2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th: PT 2

[TheSuzerain]

Also on the shooting form thing, a big part of the 3-ball revolution has been the lowering of release points. It helps with 3-point shooting, especially on pull-ups. Ray Allen is no longer the standard on shooting form.

[Jvaughn]

Lamelo's form definitely needs to be changed. His release point and his balance are the biggest issues. I really think you're making a bigger deal out of it than it is. I'm not saying it's a guarantee that he becomes a great shooter, but I'd be highly surprised if he wasn't able to become at least passable.

Am I in bizarro world or something? Why am I the only one who seems to notice how unfathomably bad this is?

Just look at this. Look. At. This.

Watch on YouTube

It isn't actually even a shooting form. He is literally passing the ball at the basket.

Lol. Kind of, actually.

But let me give you the flip side. Yes his feet are awful - all over the place, no consistency, no placement to get power from his core. Yes, he brings the ball up from way too low, and even that is inconsistent.

But he's strong enough that even with those huge issues he still has range and there doesn't seem to be a physical mobility issue in his core, shoulders, or wrists. Combine that with the fact that *that* is how he shoots, and yet he has some success with it, and that suggests an elite level of hand-eye coordination.

So even though, given his upbringing, it makes zero sense why he hasn't had a private shooting coach working with him for the last two years, you've got to believe that whatever NBA team drafts him will get him one and drill him, over and over and over, to achieve at least consistent, passable mechanics....

Now, I know that there are some folks who, no matter how much shot training you put them through, they'll slide back to what they were comfortable with as kids in the heat of a game. But that's usually a minority of folks, and more common the older you start training the player's mechanics. LaMelo is young. And he has talent. The question is how long it would take to actually get him to have proper shot-mechanic muscle memory. For a guy with his footspeed, handle and vision... it's a risk, but the upside is tremendous.

And that's kind of how I see it as well. As I mentioned, I'm not even a Ball fan, and wouldn't be over the top of we drafted him. That being said, I don't see his shooting issues being as big as some see them. He definitely needs to raise that release point way higher to get away from that chest shot thing, and he needs some consistency on his feet. Both launch and landing position.

A good shooting coach is going to drill the consistency of a more efficient shot motion. And unless he is uncoachable, and very stubborn, it should make a world of difference. Outside of MKG, I can't think of a bad shooter who came into the league whose shot and shot form never changed one bit.

[AdonalFoyle4Prez]

Hey guys, do you guys think this is fair?

I wouldn’t mind that trade. It gives the Bulls an athletic wing. They can also draft Edwards, Hayes, or Ball with the #2 Pick.

Would be throwing in Minny’s 2021 1st round, as well.

[PlayerUp]

He's on another tier athletically to Wendell. Okongwu also has actual hope of playing the 4.

Wendell isn't really a problem though, he just needs to develop, stay healthy and be used differently. He ranked 26th in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be used as a stretch 5 offensively. He helps the team more than he hurts us.

Lauri is the problem right now as he regressed offensively, his efficiency has only regressed and he is a negative on defense ranking 309 in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be this unguardable 7'0 bigman who could shoot 40% or more from 3. Instead his efficiency has declined every season since entering the NBA.

[BigJimFinn]

Lamelo's form definitely needs to be changed. His release point and his balance are the biggest issues. I really think you're making a bigger deal out of it than it is. I'm not saying it's a guarantee that he becomes a great shooter, but I'd be highly surprised if he wasn't able to become at least passable.

Am I in bizarro world or something? Why am I the only one who seems to notice how unfathomably bad this is?

Just look at this. Look. At. This.

Watch on YouTube

It isn't actually even a shooting form. He is literally passing the ball at the basket.

I really love the way his right foot crosses in front of his left on the landing about half the time.
The right elbow sticking out could draw some fouls at least.

Looking at this and the previous clip on Haliburton, I wonder if the trend for ballhandlers shooting from far beyond the arc is leading to slight-built guards developing a "pushing" shooting form to increase their range. It reminds me of 8 year olds shooting at a full-height basket.

[nomorezorro]

lamelo's form is definitely jacked up from being trained to shoot halfcourt pull-ups since middle school. it's the ball family trademark

i'm somewhere in between "lamelo's jumper isn't that big of a deal" and "lamelo's shot is irreparably broken." it would be incredibly silly to assume a guy with poor form and shooting numbers that bad is fixable. improving as a shooter isn't easy even though people just kinda handwave and go "ah that'll get better!" all the time.

i would say the reasons i'm not writing him off are

1) he's comfortable shooting in a way lonzo clearly wasn't, which is a moderately encouraging sign
2) cleaning up the lower body could make a big difference and doesn't seem as significant a change as adjusting his release
3) he doesn't have to be a great shooter to be effective given his incredible passing talent
4) shot selection could help his numbers improve

[TheSuzerain]

He's on another tier athletically to Wendell. Okongwu also has actual hope of playing the 4.

Wendell isn't really a problem though, he just needs to develop, stay healthy and be used differently. He ranked 26th in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be used as a stretch 5 offensively. He helps the team more than he hurts us.

Lauri is the problem right now as he regressed offensively, his efficiency has only regressed and he is a negative on defense ranking 309 in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be this unguardable 7'0 bigman who could shoot 40% or more from 3. Instead his efficiency has declined every season since entering the NBA.

I don't know what any of that has to do with our draft pick.

Neither Wendell nor Lauri matter.

[MrSparkle]

lamelo's form is definitely jacked up from being trained to shoot halfcourt pull-ups since middle school. it's the ball family trademark

i'm somewhere in between "lamelo's jumper isn't that big of a deal" and "lamelo's shot is irreparably broken." it would be incredibly silly to assume a guy with poor form and shooting numbers that bad is fixable. improving as a shooter isn't easy even though people just kinda handwave and go "ah that'll get better!" all the time.

i would say the reasons i'm not writing him off are

1) he's comfortable shooting in a way lonzo clearly wasn't, which is a moderately encouraging sign
2) cleaning up the lower body could make a big difference and doesn't seem as significant a change as adjusting his release
3) he doesn't have to be a great shooter to be effective given his incredible passing talent
4) shot selection could help his numbers improve

So #1 is the recurring point I hear that makes no sense to me.... Lonzo's college UCLA percentages were very good:

FG 55% (5/9)
2P 73% (3/4)
3P 41% (2/5)

His only flag was the 67% FT (1.8/2.7), which wasn't that bad as much as a low draw rate.

LaMelo's NBL stats:

FG 37.5%
2P 46%
3P 25% (1.7/6.7)

I think 46% 2P in the bigger, strong NBL league is actually half-way encouraging. He also shot a hair better from the FT line (2.8/3.9 at 72%).

But is the conclusion that's he a more comfortable than Lonzo based on his willingness to launch more bombs from behind the arc? Cause no NBA team is allowing a 37% shooter with a low defensive motor to get the green light to shoot.

And #3 is half-way true. I do think he can be productive without the shot. You're just looking at production somewhere between poor or rich man's Lonzo.

[Chi town]

He's on another tier athletically to Wendell. Okongwu also has actual hope of playing the 4.

Wendell isn't really a problem though, he just needs to develop, stay healthy and be used differently. He ranked 26th in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be used as a stretch 5 offensively. He helps the team more than he hurts us.

Lauri is the problem right now as he regressed offensively, his efficiency has only regressed and he is a negative on defense ranking 309 in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be this unguardable 7'0 bigman who could shoot 40% or more from 3. Instead his efficiency has declined every season since entering the NBA.

If OO is your 4 you are in big trouble. He’s John Collins Bam which is a 5 in this NBA. I’d rather just play Gafford there and invest in wings.

[Chi town]

Modern NBA defenses really expose non shooters to hurt the whole offense. Moves the ball to worst shooter and weakest link. Just look last year at Dunn. He killed our offense in the halfcourt.

[Chi town]

Hali's form is pretty ugly too but the man is knock down. Ball has tweaks to make in his shot but I don't see it fundamentally broken. Just needs to make it consistent.

His form greatly limits his ceiling. He can’t shoot off the dribble or off of screens. Solely a set shooter.

I guess he could be a Shroeder type.

[nomorezorro]

So #1 is the recurring point I hear that makes no sense to me.... Lonzo's college UCLA percentages were very good:

FG 55% (5/9)
2P 73% (3/4)
3P 41% (2/5)

His only flag was the 67% FT (1.8/2.7), which wasn't that bad as much as a low draw rate.

if you're coming at it from an "optimistic about melo" perspective i think it's hard to quantify the difference between him and lonzo as a shooter. lonzo did put up good numbers in college (and has done so again from behind the line in the NBA), but i don't think anyone who watched that ucla team would describe him as an eager shooter outside of catch-and-shoot situations.

the windup made it hard for him to pull up off the dribble; he was super reliant on step-backs to give him space/time and he couldn't shoot moving to his right at all (literally. he took zero off-the-dribble threes moving to his right in college). he played off-ball in the halfcourt, because outside of transition, his skills really didn't align with what you expect a lead guard to do in a modern offense.

this has carried through to the NBA, where after a season in which lonzo shot 37.5% on threes you can still find pelicans fans grousing about how his unwillingness to shoot is hurting the offense. that's because he doesn't shoot often outside of catch-and-shoot 3s. for all the problems with melo's game, there's no question that he's willing to shoot at all levels, that he's capable of getting shots off the bounce. that's in part because his form, while flawed, doesn't restrict him in the same way lonzo's does

i think it's pretty fair to question how much that really matters — is it better to have a dude willing to hoist up shots he's unlikely to make vs. a guy who often doesn't look at the rim because he knows how bad his shot is? but from a prospect/moldability perspective i think melo offers higher upside as a shooter (and almost a certainly a lower downside, if he can't fix his shot or his shot selection)

[chefo]

I don't buy the 'you can fix his shooting form' argument. By late high school, your mechanics are probably set for life. Most of the 35%+ shooters in-game that I knew shot 75%-80% or better in practice, and had very consistent forms. As late teens.

LaMelo's shot is just ridiculously bad looking, on every level that I can think of. Form, feet, stance, low release point, quickness of release, etc. I seriously doubt that with this form he can launch accurately anything but wide open threes, because if I had to guess, his shots would randomly be all-over the place in a game situation. The benefit of being 6'7 or 6'8 as a ball-handling wing is that you can shoot on top of people and you can see on top of people. With that shot mechanics, he won't be able to shoot on top of people. He'll probably still be able to see, but is that a big enough positive trait to offset the shooting?

BTW, I was never that big of a fan of his brother either, unless you have an entire team of guys that need to be fed the rock. Then, maybe you close your eyes to his other deficiencies like foot speed and shooting.

So, to me, LaMelo is a total coin toss... I just can't see past his awful shooting form, backed by awful shooting numbers. Maybe I should, but he just screams mediocre, as a good outcome, mind you. Could be wrong--sometimes tall ball handlers turn out to be just fine, despite their many deficiencies.

[gobullschi]

Watch on YouTube

[bad knees]

Watch on YouTube

Hmm. This video was very interesting. This guy has a "modern" take on Lamelo's shot, and is much more optimistic than most are, including me. I don't know enough about shooting to be able to critique the video, but I have to say, a lot of it makes sense. Especially when I think about how guys like Steph and Trae shoot. Any shot doctors in the house who would care to opine? Thanks gobullschi for posting the video.

[TheSuzerain]

He's on another tier athletically to Wendell. Okongwu also has actual hope of playing the 4.

Wendell isn't really a problem though, he just needs to develop, stay healthy and be used differently. He ranked 26th in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be used as a stretch 5 offensively. He helps the team more than he hurts us.

Lauri is the problem right now as he regressed offensively, his efficiency has only regressed and he is a negative on defense ranking 309 in the league in DRPM. He was supposed to be this unguardable 7'0 bigman who could shoot 40% or more from 3. Instead his efficiency has declined every season since entering the NBA.

If OO is your 4 you are in big trouble. He’s John Collins Bam which is a 5 in this NBA. I’d rather just play Gafford there and invest in wings.

John Collins spends half his time at the 4.

John Collins with better defense is the no-doubt #1 pick in this class.

We are 1 year removed from Siakam being the starting 4 on a championship team. Siakam actually played the 3 for stretches during that run next to Gasol and Ibaka in the Philly series.

[MrSparkle]

So #1 is the recurring point I hear that makes no sense to me.... Lonzo's college UCLA percentages were very good:

FG 55% (5/9)
2P 73% (3/4)
3P 41% (2/5)

His only flag was the 67% FT (1.8/2.7), which wasn't that bad as much as a low draw rate.

if you're coming at it from an "optimistic about melo" perspective i think it's hard to quantify the difference between him and lonzo as a shooter. lonzo did put up good numbers in college (and has done so again from behind the line in the NBA), but i don't think anyone who watched that ucla team would describe him as an eager shooter outside of catch-and-shoot situations.

the windup made it hard for him to pull up off the dribble; he was super reliant on step-backs to give him space/time and he couldn't shoot moving to his right at all (literally. he took zero off-the-dribble threes moving to his right in college). he played off-ball in the halfcourt, because outside of transition, his skills really didn't align with what you expect a lead guard to do in a modern offense.

this has carried through to the NBA, where after a season in which lonzo shot 37.5% on threes you can still find pelicans fans grousing about how his unwillingness to shoot is hurting the offense. that's because he doesn't shoot often outside of catch-and-shoot 3s. for all the problems with melo's game, there's no question that he's willing to shoot at all levels, that he's capable of getting shots off the bounce. that's in part because his form, while flawed, doesn't restrict him in the same way lonzo's does

i think it's pretty fair to question how much that really matters — is it better to have a dude willing to hoist up shots he's unlikely to make vs. a guy who often doesn't look at the rim because he knows how bad his shot is? but from a prospect/moldability perspective i think melo offers higher upside as a shooter (and almost a certainly a lower downside, if he can't fix his shot or his shot selection)

Fair enough. I do buy the argument that a willing shooter is better than a hesitant one. Kirk and Sato both drove/drive me crazy because they pass(ed) up wide-open shots to drive into traffic. Kirk had the horrible habit of dribbling into the paint, under-the-rim, and back around to the perimeter in a circle. I thought I was high on shrooms every time he did it. Now, I saw Nash do that too, but Nash would generally finish that with a brilliant assist to Amare/Marion inside or just step-back and shred a 3Per. Neither skill was in Kirk's basket.

I acknowledge that LaMelo's overall talent-set is enough to "zip by" on some level. But the main fear, is if you shoot below 25% from the arc on over 5 3PAs a game, there is simply no team that will allow that unless it's a Hinkie-style tank. On the other hand, if his teammates are so elated with the passes they're getting that it justifies it, then it's a different story. And he does succeed with the "push-shot" floater in highlights. I just don't imagine it's a consistent basket, when you look at his in-game %s.

All logic suggests that his shooting is going to be a nightmare. But yes, he has an elite skill and theoretically is capable of anything (he's not Ben Simmons with the jumpshot). High risk, high reward. Like I said, I'll grab popcorn if Bulls pick him. It'd be pretty ballsy of Artunas to kick off his Bulls campaign with such a move.

My take... is I actually don't find benefits in risky drafting. Get the guy with the best handles and shot, good awareness off-the-ball and above-average speed. Every draft has somebody like this in the top-10. It's when you fall in love with some secondary attribute (vertical, wing-span, defensive motor, personality) where you may over-look that crucial 1st tier.

I prefer risky trading (buying low on struggling stars or talented locker-room disruptors, gambling on proven but injured talent, log-jam casualties, etc.). With rookies, it's a really expensive asset to burn on a guy who might be a minimum contract in 4 years. I will say that LaMelo's biggest con is shooting followed by off-ball awareness and speed, and those happen to be very important for a guard. He's not strong enough to play SF, so he's gonna have to play quick guards. So if his shot isn't competent, teams leave him (so he doesn't have much driving/FTA/at-rim opportunities) and he can't provide anything off-ball (defense or catch-and-shoot), you have yourself a big problem.

[Jcool0]

Watch on YouTube

He probably thinks he can turn anyone into a 45% 3 point shooter.

[kodo]

Lonzo isn't a good example of how Ball can improve his 3P%, because the way he's done that is by creating less off the dribble and becoming more of a catch & shoot shooter. Lonzo started out in the league as a 74% assisted 3 shooter (which is already pretty high), now he's an 82% assisted 3 shooter. This is basically the same as Shaq Harrison, an 81% assisted 3 shooter.

Decent playmakers like Lowry are only 54% assisted and still hit at 35%. FVV is 69% assisted at 39%. If you have to be 80%+ assisted to make a long jumper, chances are that the ball is still better in Zach Lavine's hands, who is 54% assisted and a 38% 3P shooter.

And assuming the point of all this is the playoffs, the amount of C&S that is available drops significantly as opponents get better and more dialed in. Lowry in the playoffs has dropped to 45% assisted on 3s. He's not shooting at a good %, 33%, but the fact that he can make that shot when no good looks are available has been keeping his team alive.

For our future PG/playmaker, I'm more interested in how he can shoot off the dribble without anyone assisting him than how he knocks down corner 3s when assisted & open. We have plenty of guys who do that already and at very high %s, Arci is 39% and Shaq 38%. The problem with Chicago is we don't have anyone (other than Lavine) that can create on their own.

[sco]

Hey guys, do you guys think this is fair?

I wouldn’t mind that trade. It gives the Bulls an athletic wing. They can also draft Edwards, Hayes, or Ball with the #2 Pick.

Would be throwing in Minny’s 2021 1st round, as well.

I find the word "Success" at the top ironic. Wiggins is just like giving up to me.