Around The NBA: 2019-20 RESTART

[Dresden]

The Clippers curse is real lol

It's unfortunate Doc Rivers is part of 2 major chokes done by the Clippers (not counting Orlando Magic). Many people are going to hold his feet to the fire, but when you look at the videos of these disappointments, it's mainly the players not hitting open shots nor playing good defense. Kawhi and PG are going to have a serious stain on their resumes for this series. They played horrible for a game 7. Even PG's defense was terrible at times. That's why I'm always hesitant in ranking PG over Jimmy despite his better 3 pt shooting. Kawhi shouldn't have overlook the chemistry he had with the Raptors in order to have the convenience in LA.

It always amazes me when you see a star player like Kawhi leave a great situation for a supposedly better one. It is true that he left SA and still won with TOR. But the Spurs were falling apart anyway, while TOR still had plenty left in the tank, narrowly losing a 7 game series to BOS. Kawhi might be chasing another ring the rest of his career, whereas if he stayed in TOR, they almost definitely would have gotten by BOS and be facing MIA for a chance to go to another finals.

[Ice Man]

Even PG's defense was terrible at times. That's why I'm always hesitant in ranking him over Jimmy despite his better 3 pt shooting.

1) I had thought that PG was a good defender, but after seeing how Luka abused him and then how he played in this series, I have my doubts.

2) Butler is has been better than PG ever since Paul got hurt, except for last season when PG had a Bill Donovan renaissance. Not that real plus/minus is everything as a stat, but it's rarely completely wrong, and it has PG as being only the #58 player in the league this year. (Kawhi was #7.)

[Dresden]

Who on Denver will be able to guard Lebron?

And who on LAL will be able to guard Jamal Murray?

By the way, even though he was in no way dominant in this series, MPJ is DEN's third leading scorer in the playoffs to this point, and their second best rebounder. Not bad for a rookie, who didn't even play most of the season, and here he is, playing an important role on a team going to a conference finals....

[R3AL1TY]

I didn't realize Jerami Grant turned into a 3nD player. I guess Denver will be taking turns using him, MPJ and Craig on Lebron, but if the refs blow the whistle a lot on them for fouls, they will be in trouble. But if their team as a whole can sustain their great shooting, they have a good chance.

[dougthonus]

Who on Denver will be able to guard Lebron?

And who on LAL will be able to guard Jamal Murray?

By the way, even though he was in no way dominant in this series, MPJ is DEN's third leading scorer in the playoffs to this point, and their second best rebounder. Not bad for a rookie, who didn't even play most of the season, and here he is, playing an important role on a team going to a conference finals....

Denver doesn't really seem like it has anyone to match up with LeBron or AD. LA doesn't seem like it has anyone to matchup with Murray but probably has guys they can stick on Jokic to an extent.

Denver's got a shooters chance at this series. They can simply generate more offense than the Lakers IMO. However, the Lakers seem to have the better mismatches.

[Mech Engineer]

How did they guard Kawhi? Or PG, Morris? It will be similar. Lebron will be better at distributing than Kawhi but let's see.

[MrFortune3]

If Clippers dont win this series, its either a clippers curse or something.

That team is weak minded. They think they can show up and win with just their talent alone.
Maybe I shouldn't say weak minded but mentally fragile, the bubble affected many players differently.

George admitted to struggling through depression in the bubble quite publicly. I don't knock him for that. It's a difficult thing to come out and admit to, especially in an alpha-male sports world. At the same time, while I think all of us can feel bad for someone with depression and what they are going through, it clearly had a significant impact in his performance in a field which is an ultimate meritocracy that simply doesn't care what the reason why you fail is.

The Clippers team as a whole seemed to want to be done with the season and to take action in social justice reforms than play for a title.

[jc23]

Clips fans want Doc fired.

[kodo]

I imagine Denver plays Lebron like Kawhi. Lebron will be allowed to shoot 3s if that's what he does, but on the drive Denver will collapse and rely on weakside rotation. That's most of what current defense is now anyway, since it's illegal to reroute an offensive player.

Like all Lebron teams, LAL will need to hit shots out of Lebron drive & kicks. Against HOU they were pretty hot, shot 38% from 3. They're normally not a good 3 shooting team, bottom third in the RS. But if the roleplayers are hitting their 3s, there's really no competition for LAL as the best team.

[dougthonus]

The Clippers team as a whole seemed to want to be done with the season and to take action in social justice reforms than play for a title.

Really don't think that is true at all.

[TheStig]

I get it. And I know it takes luck. But I don't think they're the best young team or in the best place going forward. I'd rather have the Mavs or Celtic or Pels or Hawks. In my book they're nothing special at this point. We'll see what happens.

I said they were the best positioned team without a franchise caliber talent on the team. The teams you named have that type of talent on the team. That might only make them the 15th best positioned team in the league, but it was a very good step from where they were.

Anyway, I think we're generally on the same page there and only splitting hairs over semantics.

Doug, your example of no franchise talent is like saying you're the fastest runner in a potato sack. That's nice but the Olympians are running circles around you. You've elminated everyone I'd want to be lol.

[MrFortune3]

The Clippers team as a whole seemed to want to be done with the season and to take action in social justice reforms than play for a title.

Really don't think that is true at all.

You forget that the Clippers and Lakers wanted to end the season.

[Ice Man]

You forget that the Clippers and Lakers wanted to end the season.

The Lakers are playing well.

[dice]

"bubble championship"
"didn't have to face any tough teams"

things that will inevitably be said about lebron when/if lakers win title

Both are true of course (if he were to win) though the first of those is a disadvantage not a strength.

The bubble I think makes it tougher on LeBron though. It removes home court advantage which would have been really big for the Lakers as they would have had home court against every opponent they play. This is a huge advantage for teams like the Nuggets/Heat and those teams have taken advantage of it. It's a disadvantage for the Lakers and stripped away one of their advantages.

The Nuggets (52 win pace) or Celtics (55 win pace) would be the best possible teams he can face, and we generally view the Celtics record as somewhat inflated due to weak East. I don't know an easy way to check it, but statistically, it's probably one of the easiest (if not the absolute easiest) set of opponents any champion is facing.

using top 2 opponents faced in playoffs, here are the avg. opponent SRS for each champion:

1.96 47 warriors
1.68 48 bullets
4.43 49 lakers
4.45 50 lakers
2.64 51 royals
1.80 52 lakers
2.28 53 lakers
3.25 54 lakers
0.99 55 nationals
0.31 56 warriors
-0.65 57 celtics
1.35 58 hawks
1.14 59 celtics
2.27 60 celtics
2.46 61 celtics
2.22 62 celtics
1.96 63 celtics
4.42 64 celtics
0.79 65 celtics
3.46 66 celtics
7.87 67 sixers
6.48 68 celtics
5.14 69 celtics
3.10 70 knicks
2.09 71 bucks
9.31 72 lakers
7.76 73 knicks
5.02 74 celtics
4.71 75 warriors
1.60 76 celtics
4.37 77 blazers
4.04 78 bullets
4.10 79 sonics
4.14 80 lakers
5.05 81 celtics
4.40 82 lakers
4.69 83 sixers
3.92 84 celtics
4.63 85 lakers
5.64 86 celtics
3.33 87 lakers
4.53 88 lakers
5.25 89 pistons
4.61 90 pistons
4.91 91 bulls
6.14 92 bulls
6.29 93 bulls
5.58 94 rockets
7.10 95 rockets
6.40 96 bulls
6.76 97 bulls
5.99 98 bulls
4.17 99 spurs
5.80 00 lakers
7.00 01 lakers
6.90 02 lakers
7.16 03 spurs
4.64 04 pistons
5.20 05 spurs
6.10 06 heat
3.31 07 spurs
7.01 08 celtics
5.11 09 lakers
5.00 10 lakers
6.39 11 mavs
4.52 12 heat
5.01 13 heat
5.55 14 spurs
3.95 15 warriors
7.23 16 cavs
5.57 17 warriors
5.55 18 warriors
7.23 19 raptors

2.86 20 lakers (if defeat heat in finals)
4.48 20 lakers (celtics)

by dynasty:

6.08 MJ bulls
5.96 phil lakers
5.08 pops spurs
5.02 warriors
4.91 or 5.31 lebron
4.21 magic lakers
2.70 russell celtics

[dougthonus]

Doug, your example of no franchise talent is like saying you're the fastest runner in a potato sack. That's nice but the Olympians are running circles around you. You've elminated everyone I'd want to be lol.

Well more like you have no Olympic talent but you have the best U20 team in the world.

Either way, I agree, I'd much rather be a team with a franchise talent, of course. However, they weren't a team I wanted to be prior to trading Westbrook and George. They were a team with talent that was obviously no where near good enough that was going to fade quickly. They pivoted away from that into a team that is much better positioned.

The Bulls are a team that I wouldn't want to be, I'd be absolutely floored and incredibly amped if we could improve our situation as much in one year as OKC did.

[dougthonus]

"bubble championship"
"didn't have to face any tough teams"

things that will inevitably be said about lebron when/if lakers win title

Both are true of course (if he were to win) though the first of those is a disadvantage not a strength.

The bubble I think makes it tougher on LeBron though. It removes home court advantage which would have been really big for the Lakers as they would have had home court against every opponent they play. This is a huge advantage for teams like the Nuggets/Heat and those teams have taken advantage of it. It's a disadvantage for the Lakers and stripped away one of their advantages.

The Nuggets (52 win pace) or Celtics (55 win pace) would be the best possible teams he can face, and we generally view the Celtics record as somewhat inflated due to weak East. I don't know an easy way to check it, but statistically, it's probably one of the easiest (if not the absolute easiest) set of opponents any champion is facing.

using top 2 opponents faced in playoffs, here are the avg. opponent SRS for each champion:

1.96 47 warriors
1.68 48 bullets
4.43 49 lakers
4.45 50 lakers
2.64 51 royals
1.80 52 lakers
2.28 53 lakers
3.25 54 lakers
0.99 55 nationals
0.31 56 warriors
-0.65 57 celtics
1.35 58 hawks
1.14 59 celtics
2.27 60 celtics
2.46 61 celtics
2.22 62 celtics
1.96 63 celtics
4.42 64 celtics
0.79 65 celtics
3.46 66 celtics
7.87 67 sixers
6.48 68 celtics
5.14 69 celtics
3.10 70 knicks
2.09 71 bucks
9.31 72 lakers
7.76 73 knicks
5.02 74 celtics
4.71 75 warriors
1.60 76 celtics
4.37 77 blazers
4.04 78 bullets
4.10 79 sonics
4.14 80 lakers
5.05 81 celtics
4.40 82 lakers
4.69 83 sixers
3.92 84 celtics
4.63 85 lakers
5.64 86 celtics
3.33 87 lakers
4.53 88 lakers
5.25 89 pistons
4.61 90 pistons
4.91 91 bulls
6.14 92 bulls
6.29 93 bulls
5.58 94 rockets
7.10 95 rockets
6.40 96 bulls
6.76 97 bulls
5.99 98 bulls
4.17 99 spurs
5.80 00 lakers
7.00 01 lakers
6.90 02 lakers
7.16 03 spurs
4.64 04 pistons
5.20 05 spurs
6.10 06 heat
3.31 07 spurs
7.01 08 celtics
5.11 09 lakers
5.00 10 lakers
6.39 11 mavs
4.52 12 heat
5.01 13 heat
5.55 14 spurs
3.95 15 warriors
7.23 16 cavs
5.57 17 warriors
5.55 18 warriors
7.23 19 raptors

2.86 20 lakers (if defeat heat in finals)
4.48 20 lakers (celtics)

by dynasty:

6.08 MJ bulls
5.96 phil lakers
5.08 pops spurs
5.02 warriors
4.91 or 5.31 lebron
4.21 magic lakers
2.70 russell celtics

Looks like if they play the Heat that they'd have the easiest SRS opponents in the modern era. You'd have to go back to the Kareem Bucks to find a lower one.

However, that also shows that SRS isn't necessarily a good gauge of this. I wouldn't view their path twice as hard if they play the Celtics vs the Heat, but the SRS number is radically different, but that's because the Heat are playing above their season SRS due to acquisitions made. Not sure how many times that would have changed this number historically for similar reasons.

Appreciate the time and effort to put that together. Even with the Celtics, its definitely an easier run overall than most.

[MrFortune3]

You forget that the Clippers and Lakers wanted to end the season.

The Lakers are playing well.

The Lakers are locked in on their goal to win. The Clippers are not. LeBron basically took the mindset that "If I can't get people to agree to end the season, I'm damn sure going to win a title"

The Clippers had PG13 with his depression issues, Lou Williams and Harrell lost close loved ones. Their mindset has appeared to be "Let's just hurry up and get this over with".

Lakers want to end the season with a title, Clippers just wanted to end the season ASAP.

[Andi Obst]

The Clippers had PG13 with his depression issues, Lou Williams and Harrell lost close loved ones. Their mindset has appeared to be "Let's just hurry up and get this over with".

Lakers want to end the season with a title, Clippers just wanted to end the season ASAP.

The issues you name are definitely key reasons for why they under-performed (though there are many more), but I didn't get the feeling that they wanted this. You don't go up 3-1 in a series and just decide "nah, I'd rather go home". They just collapsed and got outplayed.

[MrFortune3]

The Clippers had PG13 with his depression issues, Lou Williams and Harrell lost close loved ones. Their mindset has appeared to be "Let's just hurry up and get this over with".

Lakers want to end the season with a title, Clippers just wanted to end the season ASAP.

The issues you name are definitely key reasons for why they under-performed (though there are many more), but I didn't get the feeling that they wanted this. You don't go up 3-1 in a series and just decide "nah, I'd rather go home". They just collapsed and got outplayed.

Could be, but they have given off a weird vibe even up 3-1 was that their minds were somewhere else. Even the commentators have pointed to a lack of focus on the part of the Clippers.
With that being said, the Clippers had lacked true chemistry nearly all season long due to injuries and load management. So maybe that caught up to them more than anything else.

They just seemed to be a team going through the motions and relying on talent rather than dialed in and trying everything to win.

[TheStig]

Doug, your example of no franchise talent is like saying you're the fastest runner in a potato sack. That's nice but the Olympians are running circles around you. You've elminated everyone I'd want to be lol.

Well more like you have no Olympic talent but you have the best U20 team in the world.

Either way, I agree, I'd much rather be a team with a franchise talent, of course. However, they weren't a team I wanted to be prior to trading Westbrook and George. They were a team with talent that was obviously no where near good enough that was going to fade quickly. They pivoted away from that into a team that is much better positioned.

The Bulls are a team that I wouldn't want to be, I'd be absolutely floored and incredibly amped if we could improve our situation as much in one year as OKC did.

I have no idea what a U20 team is lol

See I disagree. I'd rather have a solid playoff team and ride that. Look at the Mavs. They had that type of team and eventually broke through. And they had a decade of being a solid playoff team even if they have stumbles like being beat by the 8th seed warriors. OKC made the Melo deal and obviously missed but they had some assets to take another swing. The problem was the cheap ass owner who wouldn't pay the LT for Harden didn't want to pay for a middling playoff team past a year. I think it's very hard to win in OKC and I would find it very doubtful they reach the finals in the next 20 years. I don't think a bunch of 20's picks will make them more than a 1st/2nd round loser they were with Russ/PG.

I think the Bulls will be just about as good as OKC next year. I think AK needs to be allowed to tank for a couple of years and get some draft capital. I hope he doesn't jump the process and try to turn us into the 8th seed. I think if you can get some draft capital, get a real good coach and shuffle the boards and shake out some assets, the Bulls will be back on track. My worry is that there will be a rush to the playoffs like there always is and we get the #10 pick.