Political Roundtable Part XXIX

[pancakes3]

It’s interesting because it’s in Trump’s personal interest to keep it open as incentive for pro life nose holders to vote for him but it’s in the Party’s interest to secure the supermajority on the bench.

[miller31time]

How many dissenting votes do we need from Republicans to make sure the Trump SC Nominee isn’t confirmed? Is it 4?

Currently, we have...

Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Collins (R-Maine)
Romney (R-Utah)

And if 4 is correct, we need one more defector. Looking particularly at Grassley (who claims to be a constitutionalist and in 2018 said he wouldn’t support a SC appointment the year before an election), Graham (who I felt nauseous simply typing....but he DID forcefully say on camera that he would not support a SC appointment during an election year, even going so far as to say “hold the tape!”), any Republican Senator who is up for re-election in a swing state and needs some Democratic support, and any Republican Senator who is retiring and would like to go out on good terms with Jesus.

[AFM]

Awesome system we have where you have to cross your fingers and pray that your favorite 90 year old justice doesn’t die during the wrong 4 year period. Maybe the founders weren’t too bright after all.

[Pointgod]

How many dissenting votes do we need from Republicans to make sure the Trump SC Nominee isn’t confirmed? Is it 4?

Currently, we have...

Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Collins (R-Maine)
Romney (R-Utah)

And if 4 is correct, we need one more defector. Looking particularly at Grassley (who claims to be a constitutionalist and in 2018 said he wouldn’t support a SC appointment the year before an election), Graham (who I felt nauseous simply typing....but he DID forcefully say on camera that he would not support a SC appointment during an election year, even going so far as to say “hold the tape!”), any Republican Senator who is up for re-election in a swing state and needs some Democratic support, and any Republican Senator who is retiring and would like to go out on good terms with Jesus.

Graham already backed down like a bitch. I don’t trust any of these Republicans to keep their word. Remember Jeff Flake? How many retiring Senators voted against ANY witnesses during the impeachment trial? You’d think Cory Gardner would at least grow a conscience or the great norm observer Ben Sasse. They’re all cowards until proven otherwise except Mitt.

[pancakes3]

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[long suffrin' boulez fan]

How many dissenting votes do we need from Republicans to make sure the Trump SC Nominee isn’t confirmed? Is it 4?

Currently, we have...

Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Collins (R-Maine)
Romney (R-Utah)

And if 4 is correct, we need one more defector. Looking particularly at Grassley (who claims to be a constitutionalist and in 2018 said he wouldn’t support a SC appointment the year before an election), Graham (who I felt nauseous simply typing....but he DID forcefully say on camera that he would not support a SC appointment during an election year, even going so far as to say “hold the tape!”), any Republican Senator who is up for re-election in a swing state and needs some Democratic support, and any Republican Senator who is retiring and would like to go out on good terms with Jesus.

Has Romney actually signaled his intent. I’m counting Collins and Murkowski as firm. Grassley as the next most likely then potentially Mitt.

Gardner? Maybe in order to get back in the running in Co.

It’s a tall order. But our republic may well be riding on it.

A Trump court reinstalling him as President. That would be very bad... like really bad.

[pancakes3]

it's bad when your roof collapses, for sure. but the problem is that 40% of our nation are figurative termites.

[miller31time]

How many dissenting votes do we need from Republicans to make sure the Trump SC Nominee isn’t confirmed? Is it 4?

Currently, we have...

Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Collins (R-Maine)
Romney (R-Utah)

And if 4 is correct, we need one more defector. Looking particularly at Grassley (who claims to be a constitutionalist and in 2018 said he wouldn’t support a SC appointment the year before an election), Graham (who I felt nauseous simply typing....but he DID forcefully say on camera that he would not support a SC appointment during an election year, even going so far as to say “hold the tape!”), any Republican Senator who is up for re-election in a swing state and needs some Democratic support, and any Republican Senator who is retiring and would like to go out on good terms with Jesus.

Has Romney actually signaled his intent. I’m counting Collins and Murkowski as firm. Grassley as the next most likely then potentially Mitt.

Gardner? Maybe in order to get back in the running in Co.

It’s a tall order. But our republic may well be riding on it.

A Trump court reinstalling him as President. That would be very bad... like really bad.

I could have sworn I read that he did but now I can’t find anything. So I guess we’re back down to 2, though I think he’ll eventually come to that conclusion.

[Ruzious]

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They're protesting against people voting? Wth?

[bsilver]

Susan Collins is not a sure thing. Why does she want to delay a vote until after the election? To not alienate undecideds by voting for the Trump nominee, or to not piss off Trumpers by voting against the nominee. It's not clear.

Biden's being a wimp, which is not unexpected. His just saying that the next president should make the next pick, but being against expanding the court if Trump gets his pick. Maybe he actually would expand the court, but he wants to play to the middle rather than the base.

[miller31time]

Call me crazy but the more I think about it, the best thing politically for Democrats might just be the Republicans jamming though a SC appointee right now.

Why? Because a couple things become more likely....

1. Democratic voters become apoplectic (to borrow a Steve Buckhantz term) and show up to the voting booth in larger numbers than were originally predicted. Biden likely wins (in my opinion).

2. Swing State Republicans probably lose their seat because they made a choice that only resonated with their base and not the general electorate of their state. Democrats take the senate because of this (again, all in my opinion).

3. With a newly elected Biden, a Democratic Senate and maintaining the House of Representatives, Democrats not only have the physical ability but now the public support and political clout to eliminate the filibuster, push through PR and DC into statehood (giving the Dems 4 extra Senators), as well as extending the Supreme Court.

I know what I wrote reads like a liberal fan fiction but I honestly think it could go down that way. Not sure I can see all 3 things coming to fruition if the Republicans DON’T push though the SC appointee.

[JWizmentality]

I’m so sad it hurts.

And I’m scared for the country.

What the heck will this next six week cluster frick hold?

No doubt Trump will make a meal of this.

Well we all know what Mitch will do. Biden better show some backbone and say if the GOP attempt to fill the seat he will expand the court.

Either way this will be a blood bath...and quick frankly exactly what this country deserves.

Nope he should not do that. What Biden needs to do is keep hammering home Mitch’s own words and the words of Lindsey Graham. Treat it as a direct attack on the American people and explain bluntly the implications that it will have on Republican Senators up for re-election. Finally tie it back to the coronavirus package that’s sitting on McConnell’s desk. Playing your hand about packing the courts just gives Republicans another talking point and will turn voters off both parties. Keep the focus on McConnell and Republicans.

And that's not enough. Have you not seen the last 4 years? Shame? You think shame will win this fight?

[dobrojim]

it's bad when your roof collapses, for sure. but the problem is that 40% of our nation are figurative termites.

That is the larger problem, isn't it.

[montestewart]

Well we all know what Mitch will do. Biden better show some backbone and say if the GOP attempt to fill the seat he will expand the court.

Either way this will be a blood bath...and quick frankly exactly what this country deserves.

Nope he should not do that. What Biden needs to do is keep hammering home Mitch’s own words and the words of Lindsey Graham. Treat it as a direct attack on the American people and explain bluntly the implications that it will have on Republican Senators up for re-election. Finally tie it back to the coronavirus package that’s sitting on McConnell’s desk. Playing your hand about packing the courts just gives Republicans another talking point and will turn voters off both parties. Keep the focus on McConnell and Republicans.

And that's not enough. Have you not seen the last 4 years? Shame? You think shame will win this fight?

This reminds me of the Wizards facing a big game. Regardless of my desired outcome, I'm not counting on anything.

Expanding the court starts a precedent that the opposition might use to further expand with the same aim. But the opposing party has, in the past four years, already established and articulated a principle, and then abandoned it, as it suited their needs. Not sure what the answer is, but it now is clear that SC justices should only resign if they believe the President will nominate and the Senate will confirm a jurist they find acceptable, which means justices will be younger and younger, and more and more detached from reality. And very rich after they retire. Every big law firm would love to include a former SC justice in the name. Gore, Sutch, & Gorsuch?

[dobrojim]

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They're protesting against people voting? Wth?

(at the risk of explaining something most here already realize)

They're lying to themselves if they think they are doing something on principle.
They've been told 'the enemy' is trying to steal the election by voting, OMG,
so they've decided that only people that are willing to vote procedurally
in the same way they do should be allowed to vote.

[dobrojim]

Nope he should not do that. What Biden needs to do is keep hammering home Mitch’s own words and the words of Lindsey Graham. Treat it as a direct attack on the American people and explain bluntly the implications that it will have on Republican Senators up for re-election. Finally tie it back to the coronavirus package that’s sitting on McConnell’s desk. Playing your hand about packing the courts just gives Republicans another talking point and will turn voters off both parties. Keep the focus on McConnell and Republicans.

And that's not enough. Have you not seen the last 4 years? Shame? You think shame will win this fight?

This reminds me of the Wizards facing a big game. Regardless of my desired outcome, I'm not counting on anything.

Expanding the court starts a precedent that the opposition might use to further expand with the same aim. But the opposing party has, in the past four years, already established and articulated a principle, and then abandoned it, as it suited their needs. Not sure what the answer is, but it now is clear that SC justices should only resign if they believe the President will nominate and the Senate will confirm a jurist they find acceptable, which means justices will be younger and younger, and more and more detached from reality. And very rich after they retire. Every big law firm would love to include a former SC justice in the name. Gore, Sutch, & Gorsuch?

One potential remedy would be to continue lifetime tenure, but limit that tenure to simply
being a judge. A Justice could be 'demoted' back to a lower court after a set number of years,
perhaps somewhere between 10-20 years. Or re-approved by a supermajority perhaps after that
initial term. Are there problems with this? Sure. But relative to other issues, perhaps not relatively
sever enough to not at least consider.

[Pointgod]

Well we all know what Mitch will do. Biden better show some backbone and say if the GOP attempt to fill the seat he will expand the court.

Either way this will be a blood bath...and quick frankly exactly what this country deserves.

Nope he should not do that. What Biden needs to do is keep hammering home Mitch’s own words and the words of Lindsey Graham. Treat it as a direct attack on the American people and explain bluntly the implications that it will have on Republican Senators up for re-election. Finally tie it back to the coronavirus package that’s sitting on McConnell’s desk. Playing your hand about packing the courts just gives Republicans another talking point and will turn voters off both parties. Keep the focus on McConnell and Republicans.

And that's not enough. Have you not seen the last 4 years? Shame? You think shame will win this fight?

Listen this appointment is going to go through either before the election or during the lame duck session. The Democrats need to inflict as much pain to vulnerable Republicans coming up for the vote. Susan Collins, Corey Gardner, Tillis, you have 2 seats up for grabs on in Georgia, Joni Ernst in Iowa etc. They can keep their careers or keep the Supreme Court seat, if McConnell rams through the vote before the election they can’t keep both. Don’t forget these Senators also have to think of their own self interests and it’s possible they cave to pressure.

This will motivate and galvanize Democratic voters to come out and vote. There are also moderate and right leaning voters who find taking the will of the people away from the election completely distasteful. You have Jeff Flake and other Republicans already coming out saying that they should wait till after the election. What you shouldn’t do is talk about packing the courts which will turn voters, even those who lean left into thinking both sides are distasteful. Biden needs those votes, they can’t afford to sit at home. Twitter and Reddit is not real life. Even on Reddit, I’ve seen Democrats who hate the idea packing the courts. It’s something you can do when you have power but it would absolutely be idiotic to turn it into a talking point that will turn out Republican voters.

[payitforward]

Expanding the court is a terrible idea for all the reasons mentioned. Pointgod has it nailed. Just make them eat it. Make them decide they want it no matter what.

Then, yeah, find 4 Republican senators willing to save their careers by voting against it.

[Pointgod]

Expanding the court is a terrible idea for all the reasons mentioned. Pointgod has it nailed. Just make them eat it. Make them decide they want it no matter what.

Then, yeah, find 4 Republican senators willing to save their careers by voting against it.

I know that emotions are raw and everyone is pissed off but Democrats need to be smart about this. I find it funny that Progressives always complain that Schumer and Pelosi, but I have no doubt that Progressive leaders would run into the Republican buzz saws head first every time. Abolish ICE, Defund the Police, Packing the Courts are not policy positions you want to take to win an election and obtain power.

Biden just have one of his strongest speeches talked directly to Republican Senators. Find their conscience, I’m doubtful it will work but that’s the tone a President needs to strike. Let other members of Congress be the attack dogs. Lastly filling the seat before November is not popular with the majority of the country. Democrats need to be smart and make this painful for Republicans.

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[pancakes3]

far left libs aren't proposing abolish ICE and defund police because it's the politically savvy thing to do, but because it's the right thing to do.

ICE was created in 2003 as part of the Bush administration's comprehensive, unfounded, racist reaction to 9/11. It serves no legitimate purpose, and instead is in practice, an authorized, institutional projection of white nationalism.

sorry if these are uncomfortable truths but if you fancy yourself a principled, adult-in-the-room center-left pragmatist, you can do yourself and America a favor by re-examining the "far left" proposals critically instead of dismissing it as outside of what you perceive to be the overton window.

(not necessarily directed at you pointgod but i'm very frustrated by centrists at the moment)