Around the NBA (Non-Celtics) 2019-2020, Part 3 – "Playoff Version"

[3D Chess]

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[PierceFan4ever]

We matchup so well with the Heat. Bucks are a tougher matchup but I feel way more confident if Miami advances. Either way I think we can take both teams. Of course I’m not trying to look ahead and forget about the Raptors but watching a potential opponent for the next round be Miami sounds nice.

[greenroom31]

Rant warning:

I hate watching Miami. Butler is one of those guys who is constantly flopping at any contact and somehow the refs fall for it endlessly. Dragic is another expert flopper. That’s the one big complaint I have about the NBA — there’s still twenty or thirty guys in the league who spend more time driving into people and diving on the floor than trying to get by them. Harden is another great example. And Lowry.

[3D Chess]

Once the Conference Finals matchups are set, the NBA should fly 5k fans from each of the four teams into quarantine while the Finals matchup is determined.

Finals start, we have a COVID-free live crowd.

Sure, two sets of fans go home empty handed, but the other 10k get to watch potentially 7 straight finals games and provide a proper NBA Finals atmosphere for the players and people watching on TV.

Total cost would be approximately the same as 1 year of Al Horford's current contract. I rate this idea as at least 10 Al Horford's in value.

[ConstableGeneva]

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Get yourself a jumper, blame the coach. Whatever you do, you can't be this useless in a close playoff game when you're league MVP.

[SMTBSI]

I hate watching Miami. Butler is one of those guys who is constantly flopping at any contact and somehow the refs fall for it endlessly.

Free Throw Rate (# of FT attempts per FG attempt) among high-profile, high offensive usage players:

.36 - Leonard
.38 - Lillard
.40 - Booker
.42 - Fox
.43 - DeRozan
.43 - Lowry
.45 - Doncic
.46 - Simmons
.48 - Davis
.49 - Zion
.51 - Giannis
.53 - Harden
.54 - Embiid

.69 - Butler


He's so far ahead of anyone else in his playstyle reference frame it's ridiculous. The only other guys up in that range are low-usage bigmen like Gobert at .72 and Howard at .77.

After Dwight, Jaxson Hayes, and Gobert, there's literally a .112 pt gap between Butler and any other qualifying player (by whatever criteria BBRef uses) in the league, irrespective of role and position. [1] And, the next five are also bigmen, before you finally get to free-throw magnet Harden, .165 points down.

[djFan71]

Bucks not good at game 1s, apparently. I think 2-5 might be a little tougher this round.

[CSL_1904]

Miami doing the dirty work for us

[Darthlukey]

Once the Conference Finals matchups are set, the NBA should fly 5k fans from each of the four teams into quarantine while the Finals matchup is determined.

Finals start, we have a COVID-free live crowd.

Sure, two sets of fans go home empty handed, but the other 10k get to watch potentially 7 straight finals games and provide a proper NBA Finals atmosphere for the players and people watching on TV.

Total cost would be approximately the same as 1 year of Al Horford's current contract. I rate this idea as at least 10 Al Horford's in value.

10 Al Horfords in value, that is just about the funniest thing I have read on here in months. Almost lost it sitting in the middle of my office!

[Bleeding Green]

I hate watching Miami. Butler is one of those guys who is constantly flopping at any contact and somehow the refs fall for it endlessly.

Free Throw Rate (# of FT attempts per FG attempt) among high-profile, high offensive usage players:

.36 - Leonard
.38 - Lillard
.40 - Booker
.42 - Fox
.43 - DeRozan
.43 - Lowry
.45 - Doncic
.46 - Simmons
.48 - Davis
.49 - Zion
.51 - Giannis
.53 - Harden
.54 - Embiid

.69 - Butler


He's so far ahead of anyone else in his playstyle reference frame it's ridiculous. The only other guys up in that range are low-usage bigmen like Gobert at .72 and Howard at .77.

After Dwight, Jaxson Hayes, and Gobert, there's literally a .112 pt gap between Butler and any other qualifying player (by whatever criteria BBRef uses) in the league, irrespective of role and position. [1] And, the next five are also bigmen, before you finally get to free-throw magnet Harden, .165 points down.

He doesn't take anywhere near as many jumpers as any of the guys you listed (save Simmons, Zion). Of course he's going to take a lot of FT, he's constantly attacking the basket.

[SMTBSI]

I hate watching Miami. Butler is one of those guys who is constantly flopping at any contact and somehow the refs fall for it endlessly.

Free Throw Rate (# of FT attempts per FG attempt) among high-profile, high offensive usage players:

.36 - Leonard
.38 - Lillard
.40 - Booker
.42 - Fox
.43 - DeRozan
.43 - Lowry
.45 - Doncic
.46 - Simmons
.48 - Davis
.49 - Zion
.51 - Giannis
.53 - Harden
.54 - Embiid

.69 - Butler


He's so far ahead of anyone else in his playstyle reference frame it's ridiculous. The only other guys up in that range are low-usage bigmen like Gobert at .72 and Howard at .77.

After Dwight, Jaxson Hayes, and Gobert, there's literally a .112 pt gap between Butler and any other qualifying player (by whatever criteria BBRef uses) in the league, irrespective of role and position. [1] And, the next five are also bigmen, before you finally get to free-throw magnet Harden, .165 points down.

He doesn't take anywhere near as many jumpers as any of the guys you listed (save Simmons, Zion). Of course he's going to take a lot of FT, he's constantly attacking the basket.

That may be so, but there are literally no other comps in the entire league. I didn't selectively list players to make any kind of point. I picked every high-usage offensive "star" I could find, with a high FTR. Peruse through the BBref link I posted if you doubt that.

So, Is there really a giant gap between his playstyle and effectiveness at this measure and literally any other player in the entire league? Even Giannis? Even Simmons, who has less range than anyone?

Maybe. Maybe I just haven't dug enough. Or am thinking about it the wrong way. It's just an extremely conspicuous gap.


Edit: Also worth pointing out he's up .200 pts from his career average, and .300 points from last year. He's historically been right in the ~.500 Harden/Giannis range.

[SMTBSI]

Just to make sure it's clear, those other names I posted are the high-usage, high FTR players in the league. I didn't leave anyone out. Most high-usage players are below even these ranges.


.25 - Irving
.25 - Schroder
.25 - Sexton
.25 - JJJ
.25 - Brogdon
.25 - Bridges
.26 - Tatum
.26 - VanVleet
.27 - Valanciunas
.27 - Marcus Morris
.27 - Kemba
.27 - Jaylen Brown
.27 - Wiggins
.27 - Siakam
.28 - Jokic
.28 - Paul George
.28 - Kanter
.28 - Lavine
.29 - Myles Turner
.29 - Aaron Gordon
.29 - Lebron
.30 - Bojan Bogdanovic
.30 - Love
.30 - Bledsoe
.30 - Porzingis
.30 - Westbrook
.32 - Paul
.32 - Nurkic
.33 - Morant
.34 - Whiteside
.34 - Ingram
.34 - Barnes
.34 - Dragic
.35 - Burks
.35 - Barrett
.35 - Sabonis
.35 - Randle
.35 - Beal
.35 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
.36 - Lou Will
.36 - Towns
.36 - Leonard
.37 - Gallinari
.37 - Durant (last season)
.38 - Drummond
.38 - Lillard
.39 - Griffin
.40 - Teague
.40 - Booker
.42 - Fox
.42 - Steven Adams (low usage)
.43 - DeAndre Jordan (low usage)
.43 - DeRozan
.43 - Lowry
.43 - Zubac (low usage)
.43 - Harrell
.43 - Mitchell Robinson (low usage)
.44 - RHJ (low usage)
.44 - Dinwiddie
.45 - Young
.45 - Doncic
.46 - Simmons
.47 - Damian Jones (low usage)
.48 - Davis
.48 - Wood
.48 - Okoge (low usage)
.48 - Adebayo
.49 - Zion
.51 - Giannis
.53 - Harden
.54 - Plumlee (low usage)
.54 - Embiid
.54 - Biyombo (low usage)
.57 - Maker (low usage)
.58 - Jarrett Allen (low usage)

.69 - Butler

.72 - Gobert (low usage)
.73 - Hayes (low usage)
.77 - Howard (low usage)

Any high-profile scorer you don't see on this list is probably below even Irving's .25.

It doesn't matter what variable you look at - position, playstyle, whatever. Nobody at moderate to high usage is in Butler's universe.

He's a clear, league-wide outlier. Just saying, "he's constantly attacking the basket" doesn't have enough explanatory power. He's either by far by far the best in the league at it (and made a huge jump at it this season, based on his historical percentages), or there're other factors.

[ConstableGeneva]

"Lu Dort went on a personal 8-0 run including two threes to bring the Thunder back into the game and give them the lead going into the 4th." is a sentence I never thought I'd say just yesterday.

[London2Boston]

Houston really going to choke this series huh?

Lakers cakewalk Round 2.

[MagicBagley18]

Houston is a team to watch this off-season if they lose in the 1st round. the owner is leveraged financially, the coach is getting fired. All that money and luxury Tax to pay for a team to lose early in the post season. Limited maneuverability to get better- and a gm who has a lukewarm relationship w the new owner.

Now is really the time to sell High on harden- though morey won’t.

[Darthlukey]

Houston is a team to watch this off-season if they lose in the 1st round. the owner is leveraged financially, the coach is getting fired. All that money and luxury Tax to pay for a team to lose early in the post season. Limited maneuverability to get better- and a gm who has a lukewarm relationship w the new owner.

Now is really the time to sell High on harden- though morey won’t.

Was just thinking the same thing, is it worth trying to blow it up and also keep some of those picks they owe the Thunder as well as turning Harden (and maybe Russ and Roco) into a treasure trove of young talent and picks.

[MagicBagley18]

Houston is a team to watch this off-season if they lose in the 1st round. the owner is leveraged financially, the coach is getting fired. All that money and luxury Tax to pay for a team to lose early in the post season. Limited maneuverability to get better- and a gm who has a lukewarm relationship w the new owner.

Now is really the time to sell High on harden- though morey won’t.

Was just thinking the same thing, is it worth trying to blow it up and also keep some of those picks they owe the Thunder as well as turning Harden (and maybe Russ and Roco) into a treasure trove of young talent and picks.

I think so but problem is you may trade harden and get stuck w Russ’s contract and not be able to move it at least right away. Harden as great on offense as he is, they have tried with Dwight, cp3, Russ now. Got close a few years back when they blew the warriors series but I think that was their peak.

[MagicBagley18]

Man that kemba harden backcourt would give teams fits on defense.....lol

[Darth Celtic]

Now that's a trade thread built for Danny. Hayward (expiring). Three picks this year. Unprotected in 22. Top three protected in 24 or 25 unprotected and romeo for harden. Owners better have money but that team is sii8ck.

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[Theocy]

Now that's a trade thread built for Danny. Hayward (expiring). Three picks this year. Unprotected in 22. Top three protected in 24 or 25 unprotected and romeo for harden. Owners better have money but that team is sii8ck.

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Are u trying to give stevens a heart attack. We would have the worst defense in the league with harden and kemba