The Offseason thread

[pinoynurse]

personally, i want us to trade the vets, go young and aim for a high draft pick. sadly, i dont believe ownership will allow it. They want us to be a competitive team every year out with the hope we can find our superstar without high draft picks ala toronto/milwaukee/brooklyn. We will be in the same position as the detroit pistons for the next couple years. Id rather watch a 25 win team with the hope of a high draft pick than a middling team with no future but oh well. hopefully we can find someone to build around with our 15th picks

[zaymon]

Saying our ownership is too cheap too tank is not fair imo. We have been intentionally tanking for many years ( well some of it intenionally). Weltman has always drafted the rawest, highest upside prospects available ( or injured), he intentionally overloaded roster with wings/forwards becouse they have the highest trade value( sacrificing some team balance), he has traded for redemption project instead of veterans. I dont see the mediocrity strategy here.

Your conflating draft strategy and roster management with tanking and those two things aren't connected in this case.

The fact is, the Magic are actively trying to win as many games as they can every year. They hired Steve Clifford who is one of the most "we're going to grind out victories, particularly in March and April when most bad teams are really packing it in" coaches in the sport for goodness sake. There is zero hint of anything other than "we want to field the best team we can" going on at this point and time.

Tanking is when a team decides at the organizational level that are not concerned with winning basketball games on a nightly basis. The main objective shifts away from competitiveness and towards the accumulate of assets in the form of draft picks and financial flexibility in the hopes of being able to acquire a star talent or multiple star talents via the draft. Then in a perfect world, you'd have extra assets (picks/cap space) available for supplement your drafted stars with additional talent.

The only seasons in recent history that the Magic were actively TRYING to be bad were the three Rob Hennigan/Jacque Vaughn years.

Once they hired Scott Skiles and later Frank Vogel, the goals of the organization shifted. They were actively trying to win games and just didn't because of how inept they built the rosters in those seasons.

The fan support eroded so badly when the Magic tried to tank last time that I just don't see a situation where ownership would go for it again anytime soon.

Like many others have pointed out, when you're in a small market like the Magic are in and don't have a particularly big local television contract, you gotta keep the arena packed.

The Magic will tell you (whether this is actually true or not is firmly up-for-debate, but that's a different conversation) that they can't survive without a building full of people who are paying for parking, buying concessions, spending money on merchandise in the team shop, etc. Local businesses need to keep buying the luxury suites. Fans who can't come to the games need to be watching them on TV.

But when the team is intentionally trying to be bad, casual fans (and a lot of serious fans if we're being candid) check out and simply stop giving money to the organization in the form of buying tickets, merch, watching on television etc. I just don't believe the Magic are willingly going to go down that path again anytime soon.

Trading for Fultz was not draft strategy, it was roster management. Your logic would be sound if tanking was the only path to contention, but its not. As you conveniently describe it tanking is about accumulating assets, you get higher expected value from your picks, but lower from existing players and free agency. There is also diminishing return in most cases. The more young players you have the less value they represent due to minute restrictions, and lack of winning (think Pelicans, Hawks).
What we are doing is accumulating assets with different weigh distribution. We get less value from picks ( but still we are in a place where high upside players are often available), but more value from existing players and free agency. We havent capitalised much on it until now, but all signs point out we will. Signing Simmons and then fliping him for Fultz was one of these moves. Signing Aminu the second ( i believe he wouldnt sign with us if we werent a playoff team, many think he is a negative asset i believe he is still positive). Much will tell what we will do with Gordon.

[Def Swami]

From Zach Lowe today on the Magic:

Opposites in Orlando: Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier
Vucevic is the anti-Myles Turner on offense: a willing 3-point bomber who abuses little guys on switches with a pivoty, soft-touch post game. After Marc Gasol stole a piece of Vucevic's soul in last season's first round, it was heartening to watch him pick-and-pop the Bucks into more of a fight than anyone expected.

Vucevic finally bonked some jump hooks in a 9-of-25 performance in Game 5 Saturday, and if there's one nit to pick on offense, it's (as usual) the lack of free throws. Eleven in five games isn't enough. But Vucevic was Orlando's only source of scoring.

In three (brief) playoff appearances, Fournier has never shot better than 35.3% or averaged more than 12.8 points and 2.6 assists. Three or four years ago, some within the Magic hoped Fournier would turn into a second or third option on a good team. A subset of those folks considered him a superior prospect to Oladipo.

Fournier has had some nice shooting seasons, including this one, but he has never advanced as a playmaker. His game has not withstood increased attention from postseason defenses.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Read on Twitter

It's Official

[Knightro]

Trading for Fultz was not draft strategy, it was roster management. Your logic would be sound if tanking was the only path to contention, but its not. As you conveniently describe it tanking is about accumulating assets, you get higher expected value from your picks, but lower from existing players and free agency. There is also diminishing return in most cases. The more young players you have the less value they represent due to minute restrictions, and lack of winning (think Pelicans, Hawks).
What we are doing is accumulating assets with different weigh distribution. We get less value from picks ( but still we are in a place where high upside players are often available), but more value from existing players and free agency. We havent capitalised much on it until now, but all signs point out we will. Signing Simmons and then fliping him for Fultz was one of these moves. Signing Aminu the second ( i believe he wouldnt sign with us if we werent a playoff team, many think he is a negative asset i believe he is still positive). Much will tell what we will do with Gordon.

I think we're discussing different things here.

Yes, the Magic have made a few moves with a long-term outlook in mind, but regardless of what the Magic's front office is doing on the fringes of the roster, they're absolutely unequivocally not tanking in any respect.

They hired a win-now coach and have fielded a team full of veterans in an effort to win as much as they possibly can.

[pepe1991]

Read on Twitter

It's Official

IT was never really a question. ACL tear takes 12-14 months to recover.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Read on Twitter

It's Official

IT was never really a question. ACL tear takes 12-14 months to recover.

there were plenty of people saying he could come back. Also somewhat refreshing to hear the FO not play the wishy washy game

[basketballRob]

Hopefully they extend Isaac after the new cap comes out. Just reading some of the tweets against giving Curry a 4 yr 44m deal.

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[Mike1989]

personally, i want us to trade the vets, go young and aim for a high draft pick. sadly, i dont believe ownership will allow it. They want us to be a competitive team every year out with the hope we can find our superstar without high draft picks ala toronto/milwaukee/brooklyn. We will be in the same position as the detroit pistons for the next couple years. Id rather watch a 25 win team with the hope of a high draft pick than a middling team with no future but oh well. hopefully we can find someone to build around with our 15th picks

The problem with hoping for high draft picks is they don’t always result in franchise changing players. We experienced that with our first three top five picks post-Dwight:

- 2: Oladipo became a star in Indiana, but with us and OKC he never played at that level. He flattered to deceive.
- 4: Gordon has done the same for us. He’s shown flashes. He’s teased us. But ultimately never taken a step towards stardom.
- 5: Hezonja never made the grade.
- 11: Sabonis was traded away and he’s since become an all star, but again, neither us or OKC viewed him as that level of player.
- 6: Isaac has played well and could potentially become a key part of this team if he can stay healthy, something he’s failed to do so far. The way he’s built and his history doesn’t bode well.
- 6: Bamba has this far failed to make an impact.

Now maybe had we kept Oladipo and Sabonis they could have become all stars for us, but overall our drafting post-Dwight has not been that good, nor has it seen us draft franchise changing talent. So although I can understand the let’s blow it up and rebuild argument, I’ll be honest, I’m not convinced I trust our front office or our team in general to get it right this time around unless we land lucky like the Thunder did (ie Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden in consecutive drafts).

[MasterGMer]

personally, i want us to trade the vets, go young and aim for a high draft pick. sadly, i dont believe ownership will allow it. They want us to be a competitive team every year out with the hope we can find our superstar without high draft picks ala toronto/milwaukee/brooklyn. We will be in the same position as the detroit pistons for the next couple years. Id rather watch a 25 win team with the hope of a high draft pick than a middling team with no future but oh well. hopefully we can find someone to build around with our 15th picks

The problem with hoping for high draft picks is they don’t always result in franchise changing players. We experienced that with our first three top five picks post-Dwight:

- 2: Oladipo became a star in Indiana, but with us and OKC he never played at that level. He flattered to deceive.
- 4: Gordon has done the same for us. He’s shown flashes. He’s teased us. But ultimately never taken a step towards stardom.
- 5: Hezonja never made the grade.
- 11: Sabonis was traded away and he’s since become an all star, but again, neither us or OKC viewed him as that level of player.
- 6: Isaac has played well and could potentially become a key part of this team if he can stay healthy, something he’s failed to do so far. The way he’s built and his history doesn’t bode well.
- 6: Bamba has this far failed to make an impact.

Now maybe had we kept Oladipo and Sabonis they could have become all stars for us, but overall our drafting post-Dwight has not been that good, nor has it seen us draft franchise changing talent. So although I can understand the let’s blow it up and rebuild argument, I’ll be honest, I’m not convinced I trust our front office or our team in general to get it right this time around unless we land lucky like the Thunder did (ie Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden in consecutive drafts).

The easiest way of acquiring a star is through the draft. Look at Dallas and Utah Jazz. I am against tanking and it won't work anymore. But we can trade for top picks.

[Mike1989]

personally, i want us to trade the vets, go young and aim for a high draft pick. sadly, i dont believe ownership will allow it. They want us to be a competitive team every year out with the hope we can find our superstar without high draft picks ala toronto/milwaukee/brooklyn. We will be in the same position as the detroit pistons for the next couple years. Id rather watch a 25 win team with the hope of a high draft pick than a middling team with no future but oh well. hopefully we can find someone to build around with our 15th picks

The problem with hoping for high draft picks is they don’t always result in franchise changing players. We experienced that with our first three top five picks post-Dwight:

- 2: Oladipo became a star in Indiana, but with us and OKC he never played at that level. He flattered to deceive.
- 4: Gordon has done the same for us. He’s shown flashes. He’s teased us. But ultimately never taken a step towards stardom.
- 5: Hezonja never made the grade.
- 11: Sabonis was traded away and he’s since become an all star, but again, neither us or OKC viewed him as that level of player.
- 6: Isaac has played well and could potentially become a key part of this team if he can stay healthy, something he’s failed to do so far. The way he’s built and his history doesn’t bode well.
- 6: Bamba has this far failed to make an impact.

Now maybe had we kept Oladipo and Sabonis they could have become all stars for us, but overall our drafting post-Dwight has not been that good, nor has it seen us draft franchise changing talent. So although I can understand the let’s blow it up and rebuild argument, I’ll be honest, I’m not convinced I trust our front office or our team in general to get it right this time around unless we land lucky like the Thunder did (ie Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden in consecutive drafts).

The easiest way of acquiring a star is through the draft. Look at Dallas and Utah Jazz. I am against tanking and it won't work anymore. But we can trade for top picks.

Dallas identified a potential franchise changing player when they got the opportunity to trade up for Doncic. Not many draft classes feature a player of that ilk.

Utah is a good example since Mitchell and Gobert we’re both taken outside the top ten. Ironically both drafted by Denver and traded to Utah.

Of course we can trade up for picks or be smart/lucky when we draft outside of the top picks. Mitchell was taken outside the top ten. Seven members of the eastern conference all stars game were taken outside the top ten. So talent can be identified if the people in the front office do a good job. All I was saying is that we haven’t had much luck at the top of the draft since Dwight.

[zaymon]

Trading for Fultz was not draft strategy, it was roster management. Your logic would be sound if tanking was the only path to contention, but its not. As you conveniently describe it tanking is about accumulating assets, you get higher expected value from your picks, but lower from existing players and free agency. There is also diminishing return in most cases. The more young players you have the less value they represent due to minute restrictions, and lack of winning (think Pelicans, Hawks).
What we are doing is accumulating assets with different weigh distribution. We get less value from picks ( but still we are in a place where high upside players are often available), but more value from existing players and free agency. We havent capitalised much on it until now, but all signs point out we will. Signing Simmons and then fliping him for Fultz was one of these moves. Signing Aminu the second ( i believe he wouldnt sign with us if we werent a playoff team, many think he is a negative asset i believe he is still positive). Much will tell what we will do with Gordon.

I think we're discussing different things here.

Yes, the Magic have made a few moves with a long-term outlook in mind, but regardless of what the Magic's front office is doing on the fringes of the roster, they're absolutely unequivocally not tanking in any respect.

They hired a win-now coach and have fielded a team full of veterans in an effort to win as much as they possibly can.

I agree that we didnt tank, but i dont agree that we were only focused on winning in the short term. We gave the starting spot to Markelle who costed us some games, but should help us moving forward. We gave steady minutes to Bamba who was on times near unplayable to support his development. Bamba would not be in rotation if we were only about winning this season. We drafted Okeke who was never going to help us this year.

[CZ Eddie]

We're getting too good to tank.
Need to keep our players to retain the mindset of "win-win-win".
If we tank next year, it could hurt us just as much in the long run as it helps.
Right now, everyone wants to find a way to win. And on a GOOD day, we are a DAMN GOOD team!

[pepe1991]

From Zach Lowe today on the Magic:

Opposites in Orlando: Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier
Vucevic is the anti-Myles Turner on offense: a willing 3-point bomber who abuses little guys on switches with a pivoty, soft-touch post game. After Marc Gasol stole a piece of Vucevic's soul in last season's first round, it was heartening to watch him pick-and-pop the Bucks into more of a fight than anyone expected.

Vucevic finally bonked some jump hooks in a 9-of-25 performance in Game 5 Saturday, and if there's one nit to pick on offense, it's (as usual) the lack of free throws. Eleven in five games isn't enough. But Vucevic was Orlando's only source of scoring.

In three (brief) playoff appearances, Fournier has never shot better than 35.3% or averaged more than 12.8 points and 2.6 assists. Three or four years ago, some within the Magic hoped Fournier would turn into a second or third option on a good team. A subset of those folks considered him a superior prospect to Oladipo.

Fournier has had some nice shooting seasons, including this one, but he has never advanced as a playmaker. His game has not withstood increased attention from postseason defenses.

Over last 3 years, Oladipo was better than Evan -once.
Last 2 years he didn't even play basketball to be worth talking.

101 out of 160 games ( including playoffs last year) he was out or usage due injuries.
And when he did plays, over last 2 years, he has been below average nba starter. Especially this year, 50%TS, -3,3 BPM, that's Hezonja on big usage there.

In hindsight Magic did right thing letting him go. He had one good year and just fall over a cliff. He was really good in that one year. But he is also really bad now, 28. And UFA.
If Orlando kept Oladipo and shipped Fournier, Magic faith would still be the same. They would have better 2017 season ( not pick Isaac), much better 2018 season, but after that, last 2 years, he would still be dead salary due injuries.

[MoMM]

Do you think we will bring Iwundu, Clark and Ennis back? I expect Ennis to opt-out to get a better deal and we won't pick Frazier's option.

[fendilim]

personally, i want us to trade the vets, go young and aim for a high draft pick. sadly, i dont believe ownership will allow it. They want us to be a competitive team every year out with the hope we can find our superstar without high draft picks ala toronto/milwaukee/brooklyn. We will be in the same position as the detroit pistons for the next couple years. Id rather watch a 25 win team with the hope of a high draft pick than a middling team with no future but oh well. hopefully we can find someone to build around with our 15th picks

The problem with hoping for high draft picks is they don’t always result in franchise changing players. We experienced that with our first three top five picks post-Dwight:

- 2: Oladipo became a star in Indiana, but with us and OKC he never played at that level. He flattered to deceive.
- 4: Gordon has done the same for us. He’s shown flashes. He’s teased us. But ultimately never taken a step towards stardom.
- 5: Hezonja never made the grade.
- 11: Sabonis was traded away and he’s since become an all star, but again, neither us or OKC viewed him as that level of player.
- 6: Isaac has played well and could potentially become a key part of this team if he can stay healthy, something he’s failed to do so far. The way he’s built and his history doesn’t bode well.
- 6: Bamba has this far failed to make an impact.

Now maybe had we kept Oladipo and Sabonis they could have become all stars for us, but overall our drafting post-Dwight has not been that good, nor has it seen us draft franchise changing talent. So although I can understand the let’s blow it up and rebuild argument, I’ll be honest, I’m not convinced I trust our front office or our team in general to get it right this time around unless we land lucky like the Thunder did (ie Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden in consecutive drafts).

The easiest way of acquiring a star is through the draft. Look at Dallas and Utah Jazz. I am against tanking and it won't work anymore. But we can trade for top picks.

the problem is do we have enough assets to get top picks

[MoMM]

When is Evan's deadline to pick his option or not?

[pepe1991]

From 2013 to 2018 Magic selected 7 (SEVEN!) players in lottery.
Including 2#, 4#,5# and two 6# picks. And made additional trade for former 1# pick.

If rebuilding via tank is such a sucess, where are all those allstars now?

Oladipo- one good season in his career.
Payton - well below average starter
Hezonja- below average role player
Gordon- average starter
Sabonis - ( not Magic decision to draft, picked by OKC)
Isaac- injuries
Bamba- below average backup (for now)
Fultz- average starter

Most of lottery selected players, if they are not top 3 picks- ARE NOT ALLSTARS. And even ones who are,are not franchize altering players. In vacuum, Vuc, MIddelton, Lowry, Griffin, Green, Love, even Paul George are all allstars ( or were in last 2 years). Non of them on his own will make you pass second round of playoffs.

Add to that fact that most players don't actually reach their prime while playing for team that drafted him. Hence- Anthony Davis, Harden, Durant, Westbrook, Lebron... Giannis might be newest " F you , i'm gone" member after this season is over.


I went back to 2001 to see how landing 1# pick turned franchize around... and .. it's not that good.

green font great impact
red font no impact
yellow font moderate impact

2001- Kwame Brown. Historic failure
2002- Ming - never passed 1st round of playoffs
2003- James, first stint with Cavs lead to one nba finals trip ( swept)
2004- Howard- led to one nba finals L
2005- Bogut- nothing
2006- Bargnani- nothing
2007- Oden
2008 - Rose
2009- Griffin
2010 Wall
2011 Irving (as solo star literally nothing, as co star with 2 allstars , nba champion)
2012- Davis could just as easly put red. First round exit teams
2013 Bennett
2014 Wiggins
2015 Towns
2016 Simmons
2017 Fultz

Winning lottery still doesn't mean jack **** most of the time.

Sorry for crappy yellow font

There is no blueprint how to become nba contender. Paths are combined. Worst path to championship is to tear down whole roster. If you go back and see worst win percentagees never end up being sucess.
Hornets in 2012 had worst win percentage in history. 8 years later never had any sucess.
2010 Nets- no sucess later
2000 Clippers- no sucess later
2015 T wolves ( no sucess to this date other than 1 playoff first round exit)
2001 Warriors ( decade later turned into something )
2013-2017 Philadelphia- swept in first round this year

Tearing down simply doesn't work

[pinoynurse]

personally, i want us to trade the vets, go young and aim for a high draft pick. sadly, i dont believe ownership will allow it. They want us to be a competitive team every year out with the hope we can find our superstar without high draft picks ala toronto/milwaukee/brooklyn. We will be in the same position as the detroit pistons for the next couple years. Id rather watch a 25 win team with the hope of a high draft pick than a middling team with no future but oh well. hopefully we can find someone to build around with our 15th picks

The problem with hoping for high draft picks is they don’t always result in franchise changing players. We experienced that with our first three top five picks post-Dwight:

- 2: Oladipo became a star in Indiana, but with us and OKC he never played at that level. He flattered to deceive.
- 4: Gordon has done the same for us. He’s shown flashes. He’s teased us. But ultimately never taken a step towards stardom.
- 5: Hezonja never made the grade.
- 11: Sabonis was traded away and he’s since become an all star, but again, neither us or OKC viewed him as that level of player.
- 6: Isaac has played well and could potentially become a key part of this team if he can stay healthy, something he’s failed to do so far. The way he’s built and his history doesn’t bode well.
- 6: Bamba has this far failed to make an impact.

Now maybe had we kept Oladipo and Sabonis they could have become all stars for us, but overall our drafting post-Dwight has not been that good, nor has it seen us draft franchise changing talent. So although I can understand the let’s blow it up and rebuild argument, I’ll be honest, I’m not convinced I trust our front office or our team in general to get it right this time around unless we land lucky like the Thunder did (ie Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden in consecutive drafts).

Absolutely the draft is a crapshoot. Especially now with the new odds. And yet what are the odds of acquiring a franchise star while being a 1st round exit playoff team? Even more so a crapshoot. You could easily become the next milwauke bucks or the detroit pistons. For me milwaukee/toronto is the exception not the standard. Even now the player who we could say is the closest thing to a franchise talent we could build around, was the number 6th pick in his draft. In the end both methods are crap, just have to decide which crap you’re willing to deal with

[Bensational]

We don't need to tank for better picks, we just need to draft better with the picks we're given. In the course of our rebuild we could have taken Giannis, or Gobert, or CJ, or LaVine, or Booker, or Siakam, or Mitchell, or SGA.

Even in our current form as a team teetering between the 10-17 picks, we could've been in position to take the likes of Giannis, Gobert, Siakam, Mitchell or SGA.

Put simply, we've not seen any additions from the last 3 drafts who look positioned to carry our future, and we're going to have to wait another 2 seasons to even see how close they can get.

WeHam need to get more aggressive in pursuing a draft star. That doesn't mean tanking, it just means doing a better job of the draft.