OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[dice]

Interesting research points to dining out as a leading cause of COVID infections (other than being in close personal contact with someone who is contagious, such as living in the same house). Not good news for restaurants:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-finds-link-between-covid-19-cases-and-eating-at-restaurants-but-experts-say-indoor-dining-can-be-done-safely-190351086.html

yeah, they say that there's a significant difference in infection rates depending on whether a person says they have been dining out. the same cannot be said at this point for gyms. of course, this is based on surveys and not in depth study. but this is just more anecdotal evidence for the power of masks, which obviously can be worn less diligently while eating than while working out. plus, dining out with others is inherently a social experience that involves conversing, which disperses germs further than, say, overexerted people who uncover their noses at the gym do

it's a good thing that the virus isn't transmitted as easily on commonly touched surfaces as experts thought it was early on. otherwise i can't imagine many gyms being/staying open

[Dresden]

A new theory on how COVID affects the body. It has good explanatory power as to why COVID causes such a wide variety of symptoms, and would have important implications for treatment if proven to be correct. However, it's just a theory at this point....

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

[transplant]

I'm hoping that the fact that its been over 48 hours since there's been a post on this thread is a good thing.

Keep being smart everyone.

[Dez]

Slowly started to ease restrictions in Victoria, more in regional Victoria but small steps in metropolitan Melbourne.

42 new cases overnight, so we're definitely on top of it.

Incredibly frustrated that I've been ridiculously classed as metropolitan Melbourne all of a sudden given that we've always been regional/rural Victoria. There's 4 active cases in my municipality and they're all down towards what is actually metropolitan, our state government has been incredibly lazy with their zoning for these restrictions.

[Dresden]

Are we not fortunate to have a president who knows more about public health than the head of the CDC?:

"The CDC director also made headlines for an exchange with Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., on the topic of face masks. Reed asked why Trump was not promoting the use of face masks to slow the spread of coronavirus.

“I’m not going to comment directly about the president. But I am going to comment as the CDC director that these face masks are the most powerful public health tool we have and I will continue to appeal to all Americans to embrace these face masks,” Redfield said. “If we did for 6, 8, 10, 12 weeks we’d bring this pandemic under control. I might even go so far as to say that this face covering is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent and if I don’t get an immune response the vaccine’s not going to protect me. This face mask will.”

In his press conference, Trump claimed he knew better. “Number one, it’s not more effective, by any means, than a vaccine, and I called him about that. Those were the two things I discussed with him. And I believe that if you ask him, he would probably say that he didn’t understand the question,” Trump said."

[dice]

Are we not fortunate to have a president who knows more about public health than the head of the CDC?:

"The CDC director also made headlines for an exchange with Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., on the topic of face masks. Reed asked why Trump was not promoting the use of face masks to slow the spread of coronavirus.

“I’m not going to comment directly about the president. But I am going to comment as the CDC director that these face masks are the most powerful public health tool we have and I will continue to appeal to all Americans to embrace these face masks,” Redfield said. “If we did for 6, 8, 10, 12 weeks we’d bring this pandemic under control. I might even go so far as to say that this face covering is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent and if I don’t get an immune response the vaccine’s not going to protect me. This face mask will.”

In his press conference, Trump claimed he knew better. “Number one, it’s not more effective, by any means, than a vaccine, and I called him about that. Those were the two things I discussed with him. And I believe that if you ask him, he would probably say that he didn’t understand the question,” Trump said."

CDC director also said that he does expect a vaccine to be introduced by the end of the year, but assuming efficacy it will have to be phased in, so we would not be back to normal as a society until late summer 2021. trump said he is mistaken

also learned today that, if COVID-19 were to ravage the US population the way the spanish flu did 100 years ago, it would result in over 93 million infections and over 2 million deaths. we're pushing 7 mil and 0.2 mil, respectively. reported, anyway. surely the actual infections are much higher

[Dez]

F*** I'm so glad to live in Australia rather than America, that lunatic is going to kill you all.

28 new cases today in Victoria, another new low for a couple of months.

[Dresden]

F*** I'm so glad to live in Australia rather than America, that lunatic is going to kill you all.

28 new cases today in Victoria, another new low for a couple of months.

Our biggest health crisis right now is not the Corona virus, it's having a fool in the White House....

[Dresden]

"Speaking to reporters at the White House late Wednesday, Trump argued the United States is handling the virus well "despite the fact that the blue states had tremendous death rates.

"If you take the blue states out," he continued, "we're at a level that I don't think anybody in the world would be at. We're really at a very low level but some of the states – they were blue states, and blue-state managed."

New York, California, and New Jersey – all blue states in presidential elections – were among the states with the highest number of deaths from coronavirus. But they are also the states with the largest populations in the country, and they were the first to experience and tackle major outbreaks of the disease.

Other states with a high number of deaths include Texas, a red state, and Florida, a battleground. Those states are also among the nation's most populous."

I wonder why Trump never talks about the % of the US GDP that comes from economic activity in Blue States as opposed to Red States. Or the % of the federal budget that is paid for by Blue States v. Red States. Or the amount of government spending going to Red States v. Blue States. I'd love to hear a reporter ask him about that. I'm sure he doesn't even know the numbers.

[dice]

"Speaking to reporters at the White House late Wednesday, Trump argued the United States is handling the virus well "despite the fact that the blue states had tremendous death rates.

"If you take the blue states out," he continued, "we're at a level that I don't think anybody in the world would be at. We're really at a very low level but some of the states – they were blue states, and blue-state managed."

i'd love to hear what it is that he thinks those states did wrong early in the pandemic (didn't shut down fast enough? didn't preempt the CDC's recommendation and require masks sooner? didn't produce their own PPE and testing that the federal government failed to provide?). and why the red states have done so much worse since the first wave

[Dresden]

Once again, the reality of the virus supersedes ignorant wishful thinking:

"When coronavirus cases began increasing in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, in late July, Pastor Paul Van Noy prayed with his congregation that the city council would not pass a mask mandate.

"I don't want to be told I have to wear a mask," he said at the lectern. "We're adults and we don't need the government to tell us what to do."

A little over a month later, he and his wife contracted the virus and he has landed in the hospital's intensive care unit struggling to breathe, he said in a statement this week.

"I haven't taken this covid seriously enough," his wife, Brenda, said on Facebook Sept. 4, shortly after her husband was admitted to the ICU.

[transplant]

That there is any controversy whatsoever over mask-wearing (and there obviously is a HUGE controversy over mask-wearing) is one of the great head-scratchers of my 66 year life. The science of it could not be more clear. WTF!

[Dez]

I honestly don't see how people can keep denying the effectiveness of masks or any face covering? It's not even high level science, it's just basic level common sense science.

I absolutely despise wearing the damn thing especially given my job (which I'm thankful I can still do given our lockdown rules) but a minor inconvenience is well worth the ability to do my job and actually be able to interact with people given that outside work hours that's not possible.

21 new cases in Victoria today and got our daily average over 14 days down to 39 per day, apparently ahead of the model the state government is using to measure our expected progress during stage 4 and our easing of restrictions.

Still extremely salty I'm classed as metropolitan while I live in regional Victoria that has 3 active cases in my municipality none of which are near our end of the municipality.

[Dresden]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/199-acrylic-helmet-hepa-filters-123900934.html

I think this could really be a good idea for air travel. Especially for those traveling to visit elderly relatives. Just wear disposable gloves and change them whenever you have to use the bathroom, and you'd cut your risk of sitting in a crowded airplane for hours to almost zero. If they could fit it with a camelback like device so you could sip some water while wearing it, it would be perfect.

[Dresden]

New Data Coming Out from the UK:

Almost one third of Covid deaths in July and August 'primarily caused by other conditions'
Sarah Knapton, The Telegraph

Fri, September 18, 2020, 8:54 AM PDT

Coronavirus was not the main cause of death for nearly one third of recorded Covid-19 victims in July and August, research by Oxford University has found.

Analysis shows that around 30 percent of people included in the coronavirus death toll by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) over the summer months had died primarily from other conditions.

It means someone who suffered a heart attack, or even died in a road traffic accident, may have been included in the figures if they had also tested positive for coronavirus at some point, or if doctors believed the virus may have exacerbated their condition.

Throughout the entire pandemic, around one in 13 people currently classed as Covid-19 victims did not have the disease as an underlying cause of death...

"At the beginning of the epidemic we only saw this in a few cases, but this is increasing because a lot more people have now had Covid," he said. "The true death rate is an important thing to know because it gives us an idea of impact. Clearly Covid was having a massive impact in March and April, but we need to know if the disease is now taking the same toll as before.

"The impact now seems to be lessening, and if that is true – which it certainly looks like at the moment, because there doesn’t seem to be the same fatality rate (see graphic below, showing fatality rates across Europe) – then that will guide decisions in managing risk, so it's important to get this number right."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-one-third-covid-deaths-155426293.html

[transplant]

New Data Coming Out from the UK:

Almost one third of Covid deaths in July and August 'primarily caused by other conditions'
Sarah Knapton, The Telegraph

Fri, September 18, 2020, 8:54 AM PDT

Coronavirus was not the main cause of death for nearly one third of recorded Covid-19 victims in July and August, research by Oxford University has found.

Analysis shows that around 30 percent of people included in the coronavirus death toll by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) over the summer months had died primarily from other conditions.

It means someone who suffered a heart attack, or even died in a road traffic accident, may have been included in the figures if they had also tested positive for coronavirus at some point, or if doctors believed the virus may have exacerbated their condition.

Throughout the entire pandemic, around one in 13 people currently classed as Covid-19 victims did not have the disease as an underlying cause of death...

"At the beginning of the epidemic we only saw this in a few cases, but this is increasing because a lot more people have now had Covid," he said. "The true death rate is an important thing to know because it gives us an idea of impact. Clearly Covid was having a massive impact in March and April, but we need to know if the disease is now taking the same toll as before.

"The impact now seems to be lessening, and if that is true – which it certainly looks like at the moment, because there doesn’t seem to be the same fatality rate (see graphic below, showing fatality rates across Europe) – then that will guide decisions in managing risk, so it's important to get this number right."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-one-third-covid-deaths-155426293.html

I think it was back in May when the CDC changed their criteria in determining when deaths would be included in the COVID numbers. As I recall, at that point, any deaths of COVID-positive patients where respiratory failure occurred would be counted as COVID deaths, even if pneumonia or heart failure was the ultimate cause of death. I didn't (and don't) have a problem with this, but if they're counting ANY deaths of COVID-positive individuals (car crash...c'mon) who happen to die, that's deceptive. And yes, an accurate death rate is important to know.

[dice]

New Data Coming Out from the UK:

Almost one third of Covid deaths in July and August 'primarily caused by other conditions'
Sarah Knapton, The Telegraph

Fri, September 18, 2020, 8:54 AM PDT

Coronavirus was not the main cause of death for nearly one third of recorded Covid-19 victims in July and August, research by Oxford University has found.

Analysis shows that around 30 percent of people included in the coronavirus death toll by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) over the summer months had died primarily from other conditions.

It means someone who suffered a heart attack, or even died in a road traffic accident, may have been included in the figures if they had also tested positive for coronavirus at some point, or if doctors believed the virus may have exacerbated their condition.

Throughout the entire pandemic, around one in 13 people currently classed as Covid-19 victims did not have the disease as an underlying cause of death...

"At the beginning of the epidemic we only saw this in a few cases, but this is increasing because a lot more people have now had Covid," he said. "The true death rate is an important thing to know because it gives us an idea of impact. Clearly Covid was having a massive impact in March and April, but we need to know if the disease is now taking the same toll as before.

"The impact now seems to be lessening, and if that is true – which it certainly looks like at the moment, because there doesn’t seem to be the same fatality rate (see graphic below, showing fatality rates across Europe) – then that will guide decisions in managing risk, so it's important to get this number right."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-one-third-covid-deaths-155426293.html

I think it was back in May when the CDC changed their criteria in determining when deaths would be included in the COVID numbers. As I recall, at that point, any deaths of COVID-positive patients where respiratory failure occurred would be counted as COVID deaths, even if pneumonia or heart failure was the ultimate cause of death. I didn't (and don't) have a problem with this, but if they're counting ANY deaths of COVID-positive individuals (car crash...c'mon) who happen to die, that's deceptive. And yes, an accurate death rate is important to know.

no matter how they count it and what official number they put out there, we'll pretty much know the real answer within a particular range by counting excess deaths. and the official number is almost certainly an undercount right now

[Dresden]

New Data Coming Out from the UK:

Almost one third of Covid deaths in July and August 'primarily caused by other conditions'
Sarah Knapton, The Telegraph

Fri, September 18, 2020, 8:54 AM PDT

Coronavirus was not the main cause of death for nearly one third of recorded Covid-19 victims in July and August, research by Oxford University has found.

Analysis shows that around 30 percent of people included in the coronavirus death toll by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) over the summer months had died primarily from other conditions.

It means someone who suffered a heart attack, or even died in a road traffic accident, may have been included in the figures if they had also tested positive for coronavirus at some point, or if doctors believed the virus may have exacerbated their condition.

Throughout the entire pandemic, around one in 13 people currently classed as Covid-19 victims did not have the disease as an underlying cause of death...

"At the beginning of the epidemic we only saw this in a few cases, but this is increasing because a lot more people have now had Covid," he said. "The true death rate is an important thing to know because it gives us an idea of impact. Clearly Covid was having a massive impact in March and April, but we need to know if the disease is now taking the same toll as before.

"The impact now seems to be lessening, and if that is true – which it certainly looks like at the moment, because there doesn’t seem to be the same fatality rate (see graphic below, showing fatality rates across Europe) – then that will guide decisions in managing risk, so it's important to get this number right."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/almost-one-third-covid-deaths-155426293.html

I think it was back in May when the CDC changed their criteria in determining when deaths would be included in the COVID numbers. As I recall, at that point, any deaths of COVID-positive patients where respiratory failure occurred would be counted as COVID deaths, even if pneumonia or heart failure was the ultimate cause of death. I didn't (and don't) have a problem with this, but if they're counting ANY deaths of COVID-positive individuals (car crash...c'mon) who happen to die, that's deceptive. And yes, an accurate death rate is important to know.

no matter how they count it and what official number they put out there, we'll pretty much know the real answer within a particular range by counting excess deaths. and the official number is almost certainly an undercount right now

Is the method of counting excess deaths widely accepted as an accurate measure of things? I recall that when a study came out that used that method which showed that in excess of 3 million Iraqi's died in the aftermath of the US invasion, it was widely panned (mainly by republicans/conservatives) as being a questionable methodology.

[dice]

I think it was back in May when the CDC changed their criteria in determining when deaths would be included in the COVID numbers. As I recall, at that point, any deaths of COVID-positive patients where respiratory failure occurred would be counted as COVID deaths, even if pneumonia or heart failure was the ultimate cause of death. I didn't (and don't) have a problem with this, but if they're counting ANY deaths of COVID-positive individuals (car crash...c'mon) who happen to die, that's deceptive. And yes, an accurate death rate is important to know.

no matter how they count it and what official number they put out there, we'll pretty much know the real answer within a particular range by counting excess deaths. and the official number is almost certainly an undercount right now

Is the method of counting excess deaths widely accepted as an accurate measure of things? I recall that when a study came out that used that method which showed that in excess of 3 million Iraqi's died in the aftermath of the US invasion, it was widely panned (mainly by republicans/conservatives) as being a questionable methodology.

in the case of a major event like war or a pandemic, it's absolutely reliable in a stable nation like ours. annual deaths in USA (in millions):

2.63 2014
2.71 2015
2.74 2016
2.81 2017
2.84 2018

can't find 2019 data, so maybe it has yet to be released, but once it is it will be possible to project what should have been the 2020 total within a few tens of thousands. but the actual total will be hundreds of thousands more

it would be harder to use excess deaths for 2021, obviously, because 2020 will skew the data considerably

if you're talking about MILLIONS of excess deaths as with iraq, it's extraordinarily difficult to find wiggle room for dispute

[dice]

as most are acutely aware, the president will soon be filling the vacant supreme court seat of the late, great, notorious RBG and creating a 6-3 conservative majority on the court. the court is currently considering yet another case being brought before them in an attempt to cripple the ACA (obamacare). if successful and the law falls apart, it would restore the ability of insurers to deny coverage to those with pre-existing conditions. it would eliminate the free preventative care (such as VACCINES) that the law mandated. it would eliminate premium subsidies and expanded medicaid for low-to-moderate income households. and, of course, it would send the uninsured rate soaring, potentially to record highs given the number of people out of work:



of course, this would be disasterous in ordinary times, never mind during a once-in-a-century pandemic. fortunately, there is a remedy. the republicans, who currently control the senate 53-47 despite democrats nationwide garnering more votes (sound familiar?) nuked the filibuster in order to get trump's prior two SC nominees through with a simple majority. if the democrats win back both the senate and the presidency in november, they plan to return serve and nuke the filibuster on ALL legislation, which would pave the way for further health reform. this would presumably mean a government insurance option (medicare for all who want it), which could not be included in the ACA...because of the filibuster. so, if you want to continue to protect those with pre-existing conditions, want more people to have access to free vaccines and other preventative care, and want to maintain/expand the number of insured americans at affordable rates, see my signature!