Around The NBA: 2019-20 RESTART

[kodo]

Mitchell still has a pretty loose handle, could really cost them in G7.

[kodo]

Damn, incredibly finish to a G7.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Mitchell still has a pretty loose handle, could really cost them in G7.

Well I guess it did

[Chi town]

That was fun.

Murray has to pull that out and run out the clock.

[DASMACKDOWN]

That was fun.

Murray has to pull that out and run out the clock.

That would have been the alltime dumbest play if they lost that game. That was worse than JR Smith.

[dice]

That was fun.

Murray has to pull that out and run out the clock.

real tough to refrain from assisting on a fast break layup to seal the game there. probably ends up having to go to the line if he tries pulling it out, but he's an elite FT shooter, so of course if he had to do it again he wouldn't give up the ball

could the jazz have called TO and advanced the ball off the rebound?

[dumbell78]

That was fun.

Murray has to pull that out and run out the clock.

real tough to refrain from assisting on a fast break layup to seal the game there. probably ends up having to go to the line if he tries pulling it out, but he's an elite FT shooter, so of course if he had to do it again he wouldn't give up the ball

could the jazz have called TO and advanced the ball off the rebound?

Think Jazz ran out of TO's at the end.

Yeah he has to pull that out and fight the urge for a layup. Kill some clock and make the FT's.

[nomorezorro]

Mitchell still has a pretty loose handle, could really cost them in G7.

damn dude good call

[Leslie Forman]

That was fun.

Murray has to pull that out and run out the clock.

That would have been the alltime dumbest play if they lost that game. That was worse than JR Smith.

Nah, it was the right play, they just, you know, should have made the damn layup. The game would have been completely sealed then.

Imagine if he stopped, got trapped, and then turned it over. Then everybody would be like "WTf YoU Had A lAyUp!?!?!"

[Chi town]

That was fun.

Murray has to pull that out and run out the clock.

That would have been the alltime dumbest play if they lost that game. That was worse than JR Smith.

Nah, it was the right play, they just, you know, should have made the damn layup. The game would have been completely sealed then.

Imagine if he stopped, got trapped, and then turned it over. Then everybody would be like "WTf YoU Had A lAyUp!?!?!"

The layup was contested. He had a timeout and would have been fouled.

[Southpaw]

Would you trade Bam Adebayo for Joel Embiid if you're Miami right now?

Yes because Embiid at his best is better than Bam. And I think the Heat culture can bring out the best of him.

Love me some Jimmy Buckets! He was a beast last game. I always thought we should've just rebuilt around Jimmy and Niko after the Rose/Thibs era. Would've been great rooting for homegrown stars.

I used to be an instant yes because like you said, Embiid at his peak is better than Bam, but Bam is 23 years old and looks really good and healthy while Embiid is 26 years old with an injury history you can't ignore. Embiid looks like he only has a good 3-5 years left of prime which aligns really well with Butler's remaining prime years, so if you were to go for that title, that's your window right there.

My favorite "what if" was drafting Nurkic and Harris instead of Doug McFartface and having a lineup of Harris/Butler/Mirotic/Nurk with Taj off the bench and cap space. Nurk looks like a major difference maker in Portland and a healthy Gary Harris would have been a great complement to Butler with his high efficiency scoring and defense (when healthy). Then you would have had cap space to bring in another star or fill the bench with quality role players.

The bolded part is why I'd do the trade if I was MIA. I feel like Embiid is enough of an upgrade over Bam that it could put them over the hump.

Agree with the Nurkic/Harris what if but I'm not sure they are who GarPax would pick if we kept the picks. Nurkic is a difference maker and Harris is a solid 2 way wing.

That was a fun game 7 with an exciting ending. Home tomorrow's game would be fun as well.

[SMTBSI]

Miami and Boston demonstrating that the PF position in the nba is dead. Run two sf out there, as long as they aren’t undersized / weak, and you can defend against 4s while having an advantage on the other end. That has some serious implications on Lauri’s future (5 or bust) and the draft (downgrade Toppin, Deni).

The writing's on the wall, imo. When I mess around with stats and rankings these days, anyone who doesn't move like a wing gets classified as a Center, no matter how lacking in defensive chops or how undersized they would have been thought to be in earlier eras. You just can't have two slow-footed players on the court at the same time anymore.

[Leslie Forman]

That would have been the alltime dumbest play if they lost that game. That was worse than JR Smith.

Nah, it was the right play, they just, you know, should have made the damn layup. The game would have been completely sealed then.

Imagine if he stopped, got trapped, and then turned it over. Then everybody would be like "WTf YoU Had A lAyUp!?!?!"

The layup was contested. He had a timeout and would have been fouled.

Nah. It was just Conley and he was on his heels concentrating on Murray. That should be a guaranteed two points for any healthy 6'7" professional basketball player.

[dice]

Nah, it was the right play, they just, you know, should have made the damn layup. The game would have been completely sealed then.

Imagine if he stopped, got trapped, and then turned it over. Then everybody would be like "WTf YoU Had A lAyUp!?!?!"

The layup was contested. He had a timeout and would have been fouled.

Nah. It was just Conley and he was on his heels concentrating on Murray. That should be a guaranteed two points for any healthy 6'7" professional basketball player.

murray reached the 3 pt line on the dribble w/ 8 secs left, at which point he had the option of dishing for the layup, keeping the ball and circling to the left corner, or passing to a wide open gary harris (80% FT shooter) on the left wing. the layup was blown w/ 6 secs (lightly contested as conley was stopping ball first on a 2-on-1 break), so the defense would not have begun to adjust on either of the other two options until about the 6 second mark. would have taken at least a couple of seconds to foul from that point

under the circumstances, i think that layup goes down about 80% of the time. and there's an O-rebound or loose ball maybe 1/4 of the time on the misses (assume for simplicity that that's game over). of the remaining 15%, maybe a third of the time the jazz turn the ball over or fail to get off a decent shot. so overall 10% of the time dishing for the layup plays out like it did w/ the jazz desperately seeking a good look at a final shot after rebounding w/ 5 secs left and no TOs

now say he keeps or passes to harris. maybe 30% of the time they're able to run out the clock, game over. 5% of the time there's a freak turnover and 65% of the time they go to the line. 2.5% of the remaining 65% results in both FTs missed, 42.5% both are made (game over) and 15% the FTs are split

so...

10% chance for a decent look down 2

VS

7.5% chance of desperation heave down 2 AND
additional 15% chance of desperation heave down 3

on margin i think that the combined total desperation scenarios are not as bad for the nuggets as the 10% chance of giving up a decent look following the dish for a layup attempt. so i'd say that murray indeed made a mistake, but a very minor one. substantially bigger chance that the jazz get a shot at the tie/win if the nuggets settle for FTs, but the look is very likely to be much poorer

so what if the jazz had a TO remaining and could have advanced the ball? that changes the calculus. did murray have the presence of mind in the moment to recognize that the jazz had no TOs? very unlikely. few players would while fast breaking off a turnover. so if we really wanted to determine whether the play was boneheaded we'd have to take the scenario where the jazz have a TO into account (which would be the standard case)

[Dresden]

That was fun.

Murray has to pull that out and run out the clock.

That would have been the alltime dumbest play if they lost that game. That was worse than JR Smith.

Nah, it was the right play, they just, you know, should have made the damn layup. The game would have been completely sealed then.

Imagine if he stopped, got trapped, and then turned it over. Then everybody would be like "WTf YoU Had A lAyUp!?!?!"

No they wouldn't. And this play will be used as a lesson in the future as to why you should not try for the layup.

[Dresden]

Nah, it was the right play, they just, you know, should have made the damn layup. The game would have been completely sealed then.

Imagine if he stopped, got trapped, and then turned it over. Then everybody would be like "WTf YoU Had A lAyUp!?!?!"

The layup was contested. He had a timeout and would have been fouled.

Nah. It was just Conley and he was on his heels concentrating on Murray. That should be a guaranteed two points for any healthy 6'7" professional basketball player.

Well, we saw how "guaranteed" it was.

[Dresden]

Quick thoughts on watching TOR go down 0-2 to the Celtics: Pascal Siakam looks a lot more like Hakeem Warrick than he does Kawhi Leonard, and no way in heck I'm paying FVV anything close to 25 mil per year. He has been abysmal so far this series.

[MGB8]

Miami and Boston demonstrating that the PF position in the nba is dead. Run two sf out there, as long as they aren’t undersized / weak, and you can defend against 4s while having an advantage on the other end. That has some serious implications on Lauri’s future (5 or bust) and the draft (downgrade Toppin, Deni).

The writing's on the wall, imo. When I mess around with stats and rankings these days, anyone who doesn't move like a wing gets classified as a Center, no matter how lacking in defensive chops or how undersized they would have been thought to be in earlier eras. You just can't have two slow-footed players on the court at the same time anymore.

Exactly this.

But beyond that, look at what your team (the Celtics, I'm presuming per the patch on your profile) is doing to Siakam, who I thought was among the premier 4's in the NBA, with enough quickness to defend opposing 3s as well as 4s (and 2s and 1s, and of course smaller 5s). It's not just an issue of being quick enough defensively any more. If that was the case, then Siakam (or a poor man's version like Thad Young) would be ideal.

But in the 5 out era, you need to be quick enough not just to defend opposing 3s... but to GET PAST them when you are on offense (or, at least, have the size advantage enough to offset a lack of the lack of quickness matchup on the other end). If you don't have that level of speed and quickness, you are a liability at the "4." Or, more accurate, with the exception of larger guys who have enough defensive quickness, like Anthony Davis (or, when he was in the league, Chris Bosh) - playing anyone other than a guy who can legitimately play SF at the 4 spot is now an offensive liability against a lot of teams (given the new rules which have reduced bully ball) and emphasize spacing, and the related ability to beat a SF-speed defender if they come out to guard hard at or beyond the 3 point line.

[MGB8]

Quick thoughts on watching TOR go down 0-2 to the Celtics: Pascal Siakam looks a lot more like Hakeem Warrick than he does Kawhi Leonard, and no way in heck I'm paying FVV anything close to 25 mil per year. He has been abysmal so far this series.

See, I don't think that's fair. The problem is that Boston figured out what folks had figured out against Dirk after the championship - you guard him with a "3" - and his productivity is much reduced. Siakam eats up opposing 4s, and can guard them and switch to smaller players, but he doesn't have the same matchup advantage on a defender who has SF level speed/quickness and size (since Siakam, while not small at 6.8.25 w/out shooes and an 8.11.5 inch standing reach, still isn't as big as, say, a Giannis (who was a touch bigger at the combine but then grew a couple of inches) or even Anthony Davis (an inch taller / longer at the combine and also seemed to grow a touch, maybe a half an inch or so, after entering the league).

Actually, I'm not sure that even Anthony Davis, who is only a little bit bigger than Siakam, couldn't be significantly limited by the same strategy. The new rules / officiating and "5-out" style play put an emphasis on quickness - not power.

[Jeffster81]

Not going to lie but watching Murray .v. Mitchell was the most fun I had watching basketball since Bulls/Celtics epic 1st rd battle. Only regret is that it is over.