Prospect Thread: James Wiseman

[316Hornets]

@Rich I'd argue Ball's skill set combined with physical tools is more of a rarity than a big like Wiseman.

Over the last few years we've had a number of coordinated bigs with large wingspans: Jaxson Hayes, Ayton, Bamba

Wiseman isn't the same as any of these players but they all fall into a similar type of rim running bigs, with 7'4+ wingspans, with projected upside to be able to hit outside shots.

Fair point, I guess if I knew Ball could be a better shooter my perspective/excitement around him would be much greater. I guess if that were the case, he'd be the consensus number 1 though.

For Wiseman, what do we think his low-end projection comparison is vs the high end? Low-end to me seems like a Tyson Chandler. He seems to have coordination, work ethic and a personality vs others who have had physical stats but not coordination, work ethic, personality.

Low-end for Wiseman = Christian Wood

[Rays Pompadour]

In another thread, someone mentioned Mitch's bias toward players that pass, thus Ball and Avdija. This aspect fits Borego's motion offense as well. Shooting ability is a secondary, but high-value skill in the system.

My problem with these biases is the general movement toward isolation offense and the terror of pick and roll with stars such as Harden and James. The game has moved to the wings. Passing is less of a factor with the advent of players who can get their shot whenever they want. Every team needs such a player. Passing equals efficiency, toward the idea of creating the ideal scoring opportunity. But it's a star's league. Finding players who can pass with vision, shoot with a high rate of accuracy and defend multiple positions is very rare in today's game.

The Hornets lack a superstar. Trading for one isn't going to happen. Signing one even less so. So, they're left with two options: create a team of like-talent, multi-skill players that embody the system, or hope for lightning in a bottle that a drafted talent develops into a star.

Out of the top players in the draft, Wiseman most closely fits both draft profiles. And, yeah, Charlotte is seriously lacking in rim protection, so there's that, too.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Out of the top players in the draft, Wiseman most closely fits both draft profiles. And, yeah, Charlotte is seriously lacking in rim protection, so there's that, too.

I'll give you the rim protector.

One of the reasons I'm so anti-Wiseman is that I think that he's spectacularly unlikely to reach his potential let alone superstar status. The odds are super stacked against big men in the modern NBA.

[Rays Pompadour]

Out of the top players in the draft, Wiseman most closely fits both draft profiles. And, yeah, Charlotte is seriously lacking in rim protection, so there's that, too.

I'll give you the rim protector.

One of the reasons I'm so anti-Wiseman is that I think that he's spectacularly unlikely to reach his potential let alone superstar status. The odds are super stacked against big men in the modern NBA.

Yeah, it's weird that the modern NBA wants all their big men to play smaller, compared to earlier years where the league wanted their guards to play bigger.

I hear you that Wiseman is limited by his bigness. I look at his footwork (very good), body control (also very good) and spatial awareness (decent) as predictors of production, whether it be offense or defense. I also look at shot selection, movement off the ball, shooting form (foundational), dribbling skill and passing ability. I watch the eyes to see if the player looks at the floor or always head's up. Of those factors, I believe Wiseman has a greater chance of playing small (dribbling, passing, defending multiple positions) than Ball does playing big - Ball's shot is that bad. And I think Edwards is Jason Richardson, so the Hornets can do better.

And I agree that Wiseman won't be a superstar. His usefulness is a 2-point value, not three. The league is a small-ball three-point league. But somewhere, somehow, the Hornets have to defend the paint or they'll be an outside-in franchise forever trying to find that guy who can score whenever he wants.

[amcoolio]

I just think Wiseman's best case scenario is higher IQ Andre Drummond, which is not what I want out of the 3rd pick in the draft. He just moves so slow and lumbering from side to side, I don't think he'll ever be able to guard out on the perimeter.

[SWedd523]

A higher IQ Andre Drummond is a consistent All-Star/All-NBA player

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm certainly fine with that.

Drummond is statistically the best rebounder in league history for God's sake.

Higher career WS/48 than guys like Marc Gasol, Draymond Green, Gordon Hayward, and Kemba Walker.

Higher career PER than guys like Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dwight Howard, and Al Horford.

The dude is generally good for 17/15/2/2 and has proven to be capable of maintaining offensive flow despite not having much of a jumper.

Make him smarter and you have a dominant big. That's easily worth a top 3 pick in this kind of draft.

[HornetJail]

A higher IQ Andre Drummond is a consistent All-Star/All-NBA player

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm certainly fine with that.

Drummond is statistically the best rebounder in league history for God's sake.

Higher career WS/48 than guys like Marc Gasol, Draymond Green, Gordon Hayward, and Kemba Walker.

Higher career PER than guys like Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dwight Howard, and Al Horford.

The dude is generally good for 17/15/2/2 and has proven to be capable of maintaining offensive flow despite not having much of a jumper.

Make him smarter and you have a dominant big. That's easily worth a top 3 pick in this kind of draft.

Exactly- even with his current terrible basketball IQ, Drummond would probably be a top 30 player in the league if he tried harder. He's a liability on the court because he plays so damn lazy. If Drummond had a work ethic and better than rock bottom basketball IQ, he would easily go #1 in this draft.

[James Gatz]

I agree that 10 years ago, higher IQ Drummond would be worth a top 3 pick. I just don't see Drummond's place in the current NBA. Dude is in his prime and nobody really wants him. When he is a free agent next offseason at 28 how much will he be getting?

I've said this before but I just don't think Wiseman will ever be nearly the rebounder that Drummond has been. Similar to my question about Ball. If you guarantee that Wiseman will get 12 boards a game and shot 34-35% from 3 at a decent clip then I'd be happy with him as the pick.

Also is everyone on this board just "meh" on Edwards? I feel like he's the least discussed but likely prospect for us. To the point it feels like we'll end up drafting him just because of it.

[Rays Pompadour]

I agree that 10 years ago, higher IQ Drummond would be worth a top 3 pick. I just don't see Drummond's place in the current NBA. Dude is in his prime and nobody really wants him. When he is a free agent next offseason at 28 how much will he be getting?

I've said this before but I just don't think Wiseman will ever be nearly the rebounder that Drummond has been. Similar to my question about Ball. If you guarantee that Wiseman will get 12 boards a game and shot 34-35% from 3 at a decent clip then I'd be happy with him as the pick.

Also is everyone on this board just "meh" on Edwards? I feel like he's the least discussed but likely prospect for us. To the point it feels like we'll end up drafting him just because of it.

The problem with any of the top three we're discussing is that none of them have guarantee written all over them. I wish at least one of them did. So...we take our best guess.

I like Edwards and think he will be dynamic but undisciplined and lacking in a definable skill. If, for instance, he has an injury that affects his athleticism how will his other mediocre attributes translate? Ball's shot is just bad, as I've said. It's a shot-put and his legs flail. That negates his passing angles and floor spacing if he can't shoot or at least manage a mid-range game. Maybe it's fixable, but there's no guarantee of that.

Size - that's guaranteed. Upside - guaranteed. And I'm of the opinion that players define the league, not the other way around. If Wiseman were to develop a total game with an Alpha mentality, the rest of the league would be clamoring for 7'1" bigs who can operate in the 5 phases.

[BigSlam]

TBH I don’t see the Wiseman to Drummond comparison.

Drummond is a lumbering, heavy footed dude who lives in the paint in both ends.

Wiseman appears to be a really mobile, agile fleet footed dude - who might also have some range on his J.

I’m confused at why Drummond gets brought up when discussing Wiseman?

Same with guys like Whiteside - another toally different player to Wiseman who is often floated around when discussing Wiseman.


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[BigSlam]

And I'm of the opinion that players define the league, not the other way around. If Wiseman were to develop a total game with an Alpha mentality, the rest of the league would be clamoring for 7'1" bigs who can operate in the 5 phases.

Could. Not. Agree. With. This. More. If. I. Tried.

The league exists through trends, and players determine the trends (and sometimes coaches).

SSOL.
Bombing 3’s.
Mega bigs.
Point forwards.
Point bigs.
Wings guarding bigs.
Bigs shooting 3’s.
Under sized tool bag 5’s (Dray Green).
They were all the rage once and at different times.


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[James Gatz]

Wiseman is pretty heavy footed in my opinion. He's got good/great pop vertically, but he hasn't shown the ability to slide his feet laterally.

[SWedd523]

And I'm of the opinion that players define the league, not the other way around. If Wiseman were to develop a total game with an Alpha mentality, the rest of the league would be clamoring for 7'1" bigs who can operate in the 5 phases.

1 million percent this.

The overly reductive argument of bigs being useless is so tiring

[SWedd523]

TBH I don’t see the Wiseman to Drummond comparison.

Drummond is a lumbering, heavy footed dude who lives in the paint in both ends.

Wiseman appears to be a really mobile, agile fleet footed dude - who might also have some range on his J.

I’m confused at why Drummond gets brought up when discussing Wiseman?

Same with guys like Whiteside - another toally different player to Wiseman who is often floated around when discussing Wiseman.


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Laziness.

"I don't like this player so I'll compare him to other players I don't like"

[SWedd523]

If you guarantee that Wiseman will get 12 boards a game and shot 34-35% from 3 at a decent clip then I'd be happy with him as the pick.

If you can guarantee that Ball stops taking 15 stupid shots a night, generally overhauled his shooting mechanics, and cared about the defensive side of the floor then I'd be happy with him as the pick.

If you can guarantee that Edwards grows a brain, then I'll be happy with that pick.

If you can guarantee that Advija could learn to shoot with consistency and play like an Alpha then I'd be happy with that pick.


It's not that easy

[amcoolio]

TBH I don’t see the Wiseman to Drummond comparison.

Drummond is a lumbering, heavy footed dude who lives in the paint in both ends.

Wiseman appears to be a really mobile, agile fleet footed dude - who might also have some range on his J.

I’m confused at why Drummond gets brought up when discussing Wiseman?

Same with guys like Whiteside - another toally different player to Wiseman who is often floated around when discussing Wiseman.


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Laziness.

"I don't like this player so I'll compare him to other players I don't like"

Watch is college tape, he moves very similar to Drummond

Not laziness

[Liver_Pooty]

Wiseman is better athletically, better touch, more skilled, better handle than Drummond.

[KGdaBom]

Wiseman is a lot like a not fully developed Chris Bosh only bigger. He's the best talent in the draft.
Give him a couple years and he could be a superstar.

[luciano-davidwesley]

I think Wiseman is clearly the highest upside player in the draft. It's a no brainer in my eye we pick him over anyone if he's available.

The arguement we don't pick him because Steph Curry/centers are dead is just stupid to me. Give it 1-10 years and I'm sure some big will come along (possibly even Wiseman) who changes the game and everyone will be creaming over centers again and saying wings are a dime a dozen like has normally been the case.

Pick the player with the most potential to be special to me that's Wiseman.

[James Gatz]

If you guarantee that Wiseman will get 12 boards a game and shot 34-35% from 3 at a decent clip then I'd be happy with him as the pick.

If you can guarantee that Ball stops taking 15 stupid shots a night, generally overhauled his shooting mechanics, and cared about the defensive side of the floor then I'd be happy with him as the pick.

If you can guarantee that Edwards grows a brain, then I'll be happy with that pick.

If you can guarantee that Advija could learn to shoot with consistency and play like an Alpha then I'd be happy with that pick.


It's not that easy

That's my whole point man!

What we're trying to determine with upside is if those areas go right then we're in store for a good pick. The reason I'm lower on Wiseman is that I think his base skills are lower than someone like Okongwu and even if Wiseman's upside is higher I don't think he'll ever be able to reach it.

For me I think it's more likely Ball improves shot selection and mechanics than Wiseman develops a jump shot and becomes a significantly better rebounder than what he showed in the majority of his games.