2020 Draft

[Ruzious]

Maxey's a bit of a conundrum. He's more talented than his backcourt mate, Quickley, but Quickley had better stats. No doubt - I think Maxey is the better prospect, but he's not the kind of player I'd target.

[doclinkin]

Draft philosophy-wise I traditionally have looked at overlooked players who have shown a track record of development in the NCAA. This means I'll miss the hypertalents at the top of the board. Yes there are standout years where you can't help but see a great talent, however occasionally the elite talents at the top of the draft flame out. It means that I'm commonly looking at over looked players late in the draft. BUT. In recent years I read papers suggesting that you get the greatest improvement out of players who are productive early. If they are good while young they will get extra good later. So it had me refocus to see what I could find from young players. Last year for instance this pointed me towards Keldon Johnson, Tyler Herro

This year the young productive players that jump out at me statistically are:
Okongwu of course. But also:

Isaiah Stewart -- beast. Whoever picks him is getting a lion cub. He feasts in the paint right now but his near 80% FT shooting suggests he might add range to his shot.

Tyrell Terry -- if people are liking Killian Hayes for his precocious BBIQ. consider looking at Stanford's young PG Tyrell Terry with a discount pick lower down.

I like a small school gamer in Tanner Holden, but he will stay in school and develop I expect, though Wright State is apparently having some issues staying a D1 school, I dunno. Hard to tell with the small school players, but I like his game.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, Tyrell Terry is someone I overlooked until recently. He's a great shooter with deep range and has a lot of similarities to Lillard - not as good as Lillard - but that style of player. Also, I think he's a little bigger than the 6'1 160 lbs that he's listed at. I'd still much prefer Hayes, but I concur that trading down for Terry makes a lot of sense.

No doubt that Steward is a man's man - built like a brick wall. I just question if he fits into today's game even if he does show some perimeter shooting ability. He probably plays center in the NBA, and he's not a rim protector, imo. No doubt he'll rebound and flex his muscles.

[prime1time]

If we leave the draft with Vassell I'd be happy. Length, 3 point shooting and a demeanor that lets you know he's committed to not just being a 3 and D guy. Ball handling needs time but it can improve. He won't be a star, but in 4 years I see him being the prototypical do it all wing player. Put the ball on the floor, shoot the 3, and defend. His playmaking in college is non-existent though.

[doclinkin]

Yeah, Tyrell Terry is someone I overlooked until recently. He's a great shooter with deep range and has a lot of similarities to Lillard - not as good as Lillard - but that style of player. Also, I think he's a little bigger than the 6'1 160 lbs that he's listed at. I'd still much prefer Hayes, but I concur that trading down for Terry makes a lot of sense.

No doubt that Steward is a man's man - built like a brick wall. I just question if he fits into today's game even if he does show some perimeter shooting ability. He probably plays center in the NBA, and he's not a rim protector, imo. No doubt he'll rebound and flex his muscles.

I'd add Precious Achiuwa to the freshman monsters. His FT% is low, though he shot nearly 33% from 3, (granted, on few attempts, wide open). Still his defensive numbers as a raw player standout pretty starkly. He will go higher though than Stewart, who is mocked well further down the draft. I can see how he will have a positive effect guarding the skilled bigs who now daunt teams. His measurements are going to be remarkable, those arms go on forever. He is nimble for a big, makes smart and instinctive defensive decisions even while the rest of his game seems underdeveloped. Sets screens as solid as a concrete bunker. We can see how players like Bam in Miami have a significant effect stifling what teams want to send their way. This kid has the raw tools to have a similar game.

The point here though is not what the player is right now, but how far they can develop. The younger the player shows promise the stats show the higher their potential throughout their career. Freshmen who are carrying a heavy load and bearing up well are the sort of players who become allstars later in their career. This is where you find surprises late in the draft, where teams kick themselves later. Some of it is looking at upside, how raw is the player putting up those numbers, and do they have room to develop? A guy like Vernon Carey put up remarkably solid numbers, but with a groundbound polished game that itself does not look like it needs to improve. He will be a solid functional pro, and likely a bargain for the team who selects him considering how late he is mocked. But where are the holes in his game that he can likely develop? He can add range on his shot, slim up a bit in training to get a bit more speed, but I'm not sure he can add much laterality and hops. He doesn't have top of the backboard reach. Compared with a guy like Achiuwa who is putting up comparable numbers while being fairly unpolished, you figure his top end may be higher. That's why he is in the lottery.

In the case of Isaiah Stewart (mocked in the 20's) --he led all freshmen bigs in Free Throw Attempts per game, understandable since he had a usage rate of about 25%. As a freshman he was responsible for about a quarter of his teams possessions, and in fact played more minutes than any other freshman. Teams knew they had to load up to stop him. He worked at both ends, defensively he is among the freshman leaders in rebounding, and you may doubt if he is a rim protector, but on a team that was 3rd in the nation in blocks, he was the top shot blocker on the team. He carried a 7% block percent (freshman Okongwu carried 9.8, plus many steals, but he is in the lotto for a reason). Yes Stewart's game is incomplete. That is some of the point of the exercise. How do you ID a player who is both successful, and has upside beyond their success. Room to grow. His usage at a precocious age made me intrigued. Footwork is advanced in the post. Jumper off the dribble and catch & shoot shows decent touch already with room for improvement in his form. Hands are soft for a big. Reads and cuts are smart. Athletically, in more than a few cases he would rebound the ball then take off and beat both teams down the court to finish at the other end. That's not just high motor, but long strides and powerful legs. After big plays at either end he bounces up then takes off running. High energy Bigs are rare. If a guy loves the game and plays with that much excitement, he's going to carry that same energy to the weight room, etc.

And as big and strong as he naturally is, he still has room to grow. Plus, durability is a talent. It speaks to capacity for work. That includes in the training room as well as on court. Here is a solid solid solid kid who did not miss a game, playing more minutes per game than any of his teammates. I'm saying if we miss on Okongwu, and decide to trade off that #9 spot, I'd be pretty damn happy if we landed an upside player like the big Huskie.

[doclinkin]

But yeah. Tyrell Terry. He's one of those unnaturally poised freshmen. The sort of player who thinks the game better than you. Plays both teams at once. He's small, but manages to defend with anticipation and positioning. A game manager with a three point shot and shifty moves to get himself open. Has all the change of pace gears except the top end. Reminds me of a guy like Steve Nash, though in this small ball Stef Curry era little guys look to take the shot, not just pass. Still, he seems unhurried and like he knows where he's going, even when things are moving fast. Starting PG as a freshman on a winning team with a pretty tough strength of schedule, with a high usage rate (like Stewart he's responsible for 1/4 of his teams possessions) all speak to his advanced game. He's going to be pretty good on any team that can afford to play a small PG on the back line. If we did get picks later down I'd lvoe to have him as an understudy to Ish (/Shabazz if we keep him).

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Yeah, Tyrell Terry is someone I overlooked until recently. He's a great shooter with deep range and has a lot of similarities to Lillard - not as good as Lillard - but that style of player. Also, I think he's a little bigger than the 6'1 160 lbs that he's listed at. I'd still much prefer Hayes, but I concur that trading down for Terry makes a lot of sense.

No doubt that Steward is a man's man - built like a brick wall. I just question if he fits into today's game even if he does show some perimeter shooting ability. He probably plays center in the NBA, and he's not a rim protector, imo. No doubt he'll rebound and flex his muscles.

FWIW, Stewart’s offensive game reminds me of Antawn’s.

Crafty, uses changed angles on his shot release to get shots up without having to elevate. Jamison was a low post guy in college too.

Would we be happy with Antawn 2.0 in today’s game?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As a 6'-9" center, do you think Okongwu is undersized for the position?

In the same way that Ben Wallace was and Bam Adebayo is. Okongwu isn't quite as explosive as either of them, but he has somewhat similar attributes.

He's one of two guys I want them to draft more than Jalen Smith.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Spurs like Saddiq Bey... watch them take him and turn him into something more than what he's projected to be.

He's 6'8 with a handle, jumpshot, a positive ast/to ratio, and he's a solid defender. He's definitely a great piece of clay for someone like Pop.

Sorry, but Bey is very mediocre. While a very good shooter from 3 with a high IQ for spacing and team defense, he cannot create for himself or others, he lacks burst and doesnt offset that with high level coordination. He is old for his class, doesnt draw fouls, rebound, or show high level defense.

I get it... he has a high floor as a plug and play 3 & D wing (though the "D" portion is average), but you CANNOT take him over Nesmith, Tyler Bey, Vassell, Poku, or Okoro.

Vassell, to me, distinguishes himself as the best perimeter defender in the draft (Yes, he is a better defender than Okoro... anyone that states otherwise is simply looking at there tools and projecting into the future). He has a lot of Otto / Mikal Bridges to his game and seems like one of the few player with a high floor along with some growth potential.

Poku is the wild card. His age and IQ is simply off the charts and he has some statistical markers that are VERY reliable in projecting players:
STOCKS (Steals + Blocks): His ability to gather blocks and steals while keeping his fouls low is incredibly impressive.
AST:TOV: 2.5:1 Ratio also shows a player that sees the floor while not taking unnecessary risk.
FT%: 78% FT shooter for a 7'1 18 y/o shows a ton of projection as a shooter.
Reb: 12.2 Rbd/36 shows that he doesn't just float around on the perimeter and he has a high IQ. I.E. He reads the ball well

Looking at the tape will only double down on what the stats show. His hips/feet as quick on both sides of the court. Offensively, he moves very well and gets his feet set very quickly when in C&S situations.

Basically, he is Bonga, but with more offensive upside... And if you've been watching Bonga this last year, you know how players like that directly lead to winning.

I agree. I posted on Vassell back right before the season was called off due to Covid19. I just went by the numbers he put up at Florida State. "Vu-Sell" Might go as high as #6

Here's a video profile on YT

Watch on YouTube

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Where do you project Pokusevski to go? I'm not asking where you think he should go -- but where he is most likely to go.

He should go in the 8-12 range, but I think he drops to the late teens due to a few win now teams (Celtics, TWolves, PDX, Mavs, Nets, Heat).
But he is a fascinating prospect in that he seems like a Zion, Odom, Ben Simmons, Ball, Kyle Anderson, Draymond, Marcus Smart, etc. type prospect that will fill up the stat sheet on both ends of the court.

I think his floor is a Bonga/Nerlens Noel type hybrid player... but his ceiling is very high and very real.

Who da fugg is PO-SHEV-SKI?

Coach K's name is Polish. I'm guessing this dude MIGHT BE ...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My bad...

PoKuSevSki (Pokemon? I said it first if it sticks)

https://www.nba.com/draft/2020/prospects/aleksej-pokusevski?ls=nba#/

I got NOTHING. First I've heard of him 9/8/2020

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

JESUS is a friend of mine.

If the Wizards pass on Jalen Smith... JC help them.

https://www.nba.com/draft/2020/prospects/jalen-smith?ls=nba

THIS IS THE EASIEST DRAFT, EVER, IMO... but I'm sure they probably won't see the obvious.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

NBAdraft.net has Poku going 39th. There's a better chance that the Wiz win the 20/21 NBA championship than Poku doesn't get picked in the 1st round. I think he goes around 12th, but I also predict that this is a very unpredictable draft.

If the Wizards draft Poku over Jalen Smith, I'm seriously going to look at the Nets as a team I will follow.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

what team is dominating with a skinny face up perimeter giant?

I'll go with Tayshawn Prince as the closest comp that I can think of. Remember him at Kentucky, he was ultrathin back then. Needless to say, he was a key to the Pistons great defense - not just in support of Ben Wallace but in helping players like Rip Hamilton. Alexander AK47 Kirilenko would probably be the next closest I can think of. His best days were complementing the Mailman at Utah. Prince and AK47 were very effective complementary pieces on outstanding teams. Of course, neither was 7'2ish.

Nothing like each other. Replay the Pistons Lakers series to see how Prince was guarding Kobe. His stance was so low he was effectively a 5'10" player -- with tape measure arms. The wide stance was hard to get around and his laterality combined with the long arms made him a threat on defense against both the pass and the shot. Poku by contrast, so far, stays upright. He's in the right place at the right time, and he's incredibly tall. That wingspan will measure short for his height, since much of his length is in the legs, and he has narrow shoulders. Devin Vassell is closer to Tayshaun than is Poku.

That said, playing basically as a 7' shooting guard on offense, he is remarkable to watch. Smart, smooth, in control, pretty passes. He drops the ball on a wind up for his jumper, which makes it guardable until he learns to catch and shoot overhead, but he's smart and young. And his feet are surprisingly nimble and active. I would not complain if he lands here. There is something special about his game. Until he gets some bulk he could slot in fine as a SF in the mold of a KD or the like. I'd still want some muscle and intimidating strength in the paint. He'd be fine in spot minutes sliding to defense underneath, rebounding agaisnt shorter mismatches, or coming in for weakside blocks. A good coach will find a role for him.

FWIW, I do think a team in the lotto will snatch him earlier than these late projections.

He is young, born reportedly 12/26/2001.

I'd draft Jalen Smith and IFF this kid's all that; I'd trade the rights to Hachimura for Poku and future considerations.

Jalen Smith is a much better fit at PF for the Wizards with John Wall. Hachimura is NOT NEARLY AS GOOD as Jalen Smith.

The Wizards need a rebounder/defender more than they needs Rui's scoring.

That said, the easiest fooking thing in the world would be to keep Rui and to draft Jalen Smith!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

...yes, I would take him at 9.

Just to make sure my question was clear & that I understand your response: are you saying that if you were the Wizards GM, then when our turn came to pick at #9, you would take Pokusevski with our pick?

Now, since you rate him "in the top 10," obviously there are at least some guys you'd take instead if they happened to fall to us at #9. So... who would you take above Pokusevski in this draft -- i.e. the guys who, if they are picked from 1-8, you hand in the card with Poku's name on it?

The only players that would cause me reservation would be Okongwu, Hayes, Wiseman, Haliburton, Toppin, Edwards, Ball and Vassell.
Im low on Ball and think Toppin is a bad fit, but I would at least look at the trade environment for them.

I take Poku above Avdija, Hampton, Green, Bey, Okoro, Cole Anthony, etc.

Dream would be to trade with Boston for 14, 26, and 30.
14: Poku
26: Tyler Bey
30: Tre Jones
37: Tillman
UDFA: Mason Jones

Wall / Ish / T. Jones
Beal / Brown / M. Jones
Bonga / Bey / Schofield
Rui / Bertans / Poku
Bryant / Tillman / Wagner

But alas....

No offense, but this to me is a BAD DREAM/almost nightmare.

For one thing, it's too many rookies on a team with young prospects. Just like when Juwan, Rasheed, and Chris Webber were teammates of Calbert Cheaney; the team had TOO MUCH YOUTH to retain contractually. PLUS, too much youth in a league where experience wins. Plus, loser coach.

No way IMO.

[doclinkin]

FWIW, Stewart’s offensive game reminds me of Antawn’s.

Crafty, uses changed angles on his shot release to get shots up without having to elevate. Jamison was a low post guy in college too.

Would we be happy with Antawn 2.0 in today’s game?

How? Tawn avoided contact, and commonly his FT shooting was anemic. He was a tweener in an era where that was an epithet. Even as a Tarheel his game was soft. He rebounded well by anticipation and out of his area but not by contact. Stewart bangs and scores on second jumps in traffic and through contact. He scores with low post foot work, Jamison scored by floaters and unpredictable early releases, and as a jumpshooting PF, eventually with the Wiz specializing in the shot, creating the role for the modern small ball era. Stewart is 250lbs and finishes through contact. His first move is to find the body of his opponent banging to create room for the baby hook or up and under. Those skills were nowhere in Tawns game, and why he was labelled soft at GSW.

To say nothing of his defense. Which is a redundant statement.

I'd understand if you thought that Jamison's game was more modern and a better fit for the current era, or said Stewart seemed perhaps a throwback to the groundbound game of long ago. Reasonable if you think it wouldn't translate in that respect. I just don't see any comparison to Jamison. Montrezl Harrell is closer to how he plays. High energy banging hustling big. In the NBA with shooters outside, no triple teams, and more room to operate I think he'd be able to show better the athleticism that got him recruited to Washington.

Watch on YouTube

But hey since Jamison is the Wizards 'Director of pro personnel", maybe he can pass on tips If any player could pick up anything from Jamison's offensive skill set and put it in play nowadays, I think they'd feast in today's league. Though defensively, yeah, there's little of his game I'd want on that side of the ball.

[doclinkin]

If we leave the draft with Vassell I'd be happy. Length, 3 point shooting and a demeanor that lets you know he's committed to not just being a 3 and D guy. Ball handling needs time but it can improve. He won't be a star, but in 4 years I see him being the prototypical do it all wing player. Put the ball on the floor, shoot the 3, and defend. His playmaking in college is non-existent though.

And on a squad with two high usage guards his lack of playmaking is less of an issue. It helps him conserve energy/score efficiently on the offensive end so he can wreak havoc on the other side of the ball. HIs style of play synergizes well with passers like Wall, TBJ, Ish, Bonga and across from Beal/Bertans he opens up the floor for bigs underneath. On defense both fights through picks and slows penetration so that Bryant doesn't have to try to cover too much ground underneath.

I too get the feeling with Drew Hanlen or another skills based personal trainer he will likely add more weapons to his game. He seems like a good player for a guy like Beal to mentor on the offensive side.

[doclinkin]

I really get the feeling that this draft class will be underrated, and there will be a number of guys that are mocked late right now who will be among of those 'how did that guy slip in the draft?' type stories. Granted, there are many players with incomplete games, no clear alpha wolf apex predator HOF talent at the top of the draft. But I would not be startled to see a Kawhi/Giannis develop from a mid-late pick.


I'm curious to see who Tommy likes in this one. He talks about both trading up and buying more picks, I know he has favorites. It'll be interesting to see if he has a pattern in the guys he really likes. I get the feeling he develops clear favorites in his process and then invests in getting that player. I don't think he's dispassionate enough to play the trade down/more picks game. Unless another team approaches him with an offer and his favorite is already gone/or he has multiple favorites mocked lower down. I think Tommy is a 'That's my Guy" type of scout. On the other hand, he's Tommy, he likes everybody.

[payitforward]

Just to make sure my question was clear & that I understand your response: are you saying that if you were the Wizards GM, then when our turn came to pick at #9, you would take Pokusevski with our pick?

Now, since you rate him "in the top 10," obviously there are at least some guys you'd take instead if they happened to fall to us at #9. So... who would you take above Pokusevski in this draft -- i.e. the guys who, if they are picked from 1-8, you hand in the card with Poku's name on it?

The only players that would cause me reservation would be Okongwu, Hayes, Wiseman, Haliburton, Toppin, Edwards, Ball and Vassell.
Im low on Ball and think Toppin is a bad fit, but I would at least look at the trade environment for them.

I take Poku above Avdija, Hampton, Green, Bey, Okoro, Cole Anthony, etc.

Dream would be to trade with Boston for 14, 26, and 30.
14: Poku
26: Tyler Bey
30: Tre Jones
37: Tillman
UDFA: Mason Jones

Wall / Ish / T. Jones
Beal / Brown / M. Jones
Bonga / Bey / Schofield
Rui / Bertans / Poku
Bryant / Tillman / Wagner

But alas....

No offense, but this to me is a BAD DREAM/almost nightmare.

For one thing, it's too many rookies on a team with young prospects. Just like when Juwan, Rasheed, and Chris Webber were teammates of Calbert Cheaney; the team had TOO MUCH YOUTH to retain contractually. PLUS, too much youth in a league where experience wins. Plus, loser coach.

No way IMO.

Awright, CCJ with the record-topping 8 posts in a row! I believe I once did 6, but you've lapped me!

well, first off we'd never get 14, 26 & 30 for 9 -- that's way too much for Boston to have to give.

That said, look at your own scenario, ken -- you want Jalen Smith &, ideally Tyler Bey. Thing is, there's no reason to take Smith @#9 -- he's sure to be there at #14. So right away it makes sense to trade 9 for 14 & something else of value.

That's especially true if we want Tyler Bey -- he isn't going to be there when our #37 rolls around, but he might be there at 26. So there's the reason for the trade right there!

Btw, even though you can argue that "experience wins," this team ain't winning anything any time soon! What we are doing is rebuilding. That you do best by making great draft choices -- & if you have too many good young players, well, there are worse problems to have! ) You can always trade....

[payitforward]

I really get the feeling that this draft class will be underrated, and there will be a number of guys that are mocked late right now who will be among of those 'how did that guy slip in the draft?' type stories....

Agree entirely; I have been putting it a little differently by saying that the strength of this draft is the number of really good players who will go in the 20's & 30's.

...I'm curious to see who Tommy likes in this one. He talks about both trading up and buying more picks, I know he has favorites. It'll be interesting to see if he has a pattern in the guys he really likes. I get the feeling he develops clear favorites in his process and then invests in getting that player. ...I think Tommy is a 'That's my Guy" type of scout. On the other hand, he's Tommy, he likes everybody.

You'd kind of get this idea from last year's draft, after which he described being "all in" on Rui, a guy most mocks had going in the last 1/3 of R1 (& some even lower).

...I don't think he's dispassionate enough to play the trade down/more picks game. ...

OTOH, hasn't a lot changed in the Wizards' organization since June '19 -- in particular, we've added a lot of analytics. & Tommy has declared himself a fan of analytics. So, we'll have to see.

IMO, using the #9 & #37 as capital, it'd be very possible to come out of this draft with 4 extremely good prospects. Since we have a total of 10 players (assuming that we pick up Bonga's option), & since one way or another we aren't making any noise in the next 2 years anyway, it seems obvious to me that it's the right path.