shangrila wrote:Slim Tubby wrote:shangrila wrote:I'm not sure I buy that.
I know it's the consensus opinion and Wiseman is the latest fetish around here, but there's two issues with him going to GS; firstly, there's been enough smoke going back a while that teams weren't high on Wiseman and secondly, that they want to be the Spurs and so would be looking for someone else to take up the mantle Curry will soon leave behind. They'll draft BPA, not for need. Maybe that's Wiseman, maybe that's Edwards or Ball or they think it's someone else entirely. Regardless, I highly doubt they're just looking for guys to compliment their aging (aged?) core that likely isn't a true contender anymore.
Fair enough...it is too expensive for GSW if they don’t believe in Wiseman the way I do. I would argue that the Warriors still have a 2-4 year window. I really like Toppin too and wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being the best player in this class. I believe his floor is Brandon Clarke who I really like as a player.
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If Toppin becomes the best player from this draft I think it says a lot more about the rest of the draft than it does him.
His defence is terrible with little if any upside. His scoring around the basket is obviously good and he's got some moves in the post, though his high centre of gravity and poor lower body strength make me dubious that it'll translate all that well. His shooting is a mirage; the 39% from 3 is nice but the low attempts and low FT% don't give me any reason to think it will translate in the short term, if ever. Combine it with poor rebounding for a guy with his size, strength and athleticism and I see a player that cares about scoring and little else. Those aren't generally winning players, especially if his scoring isn't elite (which I don't think his is).
He's got bust written all over him to me and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the second coming of Derrick Williams.
While the board doesn't set up for Minnesota to draft Toppin, he's still has a great chance of being a great player. He excels at every shooting metric (at the rim, paint, mid-range, three-point shooting). He shot 43-103 on three-pointers in college. I don't think 103 is a low number. He struggles defensively but it's important to remember he had a late growth spurt. He was a wing throughout high school. He has only played in the paint for a couple of years. Sure, he could be awful guarding the pick and roll or he could get better as he plays closer to the basket more. Guys like Okongwu have played in the post throughout high school and college. It's second nature to them. Toppin is still learning. Just look at how much his rebounding approved from his freshman to sophomore year. Sam Venicie said he talked to a scout who told him
"For the past three years, Toppin has been the most improved played in prep and high school basketball - going from zero star recruit to getting a offer from Dayton to being a fringe draft prospect to a lottery pick. The reality is that we have no idea what Toppin's ceiling is and we should stop guessing wrong."
Everyone says he's the one most likely to be a bust. I disagree, I see him as the player most likely to overplay his draft slot as he drops to a team like Sacramento or Portland and puts up 20 points a game.
