2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th!

[MGB8]

It’s weird to see all the comparative hype for Edwards when his efficiency numbers are not that far off the much-hated Reddish.

Reddish College Stats
13.5 PPG
35.6% FG
49.9% TS

Edwards College Stats
19.1 PPG
40.2% FG
52% TS

Reddish played on a team that he was a 3rd option with a lesser role with 2 great teammates which normally your efficiency goes up.
Edwards was doubled team all the time playing on an awful team with him and nobody else.

Edwards is clearly a more efficient player. He'd go #4 in the 2019 NBA Draft.

Yeah, Reddish had a mediocre freshman season at Duke. You would think he would be very efficient playing alongside Zion and RJ. I still don’t know how he went that high to Atlanta. Edwards is a much better prospect than Reddish.

Eh... don't sleep on Reddish. There's a darn good reason why he went that high. From January on, he was a different player, averaging 13-14 points per game, shooting around 40% from 3, improving his TS% to something like 58%, etc. If that continues, or, more than that, if the trend of improvement continues... Atlanta's 2nd first rounder may end up being one of the top 3 players from last year's draft class. Obviously, a big if, but Reddish's issue was never talent. It was always consistency, especially on his shot.

[BullsFTW]

Reddish College Stats
13.5 PPG
35.6% FG
49.9% TS

Edwards College Stats
19.1 PPG
40.2% FG
52% TS

Reddish played on a team that he was a 3rd option with a lesser role with 2 great teammates which normally your efficiency goes up.
Edwards was doubled team all the time playing on an awful team with him and nobody else.

Edwards is clearly a more efficient player. He'd go #4 in the 2019 NBA Draft.

Yeah, Reddish had a mediocre freshman season at Duke. You would think he would be very efficient playing alongside Zion and RJ. I still don’t know how he went that high to Atlanta. Edwards is a much better prospect than Reddish.

Eh... don't sleep on Reddish. There's a darn good reason why he went that high. From January on, he was a different player, averaging 13-14 points per game, shooting around 40% from 3, improving his TS% to something like 58%, etc. If that continues, or, more than that, if the trend of improvement continues... Atlanta's 2nd first rounder may end up being one of the top 3 players from last year's draft class. Obviously, a big if, but Reddish's issue was never talent. It was always consistency, especially on his shot.

The issue is he was inconsistent in college and it carried over to the NBA. Yes he does have the talent but if he consistently produces putrid statistics, it could be a mental issue which raises a red flag...It is still too early determine if he is a bust, but it is worrisome that he has not produce to what he’s capable of.

[Jcool0]

You don't make a draft trade giving up a player.

Or, just hear me out here, you do.

[PlayerUp]

Eh... don't sleep on Reddish. There's a darn good reason why he went that high. From January on, he was a different player, averaging 13-14 points per game, shooting around 40% from 3, improving his TS% to something like 58%, etc. If that continues, or, more than that, if the trend of improvement continues... Atlanta's 2nd first rounder may end up being one of the top 3 players from last year's draft class. Obviously, a big if, but Reddish's issue was never talent. It was always consistency, especially on his shot.

This is solely about Reddish poor play in college not about 2nd half of the NBA season which I agree he vastly improved. It's why you draft prospects not what they are now but what they can become through proper training. Go for prospects with high ceilings which you feel you can fix their game.

[BigJimFinn]

I don't see any Wiseman's still in the playoffs. I see a few Okongwu's though.

That is really the core argument against using a high pick on a 7-foot center, without any judgement on Wiseman as an individual prospect (have never seen him play). Classic centers just don't provide winning value for a top pick or a big contract.

The starting centers on the second round teams, their draft positions, PPG, and contract, plus notes on their backups:
Bucks - Brook Lopez (10/2008) 12 ppg, $12 M. Was a star scorer on the Nets, never on a contender before joining Bucks as a veteran D&3 roleplayer. Backup brother Robin out of playing rotation in the playoffs.
Celtics - Daniel Theis (undrafted) 9 ppg, $5 M. Backups Robert Williams (27/2018) 5 ppg, R and Enes Kanter (3/2011) 8 ppg. The former high pick Kanter is now on his 5th team and the least useful of the three for lack of D and mobility.
Toronto - Marc Gasol (48/2007) 8 ppg, $26 M. Late pick and late arrival became a two-way star for Memphis, won a title in a smaller role with Toronto. Still a very useful player, but clearly overpaid for current production. Other center Serge Ibaka (24/2008) 15 ppg, $23 M. Great production over the years from a late first pick, good shotblocker and shooter, played most of his career at PF. I like both players, but can't help thinking Toronto would be better off not having 50 million cap tied to veteran bigs providing about 52 minutes combined. Still, they got a ring riding with Kawhi, so no complaints.
Miami - Bam Adebayo (14/2017) 16 ppg, Rookie contract. Here I guess is the main "Okongwu" comp. Already providing fantastic value for a mid-first rounder. Versatile 6'9" big, great D with lateral and vertical athleticism, good passer, non-shooter. Backups veteran stretch bigs Kelly Olynyk (13/2013) $12 M and Meyers Leonard (12/2012) $11 M, similar types with very good 3P%.
Lakers - JaVale McGee (18/2008) 7 ppg, $4 M. Plays 17 mpg catching lobs from LeBron. Backup Dwight Howard (1/2004) 8 ppg, signed for vet min after buyout. The Superman with eye-popping highlight dunks and individual numbers is still chasing his first title as a journeyman on 7th team.
Clippers - Ivica Zubac (32/2016) 8 ppg, $7 M. Plays 20 mpg as an efficient rebounder and inside scorer. Other center Montrezl Harrell (32/2015) 18 ppg, $6 M. 6'7" energy bomb of pure scoring power destroying opposing benches. Lack of D limits minutes against starters. Great value for pick and contract.
Denver - Nikola Jokic (41/2016) 20 ppg, 7 apg, $27 M. Unique player who can dominate defenses without being able to run or jump. Only one of this bunch who is on a big contract with the team that drafted him. Backup Mason Plumlee (22/2013) 7 ppg, $14 M ouch!
Rockets - nobody! Tyson Chandler has missed 2 free throws without playing a second in the first round.

So, the conclusions from who are still playing and who aren't:
- not one top-end pick among the starters, some as veteran backups
- all starters except Jokic have more defensive than offensive value; if Conley hit his shot, this would apply to all teams.
- all the high-drafted, high-scoring franchise centers (Embiid, KAT, Porzingis, Ayton) are at home
- to get paid AND win, centers must provide elite D, passing or 3p shooting; two of those will make a star who might even stay on the court when games are decided
Other considerations on the worth of centers:
- post scoring and rebounding have limited value; even traditional centers producing big numbers can become salary dumps (Drummond, Howard, Whiteside), if lateral mobility, shooting and defensive awareness are missing
- rim-running and shotblocking are easily replaceable from deep in the draft or cheaply signed (even the Bulls managed to find a useful prototype in the second round w Gafford)
- scouting centers has been really unreliable; most of the memorable top-three busts have been 7-footers who failed due to lack of health, heart or skills (Olowokandi, Kwame, Darko, Oden, Bargnani, Thabeet etc) while skilled star prospects have been found in the second round hiding under baby fat

Based on the way Wiseman is described, there might be a chance that he has the lateral mobility, shooting and handles to become a next generation unicorn. Then you consider basketball IQ, work ethic, competitiveness and health risks for someone with practically no record of playing at reasonable level, and this year you do it without normal workouts, never mind scrimmages.
I wouldn't like to make that long-shot bet on a center, especially for a team whose biggest needs are playmaking and wings,
but if AK sees him as BPA and is willing to gamble with his first shot in the job, hopefully fortune favours the brave.

[cjbulls]

It’s weird to see all the comparative hype for Edwards when his efficiency numbers are not that far off the much-hated Reddish.

Reddish College Stats
13.5 PPG
35.6% FG
49.9% TS

Edwards College Stats
19.1 PPG
40.2% FG
52% TS

Reddish played on a team that he was a 3rd option with a lesser role with 2 great teammates which normally your efficiency goes up.
Edwards was doubled team all the time playing on an awful team with him and nobody else.

Edwards is clearly a more efficient player. He'd go #4 in the 2019 NBA Draft.

Reddish was the 10th pick not the 4th. And why is Atlanta taking Edwards when they traded up for Hunter?

You can pump it up all you want, but Edwards couldn’t even make first team all SEC, which for some reason had 10 players on it. So he wasn’t even in the top 10 for his weak conference. He’s the top prospect of a bad bunch, based largely on traits.

No shame in that, but teams should be smart to recognize that and not overpay.

[sco]

I don't see any Wiseman's still in the playoffs. I see a few Okongwu's though.

That is really the core argument against using a high pick on a 7-foot center, without any judgement on Wiseman as an individual prospect (have never seen him play). Classic centers just don't provide winning value for a top pick or a big contract.

The starting centers on the second round teams, their draft positions, PPG, and contract, plus notes on their backups:
Bucks - Brook Lopez (10/2008) 12 ppg, $12 M. Was a star scorer on the Nets, never on a contender before joining Bucks as a veteran D&3 roleplayer. Backup brother Robin out of playing rotation in the playoffs.
Celtics - Daniel Theis (undrafted) 9 ppg, $5 M. Backups Robert Williams (27/2018) 5 ppg, R and Enes Kanter (3/2011) 8 ppg. The former high pick Kanter is now on his 5th team and the least useful of the three for lack of D and mobility.
Toronto - Marc Gasol (48/2007) 8 ppg, $26 M. Late pick and late arrival became a two-way star for Memphis, won a title in a smaller role with Toronto. Still a very useful player, but clearly overpaid for current production. Other center Serge Ibaka (24/2008) 15 ppg, $23 M. Great production over the years from a late first pick, good shotblocker and shooter, played most of his career at PF. I like both players, but can't help thinking Toronto would be better off not having 50 million cap tied to veteran bigs providing about 52 minutes combined. Still, they got a ring riding with Kawhi, so no complaints.
Miami - Bam Adebayo (14/2017) 16 ppg, Rookie contract. Here I guess is the main "Okongwu" comp. Already providing fantastic value for a mid-first rounder. Versatile 6'9" big, great D with lateral and vertical athleticism, good passer, non-shooter. Backups veteran stretch bigs Kelly Olynyk (13/2013) $12 M and Meyers Leonard (12/2012) $11 M, similar types with very good 3P%.
Lakers - JaVale McGee (18/2008) 7 ppg, $4 M. Plays 17 mpg catching lobs from LeBron. Backup Dwight Howard (1/2004) 8 ppg, signed for vet min after buyout. The Superman with eye-popping highlight dunks and individual numbers is still chasing his first title as a journeyman on 7th team.
Clippers - Ivica Zubac (32/2016) 8 ppg, $7 M. Plays 20 mpg as an efficient rebounder and inside scorer. Other center Montrezl Harrell (32/2015) 18 ppg, $6 M. 6'7" energy bomb of pure scoring power destroying opposing benches. Lack of D limits minutes against starters. Great value for pick and contract.
Denver - Nikola Jokic (41/2016) 20 ppg, 7 apg, $27 M. Unique player who can dominate defenses without being able to run or jump. Only one of this bunch who is on a big contract with the team that drafted him. Backup Mason Plumlee (22/2013) 7 ppg, $14 M ouch!
Rockets - nobody! Tyson Chandler has missed 2 free throws without playing a second in the first round.

So, the conclusions from who are still playing and who aren't:
- not one top-end pick among the starters, some as veteran backups
- all starters except Jokic have more defensive than offensive value; if Conley hit his shot, this would apply to all teams.
- all the high-drafted, high-scoring franchise centers (Embiid, KAT, Porzingis, Ayton) are at home
- to get paid AND win, centers must provide elite D, passing or 3p shooting; two of those will make a star who might even stay on the court when games are decided
Other considerations on the worth of centers:
- post scoring and rebounding have limited value; even traditional centers producing big numbers can become salary dumps (Drummond, Howard, Whiteside), if lateral mobility, shooting and defensive awareness are missing
- rim-running and shotblocking are easily replaceable from deep in the draft or cheaply signed (even the Bulls managed to find a useful prototype in the second round w Gafford)
- scouting centers has been really unreliable; most of the memorable top-three busts have been 7-footers who failed due to lack of health, heart or skills (Olowokandi, Kwame, Darko, Oden, Bargnani, Thabeet etc) while skilled star prospects have been found in the second round hiding under baby fat

Based on the way Wiseman is described, there might be a chance that he has the lateral mobility, shooting and handles to become a next generation unicorn. Then you consider basketball IQ, work ethic, competitiveness and health risks for someone with practically no record of playing at reasonable level, and this year you do it without normal workouts, never mind scrimmages.
I wouldn't like to make that long-shot bet on a center, especially for a team whose biggest needs are playmaking and wings,
but if AK sees him as BPA and is willing to gamble with his first shot in the job, hopefully fortune favours the brave.

IDK if this is just a coincidence. With today's game becoming so perimeter oriented, one could argue that post scoring C's are used less on offense, hence muting their value. The problem I noted with Embiid is that he was reliant upon guys getting him the ball in the post to get much of offense.

Back to Wiseman, he is being touted (or marketed depending on how cynical you are) as being an AD/Bosh type player.

If he fell to 4th, I wouldn't kill AK for drafting him if they can extract value from one of WCJ or Gafford during the offseason.

[cjbulls]

I don't see any Wiseman's still in the playoffs. I see a few Okongwu's though.

That is really the core argument against using a high pick on a 7-foot center, without any judgement on Wiseman as an individual prospect (have never seen him play). Classic centers just don't provide winning value for a top pick or a big contract.

The starting centers on the second round teams, their draft positions, PPG, and contract, plus notes on their backups:
Bucks - Brook Lopez (10/2008) 12 ppg, $12 M. Was a star scorer on the Nets, never on a contender before joining Bucks as a veteran D&3 roleplayer. Backup brother Robin out of playing rotation in the playoffs.
Celtics - Daniel Theis (undrafted) 9 ppg, $5 M. Backups Robert Williams (27/2018) 5 ppg, R and Enes Kanter (3/2011) 8 ppg. The former high pick Kanter is now on his 5th team and the least useful of the three for lack of D and mobility.
Toronto - Marc Gasol (48/2007) 8 ppg, $26 M. Late pick and late arrival became a two-way star for Memphis, won a title in a smaller role with Toronto. Still a very useful player, but clearly overpaid for current production. Other center Serge Ibaka (24/2008) 15 ppg, $23 M. Great production over the years from a late first pick, good shotblocker and shooter, played most of his career at PF. I like both players, but can't help thinking Toronto would be better off not having 50 million cap tied to veteran bigs providing about 52 minutes combined. Still, they got a ring riding with Kawhi, so no complaints.
Miami - Bam Adebayo (14/2017) 16 ppg, Rookie contract. Here I guess is the main "Okongwu" comp. Already providing fantastic value for a mid-first rounder. Versatile 6'9" big, great D with lateral and vertical athleticism, good passer, non-shooter. Backups veteran stretch bigs Kelly Olynyk (13/2013) $12 M and Meyers Leonard (12/2012) $11 M, similar types with very good 3P%.
Lakers - JaVale McGee (18/2008) 7 ppg, $4 M. Plays 17 mpg catching lobs from LeBron. Backup Dwight Howard (1/2004) 8 ppg, signed for vet min after buyout. The Superman with eye-popping highlight dunks and individual numbers is still chasing his first title as a journeyman on 7th team.
Clippers - Ivica Zubac (32/2016) 8 ppg, $7 M. Plays 20 mpg as an efficient rebounder and inside scorer. Other center Montrezl Harrell (32/2015) 18 ppg, $6 M. 6'7" energy bomb of pure scoring power destroying opposing benches. Lack of D limits minutes against starters. Great value for pick and contract.
Denver - Nikola Jokic (41/2016) 20 ppg, 7 apg, $27 M. Unique player who can dominate defenses without being able to run or jump. Only one of this bunch who is on a big contract with the team that drafted him. Backup Mason Plumlee (22/2013) 7 ppg, $14 M ouch!
Rockets - nobody! Tyson Chandler has missed 2 free throws without playing a second in the first round.

So, the conclusions from who are still playing and who aren't:
- not one top-end pick among the starters, some as veteran backups
- all starters except Jokic have more defensive than offensive value; if Conley hit his shot, this would apply to all teams.
- all the high-drafted, high-scoring franchise centers (Embiid, KAT, Porzingis, Ayton) are at home
- to get paid AND win, centers must provide elite D, passing or 3p shooting; two of those will make a star who might even stay on the court when games are decided
Other considerations on the worth of centers:
- post scoring and rebounding have limited value; even traditional centers producing big numbers can become salary dumps (Drummond, Howard, Whiteside), if lateral mobility, shooting and defensive awareness are missing
- rim-running and shotblocking are easily replaceable from deep in the draft or cheaply signed (even the Bulls managed to find a useful prototype in the second round w Gafford)
- scouting centers has been really unreliable; most of the memorable top-three busts have been 7-footers who failed due to lack of health, heart or skills (Olowokandi, Kwame, Darko, Oden, Bargnani, Thabeet etc) while skilled star prospects have been found in the second round hiding under baby fat

Based on the way Wiseman is described, there might be a chance that he has the lateral mobility, shooting and handles to become a next generation unicorn. Then you consider basketball IQ, work ethic, competitiveness and health risks for someone with practically no record of playing at reasonable level, and this year you do it without normal workouts, never mind scrimmages.
I wouldn't like to make that long-shot bet on a center, especially for a team whose biggest needs are playmaking and wings,
but if AK sees him as BPA and is willing to gamble with his first shot in the job, hopefully fortune favours the brave.

I see basketball, like most sports, as a balance. Centers are down right now, so over time teams continue to put less and less emphasis on it until a new style comes along to take advantage for how far teams have moved away from size.

That is one of the reasons the Warriors initially achieved their success as the league transitioned away from a low scoring/possession era. Or why the Ravens can be a top offense with a run oriented scheme in a passing league. Not saying that Wiseman is a Lamar Jackson, just that as teams continue to push smaller and smaller, a great center will show up and flip things back in the other direction.

[Ugly Duckling]

Eh... don't sleep on Reddish. There's a darn good reason why he went that high. From January on, he was a different player, averaging 13-14 points per game, shooting around 40% from 3, improving his TS% to something like 58%, etc. If that continues, or, more than that, if the trend of improvement continues... Atlanta's 2nd first rounder may end up being one of the top 3 players from last year's draft class. Obviously, a big if, but Reddish's issue was never talent. It was always consistency, especially on his shot.

This is solely about Reddish poor play in college not about 2nd half of the NBA season which I agree he vastly improved. It's why you draft prospects not what they are now but what they can become through proper training. Go for prospects with high ceilings which you feel you can fix their game.

Leading up to the draft last yr, most of this board was on Culver's nuts. I said we should take Reddish over him and was told I didn't know what I was talking about. Happens every yr

[Ugly Duckling]

I don't see any Wiseman's still in the playoffs. I see a few Okongwu's though.

Preach brother. I just hope he falls to us.

He should be there at 4. I really like him defensively. I see him as a perennial all NBA defensive team guy. But he can't shoot

[Leslie Forman]

Traditional centers haven't been phased out of offenses because it's trendy or there just aren't any good ones anymore, it's because analytics have proven that it's just kind of a dumb idea to give them the ball a lot.

Dumping the ball to a center down low really doesn't result in any more efficient a shot attempt, but at the same time you are vastly downgrading the chances of an assist being generated, while also making a turnover more likely, and really just killing ball movement in general since the guy is often literally not even looking at one side of the court. I have absolutely no numbers to back this up, but I'm gonna assume that (likely proprietary) analytics we don't have access to would show that the assist and turnover rates of low post possessions is absolutely awful.

Maybe in the future there's some giant unholy Jokic/Shaq combo that breaks the whole league, but if that guy ever does show up, everybody will know it when the kid is 6 years old and they will have the hype of LeBron James+Andrew Luck+Tiger Woods+Bryce Harper+Justin Bieber combined.

[MGB8]

Eh... don't sleep on Reddish. There's a darn good reason why he went that high. From January on, he was a different player, averaging 13-14 points per game, shooting around 40% from 3, improving his TS% to something like 58%, etc. If that continues, or, more than that, if the trend of improvement continues... Atlanta's 2nd first rounder may end up being one of the top 3 players from last year's draft class. Obviously, a big if, but Reddish's issue was never talent. It was always consistency, especially on his shot.

This is solely about Reddish poor play in college not about 2nd half of the NBA season which I agree he vastly improved. It's why you draft prospects not what they are now but what they can become through proper training. Go for prospects with high ceilings which you feel you can fix their game.

Leading up to the draft last yr, most of this board was on Culver's nuts. I said we should take Reddish over him and was told I didn't know what I was talking about. Happens every yr

I liked Reddish... but like Culver more as a "safer" pick (though Reddish has more upside than all but 2 other players in that draft, IMO). And while Reddish had a fairly dramatically better 2nd half of the season, Culver was also progressing, too - just not quite as much. His shooting percentages in the final 3 months moved up into the mid 40% overall, and mid 30%s from 3 (around 35%).

I still believe in Culver - though his atrocious FT shooting this season, which only mildly improved over the course of the year to around 50% (and averaging 46% for the year) is a huge red flag. But I expect him to be a significantly better player next year, and the year after too. For whatever reason, outside of Zion and Morant and a couple of others, the last rookie class really had a hard time shooting the ball in the first half of last season.

[cjbulls]

Traditional centers haven't been phased out of offenses because it's trendy or there just aren't any good ones anymore, it's because analytics have proven that it's just kind of a dumb idea to give them the ball a lot.

Dumping the ball to a center down low really doesn't result in any more efficient a shot attempt, but at the same time you are vastly downgrading the chances of an assist being generated, while also making a turnover more likely, and really just killing ball movement in general since the guy is often literally not even looking at one side of the court. I have absolutely no numbers to back this up, but I'm gonna assume that (likely proprietary) analytics we don't have access to would show that the assist and turnover rates of low post possessions is absolutely awful.

Maybe in the future there's some giant unholy Jokic/Shaq combo that breaks the whole league, but if that guy ever does show up, everybody will know it when the kid is 6 years old and they will have the hype of LeBron James+Andrew Luck+Tiger Woods+Bryce Harper+Justin Bieber combined.

The numbers have never shown that Shaq, Hakeem, Ewing, etc. were inefficient. The problem came when you ran it through the average player in a league built around scoring inside.

Everyone had big 7 footers on their rosters to camp in the paint and others designed to stop them. Now teams aren’t investing in true bigs and sticking former 4s and even some wings at Center. Offense are pulling more guys further and further from the basket. That will adjust the equation and at some point it will become efficient again to post up against those smaller defenders/offenses.

[cjbulls]

Eh... don't sleep on Reddish. There's a darn good reason why he went that high. From January on, he was a different player, averaging 13-14
points per game, shooting around 40% from 3, improving his TS% to something like 58%, etc. If that continues, or, more than that, if the trend of improvement continues... Atlanta's 2nd first rounder may end up being one of the top 3 players from last year's draft class. Obviously, a big if, but Reddish's issue was never talent. It was always consistency, especially on his shot.

This is solely about Reddish poor play in college not about 2nd half of the NBA season which I agree he vastly improved. It's why you draft prospects not what they are now but what they can become through proper training. Go for prospects with high ceilings which you feel you can fix their game.

Leading up to the draft last yr, most of this board was on Culver's nuts. I said we should take Reddish over him and was told I didn't know what I was talking about. Happens every yr

Yeah I remember lots of posters yelling at me about Reddish and how it would be impossible for him to succeed in the NBA just because of his FG%. The jury is still very much out but he had all the tools to be a good player so it isn’t all that surprising to me that he could turn it around. We will see.

[MGB8]

Traditional centers haven't been phased out of offenses because it's trendy or there just aren't any good ones anymore, it's because analytics have proven that it's just kind of a dumb idea to give them the ball a lot.

Dumping the ball to a center down low really doesn't result in any more efficient a shot attempt, but at the same time you are vastly downgrading the chances of an assist being generated, while also making a turnover more likely, and really just killing ball movement in general since the guy is often literally not even looking at one side of the court. I have absolutely no numbers to back this up, but I'm gonna assume that (likely proprietary) analytics we don't have access to would show that the assist and turnover rates of low post possessions is absolutely awful.

Maybe in the future there's some giant unholy Jokic/Shaq combo that breaks the whole league, but if that guy ever does show up, everybody will know it when the kid is 6 years old and they will have the hype of LeBron James+Andrew Luck+Tiger Woods+Bryce Harper+Justin Bieber combined.

Disagree.

Traditional centers have been phased out precisely because there aren't really good ones - in conjunction with the rules that allow defenses to make it harder on opposing centers than in the past (both in terms of denying entry passes and in terms of defending with multiple players) while allowing wings and guards to shoot in a more uncontested fashion than in the past.

That said, centers have traditionally shot much higher percentages because closer shots tend to be easier to make than farther shots. even this year, you see centers scoring at as high as 70% - 1.4 PPP on the attempt. Then you add the advantage in getting rebounds, to include offensive rebounds (extra possessions) - and the ability to impact driving lanes, reducing opponents PPP.

But there is no Shaq right now. No Abdul Jabar, no Wilt, no Admiral, no Hakeem. Embiid is the closest thing - and he plays soft too often - so he shoots only 48% - but at least he's an alpha scorer. KAT's similar in playing soft, and even Jokic to some degree. The better interior scoring centers are guys like Valanciunas (a big part of Memphis' relative success)... "meh"

You find a ultra-high caliber offensive center, who are hard to stop with only 1 similarly sized interior defender (and, obviously, no guarantee that Wiseman will be that - hasn't shown that kind of interior skill / footwork yet)... that's a huge advantage over teams going small.

[chefo]

Yeah, when we are talking centers, context matters. The Dream, Admiral, Ewing and Shaq were completely different beasts that the guys nowadays. They were the alphas on their team, and played with aggression on both ends (sans Shaq). At their peaks they combined for 4-5 blocks + steals / game, while anchoring the D.

Then, there was also the fact that you couldn't guard them 1-on-1 or else they'd just destroy you. The numbers you see on bball reference are with them getting double teamed for most possessions every game. I remember watching enough games of where some of the bigs were not double-teamed to know they'd drop 40+ on your team if left alone.

Having a Dream or an Admiral was the equivalent of having a Gobert+ on D, and a Giannis-like player on O. Yeah, that kind of player would kick posteriors and probably be the best player in the NBA today, much like Giannis is.

P.S. The Admiral at his peak averaged 7 steals + blocks for a year . So did Hakeem . Pat Ewing was at 5, which would make him the best defensive anchor today, but he was the 3rd/4th best C defender of his time.

[MrFortune3]

Traditional centers haven't been phased out of offenses because it's trendy or there just aren't any good ones anymore, it's because analytics have proven that it's just kind of a dumb idea to give them the ball a lot.

Dumping the ball to a center down low really doesn't result in any more efficient a shot attempt, but at the same time you are vastly downgrading the chances of an assist being generated, while also making a turnover more likely, and really just killing ball movement in general since the guy is often literally not even looking at one side of the court. I have absolutely no numbers to back this up, but I'm gonna assume that (likely proprietary) analytics we don't have access to would show that the assist and turnover rates of low post possessions is absolutely awful.

Maybe in the future there's some giant unholy Jokic/Shaq combo that breaks the whole league, but if that guy ever does show up, everybody will know it when the kid is 6 years old and they will have the hype of LeBron James+Andrew Luck+Tiger Woods+Bryce Harper+Justin Bieber combined.

No, they have been phased out because big as 6-11 280 lb giants who should dominate and sneeze 18-10 decided they didn't want to work hard pushed themselves out of a job as teams had to compensate and develop ways to build around the most talented players.

[MrFortune3]

Reddish is a player who I liked and thought people were overstating the college stats on. With that said, you have to be a big team on player development and have a plan in place to draft him and get the correct potential out of him.

[PaKii94]

I saw nothing even remotely, let alone remarkably, similar to this kind of skill in that video.

Watch on YouTube

Now I'm all for drafting raw talents who have unspectacular stats but show great flashes on tape, but Vassell's tape doesn't exactly scream high ceiling. Of course he can pull a Jimmy Butler and just wildly exceed expectations but that's utterly unpredictable and not something one should ever bank on.

He looks sort of like the Wendell Carter of wings. Which is not actually a bad thing at all. He'll probably have a long career. But I'd be looking for something more high ceiling.

We'll take WCJ as a jack of all trades baseline and convert it to a SF body. Now add:

-positive positional size (wcj was undersized/negative ps). Vassell is long and has a good frame that you can put muscle on

-game warping defense (vassell IS that good of a defender)

-more proven/reliable 3 point shot ( I believe vassell's shot will translate

All that together is a damn good player and that's the minimum for him. Any offensive improvement is chery on top. He doesn't need to be tatum to be more impactful than him.

Again I want to emphasize the defense. Usually defenders are lowered cause they are specialists that can't shoot. Vassell can do both already

Shouldn't Mikal be the Vassell comparison?

You say that like that's a bad thing


Initially, that's who I was comparing Vassell to also but Vassell has a few things going for him that make him a better prospect than Mikal coming in. Here are my thoughts on the situation:

1) Desperate need for glue guy wing

Mikal is someone I DID want during that draft because this team has been sorely missing the glue guy/defensive guy/ intangibles guy at SF ever since Deng/Jimmy left. We have been plugging the hole with undersized guards and while they perform admirably, it's still a handicap on the team. You can see how much a healthy OPJ helps the team (+7.3 on/off). OPJ isn't even a great defender. He's average at best on defense but he does all the little things and then provides size and some efficient offense with his shooting and he's a strong positive. Now imagine if we can get similar offense + upgrade to all NBA defense at the position.

2) Mikal as a baseline isn't bad.

Technically Mikal has had his issues during his short NBA career (injuries + random hitch developed into his shot...more on that later) but he seems to be back on track and has already become a fan favorite in Phoenix. He doesn't get much recognition in the highlights because he's not a flashy player but he is a WINNING player. Analytics already paint him as a strong defender. Here is some of the latest on him:

https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2020/8/8/21359843/case-study-mikal-bridges-phoenix-suns-best-defenders-in-the-nba

We can clearly see that Mikal has been pretty elite at most of these categories in the bubble. The only other NBA player present in the bubble who has the same profile as Bridges & compares numbers-wise is Pascal Siakam.

Just like the Deandre Ayton / Anthony Davis parallel I made a few months back on their defensive impact, I can safely say today that players who share the same defensive profile as Mikal are... very few and far between. Kawhi Leonard didn’t fair according to his standards in the DFG% categories compared to what he’s capable of so let’s put him here. Him and Mikal look a lot alike defensively imo. Ditto Giannis who can’t be ignored as a multifaceted ultra efficient & prolific defensive player (for me he’s DPOY material). He looks like a giant Mikal on defense. He’s The Greek Freak after all.

https://arizonasports.com/story/2312218/mikal-bridges-breakthrough-on-his-jumper-had-him-reemerge-on-suns/

From this game on, Bridges is shooting 39.6% from three-point range on 3.8 attempts a game. Prior to that game, he was at 29.4% on 1.7 attempts.

Those numbers, and the increased confidence that came with it, was all he needed.

Bridges was even better defensively after that, and will be getting All-Defense love once the moons align on the national media’s attention turning enough to Phoenix

...

Bridges is an elite finisher, particularly in transition. He’s shooting 72% at the rim, one of the highest marks in the league.

With that number aided a bit by great passers like Rubio and Devin Booker knowing to get him the ball there and to find him on cuts, Bridges is also awesome at finishing with those looooong arms.

...

Here is some of his defense:

Read on Twitter

?s=20


https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2020/7/20/21330649/mikal-bridges-phoenix-suns-is-montys-glue-guy

The progression Bridges has displayed during the 2019-20 season has fortified our trust in his abilities. The expectations for his involvement in the next Suns renaissance continue to excite with every possession. If Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are the steak and potatoes, Mikal Bridges is the seasoning that makes it work as a five-star meal.

Mikal Bridges is the Suns official “glue guy”.

Every winnimg team has them. They are players that hold the roster together, rise up and excel when the obstacles seem insurmountable, and dig into the trenches, chucking Molotav cocktails over the concertina wire at the enemy. They are more than simply “role players”.

...

Mikal Bridges is quickly developing into a player who has gained the respect of coaches, teammates, and fans alike. Don’t believe me? Ask any Suns fan about their willingness to trade Bridges. You’ll be met with opposition. He is ours. We stole him on draft night and you can’t have him!

The moment Mikal joined the starting lineup on January 16, the team changed. The record might not reflect the impact (the team went 9-12 in his final 21 starts, the BOBRA went 4-6 overall on the year), but Mikal’s impact was felt.

His last 25 games of the season, 21 of which were starts, saw Bridges score 11.3 points-per-game on 39.8% from deep. He had on offensive rating of 120 (compared to 114 in his first 40 games) and a true shooting percentage of 64.1%.

...

“We all value Mikal,” Williams commented, “He’s a gut that plays on both ends. He has leadership qualities.”

You can’t win games unless you have your glue guys performing as such. You know it. I know it. And Monty knows it.

“He’s a bit of a glue guy in the locker room and on the floor.”

I share these quotes not to hype up Mikal but to show that he HAS been successful and impactful and is on the right path. Unlike someone like Kevin Knox for example ("The size tho"). Getting a player like him isn't settling.


^ Now to Vassell. Seeing how impactful Mikal has been, I think Vassell can be even more so! Here is why:

1) AGE

Mikal came into the league old as a 22 year old. Vassell if this was a normal season would play it out as a 20 year old. Even if they were equal prospects talent wise, Vassell still has 2 years on him (but I think vassell is the more talented one)

2) BETTER SHOT

Mikal over the years developed into a better shooter. It's a testament to his hard work but he's not a natural shooter. This is also seen with the hitch he developed in the NBA (but has seemed to work out of). Vassell has shot over 40% on 3s for his college career. Eye test wise, Vassell's shot looks "purer" to me.

3) BETTER BODY

Mikal and Vassell are linked because they are SFs with long arms. But you have to compare the bodies a bit closer. Depending on the frame some players have more room to fill out. Vassell is one of those. Mikal already had to fill out during college to play a star role on villanova. His nickname was beanpole at villanova. Vassell still has room to grow which will only help his game.

Mikal to me has a "square" frame where you can only put on so much. He's almost a finished product. Vassell is a "triangle" frame.

Here is a pic of Mikal coming out of Villanova:


And here is Vassell of out FSU:


So vassell matched (or exceeded imo) Mikal's college production with a worse build. He should get even better from here.

Vassell's frame reminded me of this guy:


4) BETTER DEFENSE

Both of these guys play excellent defense but I feel like their defense has different nuances. Mikal is like a bulldog, he's a bully, tough, a pest that knocks you off balance.

Vassell to me the word that comes to mind is PREDATOR. He reminds me of a tarantula. He just smothers whoever he's near. Not just a pest but straight domination. It's blasphemous but his defense reminds me of pip from the highlights i've seen of pip. It's just that good. The only deficiency I see is post defense (which he can improve with increased muscle/strength).

Mikal with the eye test you can look at film and see his nuances and why he's a good defender. Vassell just pops out on another level of domination. He just looks like a freak. Here is a nice video of the versatility in just ONE game he has countless more:

Watch on YouTube

Yeah yeah 1 play but the first play in this one (along with a slick outlet pass):

Watch on YouTube

Does that remind anyone of this?

Watch on YouTube

With some added strength he's easily going to become all nba defense within a year or two.


5) imo BETTER OFFENSE

The knock on both Mikal and Vassell are they aren't iso shot creators...that's fine. We have plenty of that. What we need is a player to make winning plays. Both Mikal and Vassell do that. However, I think Vassell is a bit further along with his offensive game compared to Mikal. Mikal knew his role and stuck to his role (cuts +3s). Vassell showed some midrange one-two dribble creation abilities. This is all we need from a 3rd option. We don't need more iso play. We need a player who will hit the shots efficiently in the seams. I think Vassell's purer shot helps with that.

I am not going to say Vassell will develop into a strong offensive talent... but we don't NEED him to do that to hit on him. Any developed offense is the cherry on top.

TLDR: Better all around with more potential to grow into his body at a younger age compared to Mikal.


-----

I know people put him down because he doesn't seem to have a high offensive ceiling but the key thing is basketball is a two way game. Usually guys who are 99 percentile on the defensive end have glaring offensive deficiencies (MKG for example) but Vassell doesn't have that.

I would much rather see Vassell make winning plays with his limited offensive talent instead of someone like Ball who would chuck away half the possessions. Sure Ball might have star potential but it's not going to be recognized any time soon which means Bulls continue to be bad.

[Leslie Forman]

Why supposed fans of the team that literally won six titles as the prototype of today's centerless, wing-focused smallball game always want a big ol' tall MFer will always perplex me. Maybe Jerry Krause incepted all you guys.

The greatest dynasty of modern basketball, and they basically found their center outside a Waffle House before the game and that's when rules were even more favorable to low post centers. You'd think fans of this franchise would know better than to waste valuable assets on traditional centers.