What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[Slax]

I’m 35 years old and got to experience Pierces entire career here.

Tatums ceiling is far above Pierce. And that’s not a knock on the truth either.

Yeah I don't mean this as a criticism of Pierce who is my favorite player of all time and was an unbelievable talent, but Tatum is already such a better outside shooter and defender than Pierce was at any point in his career that there's no way I would limit his ceiling to somewhere at or just above Pierce. This isn't to say that he will definitely end his career as a greater player than Pierce - potential is different from an actual body of work spanning over a decade and a half of quality play, and only a select bunch of great players have had careers that rival Pierce's. But a player with Tatum's mix of physical build, fitness, shooting, defense, shot creation, and rebounding at 22 years old has sky high potential.

Pierce made the All-Stars for the first time when he was 25, his 4th year in the league.
Tatum is well above where Pierce was at, at 22.

If Tatum stays the course, then Pierce is his floor.
IDK what his ceiling is.

Yeah I think that's probably right. But I do want to emphasize, one of the greatest things about Pierce was his incredible consistency and longevity. He was able to adapt to changing styles of play and keep in game shape and be impactful for a loooong time, to an extent that most NBA stars don't. At this point I think it's most likely true that Tatum's star will shine brighter than Pierce's at his peak, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he will be the greater player.

[JHTruth]

In these playoffs Tatum is literally putting up all-time great numbers at the age of 22. 27-9-3 on .624 TS%, 25.9 PER, .264 W/S/48, 9.6 BPM with elite defense as the first option on a legitimate contender.

There really is no sky with Jason. One of the most efficient, winning, productive players we've ever seen in the league. The final key to unlocking greatness for him is improving his playmaking but he is doing that to an extent..

[Parliament10]

Yeah I don't mean this as a criticism of Pierce who is my favorite player of all time and was an unbelievable talent, but Tatum is already such a better outside shooter and defender than Pierce was at any point in his career that there's no way I would limit his ceiling to somewhere at or just above Pierce. This isn't to say that he will definitely end his career as a greater player than Pierce - potential is different from an actual body of work spanning over a decade and a half of quality play, and only a select bunch of great players have had careers that rival Pierce's. But a player with Tatum's mix of physical build, fitness, shooting, defense, shot creation, and rebounding at 22 years old has sky high potential.

Pierce made the All-Stars for the first time when he was 25, his 4th year in the league.
Tatum is well above where Pierce was at, at 22.

If Tatum stays the course, then Pierce is his floor.
IDK what his ceiling is.

Yeah I think that's probably right. But I do want to emphasize, one of the greatest things about Pierce was his incredible consistency and longevity. He was able to adapt to changing styles of play and keep in game shape and be impactful for a loooong time, to an extent that most NBA stars don't. At this point I think it's most likely true that Tatum's star will shine brighter than Pierce's at his peak, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he will be the greater player.

True. Tatum may not end up as the greater player, when it's all said and done. Though he definitely has the potential.
Tatum has a pretty good cast around him, as well. 15 years would put him at 34. Seems doable.

[Slax]

Some interesting background on the drafting of Tatum: Danny called JB (not on draft night) to ask if they should take Josh Jackson or Tatum, and Jaylen said JT all the way:
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/09/01/celtics-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-relationship?fbclid=IwAR0kNAxZ8v4VqZlxoonXul5cmx2Khk4oGY0bCk2enDMhfa6gqoitudpS4DE

This actually makes me feel like the Tatum pick was at least partly luck. Like, Danny clearly did the right thing trading down, but if he was still asking around about Jackson all the way to the draft to the point of bothering players while they're on vacation, it sounds like Tatum vs Jackson still wasn't 100% settled at that point. Anyway, luck or skill, it completely saved our franchise that the front office drafted Tatum and not and of the other players in the top 12 in that draft!

[31to6]

Some interesting background on the drafting of Tatum: Danny called JB (not on draft night) to ask if they should take Josh Jackson or Tatum, and Jaylen said JT all the way:
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/09/01/celtics-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-relationship?fbclid=IwAR0kNAxZ8v4VqZlxoonXul5cmx2Khk4oGY0bCk2enDMhfa6gqoitudpS4DE

This actually makes me feel like the Tatum pick was at least partly luck. Like, Danny clearly did the right thing trading down, but if he was still asking around about Jackson all the way to the draft to the point of bothering players while they're on vacation, it sounds like Tatum vs Jackson still wasn't 100% settled at that point. Anyway, luck or skill, it completely saved our franchise that the front office drafted Tatum and not and of the other players in the top 12 in that draft!

Yeah it rattled me a bit to read this and I was JJ’s #1 booster on this board before that draft.

So maybe Danny realized Fultz was a bust after their trip to Chipotle or whatever .. but it’s cooler if he “always knew” about Tatum.

When exactly was this phone call? Article says “Days before the draft”..

[BostonCouchGM]

Some interesting background on the drafting of Tatum: Danny called JB (not on draft night) to ask if they should take Josh Jackson or Tatum, and Jaylen said JT all the way:
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/09/01/celtics-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown-relationship?fbclid=IwAR0kNAxZ8v4VqZlxoonXul5cmx2Khk4oGY0bCk2enDMhfa6gqoitudpS4DE

This actually makes me feel like the Tatum pick was at least partly luck. Like, Danny clearly did the right thing trading down, but if he was still asking around about Jackson all the way to the draft to the point of bothering players while they're on vacation, it sounds like Tatum vs Jackson still wasn't 100% settled at that point. Anyway, luck or skill, it completely saved our franchise that the front office drafted Tatum and not and of the other players in the top 12 in that draft!

I'll take credit being the only person I read on any forum who thought Fultz was overrated. If he was online and Fultz was being discussed, he saw my rants. Glad to know I set the franchise up for success. Tatum was my #1 too. You're welcome
You could tell Danny loved JJ. He played like a wing version of Smart in college and he was salivating about him. JJ should be a much better pro but he's a complete knucklehead. Maybe the lights will go on for him down the road but I doubt it.

[celtics543]

Slander? I asked a question.

Maybe slander was a bit strong but it drives me crazy when people start asking whether a guy who's played at a high level for less than a year is as good or better than a prime hall of famer.

Pierce was a good player.
Bu as I said, Tatum is well above where Pierce was at, at 22.

Again, If Tatum stays the course, then Pierce is his floor.
IDK what his ceiling is.

I guess the key phrase there is "at 22" because a lot of guys were above Pierce at 22. Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady were both above Pierce at 22 and I think Pierce clearly had a better career. I really like Jayson Tatum. He's been unreal for the second half of this season and I have a lot of hope for his future but to say a Paul Pierce career is his floor seems a bit much.

I'm excited that anyone thinks a hall of fame career is his floor but that sounds a little exaggerated right now. Or maybe I overrate Pierce, that could also be the issue I'm having with saying Pierce is anyone's floor.

Tatum definitely looks like a future superstar and I hope he makes it there, being better than Pierce would make me extremely happy (provided hes' still a Celtic).

[UNCBlue012]

It's hard to say but if he stays healthy, he can become one of the all-time Celtic greats... and that's incredible. If he can lead Boston to a title this year, oh boy...

[31to6]

Maybe not in terms of playing style but career glory, Dwyane Wade? Wade also won a title really early:). Always one of the best players in the league, yet not someone that leapt to mind if you asked me to “quick, name an NBA star.”

[Slax]

Maybe slander was a bit strong but it drives me crazy when people start asking whether a guy who's played at a high level for less than a year is as good or better than a prime hall of famer.

Pierce was a good player.
Bu as I said, Tatum is well above where Pierce was at, at 22.

Again, If Tatum stays the course, then Pierce is his floor.
IDK what his ceiling is.

I guess the key phrase there is "at 22" because a lot of guys were above Pierce at 22. Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady were both above Pierce at 22 and I think Pierce clearly had a better career. I really like Jayson Tatum. He's been unreal for the second half of this season and I have a lot of hope for his future but to say a Paul Pierce career is his floor seems a bit much.

I'm excited that anyone thinks a hall of fame career is his floor but that sounds a little exaggerated right now. Or maybe I overrate Pierce, that could also be the issue I'm having with saying Pierce is anyone's floor.

Tatum definitely looks like a future superstar and I hope he makes it there, being better than Pierce would make me extremely happy (provided hes' still a Celtic).

I think this sort of matches what I was describing about the difference between current talent and potential vs greatness and career achievements. Pierce had an extremely long prime where he was an all star level player for longer than ten years. He was a locker room leader. He carried a team with Mark Blount as the second best player into the playoffs. He was great in both the regular season and the playoffs. He had a ton of clutch games and hit as many clutch game-tying and go-ahead shots as I remember anyone hitting during his tenure in the league. When the time came, he managed to keep his ego in check and take a step back so he could share the spotlight and offense with KG, Ray, and Rondo when that was what was needed to win a championship.

Tatum hasn't accumulated those sorts of achievements yet. They could come, but it's certainly not his floor. But in terms of just NBA game time talent alone - scoring, defense, rebounding, shooting efficiency, etc - I think Tatum is pretty close to or roughly at where Pierce was at his peak, so it would be an unusual stagnation if he didn't manage to exceed Pierce's peak talent level at some point within the next few years, assuming he hasn't already (the post all star break play is better than any full season Pierce had, but it's an extremely small sample).

[Feed Your Head]

Really poor game shooting the ball, his shot looked like crap, and he wasn’t going up strong at the rim.

BUT, the jump in playmaking is real, and it’s a massive one over the course of the bubble. 6 assists each of the last two nights, and made a number of awesome passes that didn’t lead directly to buckets.

[ConstableGeneva]

Really poor game shooting the ball, his shot looked like crap, and he wasn’t going up strong at the rim.

BUT, the jump in playmaking is real, and it’s a massive one over the course of the bubble. 6 assists each of the last two nights, and made a number of awesome passes that didn’t lead directly to buckets.

Finishing through contact/traffic is still an issue. Wish he would've just taken a couple of those semi-open threes instead of forcing it inside. His shot's too pure to miss so many. He probably tried to foul-bait too much.

He only took 4 threes last night. Not nearly enough. Raps usually trap/double him when Tatum calls for a screen. One adjustment to make is just don't call for a pick so as not to draw another defender. In this instance, I don't mind him iso-ing for his patented step-back three. (IT used to do this. Just don't screen for him.)

[FelixD]

No disrespect to Ainge, but you shouldnt make your decisions based of what the roster thinks. Its understable if you ask Stevens but asking Jaylen is a bit WTF.

At the end, it was a good decision so whatever.

[3D Chess]

No disrespect to Ainge, but you shouldnt make your decisions based of what the roster thinks. Its understable if you ask Stevens but asking Jaylen is a bit WTF.

At the end, it was a good decision so whatever.

Draft process is about gathering as much information as possible on every prospect. Nothing wrong with hearing the opinion of a guy that has been around him outside of an 'audition' setting like a draft workout or interview.

[djFan71]

No disrespect to Ainge, but you shouldnt make your decisions based of what the roster thinks. Its understable if you ask Stevens but asking Jaylen is a bit WTF.

At the end, it was a good decision so whatever.

Draft process is about gathering as much information as possible on every prospect. Nothing wrong with hearing the opinion of a guy that has been around him outside of an 'audition' setting like a draft workout or interview.

Yeah, JB was one of many, many inputs on the decision.

[ConstableGeneva]

Tatum is by far the youngest guy in this group. He's already figuring out how to be an impactful player as the primary option against the toughest of defenses. (At least that's how I interpret this table.)

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[ConstableGeneva]

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[Feed Your Head]

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If this large jump in playmaking is for real, and there’s no reason to believe otherwise, we’re looking at a guy who probably going to be a top 3-5 player sooner than later.

And I know rankings are subjective, but the most important part is he clearly he going to be a legitimate #1 on a championship team.

[celtics543]

After the last two games I don't see how anyone can still put him above a prime Paul Pierce. He's been bad. His handle is awful for a perimeter player, I literally cringe when he puts the ball on the floor. It's almost a guaranteed turnover. Again, I hope he finds some consistency but these last two games he's been bad. I'm sticking with my original thoughts on Tatum. He's a great player but he'll never be the best guy on a title team.

[Feed Your Head]

After the last two games I don't see how anyone can still put him above a prime Paul Pierce. He's been bad. His handle is awful for a perimeter player, I literally cringe when he puts the ball on the floor. It's almost a guaranteed turnover. Again, I hope he finds some consistency but these last two games he's been bad. I'm sticking with my original thoughts on Tatum. He's a great player but he'll never be the best guy on a title team.

Tatum put up 24/10 on 18 shots, while being swarmed by the Raps every time he touched the ball. He wasn’t very good, the turnovers were awful, and he struggled from three for sure. But using the last two games to justify your opinion after he’s put up the numbers he has the last 60
games is weird.