Hayward is the key to winning Heat/etc, but he must come off the bench

[3D Chess]

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

Health aside, this should really end the debate.

[nic4747]

Where I disagree with you is that the "second unit" doesn't actually exist like this. No one makes 5 in/5 out substitutions. The second unit isn't actually a thing in real games the way we list it out on paper. In actual rotations it's always going to be a mix of starters and bench players. So even without having Hayward off the bench you're still going to accomplish your goal of having one of Hayward/Tatum/Kemba running alongside the bench (left Brown off because I'm not sure he's that type of player even on 2nd unit to really run an offense).

Since it does't really matter in the "second unit" I say start Hayward to maximize the shared time on the court of all our best players.

this is all assuming health of course.

I guess i wasn't really thinking about it in terms of an all or nothing (i.e. 5on5 substitutions) approach. Generally, the more minutes Gordo plays in the starting lineup, the less minutes he's playing in other lineups with less offensive firepower. I guess if he starts and is quickly subbed out it's the same thing.

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

This is only one side of the equation. The offense lost by not having Gordo in the starting lineup doesn't just disappear, in theory it would be re-allocated to a different lineup. Is there a way to compare this data set against a different "bench" lineup to see the differences? For example, what's the data on Wanamaker/Brown/Kanter/GrantW/Smart vs. Wanamaker/Brown/Kanter/GrantW/Hayward? (it doesn't have to be that exact lineup, it can really be any common lineup that isn't the starting lineup)

[MagicBagley18]

He’s not coming back so I don’t think we need to worry ab it...but it’s tough bc he was playing really really good he just can’t stay healthy.

[ConstableGeneva]

Where I disagree with you is that the "second unit" doesn't actually exist like this. No one makes 5 in/5 out substitutions. The second unit isn't actually a thing in real games the way we list it out on paper. In actual rotations it's always going to be a mix of starters and bench players. So even without having Hayward off the bench you're still going to accomplish your goal of having one of Hayward/Tatum/Kemba running alongside the bench (left Brown off because I'm not sure he's that type of player even on 2nd unit to really run an offense).

Since it does't really matter in the "second unit" I say start Hayward to maximize the shared time on the court of all our best players.

this is all assuming health of course.

I guess i wasn't really thinking about it in terms of an all or nothing (i.e. 5on5 substitutions) approach. Generally, the more minutes Gordo plays in the starting lineup, the less minutes he's playing in other lineups with less offensive firepower. I guess if he starts and is quickly subbed out it's the same thing.

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

This is only one side of the equation. The offense lost by not having Gordo in the starting lineup doesn't just disappear, in theory it would be re-allocated to a different lineup. Is there a way to compare this data set against a different "bench" lineup to see the differences? For example, what's the data on Wanamaker/Brown/Kanter/GrantW/Smart vs. Wanamaker/Brown/Kanter/GrantW/Hayward? (it doesn't have to be that exact lineup, it can really be any common lineup that isn't the starting lineup)

Gordo w/o Kemba/Brown/Tatum: 110.2 ORtg (43rd percentile), 91.4 DRtg (100th percentile), +18.8 NRtg (100th percentile)
Smart w/o Kemba/Brown/Tatum: 109.2 ORtg (35th percentile), 95.5 DRtg (100th percentile), +13.7 NRtg (99th percentile)

[Remember that these are small sample sizes. Like if you put Tatum w/ the bench group (more than twice as many possessions as the other two combos above), the numbers don't look as good.]

Anyway, putting Gordo into the second unit didn't do much for our offensive numbers compared to Smart-led second unit. I think the issue there is the guys surrounding Gordo/Smart. You need to have better shooters/scorers and more skilled/experienced players than Semi/Grant/Wanamaker. It's still a team game. Gordo isn't a Lou Williams type who will just get you buckets on his own regardless of whoever he's playing with. He's better served and more effective when there's ball/player movement. He's a system player like Horford but a better scorer.

Ultimately for me, it's more important to win the minutes where you're up against the opponent's best/starting lineups. So why sacrifice the effectiveness of your best/starting group just to win more possessions with the bench group? By the way, our bench had the 6th best net rating in the league. We just did it with our defense (3rd best DRtg). We were no longer losing leads the way we did in past seasons when our bench comes in. Considering all the injuries to our key guys, it's not as bad as people made it out to be.

[nic4747]

Where I disagree with you is that the "second unit" doesn't actually exist like this. No one makes 5 in/5 out substitutions. The second unit isn't actually a thing in real games the way we list it out on paper. In actual rotations it's always going to be a mix of starters and bench players. So even without having Hayward off the bench you're still going to accomplish your goal of having one of Hayward/Tatum/Kemba running alongside the bench (left Brown off because I'm not sure he's that type of player even on 2nd unit to really run an offense).

Since it does't really matter in the "second unit" I say start Hayward to maximize the shared time on the court of all our best players.

this is all assuming health of course.

I guess i wasn't really thinking about it in terms of an all or nothing (i.e. 5on5 substitutions) approach. Generally, the more minutes Gordo plays in the starting lineup, the less minutes he's playing in other lineups with less offensive firepower. I guess if he starts and is quickly subbed out it's the same thing.

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

This is only one side of the equation. The offense lost by not having Gordo in the starting lineup doesn't just disappear, in theory it would be re-allocated to a different lineup. Is there a way to compare this data set against a different "bench" lineup to see the differences? For example, what's the data on Wanamaker/Brown/Kanter/GrantW/Smart vs. Wanamaker/Brown/Kanter/GrantW/Hayward? (it doesn't have to be that exact lineup, it can really be any common lineup that isn't the starting lineup)

Gordo w/o Kemba/Brown/Tatum: 110.2 ORtg (43rd percentile), 91.4 DRtg (100th percentile), +18.8 NRtg (100th percentile)
Smart w/o Kemba/Brown/Tatum: 109.2 ORtg (35th percentile), 95.5 DRtg (100th percentile), +13.7 NRtg (99th percentile)

[Remember that these are small sample sizes. Like if you put Tatum w/ the bench group (more than twice as many possessions as the other two combos above), the numbers don't look as good.]

Anyway, putting Gordo into the second unit didn't do much for our offensive numbers compared to Smart-led second unit. I think the issue there is the guys surrounding Gordo/Smart. You need to have better shooters/scorers and more skilled/experienced players than Semi/Grant/Wanamaker. It's still a team game. Gordo isn't a Lou Williams type who will just get you buckets on his own regardless of whoever he's playing with. He's better served and more effective when there's ball/player movement. He's a system player like Horford but a better scorer.

Ultimately for me, it's more important to win the minutes where you're up against the opponent's best/starting lineups. So why sacrifice the effectiveness of your best/starting group just to win more possessions with the bench group? By the way, our bench had the 6th best net rating in the league. We just did it with our defense (3rd best DRtg). We were no longer losing leads the way we did in past seasons when our bench comes in. Considering all the injuries to our key guys, it's not as bad as people made it out to be.

Wow that’s really intriguing. Small sample issues aside, the data clearly doesn’t support my original point. Our offensive rating barely moved in the Gordo led bench unit. Duly noted, I will change my vote in the poll.

[Jkam31]

When is he supposed to be back

[Feed Your Head]

When is he supposed to be back

Three weeks seems like absolute best case, but I think even that is too optimistic.

Courtesy of someone who knows nothing about the medical field, but I did once stay at a holiday inn express.

[celticfan42487]

When is he supposed to be back

Three weeks seems like absolute best case, but I think even that is too optimistic.

Courtesy of someone who knows nothing about the medical field, but I did once stay at a holiday inn express.

Yeah I think the month diagnosis is beyond best case, and then when you factor in to playoff level instead of just regular season level basketball...

idk I don't think he'd be able to come back before the Finals. And there's a real chance he can't make that timeline either.

That's a full tear of his ankle ligaments... you just... you can only do so much when you are broken. Unless we got some huge breakthrough with HGH in the past couple weeks.

[Ernest]

If we want to discount injuries and make a hypothetical: You are Brad and Hayward is now 100% for game 3 what do you do?

I think you still stick with what has been working. I've thought for a long time that Smart deserves to be starting. We get off to slow starts of games pretty often and Smart is far and away the best guy we have at somehow turning a defensive play into easy points for someone on the other end. It's not really a knock on Hayward. If we want to start Smart we have to not start someone. Brown? Walker? I think it's a long held thing that if you get hurt you lose your spot and must earn it back. If we had but Semi into the starting line up not Smart and still won all these games I'd say stick with what is working too.

[GWVan]

Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Gordo: 116.6 ORtg (92nd percentile), 104.7 DRtg (93rd percentile), +11.9 NRtg (97th percentile)
Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis with Smart: 105.0 ORtg (13th percentile), 100.0 DRtg (99th percentile), +5.0 NRtg (80th percentile)

That's too much of a dropoff in offense to justify the improvement in defense.

And to hugepatsfan's point, we don't use hockey 5-for-5 substitutions. Brad usually pulls out Hayward or Tatum early to bring them back before the 1Q/3Q ends so they can lead the "second unit." So not only do you maximize your starting group this way by getting them more minutes together, you also have someone to make your bench group's offense functional/more potent.

It's the same counter-argument to fans who have suggested that Kemba should come off the bench in favor of Smart.

EDIT: Smaller sample but the current starting lineup w/ Smart is scoring about the same (105.1 pts per 100 possessions) in the playoffs.

Health aside, this should really end the debate.

Yeah, I'm glad I read it before I voted.
A post on the internet has changed my opinion, I need to lie down for a bit now.

[watsonthedragon]

The way the schedule is working out with the east ahead of the west and games every other day may help with getting Hayward back. If we win in 5 and one of the west semis goes 6 or 7 we could have a week or more of rest (assuming they want both conference finals starting at the same time).

[3D Chess]

The way the schedule is working out with the east ahead of the west and games every other day may help with getting Hayward back. If we win in 5 and one of the west semis goes 6 or 7 we could have a week or more of rest (assuming they want both conference finals starting at the same time).

I could be wrong but it seems like they're just going to play every game as soon as it can possibly be played, just trying to get this bubble finished at the earliest date. Start the ECF immediately in case it goes 7 because maybe the WCF goes 4.

[Higgs Boston]

I don't understand how Tatum/Brown/Kemba are worse on the ball when the floor is being spaced by Hayward vs a lesser shooter in Smart, Wanamaker, Semi or Grant.

I don't understand how Tatum/Brown/Kemba are worse off the ball when it's being handled by Hayward vs. a lesser playmaker like Smart, Wanamaker, Semi or Grant.

I understand the idea that you want more of a complimentary skill set around those guys than a primary option threat. But Hayward is better at all of those complimentary skill set things than anyone else we have. He doesn't step on anyone's toes.

This, and with Hayward we can play big small ball like warriors (4 players over 2 m), without him the lineup lacks size and it's just random small ball that will not be a matchup nightmare.

[CelticsPride18]

Offense gets very sloppy when Hayward is injured. That’s the main issue right now.

[LuckyLeprechaun]

The way the schedule is working out with the east ahead of the west and games every other day may help with getting Hayward back. If we win in 5 and one of the west semis goes 6 or 7 we could have a week or more of rest (assuming they want both conference finals starting at the same time).

I could be wrong but it seems like they're just going to play every game as soon as it can possibly be played, just trying to get this bubble finished at the earliest date. Start the ECF immediately in case it goes 7 because maybe the WCF goes 4.

Earliest the WCF can start if every divisional game is a sweep is the 12th. If Lakers-Rockets goes 7, they will start on the 18th.
Earliest the ECF can start if Heat/Cs both sweep is the 8th. If Heat/Bucks goes 7 earliest would be the 14th.

If ECF starts on the 8th and WCF starts on the 18th and they play every other day the whole way through, ECF could be over 4 days before the WCF even starts and at the latest ECF would end during game 2 of the WCF. If the WCF goes 7 after starting on the 18th, they would not be ready to start the finals until Oct 2nd.

Before the players took those couple of days off, the scheduling had Sept 15th as the conference finals start date and Sept 30th as the finals start date.

https://www.nba.com/key-dates

I don't think the ECF will start before the 15th if the Heat and Celtics finish up the series early. If anything, I think the NBA is hoping the West finishes their series out quickly so they don't have to push back the finals start date and possibly end up delaying the draft or having it happen during a game 7.

[keevsnick1]

The way the schedule is working out with the east ahead of the west and games every other day may help with getting Hayward back. If we win in 5 and one of the west semis goes 6 or 7 we could have a week or more of rest (assuming they want both conference finals starting at the same time).

I could be wrong but it seems like they're just going to play every game as soon as it can possibly be played, just trying to get this bubble finished at the earliest date. Start the ECF immediately in case it goes 7 because maybe the WCF goes 4.

Earliest the WCF can start if every divisional game is a sweep is the 12th. If Lakers-Rockets goes 7, they will start on the 18th.
Earliest the ECF can start if Heat/Cs both sweep is the 8th. If Heat/Bucks goes 7 earliest would be the 14th.

If ECF starts on the 8th and WCF starts on the 18th and they play every other day the whole way through, ECF could be over 4 days before the WCF even starts and at the latest ECF would end during game 2 of the WCF. If the WCF goes 7 after starting on the 18th, they would not be ready to start the finals until Oct 2nd.

Before the players took those couple of days off, the scheduling had Sept 15th as the conference finals start date and Sept 30th as the finals start date.

https://www.nba.com/key-dates

I don't think the ECF will start before the 15th if the Heat and Celtics finish up the series early. If anything, I think the NBA is hoping the West finishes their series out quickly so they don't have to push back the finals start date and possibly end up delaying the draft or having it happen during a game 7.

If the ECF does start on lets say the 15, that would be just 4 weeks+1 day after Hayward's injury. I know the C's gave a 4 week timetable but if what he has truly is a grade 3 sprain I find 4 weeks highly questionable. There just isn't a history of guys with grade 3 sprains returning that quickly, and unlike his hand break he came back from early this year an ankle injury effects everything you do on the court. To me its more likely he's out through the ECF finals with a chance at returning for the finals (if the c's make it).

Of course this may just be me lowering my own expectations.

To answer the actual question tho if Hayward is healthy and good to go he starts, we are simply a better team when he does. Smart has been big these last two TOR games (and the first PHI game) but hes perfectly capable of going 1-8 for 3 points and killing your offense in stretches. But really it doesn't matter that much, both guys would get mid thirties minutes at least.

[yazfan]

We need Hayward's wife to have the baby so he can double dip injury/dad stuff.

I think he needs 1-2 games off the bench to get going. IF he starts, just facilitate (which sometimes he does anyway when healthy)

IDK, I have a feeling he wont be back...

[3D Chess]

They said during game 3 that he's coming back to the bubble this weekend.

[djFan71]

They said during game 3 that he's coming back to the bubble this weekend.

Yeah, I caught that too. But couldn't find anything official on it.

[ConstableGeneva]

They said during game 3 that he's coming back to the bubble this weekend.

Yeah, I caught that too. But couldn't find anything official on it.

They say all kinds of silly things on the national broadcast.

They did also say there's no way Hayward is playing in the Raptors series.

Anyway, it would be weird if he enters the bubble soon only to leave again for his son's birth. Unless Robyn's already given birth. Information of which I am not privy to.