How Good is Jimmy Butler?

[TeamMan]

People still get mesmerized by athleticism...all these athletic PGs like Wall, Rose, Westbrook and even Dunn were all thought of as better players than Jimmy. Taller wings who can playmake, shoot(even like Jimmy, Kawhi) are the ones who contribute to winning in the playoffs. Except for Steph who is is a generational shot maker, you can't win without size.

The Bulls f'ed up...plain and simple. He is also an high IQ player. All the best players in the league are wings who can balance out shot making and play making.

Paxson had a messed up vision of team building. He never understood that putting all his chips in playmaking wing talents is the way to go....drafted big guys who are defenders. stiffs etc... Gar had the right idea but was a toxic individual. It was a combination of a clueless, reactionary Pax and a backstabbing Gar which ruined the franchise.

Any average GM would have tanked one year in 2017 with Jimmy and got a high draft pick and signed top free agents to bolster that team. Pax was drunk with power and was measuring everything based on a MJ type for a top option. He thought he had some secret sauce to get the next MJ. That hurt his GMing more than anything because he thought he knew what it takes to build a championship team but was just a reactionary of the latest fad without a clue.

Some people may not know that JB was measured with a 39 in. vertical at the NBA combine. He was also measured at 6-8 for the 1st time. Before he had be listed at 6-7.

He was actually one of the most athletic players coming out of college. The reason that he fell to the end of the 1st round was because he was a junior.

But all of the surprise stats made him an easy pick for Gar/Pax.

The thing that made him an All Star was his BB IQ and his ability to defend players like LaBron.

Jimmy is super smart.

[dice]

I hope we never have to hear how tanking is the way to go by trading away a top 10 player.

Tankers got their wish and they were objectively wrong

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100%. Some ppl are making the case that if we tanked properly, we could've gotten Doncic, or even Trae. But how do you know? We could've gotten Ayton, JJJ or Bagley as well

JJJ > Trae. Trae is one of the top 10 or so offensive players in the league but by most accounts the worst net defensive player in the entire league. 520 out of 520 for players eligible to record RPM last season.

2020 PIPM (pre-bubble):

trae 5.02 offense (3rd in league behind luka and harden), (3.69) defense (worst in league)
JJJ (1.03) offense, 0.15 defense

https://www.bball-index.com/2019-20-impact-metrics/

RPM changed its formula this year to become more of a box score stat

[dice]

People still get mesmerized by athleticism...all these athletic PGs like Wall, Rose, Westbrook and even Dunn were all thought of as better players than Jimmy. Taller wings who can playmake, shoot(even like Jimmy, Kawhi) are the ones who contribute to winning in the playoffs. Except for Steph who is is a generational shot maker, you can't win without size.

The Bulls f'ed up...plain and simple. He is also an high IQ player. All the best players in the league are wings who can balance out shot making and play making.

Paxson had a messed up vision of team building. He never understood that putting all his chips in playmaking wing talents is the way to go....drafted big guys who are defenders. stiffs etc... Gar had the right idea but was a toxic individual. It was a combination of a clueless, reactionary Pax and a backstabbing Gar which ruined the franchise.

Any average GM would have tanked one year in 2017 with Jimmy and got a high draft pick and signed top free agents to bolster that team. Pax was drunk with power and was measuring everything based on a MJ type for a top option. He thought he had some secret sauce to get the next MJ. That hurt his GMing more than anything because he thought he knew what it takes to build a championship team but was just a reactionary of the latest fad without a clue.

Some people may not know that JB was measured with a 39 in. vertical at the NBA combine. He was also measured at 6-8 for the 1st time. Before he had be listed at 6-7.

He was actually one of the most athletic players coming out of college. The reason that he fell to the end of the 1st round was because he was a junior.

But all of the surprise stats made him an easy pick for Gar/Pax.

The thing that made him an All Star was his BB IQ and his ability to defend players like LaBron.

Jimmy is super smart.

jimmy was actually a senior - only played 3 years at marquette, though

tony snell college per 40:

15/4/3/2to/1.1s 57%ts 3.7obpm/1.8dbpm

jimmy:

16/7/2/1to/1.5s 61%ts, senior year 7.2opbm/2.2 dbpm, tougher conference

seems to me the only reason snell was taken higher was that he was a good 3pt shooter on heavy volume and that's the way the league was trending. 2013 mocks for snell:

29 walter football
25 bleacher report
33 hoops habit
15 usa today ("nba teams are desperate for players who can shoot 3-pointers and defend both wing positions. snell is the exemplar in this draft")
46 draft site (had bulls taking giannis)
27 mynbadraft

SB nation, draft express, nba.com, espn, SI, cbs and nbadraft.net all had him out of the first round

[Just_Bullz]

Jimmy is the ultimate blue collar worker who earns his spurs the old fashion way. He has his limits but he makes the best of what he has and turn it golden.

[dice]

cumulative PIPM over past 6 seasons (since jimmy's breakout), along w/ total minutes:

8.11 11913 curry

6.34 12905 cp3
6.05 15053 lebron
5.51 10588 KD
5.48 10780 kawhi
5.45 13343 draymond
5.14 16712 harden
4.81 15303 westbrook
4.57 6181 embiid
4.47 13793 AD

4.38 13369 gobert
4.38 10819 jokic
3.89 15086 giannis
3.69 13693 jordan
3.66 14133 lowry
3.28 12553 PG
3.12 13996 jimmy
3.11 15943 lillard
2.97 9232 cousins
2.76 6939 tatum (and climbing?)

2.7 14934 kemba
2.69 10870 love
2.67 12153 bledsoe
2.64 12928 klay
2.61 6968 siakam
2.6 11725 kyrie
2.58 11493 millsap
2.53 10009 whiteside
2.49 11717 danny
2.47 12307 KAT

2.37 13147 middleton
2.36 10706 griffin
2.35 13240 horford
2.25 10164 conley
2.22 11580 covington
2.14 7362 simmons
2.03 11439 rubio

[PaKii94]

cumulative PIPM over past 6 seasons (since jimmy's breakout), along w/ total minutes:

8.11 11913 curry

6.34 12905 cp3
6.05 15053 lebron
5.51 10588 KD
5.48 10780 kawhi
5.45 13343 draymond
5.14 16712 harden
4.81 15303 westbrook
4.57 6181 embiid
4.47 13793 AD

4.38 13369 gobert
4.38 10819 jokic
3.89 15086 giannis
3.69 13693 jordan
3.66 14133 lowry
3.28 12553 PG
3.12 13996 jimmy
3.11 15943 lillard
2.97 9232 cousins
2.76 6939 tatum (and climbing?)

2.7 14934 kemba
2.69 10870 love
2.67 12153 bledsoe
2.64 12928 klay
2.61 6968 siakam
2.6 11725 kyrie
2.58 11493 millsap
2.53 10009 whiteside
2.49 11717 danny
2.47 12307 KAT

2.37 13147 middleton
2.36 10706 griffin
2.35 13240 horford
2.25 10164 conley
2.22 11580 covington
2.14 7362 simmons
2.03 11439 rubio

Is this a time adjusted metric? What did it look like for his bulls years after the breakout? It would be interesting to see where he was at when he was traded. I feel like the rest of the league passed him a bit when he was jumping around (most of the guys above him were given #1 looks and options while he was stuck between Wiggins/kat and then simmons/embiid/harris

[Ice Man]

PIPM, eh? Looks like even more of a black box than RPM, which is saying a lot. The results look credible, though.

[dougthonus]

the miami heat have built a finals-contending roster around jimmy butler almost entirely with players they acquired after we traded jimmy butler. they did not have any outstanding assets; they were just smart.

we could have pursued the same strategy. instead we signed two overpriced players who did not fit next to jimmy butler and immediately hit the reboot button the next season.

Jimmy would have flipped his ****, but the best thing to do in 2016 was to go no longer than 1 year on anyone and try again in 2017 even if we ended up with no one in 2016. 2016 was just a crap FA year.

Kudos to Miami for also getting some Nunn, Robinson, and Herro with relatively little assets. If we just got those guys with minimal assets instead of the crap guys we got with scrap assets then we'd also be much better off even with the existing roster.

[Hold That]

It’s all Pat Riley and Coach Spo.

When you look at Riley’s personality and Jimmy’s. It’s like he’s Riley’s long lost son. Both of those guys are hard nosed blue collared with a little bit of flash and brashness about them.

This is the first time in Butlers career where he’s felt like the franchise darling amongst the front office and coaching staff. He thought he was that in Chicago, but obviously not.

He wasn’t that in Minny with towns there and he knew he wouldn’t be that in Philly with simmons and embiid. You can tell Jimmy is motivated to put on that Heat jersey. You can see him playing harder for an organization from top to bottom, love everything about him.

[drosereturn]

the miami heat have built a finals-contending roster around jimmy butler almost entirely with players they acquired after we traded jimmy butler. they did not have any outstanding assets; they were just smart.

we could have pursued the same strategy. instead we signed two overpriced players who did not fit next to jimmy butler and immediately hit the reboot button the next season.

Jimmy would have flipped his ****, but the best thing to do in 2016 was to go no longer than 1 year on anyone and try again in 2017 even if we ended up with no one in 2016. 2016 was just a crap FA year.

Kudos to Miami for also getting some Nunn, Robinson, and Herro with relatively little assets. If we just got those guys with minimal assets instead of the crap guys we got with scrap assets then we'd also be much better off even with the existing roster.

Nunn, Robinson, Herro arent easily acquirable tho. Miami obviously invested a lot of time acquiring these guys and shipped out fools gold Winslow while keeping key role players in Olynk, Dragic, The Bulls never had this amt of depths in any recent yrs and its going to take at least 5 yrs to reach where Miami is at. Simply drafting one good guy isnt going to cut it. Not only hit at draft but also two way contracts instead of handing out contracts to the next Felicio, Dunn and get complacent. im talking abt 2roy candidates in a single yr to make up lack of power trades and fa where they always suck.
Also, even if you bring in great young talent, you need patience and give them playing time. Herro, Nunn perfectly complemented with their guard lineup whereas the Bulls would be in trouble with their wacky roster comp.

[TeamMan]

the miami heat have built a finals-contending roster around jimmy butler almost entirely with players they acquired after we traded jimmy butler. they did not have any outstanding assets; they were just smart.

we could have pursued the same strategy. instead we signed two overpriced players who did not fit next to jimmy butler and immediately hit the reboot button the next season.

Basically, Gar/Pax had painted themselves into a corner.

They had put together the "3-Alphas" and had killed the cap flexibility to do it. That was why they couldn't do what the Heat did.

Remember, after JB was traded they bought out Wade.

So, they made the 3 players that had come over from the T-Wolves
the Bulls future.

And that was the beginning of the end.

With all of this said, IMO the best chance that the new FO has to follow the Heat model is to trade OPJ for an All Star level player.

In that regard they could also work as a facilitator in the same type of trade and load up on some draft picks, try to complete the build through the draft and plan to get that All Star player sometime later.

[Mech Engineer]

the miami heat have built a finals-contending roster around jimmy butler almost entirely with players they acquired after we traded jimmy butler. they did not have any outstanding assets; they were just smart.

we could have pursued the same strategy. instead we signed two overpriced players who did not fit next to jimmy butler and immediately hit the reboot button the next season.

Basically, Gar/Pax had painted themselves into a corner.

They had put together the "3-Alphas" and had killed the cap flexibility to do it. That was why they couldn't do what the Heat did.

Remember, after JB was traded they bought out Wade.

So, they made the 3 players that had come over from the T-Wolves
the Bulls future.

And that was the beginning of the end.

With all of this said, IMO the best chance that the new FO has to follow the Heat model is to trade OPJ for an All Star level player.

In that regard they could also work as a facilitator in the same type of trade and load up on some draft picks, try to complete the build through the draft and plan to get that All Star player sometime later.

Whoever coined the term '3 Alphas' to include a 35 year old Wade and Rondo

[dice]

cumulative PIPM over past 6 seasons (since jimmy's breakout), along w/ total minutes:

8.11 11913 curry

6.34 12905 cp3
6.05 15053 lebron
5.51 10588 KD
5.48 10780 kawhi
5.45 13343 draymond
5.14 16712 harden
4.81 15303 westbrook
4.57 6181 embiid
4.47 13793 AD

4.38 13369 gobert
4.38 10819 jokic
3.89 15086 giannis
3.69 13693 jordan
3.66 14133 lowry
3.28 12553 PG
3.12 13996 jimmy
3.11 15943 lillard
2.97 9232 cousins
2.76 6939 tatum (and climbing?)

2.7 14934 kemba
2.69 10870 love
2.67 12153 bledsoe
2.64 12928 klay
2.61 6968 siakam
2.6 11725 kyrie
2.58 11493 millsap
2.53 10009 whiteside
2.49 11717 danny
2.47 12307 KAT

2.37 13147 middleton
2.36 10706 griffin
2.35 13240 horford
2.25 10164 conley
2.22 11580 covington
2.14 7362 simmons
2.03 11439 rubio

Is this a time adjusted metric? What did it look like for his bulls years after the breakout? It would be interesting to see where he was at when he was traded. I feel like the rest of the league passed him a bit when he was jumping around (most of the guys above him were given #1 looks and options while he was stuck between Wiggins/kat and then simmons/embiid/harris

given that it's an adjusted plus/minus using play-by-play data rather than box scores, it requires large sample sizes for the data to "settle." thus it's not a particularly good judge of a player for a single season. but it's about as good as it gets for the longer-term. RPM decided to change their formula to produce more credible single-season results, muting the defensive portion of the data in the process. anyway, here are jimmy's season-by-season:

'14 2.44
'15 2.43
'16 1.55
'17 4.78
'18 4.38
'19 1.98
'20 3.54 (pre-bubble)

https://www.bball-index.com/current-pipm/

previous seasons in the 'free data and tools' dropdown box in the upper right

[Am2626]

His competitive spirit and drive to become great is, dare I say, Jordanesque. And GarPax chose Hoiberg over him.

Only the Bulls, only the Bulls...

Exactly...that plus his ability to understood the tempo of the game is invaluable. Rose never could do that.

Jimmy might not be the most talented, athletic player on the floor but he has that knack of when to use his teammates and when to do it himself. That's a skill very few stars have.

The Bulls could have easily paired him with another high end all star and probably got another Allstar type in the draft or traded for one. They missed a golden opportunity they had in their hands by foolishly chasing after delusional, imaginary super teams.

Rose was 21 and in my opinion wasn’t even in his prime when he got hurt. Based on how successful he was until he tore his ACL there is nothing suggesting Rose could not have been that Franchise Player. He dominated and took over games at such a young age. I think people forget how special he was. What would have been great to see is what a prime Rose and Butler could have done together.

[transplant]

Butler is now officially an absolute stud. Feel free to bash Paxson if you like, but he's dead now. People, and players, grow through their experiences. Butler's on his 4th team in 4 seasons and clearly looks like he's found a home. Good on ya, Jimmy.

[TeamMan]

Butler is now officially an absolute stud. Fell free to bash Paxson if you like, but he's dead now. People, and players, grow through their experiences. Butler's on his 4th team in 4 seasons and clearly looks like he's found a home. Good on ya, Jimmy.

The Heat is a winning organization.

I'm sure that many players around the league gave JB the advice that he couldn't go wrong with them.

[Mbrahv0528]

He became a headcase getting shopped around from team to team, but DAMN! He's the heart and soul of the heart, and the biggest reason that the East's best team is down 0-3. Miami is literally going to win what should be an unwinnable series against the League's MVP and DPOY.

A head case? Uh, no?

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[NZB2323]

He’s better than Khris Dunn, Zach Lavine, Lauri Markkannen, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Ben Simmons, and Embiid.

[patryk7754]

I can comfortably say he's a superstar.

1. He's a true leader. I think its clear now that it wasn't Butler that was the issue on his previous teams it was the team. Each team he leaves gets significantly worse.
2. His game translates to wins in the Playoffs. I don't care about regular season stats. There are plenty of guys who are considered top 10 to 15 who don't win in the playoffs. Russ, PG, and Embiid come to mind. And I think you can say that about Giannis to an extent. And I really like those guys and Russ and PG are two of my favorite players (but Russ has been embarrassing me the past couple seasons). I think there's a handful of guys you can point to and say they create wins in the playoffs for their teams; LeBron, Davis, Kawhi, KD, Steph, Jokic, Thompson, and there may be a couple of guys I'm not thinking of. I think Butler has officially forced his way into that group. Took minny to the playoffs, was a travel call away from the ECF and probably make it to the finals if they beat the 76ers beat the Raptors, and this year probably leads his team to the finals.

3. One of very few that can lead a game in scoring and absolutely dominate on defense.

4. Few players care about winning the way he does and it shows.

[patryk7754]

He became a headcase getting shopped around from team to team, but DAMN! He's the heart and soul of the heart, and the biggest reason that the East's best team is down 0-3. Miami is literally going to win what should be an unwinnable series against the League's MVP and DPOY.

A head case? Uh, no?

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Idk how this is still the narrative. The bulls FO was soft. the Players in Minny were soft (other than Rose). In Philly, there really wasn't an issue. They incorrectly chose Harris' offense over Jimmy. He did call out the coaching but it seemed like the media made it a bigger issue than it was and he clearly got along with his teammates.

But I guess kobe was a head case too when Smush parker was his starting PG