The Troy Brown Thread

[trast66]

[/quote]His occupation on his tax return is Matador.

He's not Isaiah Thomas, but everyone... goes right around him - players of all shapes, sizes, athletic abilities, colors, religious persuasions, and dietary restrictions. Even vegans literally (not literally) eat him for breakfast.

I mean... we are all able to actually watch him - what do you think of him as a defender?[/quote]

Certainly he stinks on D. But they all do. Brad has not tried on D in years. If John and Brad try then the others will as well, though I never caught on to what system the coaches were trying to implement.

Troy lacks elite athleticism to be more than an average team defender, but he could be somewhat usable if the stars buy in to defensive principles that incorporate the strengths of the guys on this team.

But you do need a a fairly elite perimeter defender on the floor along with some semblance of rim protection. As Troy is neither, it will limit his time on court as he provides little spacing or penetration on offense. He is a complimentary player, but we need some of those as long as we can pay them below market value.

I like the guys game, he’s only 20, material improvement of his outside shooting will lead to a fine NBA career.

[dckingsfan]

Code: Select all

Year    Age  MP     TS%     3P%     FT%     AST%   TOV%   USG%   DRB%   STL%  BLK%  DRtg  WS/48   VORP
18-19   19    730   0.487   0.319   0.681   14.9   10.5   16.5   16.6   1.4   0.6   115   0.039   -0.1
19-20   20   1782   0.524   0.341   0.784   14.1   10.4   17.8   19.6   2.2   0.3   114   0.065    0.3

[nate33]

I feel like Troy gets abused by opposing small forwards. They just overpower him. He holds his own against shooting guards.

[payitforward]

PIF, the numbers/stats individual players put up don’t tell the whole story. They never do and never will. Basketball is, after all, a team game....

No matter what part of reality, any reality, we look at, some of it escapes our ability to analyze it. Our analysis of anything is not the same as the thing itself, not an exact equivalent of it.

But, that doesn't mean we stop analyzing. Or that there is benefit or objective significance to our attempts to understand the world.

Tell me, do great players post great individual numbers? Yes. Can you point to a single example of a great player who didn't or doesn't post great individual numbers? Did Michael? Does Giannis? How about LeBron?

How about bad players? Do bad players post lousy individual numbers? Yes. Can you point to a single example of a bad player who didn't or doesn't post bad individual numbers? Did Eric Maynor? Did IT post awful numbers this year? IT shot the 3 great this year. Is that enough to call him good?

If Troy can’t make 3s and is a mediocre jump shooter, it doesn’t simply impact his numbers it inevitably affects those of his teammates.

This year, Troy shot 34.8% on 3's. He took 178 of them & made 61. An average wing shoots 36.2% on 3's. On 178 shots, he makes 64. There's the possible area where, in almost 1800 minutes this year, Troy's 3-point shooting had a negative effect worse than that of an average wing. Three misses.

How about his getting a rebound? Does that have an effect on his teammates? If he gets more rebounds than that average wing I just pointed to -- doesn't that benefit his teammates?

How about if he gets more steals than that average wing? Any benefit to his teammates in that?

What if he turns it over less than an average wing? Does that benefit his teammates?

If Troy can’t stay in front of the guy he’s guarding and that player gets to the hoop for an easy basket, that affects the score/outcome of the game…even though Troy’s getting beat off the dribble won't show up on his stat sheet....

Absolutely! & if we want to understand the effect of that, we have to quantify that problem. Moreover, he has to improve on defense -- though this BS about "matador" & the idea that players get by him at will... that's all BS. If it were so, teams would never run a play other than at him when he was on the floor.

I’m a BIG fan of Troy’s and have been since the Zards drafted him...

&, as I'm sure you recall, I was NOT a big fan of drafting him. I was wrong. When will the next person who posts on this Board write "I was wrong," I wonder?

... if he’s going to become an “above average wing” he needs to become a better shooter... and a better defender.

Nope. Overall, he's already comfortably above average. But if he's going to become better than he already is 4 weeks after turning 21, you bet -- he needs to improve those things. Of course he does.

But, of course, everything he does better will make him a better player -- not just shooting. &, of course, the road is the same for every player. To be better, he has to play better -- shoot better, rebound better, turn the ball over less, etc. etc. etc. Because how you do all those things is how good a player you are.

In Troy Brown's case, he already does shoot the ball better than he did as a rookie -- substantially better, given that he improved significantly on an increase in usage.

Of course, I’m saying all of this based on how I personally evaluate and value wing players...which goes beyond numbers and stats.

Absolutely nothing in this post by you indicates that you evaluate a wing (any player) in any way "beyond numbers and stats." So, if you'll allow me to say this respectfully, I really don't see how you do.

If you evaluated Troy Brown in some other way, why would you say that to be better he needs to improve his numbers? You didn't suggest that there's something other than numbers on which he needs to improve, did you?

Of course, locker room stuff, etc. matters in our evaluation of a guy -- not so much as a player but whether we want him on the team. But, you didn't point at anything like that, & anyway I don't think you or anyone sees that kind of problem with him.

We all think that Troy Brown has tremendous potential to improve -- how could anyone think otherwise of a guy who turned 21 after playing two seasons in the NBA?! It would be pretty sad if a month after his 21st birthday one could conclude that he'd reached his peak!

[payitforward]

Today's NBA game does indeed call for wing players to excel at shooting 3s and defending. And Troy struggles to do both at this point in his career. But he somewhat makes up for those shortcomings with his above average skills as a rebounder and passer, and his improving ability to create offense for himself and teammates.

If Troy improves as a shooter (which I believe he will) and as a defender, he’ll become that Swiss-army knife type of wing player who, imo, is far more valuable--and hard to find--than one who only excels at shooting 3s and defending.

There's already a LOT to like about Troy's game. His development, and not his fit, should be the focus.

This is exactly correct. & since he has already improved substantially as a 3-point shooter, we have likely got less to worry about in that department than you would think from reading this thread.

[dckingsfan]

I feel like Troy gets abused by opposing small forwards. They just overpower him. He holds his own against shooting guards.

And therein lies the problem for the short-term. He is too small to play SF (opinion). And he has trouble with quick PGs - but who doesn't. It is even more of a problem considering the lack of rim protection on the team. He really is a combo guard. If you believe that next season Wall/Beal/Smith take most of the on-ball minutes. Well, then you are looking past the next season - which is fine as well.

One more thought on this - I think Brown will improve again this year and that may increase his trade value as well. Then again, he may have peaked. Green Font PIF

[payitforward]

Here's something interesting. Rui Hachimura is a year and a half older than Troy Brown.

He played high level college ball for 3 years as opposed to Troy's single year -- maybe 2.5 times the minutes? something like that?

He is a far worse 3-point shooter than Brown, even though he only shoots them when he is completely open/unguarded.

He's a 4 not a wing, yet he doesn't get as many rebounds as Troy -- who plays a lot of his minutes at the 1 or 2.

He is an extremely poor defender with very little feel for that part of the game.

He gets half the steals Troy gets For that same reason -- lack of feel.

He gets 60% of the assists Troy Brown gets: same reason -- lack of feel or BBIQ or whatever you prefer to call it. He just doesn't see the floor, & he can't pass.

He manages .08 more blocks per 40 minutes than Troy (less than a tenth of a block more) because he's rarely where he should be on defense. Even though he's twice the size.

Is Rui promising? Absolutely!

Is he anywhere near as good an NBA player as Brown -- who is all of 4 weeks past his 21st birthday? Don't make me laugh! It ain't close.

Try to imagine Rui Hachimura running the offense, why don't you? Any offense at any serious level of basketball. Think about that for a minute. What would that look like...?

But there is nobody here complaining about Rui. Nobody saying oh wow he can't do this or that we better get rid of him. That gets saved for Troy.

As it did for Brad, btw, through 4 long seasons. I don't recall any more who among this group criticizing Brown was calling for Brad to be traded, but I bet I could find it if I went back for a look.

Blah blah blah....

Spoiler:

I took a break to watch some episodes of The Mandalorian -- it's great: top-level Star Wars stuff. If you haven't watched it, well, you have a treat before you.

I mention this so you know that I'm thinking of you -- what's good for you & what you would enjoy -- because I consider you all my friends here, & for that same reason I don't judge you too harshly even though, sorry, whereof you speak, thereof you don't know sh*t.

Sleep tight.

[dckingsfan]

Solid points on Brown vs. Rui.

But that coming from someone that sees less upside from Rui at his position due to his inability to rebound and rim protect at a high enough level. So, maybe my opinion on Rui should be ignored.

I still think that looking at Brown, Rui and Bonga should all be treated as independent events. And maybe Bryant and Wagner for that matter too (all age related).

Is your point that we should hold onto all of our youngsters with the notion of a probabilistic event that some number of those 5 will develop and we don't know which ones will?

[payitforward]

...I still think that)...

Wait, hold on: first, before we continue this conversation, let me say that I regret that we (especially I) seem so often to have to take extreme positions on guys who are so young -- Brown, Rui, or any of them. It's not very enlightening -- or enlightened. I'm going to try again to mend my ways.

...looking at Brown, Rui and Bonga should all be treated as independent events. And maybe Bryant and Wagner for that matter too (all age related)....

Absolutely! How can you assess them other than as individuals?

...Is your point that we should hold onto all of our youngsters...?

Nah, should the right deal come along, any one of them should be fair game to trade -- as should any player for that matter. But, in such a case, we should & surely would be trading for more youth!

But, we have "all of our youngsters" -- & it doesn't stop at the 5 you mention; it also includes Mathews, Schofield & Robinson -- because we are a rebuilding team. Only two Washington Wizards players were on the team 2 years ago -- Bradley Beal & John Wall. Only 4 were on the team one year ago! & Bryant is only here because Tommy Sheppard insisted. Though I'm convinced we'll retain Bertans, for now the team consists of John, Brad, Ish, & the kiddy corps.

Plus, we are about to bring in 2, maybe 3 more rookies. How much more radical can a rebuild get? So, no, this is not the time to come to judgement on any young players. Not Troy, not Rui, not any of them.

...with the notion of a probabilistic event that some number of those 5 will develop and we don't know which ones will?

Hell no... we aren't picking at random with the hope that someone will work out! We think every one of those guys has a chance to be good -- why else would we have them on the team? Of course "probability" enters into results, as it does in all aspects of life. But that's a matter of eventuality not strategy.

[dckingsfan]

Thanks for your thinking on the youngsters... I would love to hear Tommy's take on this.

[gtn130]

This year, Troy shot 34.8% on 3's. He took 178 of them & made 61. An average wing shoots 36.2% on 3's. On 178 shots, he makes 64. There's the possible area where, in almost 1800 minutes this year, Troy's 3-point shooting had a negative effect worse than that of an average wing. Three misses.

PIF, this type of analysis perfectly crystalizes what you get wrong with the numbers. His 3pt % alone doesn't tell nearly enough of a story for us to draw many conclusions. What matters is how closely he's guarded and how difficult his shots are. Is he taking wide open 3s at a 34.8% clips? If so, that's really quite bad. Is he taking contested 3s off the dribble? That would be pretty good. Good shooters create space because they need to be closely guarded and if you are a wing player who isn't being closely guarded out to the 3pt line then you are a problem for your offense.

Trae Young is a career 34.4% 3pt shooter. Damien Lillard is a career 37.1% shooter.

[Ruzious]

This year, Troy shot 34.8% on 3's. He took 178 of them & made 61. An average wing shoots 36.2% on 3's. On 178 shots, he makes 64. There's the possible area where, in almost 1800 minutes this year, Troy's 3-point shooting had a negative effect worse than that of an average wing. Three misses.

PIF, this type of analysis perfectly crystalizes what you get wrong with the numbers. His 3pt % alone doesn't tell nearly enough of a story for us to draw many conclusions. What matters is how closely he's guarded and how difficult his shots are. Is he taking wide open 3s at a 34.8% clips? If so, that's really quite bad. Is he taking contested 3s off the dribble? That would be pretty good. Good shooters create space because they need to be closely guarded and if you are a wing player who isn't being closely guarded out to the 3pt line then you are a problem for your offense.

Trae Young is a career 34.4% 3pt shooter. Damien Lillard is a career 37.1% shooter.

Satoransky was a case in point. Shooting only wide open 3's for the Wiz, he made 39.5% on 2.7 attempts per 36 minutes. But Chicago wanted him to shoot more 3's, so he attempted 3.8 per 36 with them, and he made only 32.2%.

[payitforward]

This year, Troy shot 34.8% on 3's. He took 178 of them & made 61. An average wing shoots 36.2% on 3's. On 178 shots, he makes 64. There's the possible area where, in almost 1800 minutes this year, Troy's 3-point shooting had a negative effect worse than that of an average wing. Three misses.

PIF, this type of analysis perfectly crystalizes what you get wrong with the numbers. ...

Sigh... No. What you write perfectly crystalizes the power of a framing narrative -- no matter how arbitrary -- to enable one to ignore facts.

The point of pretty much everything I've written about Troy is that he is good at many things while improving on others -- & he just turned 21. Overall, he's above average -- using measures that relate to wins, contribution to wins. & this is true even if you don't like it being true.

...His 3pt % alone doesn't tell nearly enough of a story for us to draw many conclusions....

That is quite correct. So... let's stop drawing conclusions based on his 3pt. % alone (i.e. on whether/how well he shoots the three).

What matters is how closely he's guarded and how difficult his shots are....

A 3-point shot that a player makes is worth 3 points. That is the key thing that matters. So, what you mean is something a little different. You mean that it's easier to make an open shot than one where you are closely guarded.

This is not exactly a profound point, right? I mean... it's true of every player & every shot. So, I guess we should stop tracking 3-point % -- or 2-point % for that matter, since the same thing applies? Is that right? Let's take FG%, eFG% & TS% out of our evaluations, shall we? Of all players. After all, those %s don't tell us anything about the player -- do I have that correct?

...if you are a wing player who isn't being closely guarded out to the 3pt line then you are a problem for your offense....

Once again, no. What you mean is that if you are a wing player who must be closely guarded out to the 3pt line, that is a good thing.

But, that's not enough to conclude that if you aren't that guy you are a problem for your offense. After all, there are other ways to contribute to your team's offense. One way would be to be above average in assists. Another would be to turn the ball over at a less than average rate. Another would be to get more offensive rebounds than an average wing. Getting more defensive rebounds than average also helps your offense by giving it extra possessions. Ditto if you get more steals.

Troy Brown does every one of those things better than an average NBA wing -- even though he only turned 21 a month ago. Moreover, every one of those things count in determining how much he helps or hurts his offense -- & how good a player he is at this point in his career.

But, of course, when we talk about a player who came into the league at 19 & just turned 21, we wouldn't dream of making an overall judgment about "how good a player he is," even if all those numbers are better than an average NBA wing of any age. We'd be happy that he's already better than average numbers overall, but we'd be even more interested in how he's developing -- i.e. whether he's improving.

So, if we saw that he scored almost 20% more points per 40 minutes his second year than his first, we'd think that was good. We'd think so especially if he also improved his 2pt%, his 3pt%, & his FT % -- & therefore substantially improved his TS%. & we'd be even happier if we saw that he did all these things on higher usage.

If at the same time, we saw that, overall, the rest of his productivity numbers -- from rebounding to fouls committed -- had improved his second year, I'd say we had good reason to be happy with our just-turned-21 kid at the beginning of his NBA career.

[payitforward]

This year, Troy shot 34.8% on 3's. He took 178 of them & made 61. An average wing shoots 36.2% on 3's. On 178 shots, he makes 64. There's the possible area where, in almost 1800 minutes this year, Troy's 3-point shooting had a negative effect worse than that of an average wing. Three misses.

PIF, this type of analysis perfectly crystalizes what you get wrong with the numbers. His 3pt % alone doesn't tell nearly enough of a story for us to draw many conclusions. What matters is how closely he's guarded and how difficult his shots are. Is he taking wide open 3s at a 34.8% clips? If so, that's really quite bad. Is he taking contested 3s off the dribble? That would be pretty good. Good shooters create space because they need to be closely guarded and if you are a wing player who isn't being closely guarded out to the 3pt line then you are a problem for your offense.

Trae Young is a career 34.4% 3pt shooter. Damien Lillard is a career 37.1% shooter.

Satoransky was a case in point. Shooting only wide open 3's for the Wiz, he made 39.5% on 2.7 attempts per 36 minutes. But Chicago wanted him to shoot more 3's, so he attempted 3.8 per 36 with them, and he made only 32.2%.

What need is there for a case in point? If a person does 2 things, A & B, then if B is harder to do than A, he'll do it less well. Wow! What an insight!

Steph Curry will make a higher % of his open 3's than of those where he's closely guarded. Guys will make a higher % dunks when the rim isn't defended than when it is. Also with their eyes open than closed.

You know what? If we drive a little faster, we'll get where we are going a little sooner. I'm sure glad we got that settled....

[payitforward]

One more thing, b/c I can't stop myself!

...(Troy's) 3pt % alone doesn't tell nearly enough of a story for us to draw many conclusions. What matters is how closely he's guarded and how difficult his shots are....

His rookie year, Troy took just under four 3-point attempts per 40 minutes. He made 31.9% of them. This year, Troy took about 20% more 3s per 40 minutes. He made 34.8% of them. Which year was Troy Brown more closely guarded?

"how difficult his shots are..." -- doesn't that also imply that there's a question to ask about how good those defenders were?

So, tell me: did Troy Brown face better players as a 700-minute rookie mostly logging mop-up minutes? Or did he face better defenders as a 2d year player, logging 1800 minutes in a shortened season?

&, finally (I hope!): if Troy Brown had shot 33.8% on his 3s this year, instead of 34.8%, would that have been worse? Or would it tell us nothing at all?

[Ruzious]

PIF, this type of analysis perfectly crystalizes what you get wrong with the numbers. His 3pt % alone doesn't tell nearly enough of a story for us to draw many conclusions. What matters is how closely he's guarded and how difficult his shots are. Is he taking wide open 3s at a 34.8% clips? If so, that's really quite bad. Is he taking contested 3s off the dribble? That would be pretty good. Good shooters create space because they need to be closely guarded and if you are a wing player who isn't being closely guarded out to the 3pt line then you are a problem for your offense.

Trae Young is a career 34.4% 3pt shooter. Damien Lillard is a career 37.1% shooter.

Satoransky was a case in point. Shooting only wide open 3's for the Wiz, he made 39.5% on 2.7 attempts per 36 minutes. But Chicago wanted him to shoot more 3's, so he attempted 3.8 per 36 with them, and he made only 32.2%.

What need is there for a case in point? If a person does 2 things, A & B, then if B is harder to do than A, he'll do it less well. Wow! What an insight!

Steph Curry will make a higher % of his open 3's than of those where he's closely guarded. Guys will make a higher % dunks when the rim isn't defended than when it is. Also with their eyes open than closed.

You know what? If we drive a little faster, we'll get where we are going a little sooner. I'm sure glad we got that settled....

You were the one trying to make light of Brown's 3 point shooting problem by simply pointing out his 3 point shooting percentage. You were the one who was being overly simplistic. And you still apparently don't get the importance of stretching a defense.

[Ruzious]

One more thing, b/c I can't stop myself!

...(Troy's) 3pt % alone doesn't tell nearly enough of a story for us to draw many conclusions. What matters is how closely he's guarded and how difficult his shots are....

His rookie year, Troy took just under four 3-point attempts per 40 minutes. He made 31.9% of them. This year, Troy took about 20% more 3s per 40 minutes. He made 34.8% of them. Which year was Troy Brown more closely guarded?

"how difficult his shots are..." -- doesn't that also imply that there's a question to ask about how good those defenders were?

So, tell me: did Troy Brown face better players as a 700-minute rookie mostly logging mop-up minutes? Or did he face better defenders as a 2d year player, logging 1800 minutes in a shortened season?

&, finally (I hope!): if Troy Brown had shot 33.8% on his 3s this year, instead of 34.8%, would that have been worse? Or would it tell us nothing at all?

I mean... when you start out an unacceptable rate, it's not that hard to improve - but it is a good sign that he did. He's still got more to go to be average. Is that fair?

[dckingsfan]

As a wing defender, he needs to be able to keep folks in front of him. He is a very good defensive rebounder and steals the ball at more than an acceptable rate. Stretch opinion: I think he can become a reasonable wing defender by working on his body, not getting bigger but leaner.

On the offensive end he is a good but not great passer. I don't know how much that will improve. But he doesn't turn the ball over much and I see that continuing to be the case even with greater usage. And he is improving his 3 point shot, but it isn't there yet. Will he ever get to .4xx? Don't know.

Either way, that isn't the prototypical 3&D wing, I think he is suited more to a SG position that handles the ball more. In this line-up that is a backup to Beal.

Or putting it another way, I am not sold that we have a quality starting SF, PF or C.

But this is where you almost have to crawl into Tommy's head to figure out what he is trying to do... For now, is he happy to have a really solid backcourt of Wall/Ish/Beal/Brown and try to figure the rest out as he goes with the draft and developing our youngsters or...

[nate33]

As a wing defender, he needs to be able to keep folks in front of him. He is a very good defensive rebounder and steals the ball at more than an acceptable rate. Stretch opinion: I think he can become a reasonable wing defender by working on his body, not getting bigger but leaner.

On the offensive end he is a good but not great passer. I don't know how much that will improve. But he doesn't turn the ball over much and I see that continuing to be the case even with greater usage. And he is improving his 3 point shot, but it isn't there yet. Will he ever get to .4xx? Don't know.

Either way, that isn't the prototypical 3&D wing, I think he is suited more to a SG position that handles the ball more. In this line-up that is a backup to Beal.

Or putting it another way, I am not sold that we have a quality starting SF, PF or C.

But this is where you almost have to crawl into Tommy's head to figure out what he is trying to do... For now, is he happy to have a really solid backcourt of Wall/Ish/Beal/Brown and try to figure the rest out as he goes with the draft and developing our youngsters or...

Agreed. I think Troy Brown will ultimately be a 3rd guard type of player, sort of like Evan Turner. He'll probably peak as a 6th man, but not a starter on a good team. That's still not a bad pick at #15 though.

He'll have to become a much better defender to be a quality starter.

I still think Rui has a good chance of becoming a legit, starting-caliber forward. I think his defensive issues are fixable and are improving with experience.

[dckingsfan]

As a wing defender, he needs to be able to keep folks in front of him. He is a very good defensive rebounder and steals the ball at more than an acceptable rate. Stretch opinion: I think he can become a reasonable wing defender by working on his body, not getting bigger but leaner.

On the offensive end he is a good but not great passer. I don't know how much that will improve. But he doesn't turn the ball over much and I see that continuing to be the case even with greater usage. And he is improving his 3 point shot, but it isn't there yet. Will he ever get to .4xx? Don't know.

Either way, that isn't the prototypical 3&D wing, I think he is suited more to a SG position that handles the ball more. In this line-up that is a backup to Beal.

Or putting it another way, I am not sold that we have a quality starting SF, PF or C.

But this is where you almost have to crawl into Tommy's head to figure out what he is trying to do... For now, is he happy to have a really solid backcourt of Wall/Ish/Beal/Brown and try to figure the rest out as he goes with the draft and developing our youngsters or...

Agreed. I think Troy Brown will ultimately be a 3rd guard type of player, sort of like Evan Turner. He'll probably peak as a 6th man, but not a starter on a good team. That's still not a bad pick at #15 though.

He'll have to become a much better defender to be a quality starter.

I still think Rui has a good chance of becoming a legit, starting-caliber forward. I think his defensive issues are fixable and are improving with experience.

I agree with your assessment and prediction on Brown. I guess I don't see that happening with Rui next year - but it could happen...