What's the plan - Blow-it-up or Maximize?

[MGB8]

In looking at the draft thread, I think that there's a big, somewhat unspoken, division between fans on this forum.

One the one hand, you have folks who view this entire roster as a bunch of misfit toys, that needs to be effectively completely churned. Blow. It. Up. That means you don't worry about fit in seeking new pieces, or even duplication. You are looking for a franchise cornerstone or two, and if that's a combo guard like the Bulls current two best talents - so be it. The goal is not to be better this season - it's to churn the roster until we find the franchise building blocks (read - quasi tank).

On the other hand, you have folks who believe more in various players on the current roster and are looking to maximize those players, even if it's to move them later. For them, the focus is more on where the Bulls are potentially lacking - maybe a more natural passer as the Bulls lack a "distributor," or another "wing" (not relying on Otto Porter to be healthy or here long term, nor on Chandler Hutchinson, and noting that 1 wing isn't good enough anyway and Porter doesn't really create for himself and others, only somewhat better than Deng at that). Or a better big. Or BPA with "fit" as a tie-breaker.

Here there are a bunch of other divisions. Many, including me, don't think that having a "distributor" is a thing anymore in the NBA. That the free flow offense means everyone needs to pass but there is no "pg", just a bunch of "shooting guards" and "shooting wings" and "shooting bigs (or defensive bigs)" that have to learn to play smart and share when appropriate, drive or take the shot when appropriate. Like Boston where no one has more than 5 assists per game (Kemba at 4.9, Smart at 4.8, Tatum at 3) or the Clippers where only bench gunner Lou Williams is over 5 apg (5.6, Kawhi at 4.9, George at 3.9). So Coby and LaVine can be a theoretical starting backcourt going forward (though obviously can also be upgraded upon).

Other people think that a "lead distributor" is key - often as part of maximizing a Lauri or WCJr. or even Porter. That impacts who you might be looking to add outside an elite, sure-fire superstar - where the "fit" is. Coby now is at best a reserve at the 1 and 2 (absent a Luke/Lebron like "point" 3 or "point" 4).

Others, (also including me), think that the "shooting 4" is dead in the modern NBA and what you are looking for is just a "big enough 3" who is rugged enough to take some rebounding pressure off the C (where you are looking for entire team rebounding, to include from guards). So Phoenix has the right idea in playing Oubre as their "4" (even if he's a bit undersized for what you want) but the ideal would be Lebron or Zion (who has enough wing skills) or Gordon Hayward/Tatum or Durant (if healthy) - with the next tier being non-creator but rugged 3's like Covington/PJ Tucker - and guys like Kevin Love, Lauri, Sabonis, etc. must now be able to fit as centers or, if they can't handle that, matchup-specific role-players off the bench. That also impacts who you might be looking to add, outside an elite, sure-fire superstar - where the "fit" is. The Bulls would have a greater need than ever at the 3 and 4 spots (where Porter, even if healthy and in longer term plans, would be more a 2nd tier type "4" than anything else) - and you'd want to see if Lauri can hash it at the 5 - if he can rebound well enough there and his offensive advantage can outweigh his defensive liabilities. Ditto with Carter Jr., but they (and Gafford) are all competing for one starting position.

But if the fan don't view the PF position as a dead position, then that position may already be covered for the Bulls.

I felt like these sort of "philosophical" differences - differences in "what's the plan" - are worthy of their own thread.

For me - who views the PF position as dead and the "distributor" role as pretty much "not a thing," but still thinks the Bulls aren't in pure "blow it up" mode, then the primary need is (aside from a bona-fire superstar or game changer) - (1) high-level wing talent, then (2A) another high level guard, since you really can't have enough of those, and/or (2B) a bona-fide 2-way center who can anchor modern small ball defensively while giving a comparative advantage offensively - since it doesn't seem like any of the Bulls' current 3 bigs are 2-way players or good enough defensively or on the boards to cover for some of the disadvantages of going small.

[MrSparkle]

I’ve gone back and forth, but the hard pill is Blow it up (as in, there isn’t a core I feel you can resign here).

But not in the sense that you trade everybody asap and tank. They really do need to build some player value. That’s step one. If they had a fire-sale this off-season we’d come out of it with a few late firsts and bad salaries.

I would explore a first wave of trades this fall (more exploratory), and another at the deadline (more desperate).

And maybe Lauri, Zach, Otto see an extension offer next summer, but my gut feeling is neither of these guys are worth the money they’ll want. Dunn and Valentine are probably on their way out, unless the dead cap situation makes them stay for a year.

Coby, #4 and WCJ I imagine are more-so a long-term Bulls. I can also see Wendell getting swapped at the first good opportunity.

[sco]

IMO, the 3pt shot role in offenses combined with an increase in bigs who can either/both function as a distributor and/or shoot 3's, has changed the positional roles in the game. To your point, teams who have a capable ball handling/passing PF seem to be more successful. It would be great to have a guy like that. I thought Lauri, before he hulked-up, looked like a guy who could become that for us, but I doubt it now, unless he sees the light on who he needs to become.

The notion of blowing it up, IMO, is just another term for tanking to find a top 5 talent via the draft. I think the new odds combined with the likely elimination of the one and done rule will make finding that guy through the draft, much less likely for teams with the top pick than in years past.

So I guess I'm in the maximize camp. That starts with assessing our young players this season, which, IMO should start with hiring an experienced HC. Having inexperienced players playing for an inexperienced HC is more likely to result in difficulties in assigning blame for poor play (like last year). We need a high floor for our coach not a high ceiling right now.

[TheSuzerain]

IMO, the 3pt shot role in offenses combined with an increase in bigs who can either/both function as a distributor and/or shoot 3's, has changed the positional roles in the game. To your point, teams who have a capable ball handling/passing PF seem to be more successful. It would be great to have a guy like that. I thought Lauri, before he hulked-up, looked like a guy who could become that for us, but I doubt it now, unless he sees the light on who he needs to become.

The notion of blowing it up, IMO, is just another term for tanking to find a top 5 talent via the draft. I think the new odds combined with the likely elimination of the one and done rule will make finding that guy through the draft, much less likely for teams with the top pick than in years past.

So I guess I'm in the maximize camp. That starts with assessing our young players this season, which, IMO should start with hiring an experienced HC. Having inexperienced players playing for an inexperienced HC is more likely to result in difficulties in assigning blame for poor play (like last year). We need a high floor for our coach not a high ceiling right now.

The elimination of the one-and-done rule is a big reason to tank if that will predictably be in 2021 or 2022 as that will be an artificially strong draft class.

[ChettheJet]

Some people just think the guy they could get is far superior to the guy they have. And for no rational reason. The old joke from decades ago was the 2 most popular athletes in Boston were the backup goalie for the Bruins and the backup QB for the Patriots. Because people dreamed the guy they hadn't seen play was better than the starter. It's stupid, to think the coaches don't have a clue and the organization is willing to lose rather than switch.

Around here you have people who delude themselves into thinking that if the Bulls could just trade everybody for 12 draft picks they'd be on their way to 6 more titles. But at the same time so overrate the trade value of the players the Bulls have that see other teams so overjoyed to get someone from the Bulls' bench.

I think the Bulls have very few one dimensional players, just a passer, just a shooter, just a rebounder. Most can shoot, some from distance, many of those can rebound, most seem like willing passers. I think honestly some have been injured so often that it's hard to tell if they can run screen roll, or have one on one moves or can expand their shot range. Some of that was coaching, not just the Boylen scheme but developing things in practice. The team needs to see how these players respond to better coaching in and out of games. You can have a Ben Bordon or Kyle Korver to come off the bench on a very good team, you can start one player like Joakim Noah who is limited on offense most of the time if you have 4 other scorers out there with him. But normally it's best to have players who can contribute in other ways when one aspect of their game isn't working.

It's not like they have a G League refugee roster, Dunn, Valentine, Hutchison, Carter, Markkanen, Lavine, White, Porter, Yong all first round picks. It's not like they were all reaches or gambles.

To me the first 7-8 Lavine, White, Carter, Gafford, Markkanen, Hutchison including this year's 2 picks, you keep to build around, the next 4-6 Young, Porter, Felicio, Valentine, Dunn, Arcidiacono you look to trade because they have either topped out and are as good as they're going to get, or you've seen enough and it's time to move on. Any of them could stay as role players if you had a team making a deep playoff run but we're still trying to add talent and improve and it's worth the chance to bring in other guys who could possibly push the first tier players. The end of the bench like Kornet, Mokoka even Struss are cheap enough to keep for the short term

[drosereturn]

Unless the roster can underogo major overhaul change, like blowing it up bc of extensions on Lavine Lauri Carter OPJ and the Bulls are going nowhere with this core. Its also to prepared for 21,22 draft.

[MrSparkle]

Some people just think the guy they could get is far superior to the guy they have. And for no rational reason. The old joke from decades ago was the 2 most popular athletes in Boston were the backup goalie for the Bruins and the backup QB for the Patriots. Because people dreamed the guy they hadn't seen play was better than the starter. It's stupid, to think the coaches don't have a clue and the organization is willing to lose rather than switch.

Around here you have people who delude themselves into thinking that if the Bulls could just trade everybody for 12 draft picks they'd be on their way to 6 more titles. But at the same time so overrate the trade value of the players the Bulls have that see other teams so overjoyed to get someone from the Bulls' bench.

I think the Bulls have very few one dimensional players, just a passer, just a shooter, just a rebounder. Most can shoot, some from distance, many of those can rebound, most seem like willing passers. I think honestly some have been injured so often that it's hard to tell if they can run screen roll, or have one on one moves or can expand their shot range. Some of that was coaching, not just the Boylen scheme but developing things in practice. The team needs to see how these players respond to better coaching in and out of games. You can have a Ben Bordon or Kyle Korver to come off the bench on a very good team, you can start one player like Joakim Noah who is limited on offense most of the time if you have 4 other scorers out there with him. But normally it's best to have players who can contribute in other ways when one aspect of their game isn't working.

It's not like they have a G League refugee roster, Dunn, Valentine, Hutchison, Carter, Markkanen, Lavine, White, Porter, Yong all first round picks. It's not like they were all reaches or gambles.

To me the first 7-8 Lavine, White, Carter, Gafford, Markkanen, Hutchison including this year's 2 picks, you keep to build around, the next 4-6 Young, Porter, Felicio, Valentine, Dunn, Arcidiacono you look to trade because they have either topped out and are as good as they're going to get, or you've seen enough and it's time to move on. Any of them could stay as role players if you had a team making a deep playoff run but we're still trying to add talent and improve and it's worth the chance to bring in other guys who could possibly push the first tier players. The end of the bench like Kornet, Mokoka even Struss are cheap enough to keep for the short term

To be fair , the Bledsoe’s backup ended up being the best QB ever.

[ATRAIN53]

It's gonna be almost 2 years since we last saw these guys when they resume-

There will be a lot of movement and players changing teams and revenue becomes a problem for franchises.

I think we wait and see who spent the time bulking up and getting better (Coby/Zach)

All I want is to get rid of Porter and Thad and Felatio.
After that let me see what we have and who is out there for the taking.

[sco]

IMO, the 3pt shot role in offenses combined with an increase in bigs who can either/both function as a distributor and/or shoot 3's, has changed the positional roles in the game. To your point, teams who have a capable ball handling/passing PF seem to be more successful. It would be great to have a guy like that. I thought Lauri, before he hulked-up, looked like a guy who could become that for us, but I doubt it now, unless he sees the light on who he needs to become.

The notion of blowing it up, IMO, is just another term for tanking to find a top 5 talent via the draft. I think the new odds combined with the likely elimination of the one and done rule will make finding that guy through the draft, much less likely for teams with the top pick than in years past.

So I guess I'm in the maximize camp. That starts with assessing our young players this season, which, IMO should start with hiring an experienced HC. Having inexperienced players playing for an inexperienced HC is more likely to result in difficulties in assigning blame for poor play (like last year). We need a high floor for our coach not a high ceiling right now.

The elimination of the one-and-done rule is a big reason to tank if that will predictably be in 2021 or 2022 as that will be an artificially strong draft class.

It will be an artificially deep draft class, I agree, but will have as much certainty in the top picks as this year. See the draft positions of Kwame Brown and Kobe Bryant.

[micromonkey]

The answer is always to maximize. But I get the drift--keep or trade.
Trade all and anyone currently on the roster--no one is key or looks to be anything approaching it

Since there is no structure to be "blown up" --blowing up is an easy option. If you can trade/dump any contracts--do so.
We could easily have a better and dare I say possibly more fun to watch team drafting new and eating bad contracts--so I don't see why we would not do that.

[Am2626]

I’ve gone back and forth, but the hard pill is Blow it up (as in, there isn’t a core I feel you can resign here).

But not in the sense that you trade everybody asap and tank. They really do need to build some player value. That’s step one. If they had a fire-sale this off-season we’d come out of it with a few late firsts and bad salaries.

I would explore a first wave of trades this fall (more exploratory), and another at the deadline (more desperate).

And maybe Lauri, Zach, Otto see an extension offer next summer, but my gut feeling is neither of these guys are worth the money they’ll want. Dunn and Valentine are probably on their way out, unless the dead cap situation makes them stay for a year.

Coby, #4 and WCJ I imagine are more-so a long-term Bulls. I can also see Wendell getting swapped at the first good opportunity.

If the Bulls go ahead and blow up the team now then the last 3 years have been completely wasted. To not get anything out of the last three years is utterly disappointing. I think there are some pieces that this team can build around. I also realize that next year’s draft class looks really good so hoping the Bulls stay somewhere in the lottery. With the new draft lottery odds tanking isn’t necessary. I think a developmental year with the right coach and evaluation of players is the best approach for this team. Hopefully they luck into a top 4 pick in next years draft as well.

[HearshotKDS]

I'm in the "limited blow up" camp. As other posters mentioned, the contract situation with Lavine, Lauri, OPJ means the Bulls either need to commit big $$ over multiple years to these guys - and fill in the many gaps to try and compete with that core, or you let them go/trade for whatever assets you can, and start building around the current youth eventually being your core.

In my opinion, building around Lavine, Lauri, and OPJ limits your teams ceiling to being a punching bag in the 1st round of PO. With that said, if you can sign one of those 2 (no interested in OPJ for health reasons) to a very team friendly deal, you do that. I don't think the Hinkey plan works in the current NBA due to lottery rule changes, so I don't see the logic in a full blowup and play rookies and D leaguers until you hit a jackpot in draft lotto or player development. Develop youth yes, keep future cap flexibility to land a star FA in case a disgruntled player decides to leave their current team, but if that does happen players aren't going to leave their team to play with 2 rookies, White, and D leaguers.

[TheSuzerain]

IMO, the 3pt shot role in offenses combined with an increase in bigs who can either/both function as a distributor and/or shoot 3's, has changed the positional roles in the game. To your point, teams who have a capable ball handling/passing PF seem to be more successful. It would be great to have a guy like that. I thought Lauri, before he hulked-up, looked like a guy who could become that for us, but I doubt it now, unless he sees the light on who he needs to become.

The notion of blowing it up, IMO, is just another term for tanking to find a top 5 talent via the draft. I think the new odds combined with the likely elimination of the one and done rule will make finding that guy through the draft, much less likely for teams with the top pick than in years past.

So I guess I'm in the maximize camp. That starts with assessing our young players this season, which, IMO should start with hiring an experienced HC. Having inexperienced players playing for an inexperienced HC is more likely to result in difficulties in assigning blame for poor play (like last year). We need a high floor for our coach not a high ceiling right now.

The elimination of the one-and-done rule is a big reason to tank if that will predictably be in 2021 or 2022 as that will be an artificially strong draft class.

It will be an artificially deep draft class, I agree, but will have as much certainty in the top picks as this year. See the draft positions of Kwame Brown and Kobe Bryant.

There's better scouting of the high-school talent these days than back then. Largely because of the Team USA youth teams where you get to see the top talent in a controlled, talent-rich environment.

But risk/uncertainty is unavoidable if we're actually trying to build a team worth a damn.

[cjbulls]

The elimination of the one-and-done rule is a big reason to tank if that will predictably be in 2021 or 2022 as that will be an artificially strong draft class.

It will be an artificially deep draft class, I agree, but will have as much certainty in the top picks as this year. See the draft positions of Kwame Brown and Kobe Bryant.

There's better scouting of the high-school talent these days than back then. Largely because of the Team USA youth teams where you get to see the top talent in a controlled, talent-rich environment.

But risk/uncertainty is unavoidable if we're actually trying to build a team worth a damn.

Better scouting when HS/AAU/Team USA squads aren’t even playing?

In any case, when the international stuff eventually returns, it feels like you still get just as many misses because those teams don’t play together long and you run into small sample size problems.

[MrSparkle]

I’ve gone back and forth, but the hard pill is Blow it up (as in, there isn’t a core I feel you can resign here).

But not in the sense that you trade everybody asap and tank. They really do need to build some player value. That’s step one. If they had a fire-sale this off-season we’d come out of it with a few late firsts and bad salaries.

I would explore a first wave of trades this fall (more exploratory), and another at the deadline (more desperate).

And maybe Lauri, Zach, Otto see an extension offer next summer, but my gut feeling is neither of these guys are worth the money they’ll want. Dunn and Valentine are probably on their way out, unless the dead cap situation makes them stay for a year.

Coby, #4 and WCJ I imagine are more-so a long-term Bulls. I can also see Wendell getting swapped at the first good opportunity.

If the Bulls go ahead and blow up the team now then the last 3 years have been completely wasted. To not get anything out of the last three years is utterly disappointing. I think there are some pieces that this team can build around. I also realize that next year’s draft class looks really good so hoping the Bulls stay somewhere in the lottery. With the new draft lottery odds tanking isn’t necessary. I think a developmental year with the right coach and evaluation of players is the best approach for this team. Hopefully they luck into a top 4 pick in next years draft as well.

Unfortunately they were wasted. It's an Orlando Magic 2013-2020 kind of a build. You can trade the guys low and watch them play better elsewhere, or you can resign them and treadmill. I don't even see a positive scenario in building player value. Jimmy and Niko were both playing the best basketball of their lives when they were traded for pitiful offers. Asik came in, #16 went out... really, really bad trades. Zach is similarly in a kind of underrated light - there isn't anybody who can score the ball as well as he can for under $20m, but you know that contract is just for 2 more seasons, and you know he's gonna seek a $35m+ max with his PPG average.

I look at Orlando, and I would've rather not been saddled with Aaron Gordon, Fournier, etc. and mid-market FA pickups like like DJ, Jonathon Simmons, Aminu, etc. Vucevic has been a steady piece, but it's pretty sad that after 6 lotto picks in a row (including 5 in top-6), their best player was a throw-in 16th pick from a trade. And trading Oladipo and Sabonis for an expiring and declining Ibaka was plainly stupid - I don't know what they were thinking. But Zach is not a 2-way player like Oladipo, and Lauri is not a 2-position big like Sabonis, and if they get traded, I hope they can do better than a declining expiring Ibaka.

I see the sentiment of "not wasting the last 3 years", but I also see a logic in moving on, ignoring the clout of "top-7 picks" and the Butler trade pieces, and pretty much rebuilding atleast 50% of this roster and probably resetting the core, focusing on Coby, #4 and the rest as side men.

Like I said, I wouldn't have a fire-sale, because some of the guys will play better on other teams. You want to come out with assets. But if not, that may mean guys get resigned, and it becomes a lame-duck situation. I trust AK with open cap and picks more than resigning GarPax's farm. I don't think this necessarily means we'll be worse. Honestly, a team with no elite picks and simple cap and trade pickups could vastly outplay this current Bulls team: the Raptors, injured Magic, injured Nets, Bucks, Heat and Pacers did just that. Count the number of top-10 picks on their playoff starting rosters... Pretty much none besides reclamation-project Fultz and rehabbing Oladipo.

[LateNight]

I don’t think there is anyone saying “I think our future core should be Lauri, Lavine and OPJ”.

They have not looked good together for any extended period of time. OPJ and Lauri both looked broken for long stretches of last season. Zach is Zach.

I’m not interested in giving anyone a Wiggins contract, but trading them for random draft picks seems dumb. Especially without knowing what the league (or draft) will look like in the next two years.

I want to see Zach next to a 1a - not sure who that is, but I have doubts about it being OPJ or Lauri.

[PlayerUp]

Blow it up.

Keep Coby
Keep Wendell

Shop everyone else.

[gardenofsound]

I'd be looking to clear salary for next offseason. Obviously you listen to offers for everyone, but I'd only put LaVine, Carter, White, and Gafford on the "plan to retain" list from the current roster. Obviously the #4 pick would be in this category also.

It comes down to cost control and, yes, finding the star (or not hindering the ability to acquire said star). This year needs to be all about preparing for the 2021 FA class, and the Bulls should absolutely be courting both AD and Antetokounmpo. They are one of the few teams with cap space to bring BOTH in, and with LaVine, White, and the #4 pick, you're talking about a young core with a very high ceiling. It's a strong pitch to make for both of them.

Current roster:

Otto Porter - expiring, who knows what kind of contract he will get when he hits FA. He just hasn't demonstrated the ability to stay healthy, though.

Zach LaVine - hard worker, improved every year. I'd really love to keep him, but you have to see what kinds of offers he may bring. He's going to end up being paid like a bona fide star when he hits FA, and it's only really prudent to pay him that money if you already have your the other key pieces of the core locked. I think next offseason is going to be the determining factor on this front. If the Bulls can draw one or both of AD and Giannis next offseason, then LaVine is a great fit and would be worth paying.

Thad Young - trade him. His guaranteed $6mm in 21-22 could hurt the Bulls chances to draw key FA's.
Tomas Satoransky - trade him for the same reasons as Young. He's guaranteed $5mm in 21-22.

Felicio - keep, or use as salary filler in a trade since he is an expiring contract. His time in the NBA probably doesn't go beyond this coming season.

Dunn - offer the QO and let him walk if anyone matches. He's the type of guy who would be a great role player on a winning team, but the Bulls are years away from being able to use someone like Dunn.

Coby - keep. He's cost controlled for three more seasons before he hits RFA.

Markkanen - trade him at the deadline. He hits RFA this coming offseason, and is likely to be overpaid. His cap hit could again impact the Bulls' ability to draw AD and Giannis. Rehab his value and trade him for future assets.

Wendell Carter - I want to see if his poor performance thus far is a product of his coaching, or himself. I want to see how he plays with a good coach, because he can still project to be a good two way player who can switch onto the perimeter, and that will always be valuable.

Denzel Valentine - let him walk

Arcidiacono - he's a bench warmer on a good team, but he fills a roster spot. He's not going to get much in trade value anyways, so may as well keep him.

Chandler Hutchison - this is his prove it year. I say keep him, because his trade value is piss poor anyways, and he has a chance to turn things around if he's truly healthy and has good coaching to put him in a position to succeed.

Luke Kornet - trade him. Or keep him. Doesn't really matter. I'd actively shop him and see what you can get back... maybe a SRP?

Gafford - keep. He's cost controlled and looks like he's a decent player.

Shaq Harrison is a FA now. I wouldn't pay too much for him, but would certainly look into bringing him back on a 1+TO type deal.

[Andi Obst]

It's gonna be almost 2 years since we last saw these guys when they resume

Damn, when do you expect the next season to start?

[Andi Obst]

I have a tough time calling it "blow it up" because you kind of have to have anything before you can do that. We suck and so do most of our players. I'm definitely listening to offers for everyone, though.