Trade Talk (Part Four)

[shrink]

Finally, if we are going to disregard information because it was posted by fans, then every thread at RealGM is worthless.

Most fans operate as doing what they would do if running a team, not how they believe the actual front office will run things.

You are correct. In the last couple weeks, I have been very explicit in a few threads, saying I want to know what they think THEIR GM will do, NOT WHAT THEY WOULD DO IF THEY WERE GM.

Many simply ignore it, I get posts full of “I would.” I think this especially true in draft threads, but the trade board is always filled with posters saying, “my team would never do that!” The truth is more like, “with my narrow view of the situation, the owners money of no concern of mine, and no risk I’d lose my million dollar GM job, I would never do that if I was GM”

As an aside, I have great admiration for the Bucks posters from 2010-18. At that time had a bad front office, that would make bad decisions. They would be very explicit about what they thought would happen, and what they would do, and they did it all with a good sense of humor.

[Jedzz]

Finally, if we are going to disregard information because it was posted by fans, then every thread at RealGM is worthless.

Most fans operate as doing what they would do if running a team, not how they believe the actual front office will run things.

You are correct. In the last couple weeks, I have been very explicit in a few threads, saying I want to know what they think THEIR GM will do, NOT WHAT THEY WOULD DO IF THEY WERE GM.

Many simply ignore it, I get posts full of “I would.” I think this especially true in draft threads, but the trade board is always filled with posters saying, “my team would never do that!” The truth is more like, “with my narrow view of the situation, the owners money of no concern of mine, and no risk I’d lose my million dollar GM job, I would never do that if I was GM”

As an aside, I have great admiration for the Bucks posters from 2010-18. At that time had a bad front office, that would make bad decisions. They would be very explicit about what they thought would happen, and what they would do, and they did it all with a good sense of humor.

I'm not really sure what all this is about. Is this two guys trying to say which one has a better pulse on what the team would do, while claiming that's what their posts are always about. Also that this is how things always should be posted from what the team would do perspective?

I hope not, because we can quickly bring up the Dlo reality if needed. Not a lot of humor was shared by all with that move. Personal opinions flew on that one for example. The team obviously doesn't always make the best financial moves either, as evidenced by the Wiggins maxing. Unless of course you believe the Wiggins maxing is what gave them the opportunity to bring in Dlo. But then of course you would have to close your eyes to all the lost revenue from the losses that Wiggins baseically forved this team into since that extension, not only the actual losses but also including the loss of Butler and all the wins and money that might have meant had he stayed.

Personally I believe it's sometimes easier to focus on what the team will likely do. Sometimes that's the important angle. Yet other times, often for me, the more interesting posts to me are what individuals outside the team would do in their own opinions. And no, the teams obviously don't just do that which makes the most financial sense or even make the most team improvement sense. They just get things wrong all the time in our eyes because they are just normal people that both screw things up sometimes and other times maybe they just have different priorities than we do at that time.

What would you two think about the Team being interested in the recent realGM news post about OKC being possibly already thinking about moving Chris Paul?

[wolves_89]

I think you guys may be over-estimating our trade position here. If we moves from #1 to #2, that has value, but both trade partners would point out that it costs us nothing if NYK is getting pick to draft Ball. I am doing a poll over on the Trade Board, and they are one of the only teams that would take him first. Whether we kept the pick or traded it, getting Edwards or Wiseman at the #2 still keeps all our options open. We can easily be cut out of this deal, if NYK thinks they can just deal for the #2 and still get Ball.

Our position improves dramatically. For us,

#2 = #1. (for us)
2021 MIN 1st >> #17, #33, Spellman
TPE (cap space) >> James Johnson

If Rosas is confident about what the Knicks would pay for Ball he could draft him and work out a deal shortly after the fact. Of course, that requires Rosas to be willing to keep Ball if a deal can't be worked out.

[NYG]

Wolves draft night...

Trade 1 (The Tatum/Fultz - Luka/Trae)

Bulls get:
1st Overall Draft Pick (LaMelo Ball)

Timberwolves get:
4th Overall Draft Pick (Deni Avdija)
Top 5 Protected 2021 Chicago Bulls First Round Draft Pick

===

Trade 2

Magic get:
James Johnson
10th Overall Draft Pick

Suns get:
Aaron Gordon
17th Overall Draft Pick

Timberwolves get:
Kelly Oubre

[wesleyt95]

Beasley S&T, Johnson & 33 for Gordon Hayward, draft Edwards & pf

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

[Neeva]

Beasley S&T, Johnson & 33 for Gordon Hayward, draft Edwards & pf

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app

Don’t think wolves can take Hayward and stay under the tax, doubt new owners will be looking to pay.

[minimus]

Handful of teams actively zeroing in on Bulls’ Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr.

Trade with CHI:
Out: #1, #17, #33, Spellman, Evans, Nowell
In: #4, Wendell Carter Jr, 2021 CHI FRP (top5 protected)

Why for MIN: get Hayes, get starting wing next year draft, get Wendell Jr, who looks like a younger version of Al Horford with his 9'1" standing reach, 7'4.5" wingspan, and 251lbs frame.
Why for CHI: get Wiseman or Ball. both might fit well in CHI.


Draft Hayes. Re-sign Beasley, Jmac, Kelan Martin (1+3). Sign Jae Crowder to full MLE.

KAT/Reid/Carter Jr
Carter Jr/Layman/Vanderbilt + JJ (trade block)
Culver/Crowder/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/DLo
DLo/Hayes/JMac

[Jedzz]

Handful of teams actively zeroing in on Bulls’ Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr.

Trade with CHI:
Out: #1, #17, #33, Spellman, Evans, Nowell
In: #4, Wendell Carter Jr, 2021 CHI FRP (top5 protected)

Why for MIN: get Hayes, get starting wing next year draft, get Wendell Jr, who looks like a younger version of Al Horford with his 9'1" standing reach, 7'4.5" wingspan, and 251lbs frame.
Why for CHI: get Wiseman or Ball. both might fit well in CHI.


Draft Hayes. Re-sign Beasley, Jmac, Kelan Martin (1+3). Sign Jae Crowder to full MLE.

KAT/Reid/Carter Jr
Carter Jr/Layman/Vanderbilt + JJ (trade block)
Culver/Crowder/Martin
Beasley/Okogie/DLo
DLo/Hayes/JMac

Culver listed as starter ahead of Crowder.
Hernangomez apparently not resigned. (I see this as unlikely unless he gets big offer elsewhere)

The Crowder move works towards the teams biggest weakness which is improving on offensive capability of Okogie/Culver minutes that were used at SF. Maybe even defense. So this makes sense anyway. Suggesting starting Culver still just seems obtuse to me. Suggesting Hayes leaps JMac is the now typical mistake I will be arguing against until I'm blue in the face. He won't be resigned if that is the plan. Trading all those picks and assets for another big doesn't seem like Rosas goals. However sliding down to 4 and gaining a future frp does seem like a good plan.

[shrink]

With so much talk about trading the #1, I thought I’d bring this over

Incidentally, while everyone focuses on the predictions that the 2021 draft will be great, there are four factors that reduce the value of a pick from any future draft

1. Accuracy of Predicting. We are asking experts to project how high school kids will do in the NBA. As Texas Chuck pointed out, Shabazz Mohammed was predicted to be a sure fire star.

2. Predicting a Teams Final Record. Last year at this time, did anyone know GSW would have the worst record? Did anyone predict #2-5 would be only one win apart? Remember when we all though the Kings pick that BOS had was incredibly valuable?

3. Lottery. Even if you knew which high school prospects would be stars, and a magic genie told you the final standings, you would need another genie to tell you who wins the lottery. The top 4 selections usually contain the most likely players to become stars, so winning the new, flatter, lottery is critical.

4. Time. Having to wait for an asset reduces it’s value — and not just in banks. Using the Knicks example, they could start hyping LaMelo to fans tomorrow after a trade, and start selling merchandise and raising season ticket prices. Or they can say, “Please buy a poster of our lightly protected 2021 pick.”

I am not trying to say that the value of the the top players in 2020 is always better than 2021. I am saying that people that have heard that the 2021 draft is better, and extrapolate that individual players in 2020 are not worth 2021 picks, are going too far, and neglecting several pretty significant factors.

[shrink]

Beasley S&T, Johnson & 33 for Gordon Hayward, draft Edwards & pf

I don’t hate the concept, but the CBA hurts you here.

First, sign and trades happen after draft night, so combining a sign and trade with a pick won’t work.

Second, any team that trades for a sign-and-trade player will instantly hard cap themselves, and can’t make any transaction that would push them over the apron ($6 mil over the luxury threshold). Contenders, even the ones that are far enough under the lux right now to do the deal, usually don’t want to hamstring themselves for a full year.

[shrink]

Bulls get: 1st Overall Draft Pick (LaMelo Ball)
Timberwolves get: 4th Overall Draft Pick (Deni Avdija), Top 5 Protected 2021 Chicago Bulls First Round Draft Pick

Trade with CHI:
Out: #1, #17, #33, Spellman, Evans, Nowell
In: #4, Wendell Carter Jr, 2021 CHI FRP (top5 protected)

Good proposals. For me right now, the trade value to go from #4 to #1 lies somewhere between these two positions. I think there is a serious difference in the upside between #1 .. maybe the top 3, and the #4. The protections on the bulls pick really limit the upside in 2021 in both proposals.

In the other trade, I think MIN’s side is a bit insufficient but close. If we did this deal, I would ask GSW what they would offer for this package - WCJ could be very valuable to them.

[minimus]

Bulls get: 1st Overall Draft Pick (LaMelo Ball)
Timberwolves get: 4th Overall Draft Pick (Deni Avdija), Top 5 Protected 2021 Chicago Bulls First Round Draft Pick

Trade with CHI:
Out: #1, #17, #33, Spellman, Evans, Nowell
In: #4, Wendell Carter Jr, 2021 CHI FRP (top5 protected)

Good proposals. For me right now, the trade value to go from #4 to #1 lies somewhere between these two positions. I think there is a serious difference in the upside between #1 .. maybe the top 3, and the #4. The protections on the bulls pick really limit the upside in 2021 in both proposals.

In the other trade, I think MIN’s side is a bit insufficient but close. If we did this deal, I would ask GSW what they would offer for this package - WCJ could be very valuable to them.

I'd do it if we can see higher potential in Hayes or Avdija than in Ball, Edwards or Wiseman.

[Wolveswin]

What about the concept of taking on Horford — wait for it — in return for maximizing value back in return.

So here is the concept.

76ers Give: Horford + Thybulle* + #21 (possible Future 1st)
76ers Get: Johnson + Evans + ________

3rd Team Gives: Draft Pick or Youth Wolves Want
3rd Team Gets: Culver + #17 + #21 (maybe Thybulle and/or Future 76ers 1st)

Wolves Give: Culver + Johnson + Evans + #17
Wolves Get: Horford + Thybulle (maybe) + 3rd Team Asset(s)

Soooooo many different trade scenarios that can be laid out. But the concept is, absorbing Horford and his fit next to Towns (starting vet PF and backup big), for value. Wolves aren’t going to be free agent players, can they stay under tax and maximize value (and production) for Horford?

[Wolveswin]

What about the concept of taking on Horford — wait for it — in return for maximizing value back in return.

So here is the concept.

76ers Give: Horford + Thybulle* + #21 (possible Future 1st)
76ers Get: Johnson + Evans + ________

3rd Team Gives: Draft Pick or Youth Wolves Want
3rd Team Gets: Culver + #17 + #21 (maybe Thybulle and/or Future 76ers 1st)

Wolves Give: Culver + Johnson + Evans + #17
Wolves Get: Horford + Thybulle (maybe) + 3rd Team Asset(s)

Soooooo many different trade scenarios that can be laid out. But the concept is, absorbing Horford and his fit next to Towns (starting vet PF and backup big), for value. Wolves aren’t going to be free agent players, can they stay under tax and maximize value (and production) for Horford?

To put an example to this, I am going with Detroit. They have a need for quantity youth infusion.

76ers Give: Horford + Thybulle + #21 (possible Future 1st)
76ers Get: Johnson + Rose

Pistons Give: #7 + Rose
Pistons Get: Culver + Spellman or Evans + #17 + #21 (maybe future 76ers 1st)

Wolves Give: Culver + Johnson + Spellman or Evans + #17
Wolves Get: Horford + Thybulle + #7

Towns | Horford | Reid
Horford | Hernangomez?
Thybulle | Layman
Beasley | Okogie
Russell

Plus Rosas draft who he wants with #1 (or trade back) and BPA at #7.

[Baseline81]

What about the concept of taking on Horford — wait for it — in return for maximizing value back in return.

So here is the concept.

76ers Give: Horford + Thybulle* + #21 (possible Future 1st)
76ers Get: Johnson + Evans + ________

3rd Team Gives: Draft Pick or Youth Wolves Want
3rd Team Gets: Culver + #17 + #21 (maybe Thybulle and/or Future 76ers 1st)

Wolves Give: Culver + Johnson + Evans + #17
Wolves Get: Horford + Thybulle (maybe) + 3rd Team Asset(s)

Soooooo many different trade scenarios that can be laid out. But the concept is, absorbing Horford and his fit next to Towns (starting vet PF and backup big), for value. Wolves aren’t going to be free agent players, can they stay under tax and maximize value (and production) for Horford?

I appreciate the effort here, but no to Horford and his contract.

[Klomp]

A thought....maybe any Johnson trade would wait until well after the draft if the plan is to use it with the pick (or more accurately whoever is chosen with the pick). It would allow Rosas to use another high-priced asset in a deal, at roughly $10 million, increasing the amount that can come back in a deal.

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[old school 34]

Wolves draft night...

Trade 1 (The Tatum/Fultz - Luka/Trae)

Bulls get:
1st Overall Draft Pick (LaMelo Ball)

Timberwolves get:
4th Overall Draft Pick (Deni Avdija)
Top 5 Protected 2021 Chicago Bulls First Round Draft Pick

===

Trade 2

Magic get:
James Johnson
10th Overall Draft Pick

Suns get:
Aaron Gordon
17th Overall Draft Pick

Timberwolves get:
Kelly Oubre

I prefer the trade down scenarios with GSW & NY....staying in that 2nd spot...as I'm still not convinced a guy like Deni has the upside of the others...better fit...but I'd want to be convinced of the upside...as I don't think the other parts make up the difference?

Any deal that includes us getting Oubre...I'm okay with...seems like a Rosas type of gamble.

Someone smarter than me...in an Oubre trade...do we automatically gain his bird rights? I believe so & with our cap situation & him being an expiring...we need them obviously. But also feel that Oubre could very much be like DLo &/or Beasley...hey, just give me a team that's going to give me a real opportunity and I'll stay?

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

[old school 34]

I think you guys may be over-estimating our trade position here. If we moves from #1 to #2, that has value, but both trade partners would point out that it costs us nothing if NYK is getting pick to draft Ball. I am doing a poll over on the Trade Board, and they are one of the only teams that would take him first. Whether we kept the pick or traded it, getting Edwards or Wiseman at the #2 still keeps all our options open. We can easily be cut out of this deal, if NYK thinks they can just deal for the #2 and still get Ball.

Our position improves dramatically. For us,

#2 = #1. (for us)
2021 MIN 1st >> #17, #33, Spellman
TPE (cap space) >> James Johnson

I like the potential possibilities around a deal between us/GSW/NY a lot. And while we give some added assets up in this deal...it's really about paying to get our future pick back...which there's going to be significant value on to get that back.....you asked earlier does the GSW 2 or our future pick hold more value....I feel around the league...our pick would be much greater asset.

Back to this specific variation of the deal....if Thibs has any say & not sure if he does &/or GM would do that to him right out of the gate? But gotta think Thibs wants no part of Wigs part 2?

Sent from my SM-G973U using RealGM mobile app

[shrink]

I think you guys may be over-estimating our trade position here. If we moves from #1 to #2, that has value, but both trade partners would point out that it costs us nothing if NYK is getting pick to draft Ball. I am doing a poll over on the Trade Board, and they are one of the only teams that would take him first. Whether we kept the pick or traded it, getting Edwards or Wiseman at the #2 still keeps all our options open. We can easily be cut out of this deal, if NYK thinks they can just deal for the #2 and still get Ball.

Our position improves dramatically. For us,

#2 = #1. (for us)
2021 MIN 1st >> #17, #33, Spellman
TPE (cap space) >> James Johnson

I like the potential possibilities around a deal between us/GSW/NY a lot. And while we give some added assets up in this deal...it's really about paying to get our future pick back...which there's going to be significant value on to get that back.....you asked earlier does the GSW 2 or our future pick hold more value....I feel around the league...our pick would be much greater asset.

Back to this specific variation of the deal....if Thibs has any say & not sure if he does &/or GM would do that to him right out of the gate? But gotta think Thibs wants no part of Wigs part 2?

Good point. I will say that eight months ago, Wiggins changed agents and went to CAA, Leon Rose’s old agency, And when Rose got the job, he hired Thibs, another CAA client. I can understand Thibs not wanting to reunite with Andrew, but Rose may realize he’s getting nice assets for adding him as a tank commander.