodala TPE is a very realistic trade. I listened to two national podcasts yesterday, and among other things, they kept mentioning how James Johnson ($16.1) fit so well in that Warriors ($17.2) TPE. The reason that they’d be interested in using their TPE on Johnson, Is because there is a real gap of talented players that are paid $17.2 or less, the limit of the TPE. According to CBA rules, TPE’s cannot be added together with another player contract or TPE, however, if it is swapped for a player contract, those can. For example, Johnson alone could be traded for $16.1 x1.25 +0.1, so a player just over $20 mil, or he could be combined with another contract to match salaries. The Warriors might have trouble if the league felt they were solely making the trade to circumvent the TPE rules, but if JJ was on the team for a little while or they included something else (MIN and GSW swap 2nds in different years), it would probably be fine.

For the Wolves, they face a different dynamic. Johnson did better than expected for us, on and off the court, but he is not worth a $16.1, so turning any overpaid contract into a TPE is generally considered a win. MIN could face the same salary matching issues as GSW if they were trying to acquire a player worth more than $16.1, but they are far less “win now” than the Warriors, and Rosas is more likely to be making moves around the edges to try to up the overall value of the assets of this team.

I agree wholeheartedly.

A lot of people are trying hard to get the 2021 pick back, but I just don't think that part of those deals is realistic. I do think they would possibly part with their own pick though. I think Johnson for a late 1st is reasonable, especially given how well he would likely fit into the Warriors system.

[Klomp]

From Sam Vecenie:

In my opinion, all of their moves should be geared toward the 2022 and 2023 seasons, not necessarily toward success this coming season. However, this offseason is the one where they’re going to have the most optionality toward that. Teams always have more available moves on the board than the average person sees, and Rosas is among the most creative general managers working. Even if the team is capped out next summer, he’ll find a way to change things up if the team isn’t working. But this is a summer where they have more cards in the deck than anyone else to be able to make the moves they need to in order to position themselves for success. The moves the Wolves make this summer are going to be, in my opinion, the most critical ones they make in this mini-restart around their superstar center. Maybe those moves involve kicking the can down the road a bit and waiting for a more advantageous situation. Waiting to make a move is oftentimes the best move a leader of a basketball operations department can make. But this is the summer where the Timberwolves are going to be at the forefront of the NBA’s maneuvering, regardless of what they decide to do. The moves they make this year will tell a large part of the story in regard to whether or not the team figures out how it can compete with Karl-Anthony Towns, or if this era of Timberwolves basketball is seen as another missed opportunity.

https://theathletic.com/2013965/2020/08/31/team-specific-big-boards-timberwolves-nba-draft-options-and-offseason-preview/

[KGdaBom]

Warriors Get: J. Johnson (via Iggy TPE) + 2021 Jazz 1st via Grizzlies + 2024 Own 1st Returned via Grizzlies
Warriors Give: Poole + 2021 Wolves 1st Owed
Warriors Reasoning: if one believes they won’t trade Wiggins negative value attached to assets and devalue them, this gets Warriors expiring Johnson for subsequent trade.

Grizzlies Give: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Jazz 1st Owed + 2024 Warriors 1st Owed
Grizzlies Get: #1 Overall + Poole + Vanderbilt
Grizzlies Reasoning; draft Edwards or Ball for next to Morant.

Wolves Give: #1 Overall + J. Johnson + Vanderbilt
Wolves Get: Winslow + Clarke + 2021 Own 1st Returned
Wolves Reasoning: complete their lineup while getting their 2021 owed 1st back.
Towns
Clarke | Hernangomez
Winslow | Culver
Beasley | Okogie
Russell
Plus #17.

I love Clarke, but IMO getting him and 2021 back isn't worth giving up #1 overall for.
I don't care about Winslow.

The way I figure it, Clarke is like trading back for a draft pick. He is a 24yo with 1 year of NBA experience under his belt. Both facts I think positives for Wolves. I think he would be 4-9 value in 2020 draft (meaning a team in that slot may swap pick in that range for Clarke if Memphis was selling).

So by equation, does #1 for say #7 and get Wolves 2021 1st back work? With Winslow as the cherry on top (may not be overly positive value, but never bad to get a starter who is core age, 2 years on contract and ready to help Wolves win — as the cherry on top).

I love Clarke, but we need to swing for the Fences with Wiseman, Okongwu, Avdija, or Edwards with this pick. Clarke is IMO simply reliably good and that doesn't cut it.

[Neeva]

Clarke is a role player who will be the same player in 3-5 years. Roleplayers alone don’t get you a top pick.

[Wolveswin]

I love Clarke, but IMO getting him and 2021 back isn't worth giving up #1 overall for.
I don't care about Winslow.

The way I figure it, Clarke is like trading back for a draft pick. He is a 24yo with 1 year of NBA experience under his belt. Both facts I think positives for Wolves. I think he would be 4-9 value in 2020 draft (meaning a team in that slot may swap pick in that range for Clarke if Memphis was selling).

So by equation, does #1 for say #7 and get Wolves 2021 1st back work? With Winslow as the cherry on top (may not be overly positive value, but never bad to get a starter who is core age, 2 years on contract and ready to help Wolves win — as the cherry on top).

I love Clarke, but we need to swing for the Fences with Wiseman, Okongwu, Avdija, or Edwards with this pick. Clarke is IMO simply reliably good and that doesn't cut it.

That is fair. I don’t disagree with that assessment. I am in the Wiseman camp and do want to see Wolves swing for fences with him and Towns paired together.

[karch34]

I don’t want the wolves to be the team paying Lauri 20 million a year to be a streaky shooter that is a bad defender and with no post up game AND injury prone. Let the bulls overpay him.

He isn’t a terrible defensive player, at this point I kind of just assume he gets that reputation from being a Euro-cracker.

That was my assessment too. Maybe I was expecting him to be terrible on D so I was more impressed with him being average that I should be.

[chrbal]

Trade with DET:
Out: #1, #17, Spellman, Evans
In: #7, Doumbouya, 2021 DET FRP (top3 protected)

ey

Not a chance. Evans and spellman are pointless. Detroit needs anything and everything, this isn’t a good draft for them to try and move up from 7