Trade Talk (Part Four)

[jayu70]

For me, Minnesota should keep pushing for Collins. I still think Atlanta will move him for the right offer. Atlanta has made draft trades the past two years and I could see them pulling the trigger again. Rosas and Co. have two months to put the puzzle together.

Collins keeps improving and maybe Atlanta will think "We couldn't win with Young and Collins, maybe we could win with Young and Edwards."

Will it be easy? No, but a good front office can get it done.

I would do #1 and crappy players to match salary for Collins and #6

Collins will make $4.1 million next season.

[minimus]

...

Hi, welcome on MIN board!

1) What do you think about Antman?
2) Is Collins worth max deal? I.e. is he the second star next to Trae?
3) What do you think about Hunter and Reddish prospective and trade value?
4) Who you think is a good fit next to Trae at SG position?

[jayu70]

...

Hi, welcome on MIN board!

1) What do you think about Antman?
2) Is Collins worth max deal? I.e. is he second star next to Trae?
3) What do you think about Hunter and Reddish prospective and trade value?
4) Who you think is a good fit next to Trae at SG position?

1. If the Hawks had gotten the top pick, chances are they would have taken him, however being at #6, I don't see them trading up for him (rumor is the NYK wants to move up to #1 using Atlanta as a spring board, the hold up is that Minny wants the NYK 2021 1st and NYK is offering the Mavs 2021 1st). His offense can be special as he is a 3 level scorer, his immediate defense next to Trae is problematic.

2. I don't think Collins is worth a max deal and I don't think he gets one. This is what I posted on the Hawks board

I don't think he gets a max contract. His max is 25% of the cap, $27 mil if the cap remains at $109 (Covid related)....I said previously I see him getting somewhere in between what Sabonis got and what Jalen Brown got, $18 - $23 mil...so say 20% of the cap which would be $21 mil-ish.

Collins is the ying to Trae's yang. A 20/10 guy with elite efficency and an improving 3 point shot. His defense needs work, but he has shown improvement each season. His timing and awareness has improved which has helped his block numbers. Still struggles in space but that is why we went out and got Capella to help with our defense. Both Collins and Trae say they both have to be better defensively to take the step step.

3. Very high on Reddish so not available. Hunter is interesting - Hawks gave up a lot to get him in a better draft last year so doubtful he is available in a weaker draft. I don't think the Hawks are interested in trading them for just picks in this draft. The intend is to make the playoffs next season.

4. Most Hawks are hoping that Reddish supplants Huerter as the starting SG next season - his defense was special despite his offensive struggles to start the season the first 2 months. We're hopeful he gives us the 2-way potential next to Trae.
This is from last week's Q&A of a Hawks beat writer (Chris Kirschner, The Athletic, ATL):

I know this isn’t a fair comparison, but based on how Cam Reddish performed during his rookie, where would you rank him in this draft?
Really, the only player I would have over him is LaMelo Ball. Dynamic lead guards are so valuable in today’s game, and Ball is going to walk into the league and immediately be one of the top distributors. Out of the wings projected in the lottery, I wouldn’t take Anthony Edwards, the projected top pick, over Reddish. Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro and Devin Vassell are all solid, but I don’t see star potential for them. I still see that in Reddish if he reaches his highest potential outcome.

[KGdaBom]

For me, Minnesota should keep pushing for Collins. I still think Atlanta will move him for the right offer. Atlanta has made draft trades the past two years and I could see them pulling the trigger again. Rosas and Co. have two months to put the puzzle together.

Collins keeps improving and maybe Atlanta will think "We couldn't win with Young and Collins, maybe we could win with Young and Edwards."

Will it be easy? No, but a good front office can get it done.

I would do #1 and crappy players to match salary for Collins and #6

Collins will make $4.1 million next season.

OK so as much crappy players as it takes. Jayu I'm not expecting you to trade us Collins, but just in case

[Neeva]

Oh brother reddish blew his freshman year at duke and for most of his rookie season and a little hot streak at the end of it suddenly he is untouchable? If any player in this draft had shooting nights like he did people would be ripping them apart.

[TaylorTag]

What if we did a S&T involving Malik Beasely and Josh Richardson? Not sure what else would need to be included the match the values, but at $10M a year Richardson could be an interesting wing and glue guy for Russel and Towns..

My only worry is that Richardson has a player option after next season and not sure he would exercise it

[minimus]

...

Thank you for honest post! One last question: who do you think ATL should target in FA market?

[jayu70]

...

Thank you for honest post! One last question: who do you think ATL should target in FA market?

Center is the only position Hawks are set at with Capela, Dedmon and Bruno. So backup PG and PF are most pressing but we also can use additional wing players. Shooting and defense.
Hawks have anywhere from $42-$48 million in capspace. Ideally, any of the FAs are targets Joe Harris, Davis Bertans, Jerami Grant, Malik Beasely, Chris Dunn. I've proposed trades from teams looking to cut salary like from the Kings for Cory Joseph and Bejelica into straight capspace.

[jayu70]

Oh brother reddish blew his freshman year at duke and for most of his rookie season and a little hot streak at the end of it suddenly he is untouchable? If any player in this draft had shooting nights like he did people would be ripping them apart.

Yes on all counts.
Yes, he had a rough college career which started early with injuries that hampered him throughout the season, here is Coach K:

After the Blue-White scrimmage Duke Basketball Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski announced that Reddish suffered a fractured rib in practice on Tuesday but has been playing through the injury after consulting with the teams medical staff and coaches Coach K said that the injury has affected Reddish’s shot, but he is wearing a corset to protect the fractured rib. He also had a toe injury

Fast forward to the draft - he cut short his draft workouts because he required Core muscle surgery.
He then missed Summer League, training camp and the preseason with the Hawks to start his NBA career. He was brutal in October and November shooting, but his defense was the lone bright spot on a team that was really bad defensively.
As the season went on he got better month over month. Vince Carter said he worked with him to 'be shot ready and to take the 'noodle' out of his shot'. That lead to his improved shooting. Is he a complete player, No. Does he still need work, Yes. Is he available for any one prospect in the draft - NO!

[minimus]

...

Thank you for honest post! One last question: who do you think ATL should target in FA market?

Center is the only position Hawks are set at with Capela, Dedmon and Bruno. So backup PG and PF are most pressing but we also can use additional wing players. Shooting and defense.
Hawks have anywhere from $42-$48 million in capspace. Ideally, any of the FAs are targets Joe Harris, Davis Bertans, Jerami Grant, Malik Beasely, Chris Dunn. I've proposed trades from teams looking to cut salary like from the Kings for Cory Joseph and Bejelica into straight capspace.

It seems that ATL don't have backup PG. Do you think it is not important? I wonder whether finding a comboguard who can shoot, defend and facilitate next to Trae would benefit your team. For instance, I think FVV might be an ideal SG next to Trae. I was surprised that you have not mentioned FVV.

Just to understand, I think that MIN can benefit from such type of comboguard as well. Because DLo is more shooter than slasher. We also dont have backup PG under guaranteed contract. However, 2020 FA market does not impress us with many options.

[jayu70]

Thank you for honest post! One last question: who do you think ATL should target in FA market?

Center is the only position Hawks are set at with Capela, Dedmon and Bruno. So backup PG and PF are most pressing but we also can use additional wing players. Shooting and defense.
Hawks have anywhere from $42-$48 million in capspace. Ideally, any of the FAs are targets Joe Harris, Davis Bertans, Jerami Grant, Malik Beasely, Chris Dunn. I've proposed trades from teams looking to cut salary like from the Kings for Cory Joseph and Bejelica into straight capspace.

It seems that ATL don't have backup PG. Do you think it is not important? I wonder whether finding a comboguard who can shoot, defend and facilitate next to Trae would benefit your team. For instance, I think FVV might be an ideal SG next to Trae. I was surprised that you have not mentioned FVV.

Just to understand, I think that MIN can benefit from such type of comboguard as well. Because DLo is more shooter than slasher. We also dont have backup PG under guaranteed contract. However, 2020 FA market does not impress us with many options.

I noted backup PG and PF as the most pressing above (I guess I only listed Dunn as the FA pg). Haliburton as the potential #6 pick is possible. There is also De'Anthony Melton, Chris Dunn as FAs, we may bring back you ole buddy Jeff Teague, if NYK is looking to move Frank Ntilikina, I would love to get him.

[jayu70]

Thank you for honest post! One last question: who do you think ATL should target in FA market?

Center is the only position Hawks are set at with Capela, Dedmon and Bruno. So backup PG and PF are most pressing but we also can use additional wing players. Shooting and defense.
Hawks have anywhere from $42-$48 million in capspace. Ideally, any of the FAs are targets Joe Harris, Davis Bertans, Jerami Grant, Malik Beasely, Chris Dunn. I've proposed trades from teams looking to cut salary like from the Kings for Cory Joseph and Bejelica into straight capspace.

It seems that ATL don't have backup PG. Do you think it is not important? I wonder whether finding a comboguard who can shoot, defend and facilitate next to Trae would benefit your team. For instance, I think FVV might be an ideal SG next to Trae. I was surprised that you have not mentioned FVV.

Just to understand, I think that MIN can benefit from such type of comboguard as well. Because DLo is more shooter than slasher. We also dont have backup PG under guaranteed contract. However, 2020 FA market does not impress us with many options.

Regarding FVV. He works next to Lowry because Lowry is a bulldog on defense at PG. I don't think it would work as well next to Trae defensively.

[shrink]

What if we did a S&T involving Malik Beasely and Josh Richardson? Not sure what else would need to be included the match the values, but at $10M a year Richardson could be an interesting wing and glue guy for Russel and Towns..

My only worry is that Richardson has a player option after next season and not sure he would exercise it

I like the concept, and I’d love Richardson here. I think he would excel, and really help our perimeter defense. And PHI would probably consider a swap, because they would like a replacement locked in at a economical salary. Richardson will ask for too much money fir PHI to keep him after next season.

The problem is that CBA rules require a team be within the apron ($4 mil above the lux) to do a sign-and-trade, and it hardcaps the team for a year. PHI is in such financial disarray, that I don’t think they sign-and-trades are out.

It’s a shame because the deal makes sense for both teams, if MIN can get Richardson to sign a new contract or extension in Minnesota. Perhaps we could make this a three teamer, where we still get Richardson, but we deal Beasley to a third team who doesn’t care about being hardcapped, and they send their player to PHI?

[shrink]

Jayu, can you rank the following 8 assets?

Trae, Collins, Reddish, Hunter, Heurter, #6 pick, 2021 ATL 1st (unprotected), 2020 #1

And do you see any variation between your order, and the order of the Hawks front office?

[shrink]

This is from last week's Q&A of a Hawks beat writer (Chris Kirschner, The Athletic, ATL):

I know this isn’t a fair comparison, but based on how Cam Reddish performed during his rookie, where would you rank him in this draft?
Really, the only player I would have over him is LaMelo Ball. Dynamic lead guards are so valuable in today’s game, and Ball is going to walk into the league and immediately be one of the top distributors. Out of the wings projected in the lottery, I wouldn’t take Anthony Edwards, the projected top pick, over Reddish. Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro and Devin Vassell are all solid, but I don’t see star potential for them. I still see that in Reddish if he reaches his highest potential outcome.

Just an aside, but I always roll my eyes when I see a “sportswriter” add, “.. if he reaches his highest potential outcome.”

Yeah, a lot of players would be great if they did that. Jarrett Culver would be too - we better not trade him for #2!

The value of a player is based not on their highest potential outcome, but the likelihood that they maximize some of that. It is their expected value that determines their worth, not their highest potential outcome. This is not real analysis when you add that phrase, it’s fan-speak.

[KGdaBom]

This is from last week's Q&A of a Hawks beat writer (Chris Kirschner, The Athletic, ATL):

I know this isn’t a fair comparison, but based on how Cam Reddish performed during his rookie, where would you rank him in this draft?
Really, the only player I would have over him is LaMelo Ball. Dynamic lead guards are so valuable in today’s game, and Ball is going to walk into the league and immediately be one of the top distributors. Out of the wings projected in the lottery, I wouldn’t take Anthony Edwards, the projected top pick, over Reddish. Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro and Devin Vassell are all solid, but I don’t see star potential for them. I still see that in Reddish if he reaches his highest potential outcome.

Just an aside, but I always roll my eyes when I see a “sportswriter” add, “.. if he reaches his highest potential outcome.”

Yeah, a lot of players would be great if they did that. Jarrett Culver would be too - we better not trade him for #2!

The value of a player is based not on their highest potential outcome, but the likelihood that they maximize some of that. It is their expected value that determines their worth, not their highest potential outcome. This is not real analysis when you add that phrase, it’s fan-speak.

Edwards IMO has much more potential than Reddish. No way in hell I would give up #1 for Reddish. Reddish and #6 maybe. Hawks fans on their board have dug in on the greatness of Reddish so no deal to be had there.

[theGreatRC]

Jayu, can you rank the following 8 assets?

Trae, Collins, Reddish, Hunter, Heurter, #6 pick, 2021 ATL 1st (unprotected), 2020 #1

And do you see any variation between your order, and the order of the Hawks front office?

That sounds about right tbh

Trae


Collins

Reddish/Hunter
Huerter/#6

[shangrila]

1. If the Hawks had gotten the top pick, chances are they would have taken him, however being at #6, I don't see them trading up for him (rumor is the NYK wants to move up to #1 using Atlanta as a spring board, the hold up is that Minny wants the NYK 2021 1st and NYK is offering the Mavs 2021 1st). His offense can be special as he is a 3 level scorer, his immediate defense next to Trae is problematic.

Can you elaborate on this rumour? I haven't seen it mentioned before.

I'm guessing something like Atlanta gets 8+27 from NY, we get 6 and a future pick from you/NY respectively and NY lands the 1?

[KGdaBom]

1. If the Hawks had gotten the top pick, chances are they would have taken him, however being at #6, I don't see them trading up for him (rumor is the NYK wants to move up to #1 using Atlanta as a spring board, the hold up is that Minny wants the NYK 2021 1st and NYK is offering the Mavs 2021 1st). His offense can be special as he is a 3 level scorer, his immediate defense next to Trae is problematic.

Can you elaborate on this rumour? I haven't seen it mentioned before.

I'm guessing something like Atlanta gets 8+27 from NY, we get 6 and a future pick from you/NY respectively and NY lands the 1?

Let me see if I understand you correctly. Atlanta would be giving up 6 and a future #1 to get 8 and 27? Sounds like Atlanta is getting totally hosed if they're including a future #1 that is likely to be better than the 27 pick they got for trading back from 6 to 8.

[jayu70]

1. If the Hawks had gotten the top pick, chances are they would have taken him, however being at #6, I don't see them trading up for him (rumor is the NYK wants to move up to #1 using Atlanta as a spring board, the hold up is that Minny wants the NYK 2021 1st and NYK is offering the Mavs 2021 1st). His offense can be special as he is a 3 level scorer, his immediate defense next to Trae is problematic.

Can you elaborate on this rumour? I haven't seen it mentioned before.

I'm guessing something like Atlanta gets 8+27 from NY, we get 6 and a future pick from you/NY respectively and NY lands the 1?

Let me see if I understand you correctly. Atlanta would be giving up 6 and a future #1 to get 8 and 27? Sounds like Atlanta is getting totally hosed if they're including a future #1 that is likely to be better than the 27 pick they got for trading back from 6 to 8.

No.
Atlanta trades #6 to NYK for #8 and #27.
NYK then trade #6 and Dallas 2021 1st to Minny for #1. Minny prefers the NYK 2021 1st in lieu of the Dallas 1st.