jerrod wrote:That wall quote is absolute genius. Love it!
Haven't seen you around in a while!
Moderators: MickeyDavis, paulpressey25
jerrod wrote:That wall quote is absolute genius. Love it!
Ruzious wrote:PG Graveyard wrote:Can someone who is smarter than me lay out the contract extension options for Giannis this offseason?
He'll get the "supermax" (30% of the team cap) which is expected to be 247.3 mil over 5 seasons (42.6 mil, then 46.0, 49.5, 52.9, and 56.3). Normally, you need 10 years of experience to get the supermax, but when he made All-NBA 1st team twice in a row, that qualified him for the supermax.
MickeyDavis wrote:Ruzious wrote:PG Graveyard wrote:Can someone who is smarter than me lay out the contract extension options for Giannis this offseason?
He'll get the "supermax" (30% of the team cap) which is expected to be 247.3 mil over 5 seasons (42.6 mil, then 46.0, 49.5, 52.9, and 56.3). Normally, you need 10 years of experience to get the supermax, but when he made All-NBA 1st team twice in a row, that qualified him for the supermax.
It's a good thing imo he's eligible now for supermax instead of signing a 2 year extension to hit that 10 year mark.
machu46 wrote:A supermax must be 5 years, which is why I tend to think he won't agree to sign the supermax.
His options this offseason are:
1. Supermax: 5 years/$224 million
2. A short-term deal to keep pressure on Bucks front office/maintain flexibility: 2 years/$67 million + options or whatever he wants
3. Play out his deal and choose one of these options after he's met with other teams, or sign with another team (other teams could offer a max of 4 years/$141 million)
Prez wrote:Ruzious wrote:Ron Swanson wrote:You don't "buy" that Giannis played like absolute crap in this series? I don't even know how to respond to that, so better to just move on.
Correct. It's absurd to blame the series loss on Giannis. The Bucks lost because they had an inferior backcourt and relied far too much on past their prime veterans.
Who is blaming the series entirely on Giannis? I don't think anyone is disputing that the backcourt sucked, coaching sucked, and there were a lot of other factors leading to the loss. But Giannis dramatically underperforming relative to his regular season play is one of them. In the 3 straight games to go down 0-3 he put up 22.7 on 45/15/54 shooting, that's awful by his standards tbh. If he even just slightly underperforms we're probably up 2-1 after 3 games.
GHOSTofSIKMA wrote: wtf is a "fit" with Giannis. hes an amazing talent but he is being over utilized offensively and too many other guys are taking flak for our failures on that end.
MickeyDavis wrote:Saying he wants to build a championship here and saying yes I am signing an extension are completely different things.
DavidDunn21 wrote:So please allow me to continue to be the scapegoat for our very rational fears, but just remember that I understand and forgive all of you.
GHOSTofSIKMA wrote: wtf is a "fit" with Giannis. hes an amazing talent but he is being over utilized offensively and too many other guys are taking flak for our failures on that end.
fam3381 wrote:machu46 wrote:A supermax must be 5 years, which is why I tend to think he won't agree to sign the supermax.
His options this offseason are:
1. Supermax: 5 years/$224 million
2. A short-term deal to keep pressure on Bucks front office/maintain flexibility: 2 years/$67 million + options or whatever he wants
3. Play out his deal and choose one of these options after he's met with other teams, or sign with another team (other teams could offer a max of 4 years/$141 million)
Yeah, machu46's numbers all look like they're in the ballpark of what he could sign assuming the cap stays flat for the next two years ($109m), which probably isn't a bad guess given how much uncertainty there is around everything.
A little more background: Giannis is eligible for the 35% supermax this offseason via the designated veteran extension (must be 5 years), which would kick in starting in 21/22 based on whatever the cap is at that point. Next year's cap number doesn't set his supermax figure, though obviously the broader revenue issues that impact next year's cap will presumably have some impact on the year after as well.
Previously there was an estimate that the 21/22 cap would be around $125m which would have put the supermax value at $253m over 5 years (you can see the "old" cap projections are still in the RealGM cap table). Obviously the league isn't likely to grow at the rate over the next couple years to get to that, but we don't know what the figure will be. For argument's sake, if the cap is held constant the next two years the supermax value would fall to $222m for deals starting in either year.
Of course, the same factors reducing the supermax will also reduce the regular max contract he could get elsewhere in 2021. The four year max with a $125m cap and 5% raises would be $161m, whereas with the current cap it's "only" $141m. I do think a depressed cap over the next two years could lead superstars to take shorter deals (like the old 1+1) to give them the option of signing new contracts if the cap is expected to make a significant jump (ie if it increases by more than the annual % raises in their contract). For example, if you thought the cap was going to rise by 15%+ from 21/22 to 22/23, then financially you're better off not locking in a long-term max in 21/22, assuming you ignore the risk of injury/value of security, etc. There isn't typically this type of disincentive for long-term deals since the cap generally rises a modest amount each year; typically you're better off signing a max deal with your current team with 8% raises, though guys sometimes try to get back into free agency when their cap share jumps (ie 0-6 eligible for 25%, 7-9 for 30%, 10+ for 35%).
Given the long-term questions around the Bucks' roster/management, I've been thinking for a while now that a shorter extension might be more likely than a supermax -- he apparently turned down a 5-year rookie max extension previously -- though I'd also say that losing in the second round increases the likelihood that he just rides it out. Note that he can also sign a shorter extension at any point before 2021 free agency starts (like Bledsoe, who signed his extension in-season), but the supermax is only available to be signed in the offseason (either this offseason as an extension or next offseason as a new contract).
DavidDunn21 wrote:So please allow me to continue to be the scapegoat for our very rational fears, but just remember that I understand and forgive all of you.
TD75 wrote:The only thing I get is that GIannis will not be forcing his way out of Milwaukee this offseason. I do not think anyone here really expected anything different.
The contract extension is a totally different matter.
DavidDunn21 wrote:So please allow me to continue to be the scapegoat for our very rational fears, but just remember that I understand and forgive all of you.
mke_design wrote:MickeyDavis wrote:Saying he wants to build a championship here and saying yes I am signing an extension are completely different things.
It’s not all he said
humanrefutation wrote:jerrod wrote:That wall quote is absolute genius. Love it!
Haven't seen you around in a while!
fam3381 wrote:machu46 wrote:A supermax must be 5 years, which is why I tend to think he won't agree to sign the supermax.
His options this offseason are:
1. Supermax: 5 years/$224 million
2. A short-term deal to keep pressure on Bucks front office/maintain flexibility: 2 years/$67 million + options or whatever he wants
3. Play out his deal and choose one of these options after he's met with other teams, or sign with another team (other teams could offer a max of 4 years/$141 million)
Yeah, machu46's numbers all look like they're in the ballpark of what he could sign assuming the cap stays flat for the next two years ($109m), which probably isn't a bad guess given how much uncertainty there is around everything.
A little more background: Giannis is eligible for the 35% supermax this offseason via the designated veteran extension (must be 5 years), which would kick in starting in 21/22 based on whatever the cap is at that point. Next year's cap number doesn't set his supermax figure, though obviously the broader revenue issues that impact next year's cap will presumably have some impact on the year after as well.
Previously there was an estimate that the 21/22 cap would be around $125m which would have put the supermax value at $253m over 5 years (you can see the "old" cap projections are still in the RealGM cap table). Obviously the league isn't likely to grow at the rate over the next couple years to get to that, but we don't know what the figure will be. For argument's sake, if the cap is held constant the next two years the supermax value would fall to $222m for deals starting in either year.
Of course, the same factors reducing the supermax will also reduce the regular max contract he could get elsewhere in 2021. The four year max with a $125m cap and 5% raises would be $161m, whereas with the current cap it's "only" $141m. I do think a depressed cap over the next two years could lead superstars to take shorter deals (like the old 1+1) to give them the option of signing new contracts if the cap is expected to make a significant jump (ie if it increases by more than the annual % raises in their contract). For example, if you thought the cap was going to rise by 15%+ from 21/22 to 22/23, then financially you're better off not locking in a long-term max in 21/22, assuming you ignore the risk of injury/value of security, etc. There isn't typically this type of disincentive for long-term deals since the cap generally rises a modest amount each year; typically you're better off signing a max deal with your current team with 8% raises, though guys sometimes try to get back into free agency when their cap share jumps (ie 0-6 eligible for 25%, 7-9 for 30%, 10+ for 35%).
Given the long-term questions around the Bucks' roster/management, I've been thinking for a while now that a shorter extension might be more likely than a supermax -- he apparently turned down a 5-year rookie max extension previously -- though I'd also say that losing in the second round increases the likelihood that he just rides it out. Note that he can also sign a shorter extension at any point before 2021 free agency starts (like Bledsoe, who signed his extension in-season), but the supermax is only available to be signed in the offseason (either this offseason as an extension or next offseason as a new contract).
TD75 wrote:Let me help the discussion a bit.
Giannis' game style is such that by default he will always "underperform" in the playoffs compared to the regular season. This is also due to the fact his numbers in the regular season are monstrous.
If anyone expects Giannis to carry over the regular season numbers in the playoffs (per 36mins) they are going to be perpetually disappointed.
There is a big difference between "could have played better" and "is responsible for losing the series"
MickeyDavis wrote:mke_design wrote:MickeyDavis wrote:Saying he wants to build a championship here and saying yes I am signing an extension are completely different things.
It’s not all he said
Yes, but he did NOT say anything about signing the extension, which is all that matters. Like Mitchell did. It would have ended all speculation and questions about his future. It doesn't mean he's leaving certainly.
DavidDunn21 wrote:So please allow me to continue to be the scapegoat for our very rational fears, but just remember that I understand and forgive all of you.
Krispy Kreme wrote:TD75 wrote:Let me help the discussion a bit.
Giannis' game style is such that by default he will always "underperform" in the playoffs compared to the regular season. This is also due to the fact his numbers in the regular season are monstrous.
If anyone expects Giannis to carry over the regular season numbers in the playoffs (per 36mins) they are going to be perpetually disappointed.
There is a big difference between "could have played better" and "is responsible for losing the series"
I'm not quite sure you can make this argument when the other greats have had monstrous regular seasons and still performed in the playoffs. I think Giannis just still has a long way to go. The Heat essentially game-planned him out of a series and made him try to force the issue. When Giannis starts forcing the issue, it's ugly. The issue is he doesn't know how to make his teammates better. He probably makes the "correct" play 1 out of 5 times.