2020 Draft

[Dat2U]

Toppin is a weird one. Everything seems magnified with him. Vertical is insane. Free throw line to free throw line quickness is insane. He has incredibly stiff hips tho. Lateral quickness is dreadful. Just shockingly bad. I dunno what to make of it. He's definitely high IQ player tho so I think he'll carve out a niche. He reminds me a little of Antwan Jamison in that Jamison was a very quick of his feet but mediocre laterally. Jamison was always a terrible defender tho and Obi doesn't have the offensive toolkit Antwan had.

[payitforward]

I'm high on Okongwu. We actually are very similar. In numerology we share the same life path & energy (7/11). So he's very smart, very self aware (the 7) and athletic (11). He's a high character guy and a leader (11). I see little chance that he doesnt have at leasf a solid NBA career although there's a decent risk of injury at some point (7).

I absolutely love LaMelo Ball though and think he is clearly the best player in the draft by a decent margin. The combo of length, athleticism and skill is unique. He's the only guy I see capable of breaking down defenses at will and creating for himself and others at high-level. He rebounds really well. I think he'll be the closest thing to Westbrook in terms of amassing triple doubles. What confirms it for me is the numerology aspect as he's 33 LP which considered a master number plus 22 energy (born a 22 day) which indicates builder qualities (also a master number). Basically he's uber smart, a trailblazer and a can be someone the franchise builds around. The shot needs work but thats the only issue I have with him.

I'm with you on Wiseman. The talent is so tempting but the numerology aspect on him I don't love. He's very much along the lines of Mitchell Robinson & Andre Drummond. I'm sure he'll be productive just like they are but I question what his real impact willbe if he's not a great defender.

Vassell as I mentioned previously, just screams role playing wing off the bench. Maybe Josh Childress is the upside? Meh.

Anthony Edwards may be the most athletic 2-guard I've seen in years and a great frame to go with it. But the decision making/IQ are very much like Dion Waiters and Nick Young. So where he goes will be of the highest importance. With SA, Bos or Mia - Edwards could be special with right coaching. If not, he'll have some moments but I would expect coaches/teammates to be frustrated with his on-court decisions.

Now, Dat... we'd better get some info on this numerology stuff -- how do you calculate? Is this a form of gematria?

[payitforward]

I kinda like the guys we're looking at: Okongwu, Halliburton and Vassell, better than the guys at the top of the draft: Ball, Edwards, Wiseman.

It's an interesting draft that way, isn't it? Theoretically, value for pick position should remain constant. Personally, I don't think that's true very often, but this year it really seems radical; value for pick position seems to get better & better as you head down the pick positions (up to a point, obviously).

Agreed... there are plenty of reasons for this, but I think the most obvious one is archetype. I was talking to a friend of mine about a year ago who did some scouting and he said, "Unless the player is a generational talent that changes the way the game is played, prospects are bucketed into archetypes. And if that archetype doesnt exist or has shown high failure rates... warning signs are noted."

The easiest archetype is starts with with defense. Can you defend multiple positions well, or one position at an elite level?
The 2nd is off-ball. Can you score points without having plays drawn up/ball pounding? Do you garner ORBs and easy buckets?
Its clear the the players in the 8-15 range settle perfectly into this. Okongwu, Vassell, Haliburton, Okoro, Achuiwa, Nesmith

OTOH, the hardest archetype is the ball centric guard with poor/questionable defense. Because unless you are Harden, Curry, Kyrie, Gil, etc. you become stuck in no mans land of not good enough to lead a team, but unable to fill any other role....

But, as I always say (over & over -- sorry!), when they are done with all this, they still do NOT get the draft picks in the right order after #s 1-3. There are a ton of failures in the top dozen, & there are a ton of successes in the next couple of dozen. Right or wrong, I think the fat part of the talent curve in this draft is going to be from 20-40.

...My question in the draft is, what Jr/Sr. PG ends up the Brunson, Milton, Graham, Brogdan 2nd round pick?
Winston, Flynn, Riller, and Pritchard look to be the guys to keep an eye on.

Why PG in particular? I definitely see a lot of potential NBA 2-guards mocked in R2 -- or even out of the draft altogether! We've already gone through most of them...

Ooops -- dinner guests arriving. That's it for now. Only... 2 months until the draft! (well... not quite!).

[Shoe]

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I can't see us taking Terry. I do think Wiz and Spurs and Celtics are the earliest teams that would consider Poku.

[doclinkin]

I'm high on Okongwu. We actually are very similar. In numerology we share the same life path & energy (7/11). So he's very smart, very self aware (the 7) and athletic (11). He's a high character guy and a leader (11). I see little chance that he doesnt have at leasf a solid NBA career although there's a decent risk of injury at some point (7).

I absolutely love LaMelo Ball though and think he is clearly the best player in the draft by a decent margin. The combo of length, athleticism and skill is unique. He's the only guy I see capable of breaking down defenses at will and creating for himself and others at high-level. He rebounds really well. I think he'll be the closest thing to Westbrook in terms of amassing triple doubles. What confirms it for me is the numerology aspect as he's 33 LP which considered a master number plus 22 energy (born a 22 day) which indicates builder qualities (also a master number). Basically he's uber smart, a trailblazer and a can be someone the franchise builds around. The shot needs work but thats the only issue I have with him.

I'm with you on Wiseman. The talent is so tempting but the numerology aspect on him I don't love. He's very much along the lines of Mitchell Robinson & Andre Drummond. I'm sure he'll be productive just like they are but I question what his real impact willbe if he's not a great defender.

Vassell as I mentioned previously, just screams role playing wing off the bench. Maybe Josh Childress is the upside? Meh.

Anthony Edwards may be the most athletic 2-guard I've seen in years and a great frame to go with it. But the decision making/IQ are very much like Dion Waiters and Nick Young. So where he goes will be of the highest importance. With SA, Bos or Mia - Edwards could be special with right coaching. If not, he'll have some moments but I would expect coaches/teammates to be frustrated with his on-court decisions.

Now, Dat... we'd better get some info on this numerology stuff -- how do you calculate? Is this a form of gematria?

Bumped the last version of the Metaphysical Analysis thread. Dropped the DatN2Uology in there.

[Dark Faze]

I'm kind of surprised there's not much talk about Precious Achiuwa here. I think he might be my clear pick given what I imagine might happen draft wise. I've got a feeling Obi Toppin will fall to us, but we might pass. I just don't see how anyone in the top 10 has the luxury of drafting a pure scoring 4 who is an upright, up and down player who isn't great on the boards and can't be expected to play the 5.

Basically what I'm saying is I think there's no chance that Haliburton, Okongwu, or even Vassell will be there at 9.

In such a scenario, I'm hoping that Boston would be desperate for say Nesmith, Cole, or Toppin.

We get #14 and #26, pickup Achiuwa and Tyler Bey. We'd have so much flexibility at the 4 and 5 spots between Hachimura, Bey, Bryant , Achiuwa that I might actually look to move Bertans in a sign and trade or something or later at the deadline.

[dckingsfan]

I'm kind of surprised there's not much talk about Precious Achiuwa here. I think he might be my clear pick given what I imagine might happen draft wise. I've got a feeling Obi Toppin will fall to us, but we might pass. I just don't see how anyone in the top 10 has the luxury of drafting a pure scoring 4 who is an upright, up and down player who isn't great on the boards and can't be expected to play the 5.

Basically what I'm saying is I think there's no chance that Haliburton, Okongwu, or even Vassell will be there at 9.

In such a scenario, I'm hoping that Boston would be desperate for say Nesmith, Cole, or Toppin.

We get #14 and #26, pickup Achiuwa and Tyler Bey. We'd have so much flexibility at the 4 and 5 spots between Hachimura, Bey, Bryant , Achiuwa that I might actually look to move Bertans in a sign and trade or something or later at the deadline.

Do you see one of Achiuwa or Bey dropping to 26? I don't think that will happen.

[Dark Faze]

Do you see one of Achiuwa or Bey dropping to 26? I don't think that will happen.

Achiuwa of course not, but I think he'll be there at #14 of my scenario. Bey at 26 is dicey, I think it'll be close but very possible. If he's gone there likely to be some interesting options to go with.

[DCZards]

I'm kind of surprised there's not much talk about Precious Achiuwa here. I think he might be my clear pick given what I imagine might happen draft wise. I've got a feeling Obi Toppin will fall to us, but we might pass. I just don't see how anyone in the top 10 has the luxury of drafting a pure scoring 4 who is an upright, up and down player who isn't great on the boards and can't be expected to play the 5.

Basically what I'm saying is I think there's no chance that Haliburton, Okongwu, or even Vassell will be there at 9.

In such a scenario, I'm hoping that Boston would be desperate for say Nesmith, Cole, or Toppin.

We get #14 and #26, pickup Achiuwa and Tyler Bey. We'd have so much flexibility at the 4 and 5 spots between Hachimura, Bey, Bryant , Achiuwa that I might actually look to move Bertans in a sign and trade or something or later at the deadline.

I have Precious on my short list for 9. If a trade down is possible and you can get him with the 12-14 pick, great. But I don't agree that picking a player at 9 who's at 12 in most mocks is a stretch because it's such a crapshoot anyway after the first few picks. I'm sure a lot of teams wish they had "stretched" and drafted Giannis or Kawhi. (Of course, I'm not suggesting that Achiuwa is going to be as good as either of them.)

If Tommy S. & the Zards believe Precious is their guy--he certainly fills a critical need as a rebounder, shotblocker and defender--then you take him at 9 and not sweat about where some pundits or fans have him mocked.

[payitforward]

Though I don't think I would pick Achiuwa #9, Zards' point is still a good one.... if it's not possible to trade down (& it may not be).

If we're just swapping picks, the most practical trade partner might be Boston, but there are other possibilities. E.g. we might swap our #9 for the Spurs #11 & #41. Or for the Kings #12, #43 & a R2 pick next year. Or the Pels #13, #39, & a pick next year.

Achiuwa is very likely to be available at any of those next few spots. & the risk we took would be compensated by the extra pick(s) we got in the trade.

For that matter, it's certainly possible that we would trade up -- say our 2 picks to the Hawks (e.g. if it would get us Okongwu)? Especially if we were able to buy #34 or #36 (or both!) from Philly.

But, I don't think it can be about Tommy et. al. believing that "Precious is their guy." When the pick comes us, you have to believe that Precious Achiuwa is the best prospective NBA player in the draft. Period. Otherwise, you have wasted your pick.

That said, it's possible to be wrong! Zards mentions Giannis & Kawhi, the best players available in their drafts -- they should have gone #1, both of them -- & there are plenty of other examples: Jimmy Butler & Nikola Jokic being the 2 most obvious other examples, along with Draymond, Middleton & IT. Brandon Clarke may turn out to be another such.

In fact, considering those guys one could even say that it's overwhelmingly likely to be wrong! -- but you'd better at least think you are picking the BPA, at least be trying to do that!

[Frichuela]

If we can not get Okongwu at #9, a trade down with Boston that would net us Nesmith or S Bey at #14 and Tillman at #26 would be great...one can dream!

[payitforward]

Honestly, I don't see why that's a dream -- though we might need to give a little more than #9 for #14 & #26 -- e.g. some $$. Or else trade #9 & #37 for #14, 26 & 47.

Of course, you can't make everybody happy! At #14, Precious would please Zards. Saddiq Bey would please Ruzious. Pokusevski would please pcbothwei. Jalen Smith would please CCJ. & Nesmith would please you!

But, I think we'd all be pleased by Tillman at #26 & Malachi Flynn at #47. I question whether he is on the board that long, however. But, if he is -- & then we sign Nathan Knight & either Skylar Mays or Nate Hinton undrafted... that would be quite a draft haul! The undrafted guys would be 2-way players I suppose. At least one of them, anyway.

[Ruzious]

I'm kind of surprised there's not much talk about Precious Achiuwa here. I think he might be my clear pick given what I imagine might happen draft wise. I've got a feeling Obi Toppin will fall to us, but we might pass. I just don't see how anyone in the top 10 has the luxury of drafting a pure scoring 4 who is an upright, up and down player who isn't great on the boards and can't be expected to play the 5.

Basically what I'm saying is I think there's no chance that Haliburton, Okongwu, or even Vassell will be there at 9.

In such a scenario, I'm hoping that Boston would be desperate for say Nesmith, Cole, or Toppin.

We get #14 and #26, pickup Achiuwa and Tyler Bey. We'd have so much flexibility at the 4 and 5 spots between Hachimura, Bey, Bryant , Achiuwa that I might actually look to move Bertans in a sign and trade or something or later at the deadline.

Toppin might not end up a good NBA player, but he's the kind of prospect teams drool over - I can't see him sliding past 6. I'd pass on Precious that high because he's so limited offensively. And while he's a strong and explosive athlete, I don't believe he's the 6'9 that he's listed at - gotta see what he measures at at the combine. If I'm right, that might scare some teams. Hmm, that last sentence didn't come out right. But it would be funny if someone named Precious won a ring (Lord of the Rings reference).

[Frichuela]

Shame that Vassell, S Bey and Okongwu will not take part in the combine...(in addition to Edwards, Wiseman and Toppin)

Interested to see the measurements of others participating including Okoro, Tillman, Flynn, Terry and Bane.

[Frichuela]

Shame that Vassell, S Bey and Okongwu will not take part in the combine...(in addition to Edwards, Wiseman and Toppin)

Interested to see the measurements of others participating including Okoro, Tillman, Flynn, Terry and Bane.

Full list here

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[payitforward]

I read someone/somewhere who described Precious as a slightly bigger Jerami Grant.

[Dat2U]

Overall thoughts,

Depth of this class is backup PG/backup C. Very poor value at the top of the draft. Very strong value in the 20s and 30s. No blue chip prospects. This draft will likely produce very few all-stars and a large number of role players. More role players than in a typical year. Likely less starters too. I count 6 lottery worthy prospects but as noted, the bottom of the 1st round/early 2nd is loaded with potential goodies that could fill out a team's future rotation.

I also must note the absolutely dreadful depth at the wing position, or the 4 spot for that matter. This likely inflates the value of the few options that are there at either spot.

Tier 1 - clear top 3 pick in ANY year

None

Tier 2 - clear top 5 pick in ANY year

1. LaMelo Ball

Tier 3 - Mid-to-late lottery

2. Killian Hayes
3. Onyeka Okongwu
4. James Wiseman
5. Tyrese Haliburton
6. Deni Avdija

Tier 4 - Mid-1st to early 20s

7. Aaron Nesmith
8. Anthony Edwards
9. Saddiq Bey
10. Issac Okoro
11. Obi Toppin
12. Aleksej Pokusevski
13. Paul Reed

Tier 5 - Late 1st/early 2nd (20s-30s)

14. Tyrell Terry
15. Malachi Flynn
16. R.J. Hampton
17. Josh Green
18. Devin Vassell
19. Jalen Smith
20. Vernon Carey Jr
22. Xavier Tillman
23. Tyler Bey
24. Payton Pritchard
25. Cassius Winston
26. Kira Lewis Jr
27. Theo Maledon
28. Cassius Stanley
29. Precious Achiuwa
30. Devon Dotson
31. Tre Jones
32. Tyrese Maxey
33. Jaden McDaniels
34. Leandro Bolmaro
35. Grant Riller
36. Cole Anthony

Tier 6 - 2nd round fliers (40 & below)

37. Desmond Bane
38. Isaiah Joe
39. Immanuel Quickley
40. Isaiah Stewart
41. Nico Mannion
42. Killian Tillie
43. Patrick Williams
44. Elijah Hughes
45. Udoka Azubuike
46. Skylar Mays
47. Kenyon Martin Jr
48. Reggie Perry
49. Daniel Oturu
50. Jordan Nwora
51. Robert Woodard II
52. Nate Hinton
53. Borisa Simanic
54. Jay Scrubb
55. Mason Jones

[payitforward]

Dat -- do you mean for the order of players listed in a given tier to be significant?

For example, does your list indicate that you think Desmond Bane is just that little bit better than Isaiah Joe? & a little bit more better than Quickley?

[Dat2U]

Dat -- do you mean for the order of players listed in a given tier to be significant?

For example, does your list indicate that you think Desmond Bane is just that little bit better than Isaiah Joe? & a little bit more better than Quickley?

If you held a gun to my head, I would pick x over y but they are grouped together b/c there's very little separation in my eyes. When they are all in the same tier, in most cases its just about fit.

[TGW]

Looks like the Wizards spoke with Hayes and Jalen Smith:

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020-nba-draft