2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th!

[Portiseyes]

Vassell seems low ceiling as hell. Seems like he'll top out as a 4th/5th scoring option. And he can't pass/handle at all either.

I don't know where you are getting that he can't handle or pass.

Take a look at the following, and places such as 0:17, 0:42, 1:24, 2:18, 3:36, 3:54, 5:08, 5:58 (cdown court pass off steal) etc.

Watch on YouTube

Not that he's some sort of elite ball handler or passer at this point - he's not - but to say that he "can't pass or handle at all" is such a ridiculous exaggeration. He has a solid handle, a little too high, but no reason to think it can't continue to improve. Less than one turnover per game (1.1 per 40) ... He shows vision at times as well despite only averaging 1.6 assists per game (2.3 per 40) - and he had the 2nd highest amount of assists on the team so there may be scheme issues on those numbers.

Bottom line on Vassell is that his floor is very high - something like Shane Battier high given the basketball IQ he shows - and while he doesn't have ultra-megastar athleticism like a Lebron James, he's no less athletic than a Jayson Tatum.

Tatum, in fact, may be a very good comp. Now, Taytum came out as a freshman with higher volume scoring (though only 3 points more per 40 minutes), higher rebounding (1.8 more per 40 minutes), but similar assist / block /steal numbers, nearly triple the TOs per 40 (3.1 vs. 1.1) and lesser shooting percentages, particularly from 3 (reflected in a .585 TS and 23.8 per for Vassell vs. .566 TS and 22.0 per for Taytum) - and Tatum was 19 when drafted as opposed to Vassell who will be 20... but they are not that different in terms of prospect levels. Taytum was better because younger and more proven ability re volume... but otherwise remarkably similar, with some advantages to Vassell.

I would not be disappointed if the Bulls drafted him. Would have been nicer at 7 or 8 "value wise" - but it's not like anyone is a sure thing in this draft.

Ok passing, sees the game pretty well, but allergic to contact with the ball in his hand... quite poor handle in the half court, and probably also a strength issue. Developing a Deng level handle would be a good outcome, and if he could take rock to the hole like Deng, you take him at 4 no question. Still he is a potentially elite 3 and D, so I think he has value, definitely at 7 or 8.

But athletically he is pretty pedestrian, is a two footed jumper. In my eyes, someone like Hayes is a significantly better athlete.

[BullsFTW]

According to this interesting BR "Bust Players" Article, the Bulls should not draft Toppin (too old) and Avdija (master of no bankable skill)

Looks like the Top 4 players for the Bulls should be Edwards, Ball, Hayes & probably Wiseman.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2907034-how-to-spot-an-nba-draft-bust

Interesting article

Yeah, although I don't know about lumping Deni and Okoro with the busts they mentioned. These guys have many more proven skills than Bender, MKG, Hezonja, Bennett and in general a seemingly much better BBIQ and awareness. The busts were drafted almost entirely on raw potential and athleticism/size, which has traditionally been a common mistake in the top-5 (Tyrus, Swift, Darko, Thabeet, etc.). I can see Patrick Williams and Hampton in that category, although they'd be very reasonable gambles in the 10-20 range. I think those super-projects can pan out very well as mid-1st picks; you just need to look at them as 3-5 year plans. But realistically, they're either out the league or decent reserves: Derrick Jones Jr, Harkless, James Johnson, etc. I'd say elite handles, good awareness and a proper shooting form should be encouraging to build an athletic player. If the handle's broken and there's bad off-ball awareness, then I don't even see the point.

I agree with Deni and Okoro, but this is also why I like Hayes for the Bulls. A playmaker who is skilled and has a high IQ.

[cjbulls]

I'm starting to wonder if trading up for Edwards might actually be a steal. The guy easily has the best tools of anyone in the draft. His tape is head and shoulders above everyone else's. He's really just not being considered much of a #1 prospect because his stats were not very good.

But if you think you can develop those tools of his and that being on an NBA team instead of some awful college team can maximize that talent…you might be committing robbery if all you're giving up is some low ceiling picks/players in return.

Not against the move, but you probably need to move Zach or Coby (likely Zach). Prepared to take less than his fair value?

You are unlikely to get a strong offer. I think you make value on taking Edwards but lose some of it on moving Zach. Not a horrible deal for a team that wants stars but something to consider nevertheless.

You don't need to move a player to move up to #1. You just have to give up next years first round pick.

With what protections? I assume you’re giving #4, so Edwards isn’t worth giving up next years FRP unless you’re lottery or, at a minimum, top 10 protecting it.

[MGB8]

Bottom line on Vassell is that his floor is very high - something like Shane Battier high given the basketball IQ he shows - and while he doesn't have ultra-megastar athleticism like a Lebron James, he's no less athletic than a Jayson Tatum.

Tatum, in fact, may be a very good comp. Now, Taytum came out as a freshman with higher volume scoring (though only 3 points more per 40 minutes), higher rebounding (1.8 more per 40 minutes), but similar assist / block /steal numbers, nearly triple the TOs per 40 (3.1 vs. 1.1) and lesser shooting percentages, particularly from 3 (reflected in a .585 TS and 23.8 per for Vassell vs. .566 TS and 22.0 per for Taytum) - and Tatum was 19 when drafted as opposed to Vassell who will be 20... but they are not that different in terms of prospect levels. Taytum was better because younger and more proven ability re volume... but otherwise remarkably similar, with some advantages to Vassell.

I saw nothing even remotely, let alone remarkably, similar to this kind of skill in that video.

Watch on YouTube

Now I'm all for drafting raw talents who have unspectacular stats but show great flashes on tape, but Vassell's tape doesn't exactly scream high ceiling. Of course he can pull a Jimmy Butler and just wildly exceed expectations but that's utterly unpredictable and not something one should ever bank on.

He looks sort of like the Wendell Carter of wings. Which is not actually a bad thing at all. He'll probably have a long career. But I'd be looking for something more high ceiling.

You are comparing Tatum the NBA player, not Tatum the prospect out of Duke. The more direct comps are Mikal Bridges and DeAndre Hunter, but he isn’t statistically far off from Tatum at Duke - more efficient, somewhat less volume. The notion that his handle can’t develop an extra step or two, or that he can’t get stronger, is IMO nonsense. Not that it is guaranteed, but it wouldn’t be particularly surprising.

And, actually, there are couple spots in that vid where Vassel does something similar with a dribble to create space for a shot. That wasn’t all that special by Tatum, he even looked down at the ball on the crossover.

[MGB8]

Vassell seems low ceiling as hell. Seems like he'll top out as a 4th/5th scoring option. And he can't pass/handle at all either.

I don't know where you are getting that he can't handle or pass.

Take a look at the following, and places such as 0:17, 0:42, 1:24, 2:18, 3:36, 3:54, 5:08, 5:58 (cdown court pass off steal) etc.

Watch on YouTube

Not that he's some sort of elite ball handler or passer at this point - he's not - but to say that he "can't pass or handle at all" is such a ridiculous exaggeration. He has a solid handle, a little too high, but no reason to think it can't continue to improve. Less than one turnover per game (1.1 per 40) ... He shows vision at times as well despite only averaging 1.6 assists per game (2.3 per 40) - and he had the 2nd highest amount of assists on the team so there may be scheme issues on those numbers.

Bottom line on Vassell is that his floor is very high - something like Shane Battier high given the basketball IQ he shows - and while he doesn't have ultra-megastar athleticism like a Lebron James, he's no less athletic than a Jayson Tatum.

Tatum, in fact, may be a very good comp. Now, Taytum came out as a freshman with higher volume scoring (though only 3 points more per 40 minutes), higher rebounding (1.8 more per 40 minutes), but similar assist / block /steal numbers, nearly triple the TOs per 40 (3.1 vs. 1.1) and lesser shooting percentages, particularly from 3 (reflected in a .585 TS and 23.8 per for Vassell vs. .566 TS and 22.0 per for Taytum) - and Tatum was 19 when drafted as opposed to Vassell who will be 20... but they are not that different in terms of prospect levels. Taytum was better because younger and more proven ability re volume... but otherwise remarkably similar, with some advantages to Vassell.

I would not be disappointed if the Bulls drafted him. Would have been nicer at 7 or 8 "value wise" - but it's not like anyone is a sure thing in this draft.

Ok passing, sees the game pretty well, but allergic to contact with the ball in his hand... quite poor handle in the half court, and probably also a strength issue. Developing a Deng level handle would be a good outcome, and if he could take rock to the hole like Deng, you take him at 4 no question. Still he is a potentially elite 3 and D, so I think he has value, definitely at 7 or 8.

But athletically he is pretty pedestrian, is a two footed jumper. In my eyes, someone like Hayes is a significantly better athlete.

Yeah, I think you are nuts or just spouting garbage. His handle is already better than Deng’s ever was after years in the NBA. Fine in the half court, just not elite, as you see him drive in traffic, not lose the ball while being pressured by one or two defenders, take guys off the dribble from the outside, etc. No sign that he is “allergic to contact” as there is plenty of film of him taking it inside - but he does not barrel in to create contact like many NBA players do to take advantage of offense-favoring officiating - more finesse. Can jump off of both one or two feet.

His weaknesses are his current lack of strength - particularly to finish, lack of an explosive first step to go “downhill,” and a middling handle (but better than even Bridges’ was when he got drafted). Those are real deficiencies. But they are all things that it wouldn’t be shocking if he improved on them, particularly strength and handle (which already isn’t bad, just not high level).

[Leslie Forman]

You are comparing Tatum the NBA player, not Tatum the prospect out of Duke.

Tatum was younger in that video than Vassell is right now.

The more direct comps are Mikal Bridges and DeAndre Hunter, but he isn’t statistically far off from Tatum at Duke - more efficient, somewhat less volume.

Yeah, and he's statistically similar to PJ Hairston, too. A little worse, actually.

Look at the tape, not the stats. This guy is absolutely nothing like Tatum. Even if he pans out it's gonna be as a different kind of player.

[MrFortune3]

Minnesota is not going to like what would be offer for the #1 pick, so it's probably in their best interests to keep the pick. I think most of us agree, getting the #1 pick in this draft does not feel like a "win".

It's not so much that. KAT is your franchise player no matter who you take #1. That guy might surpass Russell as the #1A but it's still KAT team.

I get what you are saying and I don't disagree but given how umimpressive this draft is, the value of the #1 pick is not going to be high.

They could snag a very good player with the #1 pick. But their needs from a roster balance and position standpoint lessen who they could land and have it improve their team.
They need a 4 who can play great D to help cover for KAT, someone who can also stretch the floor and provide spacing. Not many of those on the market, even for the #1 in any draft year.

[MGB8]

You are comparing Tatum the NBA player, not Tatum the prospect out of Duke.

Tatum was younger in that video than Vassell is right now.

The more direct comps are Mikal Bridges and DeAndre Hunter, but he isn’t statistically far off from Tatum at Duke - more efficient, somewhat less volume.

Yeah, and he's statistically similar to PJ Hairston, too. A little worse, actually.

Look at the tape, not the stats. This guy is absolutely nothing like Tatum. Even if he pans out it's gonna be as a different kind of player.

I disagree. If Vassell doesn’t improve his strength and handle, then, yeah, not comparable. But he has a frame that, while thin, doesn’t seem like he couldn’t get stronger, and his handle is good enough right now to suggest that there is still room for growth. If those two things happen, he is physically, athletically, BBall IQ wise, and skillset wise similar to Tatum. That is the high end scenario - not a guarantee because it requires meaningful growth - but not that far fetched in terms of amount of development. Biggest question is does Vassell have enough “alpha dog” in him... which is impossible to answer without knowing the young man.

[Jcool0]

Not against the move, but you probably need to move Zach or Coby (likely Zach). Prepared to take less than his fair value?

You are unlikely to get a strong offer. I think you make value on taking Edwards but lose some of it on moving Zach. Not a horrible deal for a team that wants stars but something to consider nevertheless.

You don't need to move a player to move up to #1. You just have to give up next years first round pick.

With what protections? I assume you’re giving #4, so Edwards isn’t worth giving up next years FRP unless you’re lottery or, at a minimum, top 10 protecting it.

You do what Dallas did. Top-five protected the next two years, top-three protected in 2021 and '22 and unprotected the following year

[cjbulls]

You don't need to move a player to move up to #1. You just have to give up next years first round pick.

With what protections? I assume you’re giving #4, so Edwards isn’t worth giving up next years FRP unless you’re lottery or, at a minimum, top 10 protecting it.

You do what Dallas did. Top-five protected the next two years, top-three protected in 2021 and '22 and unprotected the following year

Doesn’t seem worth it. The Bulls will be a below .500 team next year most likely and it sounds like #6-8 will be better than #1 this year

[MrFortune3]

With what protections? I assume you’re giving #4, so Edwards isn’t worth giving up next years FRP unless you’re lottery or, at a minimum, top 10 protecting it.

You do what Dallas did. Top-five protected the next two years, top-three protected in 2021 and '22 and unprotected the following year

Doesn’t seem worth it. The Bulls will be a below .500 team next year most likely and it sounds like #6-8 will be better than #1 this year

It's essentially the Luka trade. #5 and a top 5 protected pick the next year. Just depends on how you feel about the player and if they want to move down. Or the Fultz trade, #1 for #3 and a top 1 protected pick the next year.

[cjbulls]

You do what Dallas did. Top-five protected the next two years, top-three protected in 2021 and '22 and unprotected the following year

Doesn’t seem worth it. The Bulls will be a below .500 team next year most likely and it sounds like #6-8 will be better than #1 this year

It's essentially the Luka trade. #5 and a top 5 protected pick the next year. Just depends on how you feel about the player and if they want to move down. Or the Fultz trade, #1 for #3 and a top 1 protected pick the next year.

A luka trade for a non-luka level player. Edwards is the best prospect in a bad batch. Last year he goes #5 to Cavs at best.

As a prospect, Luka was #1 worthy depending on your scouting department.

[Jcool0]

Doesn’t seem worth it. The Bulls will be a below .500 team next year most likely and it sounds like #6-8 will be better than #1 this year

It's essentially the Luka trade. #5 and a top 5 protected pick the next year. Just depends on how you feel about the player and if they want to move down. Or the Fultz trade, #1 for #3 and a top 1 protected pick the next year.

A luka trade for a non-luka level player. Edwards is the best prospect in a bad batch. Last year he goes #5 to Cavs at best.

As a prospect, Luka was #1 worthy depending on your scouting department.

De'Andre Hunter is not a better prospect.

[MrFortune3]

Doesn’t seem worth it. The Bulls will be a below .500 team next year most likely and it sounds like #6-8 will be better than #1 this year

It's essentially the Luka trade. #5 and a top 5 protected pick the next year. Just depends on how you feel about the player and if they want to move down. Or the Fultz trade, #1 for #3 and a top 1 protected pick the next year.

A luka trade for a non-luka level player. Edwards is the best prospect in a bad batch. Last year he goes #5 to Cavs at best.

As a prospect, Luka was #1 worthy depending on your scouting department.

The #1 OA pick is going to require at least a future #1 top 5 pick and a the Wolves are likely looking for an immediate impact guy more so than more picks.

[cjbulls]

It's essentially the Luka trade. #5 and a top 5 protected pick the next year. Just depends on how you feel about the player and if they want to move down. Or the Fultz trade, #1 for #3 and a top 1 protected pick the next year.

A luka trade for a non-luka level player. Edwards is the best prospect in a bad batch. Last year he goes #5 to Cavs at best.

As a prospect, Luka was #1 worthy depending on your scouting department.

De'Andre Hunter is not a better prospect.

I didn’t say he was. Just said that’s where he would have gone. ATL traded up specifically because they wanted a 3&d forward. They wouldn’t have taken Edwards.

[cjbulls]

It's essentially the Luka trade. #5 and a top 5 protected pick the next year. Just depends on how you feel about the player and if they want to move down. Or the Fultz trade, #1 for #3 and a top 1 protected pick the next year.

A luka trade for a non-luka level player. Edwards is the best prospect in a bad batch. Last year he goes #5 to Cavs at best.

As a prospect, Luka was #1 worthy depending on your scouting department.

The #1 OA pick is going to require at least a future #1 top 5 pick and a the Wolves are likely looking for an immediate impact guy more so than more picks.

Im not disagreeing with you, but that’s the problem Minn and GS will face. They’ll be saying, we have #1/2 pick, those are worth X. But a team doesn’t trade for a pick number, they trade for a player available at that pick. Edwards is the top prospect but not the value of a true #1 pick. Makes it hard to find a workable deal.

Bulls should stay away unless the teams at the top recognize this isn’t a great year and you can probably get a similar value prospect at #4, especially if you’re turned off by Edwards negatives.

[Jcool0]

A luka trade for a non-luka level player. Edwards is the best prospect in a bad batch. Last year he goes #5 to Cavs at best.

As a prospect, Luka was #1 worthy depending on your scouting department.

De'Andre Hunter is not a better prospect.

I didn’t say he was. Just said that’s where he would have gone. ATL traded up specifically because they wanted a 3&d forward. They wouldn’t have taken Edwards.

There was also a drop off after #3. If Edwards was in that draft the drop off would of been after #4. Even a chance he goes before Barrett.

[cjbulls]

De'Andre Hunter is not a better prospect.

I didn’t say he was. Just said that’s where he would have gone. ATL traded up specifically because they wanted a 3&d forward. They wouldn’t have taken Edwards.

There was also a drop off after #3. If Edwards was in that draft the drop off would of been after #4. Even a chance he goes before Barrett.

Zero chance. I agree he’d be grouped into that 3rd tier after the top 3 with about 5 other guys.

Barrett was a higher level HS prospect who produced better points, reb, assist, fg%, 3% in the ACC as opposed to Edwards in the SEC, and that’s before factoring in the intangible benefits of Barrett over Edwards (Attitude, work ethic, etc).

Barrett despite his struggles was first team all America. Edwards didn’t make any all America team. He didn’t even make first team all SEC

[MrFortune3]

A luka trade for a non-luka level player. Edwards is the best prospect in a bad batch. Last year he goes #5 to Cavs at best.

As a prospect, Luka was #1 worthy depending on your scouting department.

The #1 OA pick is going to require at least a future #1 top 5 pick and a the Wolves are likely looking for an immediate impact guy more so than more picks.

Im not disagreeing with you, but that’s the problem Minn and GS will face. They’ll be saying, we have #1/2 pick, those are worth X. But a team doesn’t trade for a pick number, they trade for a player available at that pick. Edwards is the top prospect but not the value of a true #1 pick. Makes it hard to find a workable deal.

Bulls should stay away unless the teams at the top recognize this isn’t a great year and you can probably get a similar value prospect at #4, especially if you’re turned off by Edwards negatives.

Could be but the issue I think will be who is available vs the need of who they want.

[PlayerUp]

While I prefer to trade down, I would consider doing a Top 14 Protected 2021 Pick, Top 14 Protected 2022 Pick, Top 10 Protected 2023 Pick, 2024 Pick Conveys Into A 2nd Rd Pick to move up along with the #4 for #1. That of course depends on how much Edwards/Ball have improved over the course of the last several months.

It's really not worth it to move up in this draft. The draft looks fairly deep. I would look to target 2 picks instead 1, double our chances at getting a hidden gem in the draft.