CJ McCollum's value

[Village Idiot]

CJ McCollum is unquestionably the most controversial player on the Trailblazers. I imagine that I speak for others here in stating that I have very mixed emotions on CJ and whether he should continue to be a Blazer.

We often scapegoat him, perhaps unfairly at times. There is no question that defense against SGs isn't great and his skill-set duplicates Damians.

He is a fantastic offensive player, he can create for himself or others. He can score at all three levels. He is also one of the best catch and shoot 3 point shooters in the NBA. When Damian went full egomode against the Nuggets last year and was jacking up crazy shots and complaining about not getting calls, CJ put the team on his shoulders and lead us to a series win.

This year and last, CJ excelled as starting PG when Lillard was out. He's averaged something like 30-8 on good percentages. His 36 point, 7 assist game 5 against the Lakers is but the latest example.

On the T+T board we often see CJ disparaged and put in the same category as Al Horford or Tobias Harris. Decent, but not great and highly overpaid.

Looking around on the general board and team boards I see a very clear trend. There is a desperate need for guys who can create for themselves and other and hit the open 3. Orlando and Philly have recognized this for a while but know we see Milwaukee and Toronto fans lamenting not having a guy to whom you can give the ball and create points. That's the kind of ability that is difficult to quantify. Maybe one of you can help?

Is CJ worth more than we as realgm fans collectively assign to him? Does the league see things differently than we as fans do? Clearly Olshey and Stotts do or he would have been traded a couple of years ago. He and Damian Lillard are very close and that is always going to be a factor in any conversation about his role and future.

I also wonder if CJ has come to a point in his career where he might feel he should try to be the alpha guard on a team and stop being Robin to Damian? Surely he must be tired of fans' criticism, especially if he feels it is unfair and that he is only playing his role.

[JRoy]

CJ is a controversial player. Everyone loves his ability to get (and hit) tough shots in tight games.

The problem is fit; poor defense, huge contract and now age make it difficult to find a trade partner willing to send what POR needs.

I’ll miss him when he’s gone (assuming that’s ever happens) but we may very well be a better team

[BlazersBroncos]

I tend to think CJ has more value league wide than this board projects, that being said I also dont see any good deals for him out there.

IMO the main pieces that could realistically be moved for an improvement are Ariza, Hood, Simons, picks and potentially Zach. I dont think we move on from Little after a single season, NO protects his former 1st round picks like a mother grizzly.

[PDXKnight]

I tend to think CJ has more value league wide than this board projects, that being said I also dont see any good deals for him out there.

IMO the main pieces that could realistically be moved for an improvement are Ariza, Hood, Simons, picks and potentially Zach. I dont think we move on from Little after a single season, NO protects his former 1st round picks like a mother grizzly.

Yeah It’s way too early to move on from nas. I doubt his value is super high outside of Portland given his first season didn’t feature many mins for him and his upside is solid imo

[wco81]

He's an underdog, coming from a small school, undersized, having to work to be effective compared to players who have size and better athletic ability.

He's a good dude too, so a credit to any franchise.

He probably gets one on one coverage since Lillard usually draws the best defenders.

There are always teams out there which need backcourt scoring. But with that big contract, it could be tough.

People have mentioned Orlando, maybe Philly. But another team which just needs scoring and help for their main scorer could be Utah. Their Conley experiment didn't work out, they will probably be glad to free up his $30 million.

But everyone wants wings who can shoot it a little. They might not be as skilled as CJ but they have the size and ability to defend more positions.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Thanks for posting this thread. It's the one player-personnel question that needs an answer. If he stays, other players must be built around what CJ does and does not do. Rodney Hood and GTJ seem like good fits. Collins if he's healthy. Nurkic.

Lillard + CJ on D? Taking turns on O. A different backup at PG (Simons)? SF and PF haven't produced enough O or strong enough D consistently. Yeah, it's a tough one.

[GEE]

Lou Williams. JK, but CJ is best suited as a 6th man on the Blazers, if they want to win. Starting at him at SG leaves us unbalanced, with too much O and crappy on D. Problem obviously is that now he's getting payed like a upper level SG in the NBA, which causes us, while paired with Dame, to suck on D.

If he went to the right team like ORL, and became the Alpha dog / PG, then his salary, and defense would not be an issue at all.

What other team could use a scoring PG like CJ, and do they have what we'd want in a trade? Who else besides the Sixers might want to make a power move?

[Matt800]

I think the trouble with trading CJ is finding someone who's actually more valuable. Like if it were CJ for Anthony Davis, sure.

CJ has some less talked about aspects that are valuable too, like his openness to staying in Portland long term, and his general resiliency to injury. If he's traded for someone who will be hurt more often, or who will leave in a year, that might not be worth it.

But if they could get at least 2-3 years of Davis for CJ that could be enough for a championship.

Lillard/Simons
Hood/Trent Jr
Ariza/Little
Davis/Melo
Nurkic/Collins

Add a few free agents and that's a solid team. And that starting lineup would actually be good at defense, even better if Trent Jr is in and keeps improving.

but to answer the thread question, his trade value is probably lower than his value to portland. So he's probably not getting traded.

[dunlop212]

I would like to see something like the Crash for Lillard heist. Phoenix is apparently shopping its pick, and has some financial leeway.

[Wizenheimer]

He is a fantastic offensive player, he can create for himself or others. He can score at all three levels. He is also one of the best catch and shoot 3 point shooters in the NBA. When Damian went full egomode against the Nuggets last year and was jacking up crazy shots and complaining about not getting calls, CJ put the team on his shoulders and lead us to a series win.

that's not accurate in my view, or at least it ignores some important context

the MVP of that Denver series was Rodney Hood. He was the one who hit the biggest shots. Everybody talks about CJ scoring 41 points in that 4 OT game; what they don't talk about is that CJ had to take 39 shots to score those 41 points. That's lower efficiency than the rest of the Blazers posted. CJ did have a great game 7, but he did it against single coverage against a weak defender, as always, while the Nuggets 'stubbornly' put their best defenders on Dame, while trapping him constantly in the PnR. In that series, CJ had a TS% of .530; Dame's mark was .528. Yeah, such a gap. And, there wouldn't have been a game 7 if not for Dame, Hood, and Kanter

and if CJ was so great, why didn't he lead the Blazers to at least 1 win in the next series against Golden State? The Warriors did what they always do against Portland: double and trap Dame at every opportunity, using defensive one-on-one length and mobile bigs for traps. That left CJ in single coverage against weak defenders like Curry. Yet, Dame had a TS% of .546 while CJ posted .481

and that's Portland's problem and it's a big reason why Portland now has a 4-28 record in the playoffs under Stotts and Olshey in close-out playoff series. Portland has only been a pretender for 7 straight years now, and they wilt when they have to go against a real contender....or a team like the Pelicans. CJ is a part of that because he simply doesn't have the talent to take the pressure of Dame when good defenses have the time to work on a 'stop-Dame-at-all-cost' game plan. Those defenses would fail if Portland had a ball-handling wing the level of Kawhi, or PG13, or Butler, or Tatum, or even a Siakam. But Portland doesn't have one of those because Olshey over-values CJ to a ridiculous level, making him untouchable in trade discussions while making sure CJ is option 1b on the team

and yeah, in a way, that's unfair to CJ because in a sense it's 'blaming' him for not being much more talented and much taller. But in a another very real way, it is fair because Olshey has put CJ in the role of being that superstar because of contracts and opportunity
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I don't believe CJ is as good as you are claiming, and I'm convinced the rest of the NBA thinks the same. I'll start giving CJ more credit when I start seeing opposing defenses game-planning to stop CJ. In 7 years, I haven't seen that happen once; not once. But I've seen it happen to Dame hundreds of times.

that's the value gauge NBA coaches are assigning CJ and I suspect NBA GM's would use the same gauge. If so, a lot of the trade ideas for CJ I see are significantly overrating him, and his contract isn't helping
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by the way, I agree CJ is very good at catch-and-shoot. Unfortunately, he does that way too infrequently. He does a lot of isolation, but he's only in the 56th percentile in isolation scoring efficiency. 44% of the league is better. 36% of CJ's opportunities are as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, but he's only in the 71st percentile. 52% of Dame's opportunities are as PnR ball-handler and he's in the 95th percentile.

CJ uses most of his possessions while dribbling, and he's simply not that good at it. A big reason is he doesn't get to the foul line. But this isn't really his fault. It's the fault of the coaches for not utilizing CJ properly; and it's the fault of management for not having a better, more complementary roster
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as many have mentioned over the years, CJ seems best suited for a 6th man role; a scorer off the bench like Lou Williams. And if you compare CJ and Williams this season, Williams is better in PER, TS%, Assist%, winshare/48, and BoxPM. Yet, this season and next, Williams is making 16 million; CJ is making 57 million. 8M/year vs 28M/year.

what I'm seeing in the payoffs over the last decade or two is that contenders have all-NBA level two-way talent at the wing. Guys in the 6'6-6'10 range who can play outside-in on offense while defending 4 positions on the the other end. The Lakers had that when they were winning titles and they have that now. The Spurs had it when they won 5 championships. Miami had it when they won two. The Warriors had it when they won 3. Toronto had it when they won last season. This season, Boston and Miami have it, so do the Bucks. So do the Clippers.

that's what makes teams contenders, and that's exactly what Portland doesn't have. And that's why they are on their own treadmill. Sure, it's a higher level treadmill that lottery teams, but it's still a treadmill parked in a cul-de-sac. There's no room for an elite wing when CJ is hogging so much opportunity and so much salary cap
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I've given up on Portland being a contender in the Dame era. It will never happen with Olshey as GM and Stotts as coach. And yeah, I know, blahblahblah Dame likes CJ and Dame likes Stotts. But Dame isn't the GM and he isn't the coach. But Dame is the reason that Olshey and Stotts have been in their jobs for 8 years even though every one of those 8 years the team ultimately fails in thudding fashion. Both of those guys keep collecting their multi-million dollar salaries while Dame's prime burns away

I still remember the 2015 playoffs. Portland had just been crushed by Memphis and all Olshey could talk about was how well CJ had played "I told you Terry, I told you". What an ass. But that's how he has managed the team. He has his favorites who he overrates ridiculously, and invests way too much ego into. CJ and Meyers; now, it appears it's Zach and Simons. His guys, and he's forced Portland to depend on them to fill roles they can't fill. And that includes CJ
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sorry for the rant, but it's less than a week since another embarrassing playoff failure for Portland. And this time, the salt in the wound was that it was against the damn Lakers.

[monopoman]

I think the best thing to do is try to use CJ in a trade for a better player, now you don't get these trades every day but they do happen.

No one would think DeMar DeRozan was as good as Kawhi but that was the basis for that trade. All we need is a case of a disgruntled star where he doesn't list Portland as a destination. It seems into today's NBA the teams that the player actually wants to go to just shrug their shoulders and say they will sign him later. So teams like Portland have more power in that scenario since the team doesn't want to lose their player for nothing in a year or two.

We also can toss in a bit more value if needed the bulk of the salary might be CJ for insert star level player but we can add in a pick or two or some young talent also. If we want to have a realistic shot at a championship during Lillard's prime we need to look at this in the next year or two ideally. This is an all-in move and it might blow up in our faces, but if it works out we bring a championship to a team that hasn't had one for over 40 years.

[B0naf1d3]

Ben Simmons name gets thrown out a lot. You would have to add quite a bit of value i'd imagine. It addresses the defensive issues the Blazers have, and allows Lillard to play more off ball. He is under contract for the next 5 years (big win) and raises Portlands ceiling IMO.

CJ + Little + Collins + 20 FRP + FFRP

It's at least an offer the Sixers would have to consider. Would help them play a more half court style suited to Embid. I don't like many trades involving CJ, but I put Simmons in the group of players I would realistically consider like Butler, and George in the past. Of course Kawhi would have been nice but there was 0% chance he would stay in Portland.

I'm fine holding onto CJ until the perfect trade becomes available, which is why a trade is unlikely.

[GEE]

He is a fantastic offensive player, he can create for himself or others. He can score at all three levels. He is also one of the best catch and shoot 3 point shooters in the NBA. When Damian went full egomode against the Nuggets last year and was jacking up crazy shots and complaining about not getting calls, CJ put the team on his shoulders and lead us to a series win.

that's not accurate in my view, or at least it ignores some important context

the MVP of that Denver series was Rodney Hood. He was the one who hit the biggest shots. Everybody talks about CJ scoring 41 points in that 4 OT game; what they don't talk about is that CJ had to take 39 shots to score those 41 points. That's lower efficiency than the rest of the Blazers posted. CJ did have a great game 7, but he did it against single coverage against a weak defender, as always, while the Nuggets 'stubbornly' put their best defenders on Dame, while trapping him constantly in the PnR. In that series, CJ had a TS% of .530; Dame's mark was .528. Yeah, such a gap. And, there wouldn't have been a game 7 if not for Dame, Hood, and Kanter

and if CJ was so great, why didn't he lead the Blazers to at least 1 win in the next series against Golden State? The Warriors did what they always do against Portland: double and trap Dame at every opportunity, using defensive one-on-one length and mobile bigs for traps. That left CJ in single coverage against weak defenders like Curry. Yet, Dame had a TS% of .546 while CJ posted .481

and that's Portland's problem and it's a big reason why Portland now has a 4-28 record in the playoffs under Stotts and Olshey in close-out playoff series. Portland has only been a pretender for 7 straight years now, and they wilt when they have to go against a real contender....or a team like the Pelicans. CJ is a part of that because he simply doesn't have the talent to take the pressure of Dame when good defenses have the time to work on a 'stop-Dame-at-all-cost' game plan. Those defenses would fail if Portland had a ball-handling wing the level of Kawhi, or PG13, or Butler, or Tatum, or even a Siakam. But Portland doesn't have one of those because Olshey over-values CJ to a ridiculous level, making him untouchable in trade discussions while making sure CJ is option 1b on the team

and yeah, in a way, that's unfair to CJ because in a sense it's 'blaming' him for not being much more talented and much taller. But in a another very real way, it is fair because Olshey has put CJ in the role of being that superstar because of contracts and opportunity
*******************************************************************************

I don't believe CJ is as good as you are claiming, and I'm convinced the rest of the NBA thinks the same. I'll start giving CJ more credit when I start seeing opposing defenses game-planning to stop CJ. In 7 years, I haven't seen that happen once; not once. But I've seen it happen to Dame hundreds of times.

that's the value gauge NBA coaches are assigning CJ and I suspect NBA GM's would use the same gauge. If so, a lot of the trade ideas for CJ I see are significantly overrating him, and his contract isn't helping
**********************************************************************************

by the way, I agree CJ is very good at catch-and-shoot. Unfortunately, he does that way too infrequently. He does a lot of isolation, but he's only in the 56th percentile in isolation scoring efficiency. 44% of the league is better. 36% of CJ's opportunities are as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, but he's only in the 71st percentile. 52% of Dame's opportunities are as PnR ball-handler and he's in the 95th percentile.

CJ uses most of his possessions while dribbling, and he's simply not that good at it. A big reason is he doesn't get to the foul line. But this isn't really his fault. It's the fault of the coaches for not utilizing CJ properly; and it's the fault of management for not having a better, more complementary roster
***********************************************************************************

as many have mentioned over the years, CJ seems best suited for a 6th man role; a scorer off the bench like Lou Williams. And if you compare CJ and Williams this season, Williams is better in PER, TS%, Assist%, winshare/48, and BoxPM. Yet, this season and next, Williams is making 16 million; CJ is making 57 million. 8M/year vs 28M/year.

what I'm seeing in the payoffs over the last decade or two is that contenders have all-NBA level two-way talent at the wing. Guys in the 6'6-6'10 range who can play outside-in on offense while defending 4 positions on the the other end. The Lakers had that when they were winning titles and they have that now. The Spurs had it when they won 5 championships. Miami had it when they won two. The Warriors had it when they won 3. Toronto had it when they won last season. This season, Boston and Miami have it, so do the Bucks. So do the Clippers.

that's what makes teams contenders, and that's exactly what Portland doesn't have. And that's why they are on their own treadmill. Sure, it's a higher level treadmill that lottery teams, but it's still a treadmill parked in a cul-de-sac. There's no room for an elite wing when CJ is hogging so much opportunity and so much salary cap
************************************************************************************

I've given up on Portland being a contender in the Dame era. It will never happen with Olshey as GM and Stotts as coach. And yeah, I know, blahblahblah Dame likes CJ and Dame likes Stotts. But Dame isn't the GM and he isn't the coach. But Dame is the reason that Olshey and Stotts have been in their jobs for 8 years even though every one of those 8 years the team ultimately fails in thudding fashion. Both of those guys keep collecting their multi-million dollar salaries while Dame's prime burns away

I still remember the 2015 playoffs. Portland had just been crushed by Memphis and all Olshey could talk about was how well CJ had played "I told you Terry, I told you". What an ass. But that's how he has managed the team. He has his favorites who he overrates ridiculously, and invests way too much ego into. CJ and Meyers; now, it appears it's Zach and Simons. His guys, and he's forced Portland to depend on them to fill roles they can't fill. And that includes CJ
****************************************************************************************

sorry for the rant, but it's less than a week since another embarrassing playoff failure for Portland. And this time, the salt in the wound was that it was against the damn Lakers.

[monopoman]

I think CJ would function much better as the main man on a team, he has his best games usually when Dame is sitting. For some reason CJ's game drops a bit when Lillard plays, but meanwhile Lillards game is fine when CJ is on the court.

Now CJ may not be good enough to be the main man on a team trying to win I just think that is where he would be at his best.

[SalemStoner]

I really like CJ. However I don’t think he’s the ideal fit next to Dame on the court. More importantly, I don’t think you can win an NBA title today without an effective 3/SF(and preferably more than one). I would go as far to say it’s the most important position in the league as the guys are good at it can regularly guard 3-4 positions. The guys we have there are all have severe weaknesses as defenders and to make matters worse, Dame and CJ are limited defenders at 6’2/6’3. One or both is undersized every night.

I don’t see Nurk or Dame as moveable pieces. That means, in my estimation, our best chance of landing the starting SF that we need for Lillard to have a real chance at a title run is by trading CJ. Likely, we’ll have to add value to him to get it done. The good news is that we already have a starting quality SG as his backup in Gary Trent Jr.

If I was running the team, I would be offering CJ around the league exclusively for SFs that can slide to PF occasionally. Dame, Trent and Nurk are off limits. I would prefer to not trade Collins or Little either, but would part with them for the right piece(s). I’m not in a rush to move him, would certainly explore cheaper options too. I just don’t think we’re gonna find what we need with 1sts in the late teens or twenties. I also don’t see the options currently around(Melo, Ariza, Hood and Little) as being good enough to really compete for a title next season. I would like to keep 2 or 3 of those guys around, but none of them should be our starting SF after the trade deadline next season if we’re serious about not wasting Dame’s prime.

[Sinobas]

I'm a fan of trading him, mainly because of the impact he has on our ability to retain depth. I think we've seen that the Dame CJ duo is not sufficient to carry the team. We need a supporting cast, one that can play better defense.

[Epicurus]

I think CJ would function much better as the main man on a team, he has his best games usually when Dame is sitting. For some reason CJ's game drops a bit when Lillard plays, but meanwhile Lillards game is fine when CJ is on the court.

Now CJ may not be good enough to be the main man on a team trying to win I just think that is where he would be at his best.

I would suggest that reason is that rules only allow one ball on the court during game time.

[GEE]

I think a good question to be asking, while considering a breakup of the Dame/CJ duo, is... What is CJ's value in comparison to Dame's. You must at least ask the question, that is if winning a title is the real objective. If the number one goal is to just stay profitable and make money in a successful business, then Dame retires a Blazer.

Let's just say, hypothetically, The Laker duo of Bron and Brow fails badly, and they don't get past the Rockets. Lebron may decide it wasn't his fault at all, and points the finger at Davis like, go ask him. Davis feels disrespected, and thrown under the bus... and demands a trade. Would anyone consider a Dame for Davis trade? Lebron might.

Blasphemy, I know.

[whatchaknow]

I would think the only gettable Star this off-season is Beal. I personally believe he’s an upgrade over cj and would part with Collins to get him. Would Anybody else entertain that kind of move?

[Matt800]

I would think the only gettable Star this off-season is Beal. I personally believe he’s an upgrade over cj and would part with Collins to get him. Would Anybody else entertain that kind of move?

I would do a straight trade or maybe cj + a protected pick. But I don't see why washington would do it. But I dont think Beal is enough of an upgrade or even a position of need to trade more. There's Trent Jr, Hood, and possibly Simons who can fit that 2 guard spot. And trading Collins without getting a good 4 or 5 back would weaken portland's already weak front court depth.

I love that there's some talk (steven a smith) about how if Giannis came to portland he could win a championship. But what would that even take? Giannis demanding a trade to portland and then portland making a trade around CJ, Collins, and picks? Doesn't seem likely, but a Nurkic and Giannis front court would be fun to watch.