Prospect Thread: Deni Avdija

[MasterIchiro]

Israeli Premier league has James Young as the scoring leader. Amar'e, Casspi and Acy played alongside Avdija. What kind of competition did Wiseman face at Memphis?

The Euroleague numbers are still a smaller sample and Avdija still won tourney MVP. The Israel Premier sample is sufficient to give me confidence in his shooting. The arc is further than NCAA and he hit 35%, won league MVP and was the focal point of opposing defense. Coming from the forward position, I feel confident he's a threat.

[MasterIchiro]

Deni shot 59.6% from 2-point range in his EuroLeague games. And he did it from everywhere unlike a mop up big. I'm finished.

[yosemiteben]

Deni shot 59.6% from 2-point range in his EuroLeague games. And he did it from everywhere unlike a mop up big. I'm finished.

Based on his FGA stats, doesn't that mean he essentially made one every other game? Do you really not see why that might not be viewed as particularly compelling?

[yosemiteben]

Israeli Premier league has James Young as the scoring leader. Amar'e, Casspi and Acy played alongside Avdija. What kind of competition did Wiseman face at Memphis?

I mean he did play a team ranked 15 at the time, but your point is fair and is in fact the only reason I think most folks are even considering someone else if Wiseman is available. If at 18 he put up 20, 11, and 3 blocks in 23 mpg for a whole season at 76% TS, then he most certainly comes off the board first.

The arc is further than NCAA and he hit 35%, won league MVP and was the focal point of opposing defense. Coming from the forward position, I feel confident he's a threat.

Cool, I think that's defensible but don't agree. Most folks on the draft board seem to think Batum level scoring (pre-cratering) is a realistic best case scenario. Is that the sort of scoring you have in mind?

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Nbadraft.net has his comp as Hedo Turkoglu.

I don't get the FT% vs his other shooting.

Honestly have no idea what to think of Deni as a prospect.

Best quote I've read about him:

It’s good for him to have very fast hands in his neck and to have an advantage in footwork generally and to use his energy consistently and actively on defense.

How can the Hornets not draft someone with very fast hands in his neck?

[Liver_Pooty]

Nbadraft.net has his comp as Hedo Turkoglu.

I don't get the FT% vs his other shooting.

Honestly have no idea what to think of Deni as a prospect.

Best quote I've read about him:

It’s good for him to have very fast hands in his neck and to have an advantage in footwork generally and to use his energy consistently and actively on defense.

How can the Hornets not draft someone with very fast hands in his neck?

This made me laugh way too hard

[UNCNYC]

The warriors appear more interested in Avdija than Ball if he's there. I would rather Avdija than Edwards and even with Wiseman

[DY_nasty]

Israeli Premier league has James Young as the scoring leader. Amar'e, Casspi and Acy played alongside Avdija. What kind of competition did Wiseman face at Memphis?

The Euroleague numbers are still a smaller sample and Avdija still won tourney MVP. The Israel Premier sample is sufficient to give me confidence in his shooting. The arc is further than NCAA and he hit 35%, won league MVP and was the focal point of opposing defense. Coming from the forward position, I feel confident he's a threat.

Wiseman doesn't have tenured NBA vets at every position to lean on.

When scouts are talking about 'elevating teammates' that typically refers to a guy making a bunch of walk-ons or D1A guys achieve a level of success that would not be possible without their personal and direct involvement. There's NBA experience at every position on that team.

Big difference. If you want to make that point, its gotta be done with a lot more than a near 1:1 turnover ratio. I'd love to see how much Deni was assisted on his scores compared to other wings too for that matter.

[luciano-davidwesley]

He's a G/F so we have to pick him apparently. How is Toppin in anyone's top 3?

[MasterIchiro]

Deni shot 59.6% from 2-point range in his EuroLeague games. And he did it from everywhere unlike a mop up big. I'm finished.

Based on his FGA stats, doesn't that mean he essentially made one every other game? Do you really not see why that might not be viewed as particularly compelling?

59.6% inside the arc Euroleague is not compelling? Isn't Euroleague the toughest league outside NBA?

Combined with 35% from the Israel premier league arc in his age 18-19 season vs. grown men?

I'm finished.

[Braggins]

I don't think its a huge red flag that he was a bench warmer in Euroleague. Most 19 year old Euro prospects that get drafted are either bench warmers in Euroleague or don't even make a team (which was one of the main reasons Doncic was so obviously special). Its not irrelevant, but I don't think its a deal breaker.

He has other red flags and I don't know what to make of the league he did play in, though, so I understand and share some of the skepticism. Hes one of the most difficult prospects to evaluate for me.

[Pistol King]

He actually wasn't really a bench warmer in the Euroleague if you consider his trajectory. Take into account this year was his first full season with the senior team (last year he has still practiced both with the youth and the senior team) which means he needed some time to adjust from being a youth player to a full time professional player. Those things takes time and shouldn't surprise it took him time to be a key player in a top 5 Euroleague roster. On his last 7 Euroleague games he already averaged 20mpg (a starter minutes. Let's not forget in Europe they play 40 minutes, not 48), around 8ppg and had the best plus minus on the entire team in a 5-2 winning stretch. Those are being considered rare numbers for a teenager playing in a contender Euroleague team. And considering the another strides he has made during the COVID break (gained around 15lb, and worked more on his athleticism and shooting) he projected to be a key player for Maccabi in the Euroleague playoffs the same way he was in the Israeli league post hiatus.

Moreover, I think his numbers both in the Euroleague and in the Israeli league are actually misleading and he's better than what they are showing. I've seen a lot of his games this season and it was clear to me he's much more talented than what his coach get him credit for. With players this age, if you get the green light and the freedom from your coach to create and make mistakes, that can make a whole difference. In such teams like Maccabi Tel Aviv with winning now aspirations and ton of pressure (one of the most pressured basketball organizations in the world IMO) they don't care how talented you are and they put literally zero effort to let you grow through mistakes and develop your game, and they only use you for their win now purposes. The fact he could become the best player for such team, even if it's in the Israeli league, at such young age, is super impressive to me. Non of the other top prospects in this class have been asked to compete for minutes in such level of roster.

BTW, I don't know if it's been posted here already, regarding Deni on the Hornets:

https://www.si.com/nba/cavaliers/nba-amico/deni-advija-hornets-charlotte

[Braggins]

Some thoughts on the Batum comparison. It seems like a solid comp, but I do think that it seems like Deni will have more scoring potential than Batum if his shot pans out. Even when Batum was at his best, he was physically weak, struggled to finish inside, and had a weak/sloppy handle. Deni seems to be much more physical and has better size/strength. He also seems to have an above average handle and a much more aggressive approach to the game (Batum was always very passive). Obviously, if he completely fails as a shooter, that changes things dramatically, but Batum was honestly very mediocre as a shooter (only one season over 35% from 3pt during his Charlotte tenure and just under 36% for his career), so the bar isn't very high there.

[Pistol King]

But no, defensively he is not reliable. He is not Spanoulis bad (not playing of players's position obviously) but if you get Avdija, you get a point foward with some real clutch skillset. He's not gonna turn into a two way player, no matter how you try.

It was a correct statement maybe 1 year ago, but he really made strides on the defensive end this year. He said on the Mike Shmitz breakdown he started to care about defense just this year. In the Euroleague, especially on his last 10 games or so, he was already one of the 3 best defenders of his team, which was the second best defensive team in the whole Euroleague. Deni is known for his natural offensive skillset (slashing, scoring, passing, playmaking, grab and go etc.) but in the last year he proved me he can be a plus also in the defensive side. Of course NBA and Euroleague is different animal regarding athleticism and he will have to prove he can bring it also to that level. But he's young and he seem to be a very smart defender (knows how to position himself in 1v1 situations and knows how to timing his vertical in weak side help situations), and I think his foot speed is underrated for a player his size. Obviously he's far away from his peak and there is room for improvement, but I think the potential to be a plus defender is there.

[DY_nasty]

I dont think you reach into European league play for defensive players...

[MasterIchiro]

From Pistol King's SI link projecting Avdija to the Hornets #3

NO 1: PLAYMAKING

At 6-9 Avdija has a great ability to see the floor from all angles. Possessing an extremely high basketball IQ and an ability to look for his teammates, he has all of the traits to be a very good passer in the league. He has a very good ability to find teammates for easy baskets.

Because he’s an above average ball handler, it allows him to not only create shots for his teammates but also himself. He moves very well for a player at his size and can cause matchup problems because he is very deceptive with his quickness.

He would be used perfectly as a Point Forward because both his IQ and handling at his size is perfect for this type of skill set. He will remind you of former Orlando Magic swingman Hedo Turkoglu with the way he attacks the defense. How he fits the Hornets is the same way that Nicolas Batum did when he was first acquired with the team. Head coach James Borrego can allow Avdija to handle basketball to create open shots for both Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier III.

NO 2: FINISHING ABILITY

When he does not have the ball in his hands, Avdija is an outstanding cutter. By Synergy Sports, Avdija rated in the 83rd percentile when it came to finishing after making a cut. He possesses very good body control and with his size defenders have a problem blocking shot.

With the ability to finish with both hands, Avdija will find ways to score in traffic on the next level. Even though he will not dunk on you, he is very smooth with his finishing ability. He has a very good pump fake that allows for him to be able to finish at the rim. In an offense that needs players to make moves to the rim, Avdija is very good at the catch and drive. If he’s drafted, he becomes the best at this on the roster. His lower body strength does not allow him to get bumped off the ball easily.

NO 3: PROFESSIONALISM

Known for being a relentless worker, Avdija takes the game seriously. He is known for not only being the first one in the gym, but known for taking hundreds of jumpshots after games. Learning the game from his father who played at a very high level in both Israel and Yugoslavia.

Being only 19 years old, not only playing at the high level in Israel, he played on one of the best teams in the world. HIs Maccabi Tel-Aviv team had 6 players who played in the NBA (including Amare Stoudamire and Omri Casspi) and 4 others who were drafted by NBA teams. On a roster with all of that talent, he became the youngest player in the Isreali Basketball League history to win the MVP award. As his team went to the Euroleague Final Four.

[yosemiteben]

Deni shot 59.6% from 2-point range in his EuroLeague games. And he did it from everywhere unlike a mop up big. I'm finished.

Based on his FGA stats, doesn't that mean he essentially made one every other game? Do you really not see why that might not be viewed as particularly compelling?

59.6% inside the arc Euroleague is not compelling? Isn't Euroleague the toughest league outside NBA

It really feels like you have to try to miss the point like this.

Yes he shot almost 60% inside the arc, but he also made a total of 15 two point field goals in 26 games played. I have a tough time using that data set and concluding that he'll be a valuable NBA scorer.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Small sample size is a problem for evaluating every prospect this year.

[MasterIchiro]

Based on his FGA stats, doesn't that mean he essentially made one every other game? Do you really not see why that might not be viewed as particularly compelling?

59.6% inside the arc Euroleague is not compelling? Isn't Euroleague the toughest league outside NBA

It really feels like you have to try to miss the point like this.

Yes he shot almost 60% inside the arc, but he also made a total of 15 two point field goals in 26 games played. I have a tough time using that data set and concluding that he'll be a valuable NBA scorer.

It feels like you make me repeat points because you nitpick data used to reinforce them. Here's my primary sample set: I've stated clearly Deni shot 66.5% from the floor, including threes, as an 18-19 year old in Israel Premier facing tougher competition Gordon Hayward did in NCAA Horizon Conference. Avdija started playing pro at 16.

We're obviously looking at different data. You're looking at FT% and forgetting everything else. I'm looking at his most recent full season shooting 66.5% from the floor Israel Premier reinforced by a smaller sample of him shooting 59% from inside the arc Euroleague.

We're assigning different meaning to our data. I feel my data points to him translating his floor game in the NBA, especially considering he plays with and against players with NBA experience shooting from an arc that is more representative of NBA range.

Totally done discussing Deni because I'd be repeating myself and I'm sick to death that for some reason I do it most in my responses to you.

[yosemiteben]

59.6% inside the arc Euroleague is not compelling? Isn't Euroleague the toughest league outside NBA

It really feels like you have to try to miss the point like this.

Yes he shot almost 60% inside the arc, but he also made a total of 15 two point field goals in 26 games played. I have a tough time using that data set and concluding that he'll be a valuable NBA scorer.

It feels like you make me repeat points because you nitpick data used to reinforce them.

I mean, yeah - I critique the data you cited to evidence your conclusions and substantiate your opinion. That's pretty much how one analyzes opinions about prospects.

Here's my primary sample set: I've stated clearly Deni shot 66.5% from the floor, including threes, as an 18-19 year old in Israel Premier facing tougher competition Gordon Hayward did in NCAA Horizon Conference. Avdija started playing pro at 16.

I'm not convinced that the competition Deni faced in the Israeli league was better than what Hayward faced in the NCAA, particularly in the NCAA tournament. I actually haven't seen you cite anything to the contrary, other than pointing out that Deni had NBA players on his own team.

Look at the list of MVPs from that league (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_MVP), the only one I've ever heard of is PJ Tucker back in 2007-08.

Look at the list of Finals MVPs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Finals_MVP) - 37 year old washed up Amare Stoudemire who has been out of the NBA for 5 season won it this past season. In the last 10 years the only other guy I recognize is Pat Calathes.

I've never heard of any winner of the DPOY in that league (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Defensive_Player_of_the_Year)

Look at the scoring leaders in the league (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Statistical_Leaders). It's guys that couldn't stay on an NBA roster (Glen Rice Jr., James Young) and a bunch of guys that have never made it to the NBA.

Look at the "Discovery of the Year" award (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Discovery_of_the_Year) - never heard of any of these guys.

Look at the top 5 players each year of the past 10 years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Basketball_Premier_League_Quintet#2019%E2%80%9320). How many of these guys sniffed an NBA rotation?

Obviously we have different degrees to which we attribute value to Deni's performance in this league. That's fine, I have not even attempted to criticize your opinion of Deni or say that it is indefensible to want him. I'm just saying that I'm not as convinced by the data set, particularly since you have to emphasize his performance against what appears to me to be inferior competition.

We're obviously looking at different data. You're looking at FT% and forgetting everything else.

Like the 3PT and FG stats in Euroleague that we've been talking about? Or the Israeli stats that I've acknowledged?

I'm looking at his most recent full season shooting 66.5% from the floor Israel Premier reinforced by a smaller sample of him shooting 59% from inside the arc Euroleague.

Using the Euroleague data seems cherrypicked to the point of absurdity. You choose to look past both his terrible 3PT% and his terrible FT%, but do look at the fact that he shot 60% in the 15 total two point field goals he made over 26 games.

I'm making a big deal out of his Euroleague stats because the fact that he had such a dramatically negative performance in Euroleague vs. his Israeli league performance is what makes me particularly nervous about banking on him with a top lotto pick.

But look, I get that maybe his coach didn't like him for basketball politics reasons, or didn't play him the right away, or hell it's just a tough league and maybe he just was having a hard time in his personal life or something. I get that **** happens, and the fact that he barely contributed in Euroleague doesn't mean he won't be a good NBA player. But it definitely is a red flag for me.