Official MMA discussion thread pt 2: UFC 268 in MSG Usman vs Colby 2, Rose vs Zhang 2

[Cookies4Life]

Woodley has to consider retiring at this point or at least take an extended break and reassess everything. He hasn't looked good at all in his last 3 fights, it just seems as if he's gun shy in there.

For someone with his level of wrestling, he didn't look good on the ground with either Covington or Usman. I think what really hurt him is how he transitioned into a part time fighter after winning the title several years back. I remember his excellent fights with Wonderboy and his terrific KO of Till but he wasn't a very active champion during his reign and that couldn't possibly help someone who was already nearing their mid 30's at the time.

I wonder what Maia is thinking at this point with his fight against Chimaev in November. I fear for his health given his age and the fact he was just stopped in his last fight by Burns. Khamzat looks like the real deal and it'll be interesting to see if he can maintain this level of activity and continue fighting in multiple weight classes or if he decides to zone in on 170 and pursue a title shot. The way he's going I wouldn't be surprised if he's fighting for a title at WW or MW by the spring.

[j4remi]

Card lived up to the lofty expectations the MMA community had. Great finishes all night; some prospects thrived and others struggled. Some quick hot takes from a great night of fights:

- Woodley's lost 15 straight rounds but he did it to arguably the top 3 guys in the division and inarguably 3 of the top 5 guys. What makes the retirement conversation live for him are the combination of age and a lack of any meaningful developments since his style got figured out. I think his legacy is taking a beating when it shouldn't; his prime came at a time when Robbie Lawler, Rory MacDonald and Carlos Condit were the big dogs. He beat two of those guys and his peak outlasted all three. Still...dude's way past prime.

- Cerrone's decline was also pretty much on display. He even admitted that he didn't feel like he earned the draw.

- Chimaev lived up to the hype though. His one punch power had flashed in previous fights, but Meerschaert is the proven talent that shows the power is legit. Just like that; the Maia fight becomes a lot less interesting. The intrigue of that match-up was Chimaev can't just take the guy down; but a bit of that existed with Meerschaert even...doesn't matter how good guys are on the ground though is Khamzat can sleep them on the feet. Big statement win.

- Walker vs Spann was sloppy, athletic greatness. Spann landed first but rushed into a counter and couldn't recover. Neither guy really showed what I'd like to see development wise because it was a messy match-up. But both flashed the tools that make them so interesting at their ages; Walker's also been with some good camps and I hope it means growth.

- Dborak and Jessica Rose-Clark were the stand out performances of the undercard to me. They didn't get the quick finishes but that meant a lot more time to show the dimensions of their craft. There were a ton of beautiful submissions though and that always makes me smile.

- Sidenote: TJ Laramie had the "young nervous fighter" look down to a T. It reminded me of Dawodu's debut or Pico's way back (granted Pico was a first pro fight ever). He got pressed into an early mistake and got caught in a sub. I still want to see him get chances to show why he was pretty hyped heading in and we'll see how he recovers. Some guys bounce back like Dawodu and some guys just can't get out of their own way (that's an "I'm tired of Bektic getting caught" reference tbh).

- My picks for the winner's next match-ups:
- Chimaev vs Brunson if he goes 185; Edwards if he goes 170: he's passed the early tests, let's throw him into the deeper waters

- Covington vs Wonderboy: I've made this no secret, I think Wonderboy matches up better with the top wrestlers than anyone else in the division. Burns may have jumped the line off his performance against Woodley; but at 15 straight lost rounds I don't think a Woodley win gets you the contender spot any more.

- Price vs James Krause: Krause is coming off a controversial split decision on a short notice fight and ran off 6 straight before that. Price is off a draw but brings the higher profile after the Cowboy fights and some highlight KO's. Both guys are game, it'd be a fun watch and I think it's another tough but technical fighter vs the unorthodox power of Price.

[bringbackhoffa]

the problem with feeding Chimaev to the big dogs is that he would likely need a longer training camp, and likely take damage whereby a 2 week turnaround would not be possible. Think they stick with Maia maybe even Neil Magny if they want to feed him another quick win and Wideman or Brunson to build up his name even further at 185, though i would like to see him face Gastelum

[j4remi]

the problem with feeding Chimaev to the big dogs is that he would likely need a longer training camp, and likely take damage whereby a 2 week turnaround would not be possible. Think they stick with Maia maybe even Neil Magny if they want to feed him another quick win and Wideman or Brunson to build up his name even further at 185, though i would like to see him face Gastelum

Yeah, I think this is a potential big challenge of evaluating a guy that's getting double-booked fast track fights. Chimaev is more likely to get friendly style match-ups even on the way up if the UFC wants to paint him as an unstoppable machine. I like the Weidman selection a lot; a Rockhold fight could be cool too since Luke can be finished early but poses a lot of risks at the same time.

[HighRyzer83]

the problem with feeding Chimaev to the big dogs is that he would likely need a longer training camp, and likely take damage whereby a 2 week turnaround would not be possible. Think they stick with Maia maybe even Neil Magny if they want to feed him another quick win and Wideman or Brunson to build up his name even further at 185, though i would like to see him face Gastelum

Yeah, I think this is a potential big challenge of evaluating a guy that's getting double-booked fast track fights. Chimaev is more likely to get friendly style match-ups even on the way up if the UFC wants to paint him as an unstoppable machine. I like the Weidman selection a lot; a Rockhold fight could be cool too since Luke can be finished early but poses a lot of risks at the same time.

There's no way rockhold accepts. He needs a tune-up himself. He would refuse to be fed to an unranked monster when he's trying to bounce back.

[j4remi]

the problem with feeding Chimaev to the big dogs is that he would likely need a longer training camp, and likely take damage whereby a 2 week turnaround would not be possible. Think they stick with Maia maybe even Neil Magny if they want to feed him another quick win and Wideman or Brunson to build up his name even further at 185, though i would like to see him face Gastelum

Yeah, I think this is a potential big challenge of evaluating a guy that's getting double-booked fast track fights. Chimaev is more likely to get friendly style match-ups even on the way up if the UFC wants to paint him as an unstoppable machine. I like the Weidman selection a lot; a Rockhold fight could be cool too since Luke can be finished early but poses a lot of risks at the same time.

There's no way rockhold accepts. He needs a tune-up himself. He would refuse to be fed to an unranked monster when he's trying to bounce back.

When it comes to Luke Rockhold's ego, I leave all cards on the table

He might think it's high risk, he might think it's a flash in the pan he can use for a quick jump back into the conversation.

[HarthorneWingo]

Yeah, I think this is a potential big challenge of evaluating a guy that's getting double-booked fast track fights. Chimaev is more likely to get friendly style match-ups even on the way up if the UFC wants to paint him as an unstoppable machine. I like the Weidman selection a lot; a Rockhold fight could be cool too since Luke can be finished early but poses a lot of risks at the same time.

There's no way rockhold accepts. He needs a tune-up himself. He would refuse to be fed to an unranked monster when he's trying to bounce back.

When it comes to Luke Rockhold's ego, I leave all cards on the table

He might think it's high risk, he might think it's a flash in the pan he can use for a quick jump back into the conversation.

This is just like WWE promotions.

Step 1, have him maul the no-names, and mediocre fighters, in which I include Maerschardt. Check.

Step 2, feed him the over-the-hill (or close to it) name fighters. Weidman and Rockhold would each get rocked by Khamzat ... WHO JUST CALLED OUT WONDERBOEEEEEEEYYYY.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/09/khamzat-chimaev-intercepts-stephen-thompsons-callout-challenges-him-to-fight-instead

[j4remi]

This is just like WWE promotions.

Step 1, have him maul the no-names, and mediocre fighters, in which I include Maerschardt. Check.

Step 2, feed him the over-the-hill (or close to it) name fighters. Weidman and Rockhold would each get rocked by Khamzat ... WHO JUST CALLED OUT WONDERBOEEEEEEEYYYY.

https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020/09/khamzat-chimaev-intercepts-stephen-thompsons-callout-challenges-him-to-fight-instead

It is similar for sure. Jobbers first, then an equivalent prospect, then a fading star to put the guy over, then he gets a big dog, then he gets a title shot. For the guys that Dana really likes, you'll catch them not facing opponents that could exploit a weakness. Conor avoided top tier wrestlers; Khabib post-Tibau really didn't see many guys with true wrestling chops; Izzy didn't fight a wrestler until he had the belt and called one out.

So it's not a path that makes a guy a fake or anything, but it does make certain evaluations more difficult. I really don't know Chimaev's weaknesses until we see him for more than 2 minutes at a time max. I like that Chimaev is doing the call out thing. I need someone to start tracking all his callouts ...I would hate a Wonderboy vs Chimaev fight though because I don't think a win puts him in immediate contention. Any guy that's high ranked and beats Chimaev will suffer the hindsight effect ("that guy never belonged in that fight to begin with" reactions). I don't think anyone in the top 5 should be fighting a guy who hasn't beaten a ranked opponent yet.

Usman vs Burns
Colby vs the winner
Edwards vs Wonderboy for next in line behind Colby or maybe a contender fight with the loser of Burns/Usman depending on how competitive that is.

That's how I think it should play out up top. Chimaev would have two or three fights space to build up his hype train even more. That's room for a top 10; one of these top 5 guys that shakes loose from a loss; and then a real contendership fight...assuming he keeps it up.

[HarthorneWingo]

I love listening to Teddy Atlas. Here's his take on last weekend's fights

Watch on YouTube

[j4remi]

UFC 253 is really, really hype fam...they're using Adesanya's star to draw eyes for some really nice prospects at the bottom of the main card. I like to gamble, but I'm not making confident bets on anybody this weekend. The only thing I'm confident about is that there are gonna be some really good fights from this batch. This card is a match maker's chef's kiss moreso than any supercard could be.

Anyway, I wanna do the two major fights justice; so I'm gonna go in on those two now and then visit the prospect watch later on. I'll just note that Dawodu vs Tukhugov should boost a prospect nicely and that Kai Kara France doesn't have boring fights for now.

Adesanya vs Costa: Israel Adesanya gives me Anderson Silva vibes and I'm not just talking about the counter striking, flashy style. I mean the way he navigates the octagon and makes other fighters look silly fam. Robert Whitaker doesn't get jacked up like that. Yoel Romero doesn't refuse to engage. Marvin Vettori was complaining about eye pokes after eating an elbow . That said, Paulo Costa always gave me a Belfort vibe. His pressure is suffocating, his power is overwhelming and he's more explosive than his size and power should ever allow for. Adesanya is the master of making people pay for chasing; Costa's the master of smothering and trapping guys who back up.

On the technical side what makes this so interesting is that Adesanya is SUPER disciplined about avoiding the cage...to the point of running if he has to. His back rarely hits the cage, instead he pivots out and counters guys that get too aggressive. Costa though has ring cutting and power that had Yoel Romero backing up and desperate. But it also got him countered. Uriah Hall landed some too. Borrachina is hittable fam. That said, Kelvin Gastelum hurt Izzy bad too. This is guaranteed not to be another Adesanya/Romero fight too; both these guys throw a ton of volume. Someone's prolly sleeping Saturday while another dude gets the belt wrapped around his waist.

Reaching back to my legend comparisons, Anderson Silva fought Vitor Belfort once. He baited Vitor into a KO front kick for the ages pretty fast. I don't foresee this match-up ending as quickly but I do edge new age Anderson, Adesanya. Costa slows down and we know that from seeing him fight 3 rounds once. He needs to catch Adesanya and I could see his pressure looking good early, but I think Izzy is too active

Reyes vs Blachowicz: While I'm not in agreement, there are a LOT of MMA fans that believe Dominick Reyes is essentially the unofficial champion already after being robbed of a win against Jon Jones. It was the performance of a lifetime against a GOAT fighter with no true losses on his record. The contrarian in me though, thinks that people were caught sleeping a bit on the kid Reyes and now have gone from underrating him to kinda overrating him. He put on a hell of a show, undeniable...but whether this was him turning the corner to elite level or more a matter of his unique tools is something I'm not certain of (shameless brag, I called his tools being a problem for Jones prefight).

What are the tools? He's big, overpowering and athletic. Reyes doesn't do anything spectacular technically, but his boxing is clean and fast and HEAVY. He also doesn't have any clear technical weaknesses, he's the new age all-around talent with athleticism that most fighters can't keep up with. When he met Volkan Oezdemir who could match his athleticism, plenty of people had him losing the fight and looking vulnerable. Enter Jan Blachowicz...

Blachowicz entered the UFC as this really promising KSW fighter and looked promising but overwhelmed early. That led to a lot of people sleeping on him as he ran off 7-1 run with five finishes and his only loss coming in an absolute war against Thiago Santos (another fighter that gave Jon Jones trouble). Jan isn't quite as big as Reyes, but he has more reach and more than twice the fight experience. Blachowicz has a similar underdog effect going into this as I felt Reyes had going into the Jones fight.

So what will it look like? If Reyes really hit another level; he should take Jan out in convincing fashion. His speed and size ought to help him find openings and Jan can get caught; I'll jump right back to Dom's pull-punching as the best way to land clean. Both guys operate best at boxing range, so exchanges ought to be available. If Reyes is who his career has suggested, I think he still has a good shot to win but it's a MUCH more competitive fight. Blachowicz has power that can press Reyes and force him into less comfortable countering than he had against Jones' volume style.

Grappling and stamina could be the difference in this one. Pocket fights are gonna happen and the KO power that both possess could lead to some level changing and clinch fighting when one or the other is in danger. Both guys are good everywhere, but if one of them has a clear advantage in clinches and wrestling then I'd expect him to press that advantage. If they stalemate moreso than not (my guess); then it can still be valuable to work the clinches and try to wear each other out. I thought Dom slowed down against Volkan pretty heavily; Jan slipped up late against Santos during fatigue time too. Idk who is better equipped to go long in the type of fight I'm expecting.

So after all that, I'm not committing to either guy winning. But I'd say smart money edges Reyes (the oddsmakers screwed this up, he's too big a favorite for it to be worth it imo) while my gut is telling me that Blachowicz has a very good chance to score the upset.

[j4remi]

I love listening to Teddy Atlas. Here's his take on last weekend's fights

Watch on YouTube

Teddy's so fun to listen to; perfect combination of technical knowledge and enthusiasm. I love how he mixes in boxing figures for comparisons to help boxing heads better appreciate MMA striking...I find most striking connoisseurs that I break bread with get frustrated with some of the kinks in MMA striking's armor. Teddy though, he explains Cerrone cutting his jab short in a way that's purely focused on the technical flaws; he makes it teachable.

I also love the nod to MMA matchmaking and how the UFC often match makes for competitive fights instead of the boxing model for stars (though I've mentioned some of the bigger prospects do get the same treatment). Teddy's also dope for bringing in the mental aspects with Niko Price and Woodley. It's really a pleasure seeing someone bring boxing acumen and clout to breaking down MMA; I used to hate when Boxing vs MMA was a thing and I think that's faded a good deal.

[HarthorneWingo]

I love listening to Teddy Atlas. Here's his take on last weekend's fights

Watch on YouTube

Teddy's so fun to listen to; perfect combination of technical knowledge and enthusiasm. I love how he mixes in boxing figures for comparisons to help boxing heads better appreciate MMA striking...I find most striking connoisseurs that I break bread with get frustrated with some of the kinks in MMA striking's armor. Teddy though, he explains Cerrone cutting his jab short in a way that's purely focused on the technical flaws; he makes it teachable.

I also love the nod to MMA matchmaking and how the UFC often match makes for competitive fights instead of the boxing model for stars (though I've mentioned some of the bigger prospects do get the same treatment). Teddy's also dope for bringing in the mental aspects with Niko Price and Woodley. It's really a pleasure seeing someone bring boxing acumen and clout to breaking down MMA; I used to hate when Boxing vs MMA was a thing and I think that's faded a good deal.

Thanks for adding a lotta meat to the bone I put out there on Teddy.

[HarthorneWingo]

Woodley has to consider retiring at this point or at least take an extended break and reassess everything. He hasn't looked good at all in his last 3 fights, it just seems as if he's gun shy in there.

For someone with his level of wrestling, he didn't look good on the ground with either Covington or Usman. I think what really hurt him is how he transitioned into a part time fighter after winning the title several years back. I remember his excellent fights with Wonderboy and his terrific KO of Till but he wasn't a very active champion during his reign and that couldn't possibly help someone who was already nearing their mid 30's at the time.

I wonder what Maia is thinking at this point with his fight against Chimaev in November. I fear for his health given his age and the fact he was just stopped in his last fight by Burns. Khamzat looks like the real deal and it'll be interesting to see if he can maintain this level of activity and continue fighting in multiple weight classes or if he decides to zone in on 170 and pursue a title shot. The way he's going I wouldn't be surprised if he's fighting for a title at WW or MW by the spring.

Maia and Woodley should both retire. You also left out the Burns fight where Woodley also got taken down and outwrestled imo

[HighRyzer83]

Woodley has to consider retiring at this point or at least take an extended break and reassess everything. He hasn't looked good at all in his last 3 fights, it just seems as if he's gun shy in there.

For someone with his level of wrestling, he didn't look good on the ground with either Covington or Usman. I think what really hurt him is how he transitioned into a part time fighter after winning the title several years back. I remember his excellent fights with Wonderboy and his terrific KO of Till but he wasn't a very active champion during his reign and that couldn't possibly help someone who was already nearing their mid 30's at the time.

I wonder what Maia is thinking at this point with his fight against Chimaev in November. I fear for his health given his age and the fact he was just stopped in his last fight by Burns. Khamzat looks like the real deal and it'll be interesting to see if he can maintain this level of activity and continue fighting in multiple weight classes or if he decides to zone in on 170 and pursue a title shot. The way he's going I wouldn't be surprised if he's fighting for a title at WW or MW by the spring.

Maia and Woodley should both retire. You also left out the Burns fight where Woodley also got taken down and outwrestled imo

I don't know if it's time for Woodley to retire. Woodley did not demonstrate any weaknesses he did not already have. He was destroyed by Marquardt and dominated by Rory when he was in his prime. He was never an aggressive fighter. He was a counter fighter. Even when he attacked Lawler, it was because Lawler gave ground. I believe he was never equipped with the skillset nor the mentality to beat Usman, Colby or Burns. Its the styles. If he fought someone like Petis, everybody would be saying the old Woodley is back.

[HarthorneWingo]

Woodley has to consider retiring at this point or at least take an extended break and reassess everything. He hasn't looked good at all in his last 3 fights, it just seems as if he's gun shy in there.

For someone with his level of wrestling, he didn't look good on the ground with either Covington or Usman. I think what really hurt him is how he transitioned into a part time fighter after winning the title several years back. I remember his excellent fights with Wonderboy and his terrific KO of Till but he wasn't a very active champion during his reign and that couldn't possibly help someone who was already nearing their mid 30's at the time.

I wonder what Maia is thinking at this point with his fight against Chimaev in November. I fear for his health given his age and the fact he was just stopped in his last fight by Burns. Khamzat looks like the real deal and it'll be interesting to see if he can maintain this level of activity and continue fighting in multiple weight classes or if he decides to zone in on 170 and pursue a title shot. The way he's going I wouldn't be surprised if he's fighting for a title at WW or MW by the spring.

Maia and Woodley should both retire. You also left out the Burns fight where Woodley also got taken down and outwrestled imo

I don't know if it's time for Woodley to retire. Woodley did not demonstrate any weaknesses he did not already have. He was destroyed by Marquardt and dominated by Rory when he was in his prime. He was never an aggressive fighter. He was a counter fighter. Even when he attacked Lawler, it was because Lawler gave ground. I believe he was never equipped with the skillset nor the mentality to beat Usman, Colby or Burns. Its the styles. If he fought someone like Petis, everybody would be saying the old Woodley is back.

I don’t think Woodley ever lost this many rounds in a row. He’s just unable to find the timing to throw his right and it’s not like Colby didn’t give Tyron his opportunities to do so. Tyron can’t pull the trigger anymore.

Go watch that Teddy Atlas video I posted bc he talks about it and let me know what you think.

[HarthorneWingo]

I'm beginning to enjoy Colby. Colby's got to go with the Ric Flair poofy negligee for his next fight.

Watch on YouTube

[bringbackhoffa]

Can't believe I'm saying this but I think Costa knocks out Izzy

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[bringbackhoffa]

Looks like chimev will face stephan Thompson in a 5 round main even with perry v lawler also on the same card

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[HarthorneWingo]

Looks like chimev will face stephan Thompson in a 5 round main even with perry v lawler also on the same card

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[HarthorneWingo]

Can't believe I'm saying this but I think Costa knocks out Izzy

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Check out The Weasel's preview. Costa is the perfect opponent for Izzy. He's calling for a 2 rd KO.