Offseason Cap situation

[100proof]

As of right now this is the Celtics cap situation for next season. (estimated and subjected to change based on incentives, bonuses, new cap levels, etc)

Kemba Walker $34,379,100
Gordon Hayward $34,187,085
Marcus Smart $13,446,428
Jayson Tatum $9,897,120
Jaylen Brown $23,883,929
Daniel Theis $5,000,000
Enes Kanter $5,005,350
Romeo Langford $3,631,200
Vincent Poirier $2,619,207
Grant Williams $2,498,760
Robert Williams $2,029,920
Semi Ojeleye $1,752,950
Brad Wanamaker $1,820,564
Carsen Edwards $1,517,981
Javonte Green $1,517,981
Demetrius Jackson (W) $92,857
Guerschon Yabusele (W) $1,039,080

144,319,512.00 for 15
This includes the player options for Hayward and Kanter, includes the Team option on Semi, includes the qualifying offer on Brad Wannamaker, and includes the non guaranteed offers on Theis and Green and includes the cap holds of Yabusele and Jackson.
It DOES NOT include picks.

Adding the picks signed at expected amounts will increase team salary by (est):

14: 3,036,700
26: 1,787,600
30: 1,700,400
47: 850,000

This would bring total team payroll to 151,694,212 for 19 players.


Now it is very safe to assume that all of Brad, Semi and Green will be released saving a total of 5,091,495 dropping team payroll to 146,602,717 for 16 players.

Early reports are suggesting that the salary cap will remain at 109 million and luxury tax will remain at about 132 million. So for this exercise we will assume that this holds true.

That would mean that the Celtics are about 12.5 million into the luxury tax.

This really leaves limited options for the team moving forward to address its needs and to address the lux tax implications.


1) trade smaller salaries/pick for less salary to make up the 12.5 million dollars. - con is that it could theoretically leave team with unfilled roster spots and a worse overall product.

2) trade Hayward and pieces for depth that is cheaper overall. Meaning team would downgrade the 3rd/4th option for an upgrade of the 6th, 7th, 8th options at less overall cost.

3) stay put and pay lux tax/repeater tax down the road. Spend, spend, spend. Use the 2nd to drop Poirier somewhere and use the vet min to sign more depth after making all the picks.

4) renegotiate Haywards deal and make some tweaks with depth.
If Hayward were willing to sign a new 3+1 TO deal worth the same exact contract as Jaylen Browns, 3+1 year 107 million**AT MOST (seems like a reasonable ask given they are equally important to the team) that would drop team payroll down all the way to 136,299,561, close but still over tax. The maximum amount we would need to resign Hayward 4 year 85 million (with 8% raises starting at 19 million year one) to not have to make other moves

5) Hayward refuses to renegotiate at all, and we go into the season deep into tax with little way to make improvements outside of little end of bench tweaks and we re-evaluate once Hayward walks away at end of season, or gets traded away from some scrap pieces during the season.

Ideally, Hayward takes a 4 and 85 million dollar pay and team doesn't need to make any other moves to get below tax

the other things that can be good this season are to
a) make a Hayward trade, or
b) Renegotiation on Hayward's deal at Browns price or less. If Hayward accepts the The renegotiation does not get the team all the way below the tax but it is getting them close. A few little accompanying deals would have to be made to get team below the tax line.

For Examples:
Hayward resign at Browns contract would leave team needing to clear about 4.5 million in salary.
That can be accomplished by:
trading Romeo and Poirier for a future pick
trading Kanter for nothing
trading Poirier and a second rounder and draft/stash pick 26 or 30


I think, seeing how this team is competing in the ECFs right now, that nothing drastic is going to happen, but Hayward renegotiation is going to dictate the entire offseason.

If Hayward opts in and does not renegotiate then the team will just replace end of bench players with draft picks and rerun against next season.

If Hayward renegotiates, then all deals will be pointed at not only filling team needs (scorer off the bench, backup PG, better front court fits) but shedding whatever additional salary is needed to get below the tax line.

[Fencer reregistered]

Why would Hayward accept $51 million for a 3-year extension? Guilt over his previous non-performance? Willingness to sacrifice his salary because he's older than the Jays, Kemba just deserves money more than he does, and Wyc's a nice guy?

[100proof]

Why would Hayward accept $51 million for a 3-year extension? Guilt over his previous non-performance? Willingness to sacrifice his salary because he's older than the Jays, Kemba just deserves money more than he does, and Wyc's a nice guy?

I just tried to list all possibilities for team getting under team getting under the lux tax.
And if he would accept that deal of 4-85 then team would be below that level.

I think he would go for something around the Jaylen amount, which would require team dropping about another 5 mill in salary.

[Darth Celtic]

I like wannamkaer. Don't like Semi and green is fun to watch dunk but it's pretty clear, they won't be back. I also expect sexy pants to be gone by the time draft is done. Something like him and the bucks pick for 2 future 2nd rounders.

[TheMartian]

Who thinks Hayward opts out and re-signs a team friendly deal? I do.

[100proof]

Who thinks Hayward opts out and re-signs a team friendly deal? I do.

I hope he does. If he signs for Browns deal then it opens some nice options for us,

Flipping Poirier and bucks pick for 2 future seconds as proposed by Darth Celtic would get the Celtics to just under the lux tax (131.9 mill). a minor deal away from using the vet mle and still be under it (edwards for a second)

Kemba/Smart
Brown/Romeo
Hayward/
Tatum/GrantW
Theis/Kanter/Timelord

Picks 14 and 26 and 47 and vet MLE to use.

[ParticleMan]

i'm expecting kanter opts out. i think he can get more than 5m on the open market. he's just not a great fit for our team defensively, but he is pretty good in another scheme where he doesn't have to switch and show on picks. with timelord emerging he is going to see the writing on the wall.

hayward opting out and signing a jaylen deal would be the best possible realistic outcome. he ain't taking 4/85. i think there is a good chance he opts out and just goes full FA, and we would basically have to let him go if we wanted to get under the tax.

i'd love to keep brad around. the guy is a rotation player, which at that price is tough to find, and is a solid locker room guy. green and semi can go. i'd happily dump a 2nd rounder to unload sexy pants.

what about 2-ways tacko and tremont? do they count towards the cap/tax?

[TheMartian]

Who thinks Hayward opts out and re-signs a team friendly deal? I do.

I hope he does. If he signs for Browns deal then it opens some nice options for us,

Flipping Poirier and bucks pick for 2 future seconds as proposed by Darth Celtic would get the Celtics to just under the lux tax (131.9 mill). a minor deal away from using the vet mle and still be under it (edwards for a second)

Kemba/Smart
Brown/Romeo
Hayward/
Tatum/GrantW
Theis/Kanter/Timelord

Picks 14 and 26 and 47 and vet MLE to use.

I hope he does too, despite how some Celtic fans are treating him - i.e. calling for his head, wanting to trade him, etc. I'm sure it's been tough for him and his family hearing or reading about stuff like that, but I believe he wants to play for Brad and wants to stay in Boston.

[TheMartian]

i'm expecting kanter opts out. i think he can get more than 5m on the open market. he's just not a great fit for our team defensively, but he is pretty good in another scheme where he doesn't have to switch and show on picks. with timelord emerging he is going to see the writing on the wall.

hayward opting out and signing a jaylen deal would be the best possible realistic outcome. he ain't taking 4/85. i think there is a good chance he opts out and just goes full FA, and we would basically have to let him go if we wanted to get under the tax.

i'd love to keep brad around. the guy is a rotation player, which at that price is tough to find, and is a solid locker room guy. green and semi can go. i'd happily dump a 2nd rounder to unload sexy pants.

what about 2-ways tacko and tremont? do they count towards the cap/tax?

I think Kanter opts in, though. I think he loves this team and prioritizes camaraderie over the money. He's been saying nothing but good things about the city and his teammates. It's hard for me to believe he'd want out if he's wanted here.

[100proof]

i'm expecting kanter opts out. i think he can get more than 5m on the open market. he's just not a great fit for our team defensively, but he is pretty good in another scheme where he doesn't have to switch and show on picks. with timelord emerging he is going to see the writing on the wall.

hayward opting out and signing a jaylen deal would be the best possible realistic outcome. he ain't taking 4/85. i think there is a good chance he opts out and just goes full FA, and we would basically have to let him go if we wanted to get under the tax.

i'd love to keep brad around. the guy is a rotation player, which at that price is tough to find, and is a solid locker room guy. green and semi can go. i'd happily dump a 2nd rounder to unload sexy pants.

what about 2-ways tacko and tremont? do they count towards the cap/tax?

Not right now. They would have to be signed as vet min contracts with 1 year experience. So looking at about 1.6 mill each.

[Smitty731]

Highly unlikely either Hayward or Kanter opts out. Hayward will take his $34M for next year and then see what he can get on the open market in a much better environment in 2021, with re-signing in Boston at that point the heavy favorite. By all accounts, the Haywards have no desire to move their young family again. But he's also not passing up $34M, nor should he.

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

Also, the current "favorite" for the cap is that the cap stays at ~$109M, but that the luxury tax line goes up to the projected ~139M. The reason being is that this doesn't unfairly penalize teams tax-wise, but also keeps the cap more in line with the new circumstances.

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

It's not really about money for Boston, but roster spots. During the hiatus, I wrote a long series for CelticsBlog about it if anyone wants to look it up.

[hugepatsfan]

100Proof, looks like you pulled your rookie scale numbers from here:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2021

Rookies always sign for 120% of this value, so a better estimate would be to multiple your numbers by 120%.

Also, I believe this is a scale based on the cap. So this is based off of the old $115M cap projection. If the cap stays flat to 2019-20, I believe the rookie scale would be about he same as this past year.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2020

So using the baseline there and then taking 120%, I have our picks costing the following:

#14 Pick 3,458,400
#26 2,035,800
#30 1,936,440
#47 898,310 (rookie minimum)

Definitely should take 120% of the scale numbers since that's what they all sign for. Not 100% sure on what exact rookie scale baseline would be though.

[TheMartian]

Highly unlikely either Hayward or Kanter opts out. Hayward will take his $34M for next year and then see what he can get on the open market in a much better environment in 2021, with re-signing in Boston at that point the heavy favorite. By all accounts, the Haywards have no desire to move their young family again. But he's also not passing up $34M, nor should he.

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

Also, the current "favorite" for the cap is that the cap stays at ~$109M, but that the luxury tax line goes up to the projected ~139M. The reason being is that this doesn't unfairly penalize teams tax-wise, but also keeps the cap more in line with the new circumstances.

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

It's not really about money for Boston, but roster spots. During the hiatus, I wrote a long series for CelticsBlog about it if anyone wants to look it up.

Yeah, i guess that makes sense for Hayward. I do hope he signs back on a team-friendly deal though. He is our glue guy on offense, and we just realized his value on the team when he got back from injury.

[hugepatsfan]

Highly unlikely either Hayward or Kanter opts out. Hayward will take his $34M for next year and then see what he can get on the open market in a much better environment in 2021, with re-signing in Boston at that point the heavy favorite. By all accounts, the Haywards have no desire to move their young family again. But he's also not passing up $34M, nor should he.

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

Also, the current "favorite" for the cap is that the cap stays at ~$109M, but that the luxury tax line goes up to the projected ~139M. The reason being is that this doesn't unfairly penalize teams tax-wise, but also keeps the cap more in line with the new circumstances.

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

It's not really about money for Boston, but roster spots. During the hiatus, I wrote a long series for CelticsBlog about it if anyone wants to look it up.

I'm sure Hayward would consider opting out of $34.2M just like Horford opted out of $30M to sign for a little less with Philly. If the future years are enough money that he thinks it's worth locking in now.

If we offered Hayward a deal that pays him $30M in '20-21, $32.4M in '21-22 and $34.8M in '22-23, I bet he'd opt out. Sure, he's taking a paycut in '20-21. But I think the future years would be high enough vs what he would expect to sign for that it's worth it. I doubt he's getting offers starting at $32.4M next year.

If the tax line stays at $139M vs flat at $132M, then this type of deal becomes very feasible IMO. The lower the tax line, the more we'd need to slash Hayward's salary to stay under, even with a Kanter/Poirier salary dump deal. Since raises calculate off that first year salary, the lower you make it the tougher it gets to offer enough in the out years to justify it on his end. At a $132M tax line, not sure it will work unless he really loves it here. At $139M, I think it's very, very likely something can be worked out.

[Fencer reregistered]

Why would Hayward accept $51 million for a 3-year extension? Guilt over his previous non-performance? Willingness to sacrifice his salary because he's older than the Jays, Kemba just deserves money more than he does, and Wyc's a nice guy?

I just tried to list all possibilities for team getting under team getting under the lux tax.
And if he would accept that deal of 4-85 then team would be below that level.

I think he would go for something around the Jaylen amount, which would require team dropping about another 5 mill in salary.

Jaylen got a lot more than $51 million for a 3-year extension.

[100proof]

100Proof, looks like you pulled your rookie scale numbers from here:

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2021

Rookies always sign for 120% of this value, so a better estimate would be to multiple your numbers by 120%.

Also, I believe this is a scale based on the cap. So this is based off of the old $115M cap projection. If the cap stays flat to 2019-20, I believe the rookie scale would be about he same as this past year.

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale/2020

So using the baseline there and then taking 120%, I have our picks costing the following:

#14 Pick 3,458,400
#26 2,035,800
#30 1,936,440
#47 898,310 (rookie minimum)

Definitely should take 120% of the scale numbers since that's what they all sign for. Not 100% sure on what exact rookie scale baseline would be though.

I absolutely did get the numbers from there.
It is an estimation of the cap situation and it is still pretty fluid right now.

As Smitty pointed out, I would assume that neither Hayward or Kanter opt out, and the lux tax remaining at around 139 million could be pretty huge for the team.

to add on Hayward though, I would politely tell him that I may have to shop him in the final year of his deal if he does not re-negotiate the contract. I mean, I am confident he does not want to uproot his entire family again and move somewhere else, but team needs something of an asset from him as opposed to either a) being forced to overpay net season, or B) losing him for nothing.

[100proof]

Why would Hayward accept $51 million for a 3-year extension? Guilt over his previous non-performance? Willingness to sacrifice his salary because he's older than the Jays, Kemba just deserves money more than he does, and Wyc's a nice guy?

I just tried to list all possibilities for team getting under team getting under the lux tax.
And if he would accept that deal of 4-85 then team would be below that level.

I think he would go for something around the Jaylen amount, which would require team dropping about another 5 mill in salary.

Jaylen got a lot more than $51 million for a 3-year extension.

Yup. difference is Jaylen is coming off a rookie contract and Hayward made 94 million so far.....with Boston alone.

[Smitty731]

Highly unlikely either Hayward or Kanter opts out. Hayward will take his $34M for next year and then see what he can get on the open market in a much better environment in 2021, with re-signing in Boston at that point the heavy favorite. By all accounts, the Haywards have no desire to move their young family again. But he's also not passing up $34M, nor should he.

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

Also, the current "favorite" for the cap is that the cap stays at ~$109M, but that the luxury tax line goes up to the projected ~139M. The reason being is that this doesn't unfairly penalize teams tax-wise, but also keeps the cap more in line with the new circumstances.

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

It's not really about money for Boston, but roster spots. During the hiatus, I wrote a long series for CelticsBlog about it if anyone wants to look it up.

I'm sure Hayward would consider opting out of $34.2M just like Horford opted out of $30M to sign for a little less with Philly. If the future years are enough money that he thinks it's worth locking in now.

If we offered Hayward a deal that pays him $30M in '20-21, $32.4M in '21-22 and $34.8M in '22-23, I bet he'd opt out. Sure, he's taking a paycut in '20-21. But I think the future years would be high enough vs what he would expect to sign for that it's worth it. I doubt he's getting offers starting at $32.4M next year.

If the tax line stays at $139M vs flat at $132M, then this type of deal becomes very feasible IMO. The lower the tax line, the more we'd need to slash Hayward's salary to stay under, even with a Kanter/Poirier salary dump deal. Since raises calculate off that first year salary, the lower you make it the tougher it gets to offer enough in the out years to justify it on his end. At a $132M tax line, not sure it will work unless he really loves it here. At $139M, I think it's very, very likely something can be worked out.

The big difference is that there isn't a Philly there for Hayward this offseason. Philly was a good team that had cap space. All of the teams with cap space are bad teams.

And guys don't opt out to take so little less in the first year. Also, Boston is probably paying the tax no matter what next season. I think they're more like to offer Hayward a front-loaded contract, where it declines each season, if he was to opt out. Which, I am fairly certain isn't happening.

[100proof]

Highly unlikely either Hayward or Kanter opts out. Hayward will take his $34M for next year and then see what he can get on the open market in a much better environment in 2021, with re-signing in Boston at that point the heavy favorite. By all accounts, the Haywards have no desire to move their young family again. But he's also not passing up $34M, nor should he.

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

Also, the current "favorite" for the cap is that the cap stays at ~$109M, but that the luxury tax line goes up to the projected ~139M. The reason being is that this doesn't unfairly penalize teams tax-wise, but also keeps the cap more in line with the new circumstances.

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

It's not really about money for Boston, but roster spots. During the hiatus, I wrote a long series for CelticsBlog about it if anyone wants to look it up.

I'm sure Hayward would consider opting out of $34.2M just like Horford opted out of $30M to sign for a little less with Philly. If the future years are enough money that he thinks it's worth locking in now.

If we offered Hayward a deal that pays him $30M in '20-21, $32.4M in '21-22 and $34.8M in '22-23, I bet he'd opt out. Sure, he's taking a paycut in '20-21. But I think the future years would be high enough vs what he would expect to sign for that it's worth it. I doubt he's getting offers starting at $32.4M next year.

If the tax line stays at $139M vs flat at $132M, then this type of deal becomes very feasible IMO. The lower the tax line, the more we'd need to slash Hayward's salary to stay under, even with a Kanter/Poirier salary dump deal. Since raises calculate off that first year salary, the lower you make it the tougher it gets to offer enough in the out years to justify it on his end. At a $132M tax line, not sure it will work unless he really loves it here. At $139M, I think it's very, very likely something can be worked out.

Based on his Tenure in Boston, is he worth more than Jaylen? How would some players feel if on multiple occasions they got to the ECFs without Gordo only to have him get a new contract worth MORE than what you are being paid....AGAIN.

[100proof]

Highly unlikely either Hayward or Kanter opts out. Hayward will take his $34M for next year and then see what he can get on the open market in a much better environment in 2021, with re-signing in Boston at that point the heavy favorite. By all accounts, the Haywards have no desire to move their young family again. But he's also not passing up $34M, nor should he.

Kanter won't touch $5M this offseason. None of the cap space teams would sign him and no one else is giving him more than half of their MLE. Plus, he LOVES Boston and has wanted to be there for a while now. He's not going anywhere.

Also, the current "favorite" for the cap is that the cap stays at ~$109M, but that the luxury tax line goes up to the projected ~139M. The reason being is that this doesn't unfairly penalize teams tax-wise, but also keeps the cap more in line with the new circumstances.

FWIW, I expect the Celtics to consolidate some of the draft picks, possibly lose Wanamaker, elevate Waters to a standard deal, bring back Tacko on a Two-Way and then rookie or two come in at the very end of the roster.

It's not really about money for Boston, but roster spots. During the hiatus, I wrote a long series for CelticsBlog about it if anyone wants to look it up.

I'm sure Hayward would consider opting out of $34.2M just like Horford opted out of $30M to sign for a little less with Philly. If the future years are enough money that he thinks it's worth locking in now.

If we offered Hayward a deal that pays him $30M in '20-21, $32.4M in '21-22 and $34.8M in '22-23, I bet he'd opt out. Sure, he's taking a paycut in '20-21. But I think the future years would be high enough vs what he would expect to sign for that it's worth it. I doubt he's getting offers starting at $32.4M next year.

If the tax line stays at $139M vs flat at $132M, then this type of deal becomes very feasible IMO. The lower the tax line, the more we'd need to slash Hayward's salary to stay under, even with a Kanter/Poirier salary dump deal. Since raises calculate off that first year salary, the lower you make it the tougher it gets to offer enough in the out years to justify it on his end. At a $132M tax line, not sure it will work unless he really loves it here. At $139M, I think it's very, very likely something can be worked out.

I cannot see him opting out and resigning here for anything less than MAYBE a million or 2 in the first season. But it is by far the best scenario for the Celtics.