2020 NBA Draft II

[Stillwater]

maybe but I am not expecting anyone is actually anticipating it despite having confidence he will try to improve it. I dont see him as a "shooter" at all. he will get his in different ways outsmarting the defense creating plays for others and get rewarded for running the floor etc but overall there is a pretty good chance when scouts look at him shooting is just another thing in the con column

I get that, but 33% is like straight up terrible for a forward in todays game. For a SF thats in Wiggings / Gay territory. IDK if you can draft a foward top 5 that projects as a 33% 3PT guy unless he is an absolute monster athlete.

and just another reason why I dont think despite his creativity for a forward does he go in the top 5 or even the top 8 necessarily unless somebody gambles on his upside as a defender which seems unlikely

[PerkinsFor3]

Curious to see your opinions here. Where would, knowing what we've seen up until this point, which makes it an unfair game, these players get drafted in the 2020 draft:

RJ Barrett
Troy Brown jr
Robert Williams
Jarrett Culver
Chuma Okeke (in current state)
Darius Bazley
Mohamed Bamba
Donte Divincenzo

[Nate the Great]

^ nobody is targeting Avdija for his shooter skills or upside they are targeting him for his playmaking and versatility in transition scoring. He really is by all definitions overrated as a shooter if people are expecting better than a 33% shooter from 3

I really dont think he is going to be that poor a 3PT guy. His shot is very workable. May take a few years, but I suspect he can top out at like 38%.

His FT% last year was .556. That’s how well he can shoot from the free throw line when nobody is guarding him. He’ll be lucky to shoot 33% from 3. His form doesn’t look too bad, so hopefully he can eventually improve.

[thinktank]

Folks forget Luka’s 3pt %

Avdija isn’t Luka tho.

[Chi town]

Folks forget Luka’s 3pt %

Avdija isn’t Luka tho.

Of course. Missed the point.

[thinktank]

Folks forget Luka’s 3pt %

Avdija isn’t Luka tho.

Of course. Missed the point.

You missed mine. Luka is not a good three point shooter but he brings so much facilitating to the table. Avdija lacks both three point shooting AND facilitation.

I like Avdija but I don’t think he has many similarities to Luka, therefore there’s little use in comparing the two. It will lead to disappointment.

[Chi town]

Avdija isn’t Luka tho.

Of course. Missed the point.

You missed mine. Luka is not a good three point shooter but he brings so much facilitating to the table. Avdija lacks both three point shooting AND facilitation.

I like Avdija but I don’t think he has many similarities to Luka, therefore there’s little use in comparing the two. It will lead to disappointment.

Of course Deni is no Luka. Luka is a good shooter but his percentage is low due to the difficulty in the 3s he creates. Deni will be able to create 3s similar to Tatum with side steps and step backs. Deni looks good in the PnR and I do believe he will be able to create 3s but nowhere near Luka or Trae levels.

Deni as a secondary creator is really good. Super high IQ always makes the right read and pass. He has a really good skill package that needs development. Left hand, shooting off the dribble, shooting over the defense etc.

Watch Herro and you’ll see his IQ is off the charts but he also has a ridiculous skill package. I see Deni similar to him without his skill yet. Of course Herro’s shot is way ahead.

[BlazersBroncos]

You missed mine. Luka is not a good three point shooter but he brings so much facilitating to the table. Avdija lacks both three point shooting AND facilitation.

I like Avdija but I don’t think he has many similarities to Luka, therefore there’s little use in comparing the two. It will lead to disappointment.

Luka shoots insane volume from 3 and many are very difficult shots. His form is there, he just needs to keep practicing. I would be floored if he didnt develop into at least a 38% 3PT guy by age 24-25. He has TONS of time to work on that shot. And once Dallas adds another high tier talent in 2021 FA, ideally someone who can create a bit to take usage off Luka, his %'s should go up.

Deni will get to that range as well. He has the form, and like the above once he isnt asked to facilitate as much and can get open kickouts I suspect he will settle in as a 38% type guy.

[Chi town]

You missed mine. Luka is not a good three point shooter but he brings so much facilitating to the table. Avdija lacks both three point shooting AND facilitation.

I like Avdija but I don’t think he has many similarities to Luka, therefore there’s little use in comparing the two. It will lead to disappointment.

Luka shoots insane volume from 3 and many are very difficult shots. His form is there, he just needs to keep practicing. I would be floored if he didnt develop into at least a 38% 3PT guy by age 24-25. He has TONS of time to work on that shot. And once Dallas adds another high tier talent in 2021 FA, ideally someone who can create a bit to take usage off Luka, his %'s should go up.

Deni will get to that range as well. He has the form, and like the above once he isnt asked to facilitate as much and can get open kickouts I suspect he will settle in as a 38% type guy.

Agreed.

[thinktank]

You missed mine. Luka is not a good three point shooter but he brings so much facilitating to the table. Avdija lacks both three point shooting AND facilitation.

I like Avdija but I don’t think he has many similarities to Luka, therefore there’s little use in comparing the two. It will lead to disappointment.

Luka shoots insane volume from 3 and many are very difficult shots. His form is there, he just needs to keep practicing. I would be floored if he didnt develop into at least a 38% 3PT guy by age 24-25. He has TONS of time to work on that shot. And once Dallas adds another high tier talent in 2021 FA, ideally someone who can create a bit to take usage off Luka, his %'s should go up.

Deni will get to that range as well. He has the form, and like the above once he isnt asked to facilitate as much and can get open kickouts I suspect he will settle in as a 38% type guy.

Agreed.

I agree too.

I just don’t understand the reason for the Luka comparison. They’re very different players.

If the idea is to illustrate that Avdija will improve as a three point shooter, then for a player comparison, choose one that has a similar role to Avdija and who has already improved his shot.

Don’t compare him to a high volume-shooting point guard who shoots difficult threes at a low percentage.

See what I mean?

You’re just projecting about Luka and then projecting that projection onto Avdija, who’s only similarity to Luka is a low three point field goal percentage.

So you’re two projections away from a good comparison for Avdija (your Luka protection, then projecting that onto Avdija).

Furkan Korkmaz is a shooting guard but he’s a guy who’s pretty nifty with the handles, plays a supporting role, is from Turkey (not far from Israel), shot 33% from deep for two years, then really turned it on.

He’s done it and would be a much better comparison than Luka, with a lot less projection needed.

[Chi town]

Luka shoots insane volume from 3 and many are very difficult shots. His form is there, he just needs to keep practicing. I would be floored if he didnt develop into at least a 38% 3PT guy by age 24-25. He has TONS of time to work on that shot. And once Dallas adds another high tier talent in 2021 FA, ideally someone who can create a bit to take usage off Luka, his %'s should go up.

Deni will get to that range as well. He has the form, and like the above once he isnt asked to facilitate as much and can get open kickouts I suspect he will settle in as a 38% type guy.

Agreed.

I agree too.

I just don’t understand the reason for the Luka comparison. They’re very different players.

If the idea is to illustrate that Avdija will improve as a three point shooter, then for a player comparison, choose one that has a similar role to Avdija and who has already improved his shot.

Don’t compare him to a high volume-shooting point guard who shoots difficult threes at a low percentage.

See what I mean?

You’re just projecting about Luka and then projecting that projection onto Avdija, who’s only similarity to Luka is a low three point field goal percentage.

So you’re two projections away from a good comparison for Avdija (your Luka protection, then projecting that onto Avdija).

Furkan Korkmaz is a shooting guard but he’s a guy who’s pretty nifty with the handles, plays a supporting role, is from Turkey (not far from Israel), shot 33% from deep for two years, then really turned it on.

He’s done it and would be a much better comparison than Luka, with a lot less projection needed.

Actually I think Korkmaz is a horrible comparison. He is mostly catch and shoot and he’s not a point forward at all. Doesn’t create for others or playmaker.

[Chi town]

BTW Luka shot 28% on catch and shoot 3s last season.

My projection is based on both being point forwards. Luka lead handler and Deni secondary playmaker.

Luka does take tough shots but he’s not a good or even average shooter otherwise. He’s great due to the way he distributed, creates for others, and manipulated the D to open the court for other to get them easy shots.

https://stats.nba.com/player/1629029/shots-dash/

[thinktank]

BTW Luka shot 28% on catch and shoot 3s last season.

My projection is based on both being point forwards. Luka lead handler and Deni secondary playmaker.

Luka does take tough shots but he’s not a good or even average shooter otherwise. He’s great due to the way he distributed, creates for others, and manipulated the D to open the court for other to get them easy shots.

https://stats.nba.com/player/1629029/shots-dash/

Exactly.

Set your sights higher than Luka if you want Avdija to improve his shooting.

It’s so obvious that there’s no use in talking about it further.

[getrichordie]

Dario Saric 2.0

[CoreyVillains]

Just uploaded my newest breakdown on one of my favorite second round sleepers, Utah State's Sam Merrill. Now I'm not saying by any means that Merrill is going to be anywhere near Luka, but stylistically watching Merrill play in college was like watching Luka.

Watch on YouTube

[BlazersBroncos]

Just uploaded my newest breakdown on one of my favorite second round sleepers, Utah State's Sam Merrill. Now I'm not saying by any means that Merrill is going to be anywhere near Luka, but stylistically watching Merrill play in college was like watching Luka.

Its pretty uncanny how similar they look stylistically. Albeit Merrill is a poor mans at everything Luka does well, outside shooting the 3. I think he goes higher than expected, and if the stars align he can be a nice bench shooter who surprises with his handle and vision from time to time.

[jezzerinho]

I thought the same thing the first time I saw him. All those idiosyncratic body movements to make space and the laser passing vision. Poor man's version obvs, but still similar style wise.

[DevinVassell]

Backup pg behind Luka would be awesome.

[Dundalis]

BTW Luka shot 28% on catch and shoot 3s last season.

My projection is based on both being point forwards. Luka lead handler and Deni secondary playmaker.

Luka does take tough shots but he’s not a good or even average shooter otherwise. He’s great due to the way he distributed, creates for others, and manipulated the D to open the court for other to get them easy shots.

https://stats.nba.com/player/1629029/shots-dash/

He's actually great because he might be one of the best below the basket, non big rim finishers we've seen. Guys with the size and athletic profile of Luka don't finish at a 75% clip on high volume at the rim. You're either a true big or an above the rim athletic freak like Lebron to be that efficient. He shot very poorly from 3 (and everywhere else outside the paint), and average from the FT line and still had an above average 58% TS (was sitting at 60% TS the majority of the season before hitting a bit of a wall just before lockdown) because of that rim finishing. His passing was always his greatest strength, but his finishing ability this past season is what took him to another level.

The catch and shoot is more of an anomoly IMO. He shot 37.4% on them his rookie season. You aren't talking a large sample size due to how little C&S opportunities he gets.

[Dundalis]

Just uploaded my newest breakdown on one of my favorite second round sleepers, Utah State's Sam Merrill. Now I'm not saying by any means that Merrill is going to be anywhere near Luka, but stylistically watching Merrill play in college was like watching Luka.

Watch on YouTube

See a little bit of Devin Booker there, rather than Luka.