2019-20 NBA Season Discussion

[SideshowBob]

In 5 year RAPM Jrue is the player right under Jimmy lol.

I think longer term +/- samples are exactly the datasets that are going to highlight dudes like Jimmy and Jrue. Enough player/lineup changes around them in a 5-year period that their intangible impact is actually able to signal through, whereas in a single season the model would be more likely to (wrongly) consider it noise.

[Heej]

I have the Lakers in 6, but hope for a Heat in 7.

It's going to be a really interesting matchup because of how different the two teams are in terms of style. The Lakers have the two best players by far, but we easily have the next 5 or 6 best players. We are one of the best 3pts shooting team in the league, the Lakers are a below average one. They are really huge on size, and we play a modern style small bal.

I'm scared of AD, I'm not sure how well Bam will be able to defend him because of his size. We struggled to keep Kanter out of the paint, and Brook Lopez also scored at will in the post. Dwight, AD and Lebron might be too much size for us to keep playing Bam as the only big man. It might be a good series for Meyes Leonard actually.

On the other hand, we might be the best equiped team to defend Lebron. We have 4 credible defenders to put on him in Bam, Crowder, Iggy and Butler. We managed to build a wall in front of Giannis, but Lebron is not the same animal. His IQ and passing are otherwordly and he can still punish us in the midrange and in the post. I'm not sure how well the zone would work against two overwhelming talents. The Lakers role players hitting three will, obviously, be a huge factor on how this series turns out.

The Lakers are a great defensive team but I'm not too worried about this side of the ball for Miami. We did just fine against two of the best defenses in the league. We just need to keep the turnovers low and I think we will be fine on that end (easier said than done of course). I don't think the Lakers can afford to double Dragic like they doubled Murray on that last game.

Let's see. I could totally see the Lakers blowing us out but if we keep the games close, I like our chances against anyone given how good we played the whole year in the 4th.

It's statements like this that make me feel like I can't wait for the Lakers to smack the f*** out of the Heat in the Finals. Half your role players are 1 way weakpoints that will get bumhunted on defense once AD annihilates your zone at the nail. KCP is a better playoff role player than everyone on Heat apart from Dragic and Herro. People don't still don't understand that the playoff metagame is about having less weaknesses more than it is about having greater strengths. The Lakers have an abundance of 2 way role players, this is why they've smoked their way through the Western Conference. People who make ignorant statements like this are just purposefully ignoring what they're seeing in front of them because they want the matchups to go a certain way.

?? You can disagree without being agressive about it. The Celtics and Bucks were also saying that they would hunt Herro/Robinson/Dragic and that there was no way we would win, that they have no weakpoints on defense while we have 3 liability. That they had 5 of the top 6 players in the Celtics series. We won those two series with a 8-3 record. Boston had Kemba/Brown/Tatum, and to lesser extent Hayward/Smart to exploit our weaker defenders. Apart from Lebron and AD, Green, KCP, Caruso, Morris, Howard and Rondo are not going to exploit anything.

Do you consider KCP to be their 3rd best guy? Because if you are, KCP being better than everyone on the Heat appart from Bam/Butler/Dragic/Herro still means we have 4 players better than their 3rd guy. I said 5-6 (easily might have been too strong of a word), so you disagree on Robinson and Crowder. Given the rest of your post, you obviously think that Robinson is a defensive liability (he is not nearly as bad as people think), but Crowder is a two way player who is a having an inconsistent but still quite good playoff. KCP being better is arguable.

Like I said, I'm not sure how well the zone is going to work against LA, and I could see them blow us out. But you are acting like the Lakers are playing the Orlando Magic. The Heat are in the finals for a reason.

Lol I'm being aggressive about it because that statement is hyperbolic af and highly disrespectful to the Lakers role players. And that's fine, the Celtics also don't have supernova talent like Lebron or AD and Giannis was getting triple teamed with guys like Bledsoe being completely ignored, building a wall is a gimmick strategy that's not gonna work nearly as well on the Lakers.

And I'm sure they're more competent than people expect, but Marcus Smart made Duncan Robinson look like a baby back b**** in the post, and Tyler Herro holding up on Tatum and Brown is nowhere near comparable to trying to stop enraged Grown Man strength LeBron. I do think KCP has been the 3rd best player overall, and he's damn near an elite role player in this league and quite clearly in the tier just below the elite ones like Dragic or Smart imo. Crowder can't even attack a closeout properly and will record scratch if you Sprint out to him. KCP will drive on a closeout and bang it on you lol. That's a whole other tier of utility as a role player in the playoffs, especially with him shooting 42% from 3 and defending the opposing teams best guard.

Danny Green is honestly better because he's on the short list of the best help defending 2 Guards in the league. People have been highly disrespectful of the Lakers role players all year, and I would've been too if it weren't for the 2019 Raptors opening my eyes to how much more valuable a +2 Offense/+2 Defense role player is in the playoffs than a +4 O/0 D one. 2 way play synergizes way more than having one dimensional guys like the white dudes Miami is trotting out.

Ultimately tho, Top end talent matters more in the playoffs. The Celtics had a bunch of B+ talent with Tatum maybe being an A- at best. LeBron and AD are A++ talent, you don't need anyone else exploiting weak defenders when you got those 2. AD was making Paul Millsap look unequipped to defend him, he's gonna make the tiny Heat wings like Crowder (6'6" at best) or Butler look like fools when they defend him in the post.

[CKRT]

I need to eat some crow here, I for sure thought the bubble was going to be a failure. I didn't even think they were going to make it to the second round, so hats off to the NBA and Silver for this.

[Orin]

Spoiler:

It's statements like this that make me feel like I can't wait for the Lakers to smack the f*** out of the Heat in the Finals. Half your role players are 1 way weakpoints that will get bumhunted on defense once AD annihilates your zone at the nail. KCP is a better playoff role player than everyone on Heat apart from Dragic and Herro. People don't still don't understand that the playoff metagame is about having less weaknesses more than it is about having greater strengths. The Lakers have an abundance of 2 way role players, this is why they've smoked their way through the Western Conference. People who make ignorant statements like this are just purposefully ignoring what they're seeing in front of them because they want the matchups to go a certain way.

?? You can disagree without being agressive about it. The Celtics and Bucks were also saying that they would hunt Herro/Robinson/Dragic and that there was no way we would win, that they have no weakpoints on defense while we have 3 liability. That they had 5 of the top 6 players in the Celtics series. We won those two series with a 8-3 record. Boston had Kemba/Brown/Tatum, and to lesser extent Hayward/Smart to exploit our weaker defenders. Apart from Lebron and AD, Green, KCP, Caruso, Morris, Howard and Rondo are not going to exploit anything.

Do you consider KCP to be their 3rd best guy? Because if you are, KCP being better than everyone on the Heat appart from Bam/Butler/Dragic/Herro still means we have 4 players better than their 3rd guy. I said 5-6 (easily might have been too strong of a word), so you disagree on Robinson and Crowder. Given the rest of your post, you obviously think that Robinson is a defensive liability (he is not nearly as bad as people think), but Crowder is a two way player who is a having an inconsistent but still quite good playoff. KCP being better is arguable.

Like I said, I'm not sure how well the zone is going to work against LA, and I could see them blow us out. But you are acting like the Lakers are playing the Orlando Magic. The Heat are in the finals for a reason.

Lol I'm being aggressive about it because that statement is hyperbolic af and highly disrespectful to the Lakers role players. And that's fine, the Celtics also don't have supernova talent like Lebron or AD and Giannis was getting triple teamed with guys like Bledsoe being completely ignored, building a wall is a gimmick strategy that's not gonna work nearly as well on the Lakers.

And I'm sure they're more competent than people expect, but Marcus Smart made Duncan Robinson look like a baby back b**** in the post, and Tyler Herro holding up on Tatum and Brown is nowhere near comparable to trying to stop enraged Grown Man strength LeBron. I do think KCP has been the 3rd best player overall, and he's damn near an elite role player in this league and quite clearly in the tier just below the elite ones like Dragic or Smart imo. Crowder can't even attack a closeout properly and will record scratch if you Sprint out to him. KCP will drive on a closeout and bang it on you lol. That's a whole other tier of utility as a role player in the playoffs, especially with him shooting 42% from 3 and defending the opposing teams best guard.

Danny Green is honestly better because he's on the short list of the best help defending 2 Guards in the league. People have been highly disrespectful of the Lakers role players all year, and I would've been too if it weren't for the 2019 Raptors opening my eyes to how much more valuable a +2 Offense/+2 Defense role player is in the playoffs than a +4 O/0 D one. 2 way play synergizes way more than having one dimensional guys like the white dudes Miami is trotting out.

Ultimately tho, Top end talent matters more in the playoffs. The Celtics had a bunch of B+ talent with Tatum maybe being an A- at best. LeBron and AD are A++ talent, you don't need anyone else exploiting weak defenders when you got those 2. AD was making Paul Millsap look unequipped to defend him, he's gonna make the tiny Heat wings like Crowder (6'6" at best) or Butler look like fools when they defend him in the post.

So we are just disagreeing with Robinson/Crowder against KCP/Green. I don't take offense in you calling Dragic a role player despite him playing like an all-star the whole playoffs. Let's see which Crowder shows up against LA. He was incredible against the Bucks and actually guarded Giannis a lot, but shot very poorly against Boston who was one of the very best team in the league in defending the 3pts line. The truth is, for players like Crowder, Green, KCP, their value is highly dependent on them hitting their shots. Yes, KCP can occasionally drive to the hoop, and Crowder is also able to make smart cuts to the basket as showed in the Boston series. But when they go on shooting slumps, their offensive value drops close to zero. Robinson, even when hitting only 35% of his shots, has incredible value on the offensive end with his ball movement and gravity.

In the end, in doesn't really matter how we rank those players individually since we need to evaluate them in the context of their team, but if you are suggesting that "the one dimensional white dudes" that Miami is playing are not synergizing well, I don't really know what to tell you. We've clearly been playing better than the individual sum of our parts, on both ends of the floor.

Destroying the zone will be important for the Lakers, and yes, as I said in my first post, I'm not sure how well the zone will hold up when facing two megastars. But if the Lakers role players don't hit their shots, it will be much more difficult for them.

[BigFaceCoffee]

Lol I'm being aggressive about it because that statement is hyperbolic af and highly disrespectful to the Lakers role players

And you saying “I can't wait for the Lakers to smack the f*** out of the Heat in the Finals. Half your role players are 1 way weakpoints that will get bumhunted on defense once AD annihilates your zone at the nail” isn’t highly disrespectful to the Eastern Conference Championship Heat’s role players?

Sounds like you could use some coffee. You’re not you when you’re decaffeinated.

[Peregrine01]

Incredible how effective a simple 2-3 zone is. I think Lakers will struggle with it a bit given their high P&R heavy attack.

I expect LeBron and company to struggle in game 1. The zone is an interesting task to attack and I do not believe the Lakers role players will be ready to attack it in game 1. There is no doubt LeBron will be ready in game 1 but I imagine the role players, outside of Rondo and Caruso, to struggle as it takes a high amount of IQ and a lot of motion to beat successfully.

I expect Game 1 to go to Miami, something like 105-98.

From what I've seen, the Lakers struggle to score in the half court more, especially when their shooters aren't hitting and they tend to be streaky. The Lakers have struggled against the zone in the few games I've seen them play in the regular season and I don't view AD as a really good secondary play maker. The zone does tend to give up offensive rebounds though and this is an area that the Lakers can hurt Miami if they play it.

[Heej]

Lol I'm being aggressive about it because that statement is hyperbolic af and highly disrespectful to the Lakers role players

And you saying “I can't wait for the Lakers to smack the f*** out of the Heat in the Finals. Half your role players are 1 way weakpoints that will get bumhunted on defense once AD annihilates your zone at the nail” isn’t highly disrespectful to the Eastern Conference Championship Heat’s role players?

Sounds like you could use some coffee. You’re not you when you’re decaffeinated.

I'm keeping the same energy throughout don't stress it G ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[MyUniBroDavis]

Incredible how effective a simple 2-3 zone is. I think Lakers will struggle with it a bit given their high P&R heavy attack.

I expect LeBron and company to struggle in game 1. The zone is an interesting task to attack and I do not believe the Lakers role players will be ready to attack it in game 1. There is no doubt LeBron will be ready in game 1 but I imagine the role players, outside of Rondo and Caruso, to struggle as it takes a high amount of IQ and a lot of motion to beat successfully.

I expect Game 1 to go to Miami, something like 105-98.

From what I've seen, the Lakers struggle to score in the half court more, especially when their shooters aren't hitting and they tend to be streaky. The Lakers have struggled against the zone in the few games I've seen them play in the regular season and I don't view AD as a really good secondary play maker. The zone does tend to give up offensive rebounds though and this is an area that the Lakers can hurt Miami if they play it.

I think thte lakers were the second most effective team against zone during the RS

[MyUniBroDavis]

It's statements like this that make me feel like I can't wait for the Lakers to smack the f*** out of the Heat in the Finals. Half your role players are 1 way weakpoints that will get bumhunted on defense once AD annihilates your zone at the nail. KCP is a better playoff role player than everyone on Heat apart from Dragic and Herro. People don't still don't understand that the playoff metagame is about having less weaknesses more than it is about having greater strengths. The Lakers have an abundance of 2 way role players, this is why they've smoked their way through the Western Conference. People who make ignorant statements like this are just purposefully ignoring what they're seeing in front of them because they want the matchups to go a certain way.

?? You can disagree without being agressive about it. The Celtics and Bucks were also saying that they would hunt Herro/Robinson/Dragic and that there was no way we would win, that they have no weakpoints on defense while we have 3 liability. That they had 5 of the top 6 players in the Celtics series. We won those two series with a 8-3 record. Boston had Kemba/Brown/Tatum, and to lesser extent Hayward/Smart to exploit our weaker defenders. Apart from Lebron and AD, Green, KCP, Caruso, Morris, Howard and Rondo are not going to exploit anything.

Do you consider KCP to be their 3rd best guy? Because if you are, KCP being better than everyone on the Heat appart from Bam/Butler/Dragic/Herro still means we have 4 players better than their 3rd guy. I said 5-6 (easily might have been too strong of a word), so you disagree on Robinson and Crowder. Given the rest of your post, you obviously think that Robinson is a defensive liability (he is not nearly as bad as people think), but Crowder is a two way player who is a having an inconsistent but still quite good playoff. KCP being better is arguable.

Like I said, I'm not sure how well the zone is going to work against LA, and I could see them blow us out. But you are acting like the Lakers are playing the Orlando Magic. The Heat are in the finals for a reason.

Lol I'm being aggressive about it because that statement is hyperbolic af and highly disrespectful to the Lakers role players. And that's fine, the Celtics also don't have supernova talent like Lebron or AD and Giannis was getting triple teamed with guys like Bledsoe being completely ignored, building a wall is a gimmick strategy that's not gonna work nearly as well on the Lakers.

And I'm sure they're more competent than people expect, but Marcus Smart made Duncan Robinson look like a baby back b**** in the post, and Tyler Herro holding up on Tatum and Brown is nowhere near comparable to trying to stop enraged Grown Man strength LeBron. I do think KCP has been the 3rd best player overall, and he's damn near an elite role player in this league and quite clearly in the tier just below the elite ones like Dragic or Smart imo. Crowder can't even attack a closeout properly and will record scratch if you Sprint out to him. KCP will drive on a closeout and bang it on you lol. That's a whole other tier of utility as a role player in the playoffs, especially with him shooting 42% from 3 and defending the opposing teams best guard.

Danny Green is honestly better because he's on the short list of the best help defending 2 Guards in the league. People have been highly disrespectful of the Lakers role players all year, and I would've been too if it weren't for the 2019 Raptors opening my eyes to how much more valuable a +2 Offense/+2 Defense role player is in the playoffs than a +4 O/0 D one. 2 way play synergizes way more than having one dimensional guys like the white dudes Miami is trotting out.

Ultimately tho, Top end talent matters more in the playoffs. The Celtics had a bunch of B+ talent with Tatum maybe being an A- at best. LeBron and AD are A++ talent, you don't need anyone else exploiting weak defenders when you got those 2. AD was making Paul Millsap look unequipped to defend him, he's gonna make the tiny Heat wings like Crowder (6'6" at best) or Butler look like fools when they defend him in the post.

I mean in terms of matchups i think we matchup against miami quite well. Their only iso wing scorer guy is jimmy, and wing scoring is what us hard for us to stop vs big scoring or guard scoring, mostly because kcp isnt strong enough to check wings, and they dont have a money olay like the jamal and jokic pick and roll that means automismatch

If we wanna stop the 2-3 its based off of can ad hit the open midrange jumper and can he find those lobs, and hes done both and hit more middies than ever before so far, so lets see if he continues. Otoh i dont think he can iso against bam that well

Alot of it is players being good in their roles, caruso is great in his role but in a vacuum hes a bad offensive guard and a good defensive one, but on the lakers hes a smart cutter and screener for a guard and one of their lockdown defenders, def top 5 in the lakers squad.

If we are talking about talent heat probably do have 3-7, but we can exploit the weaknesses of their guys more than the can for ours. Butler/dragix/bam/robinson are all 3-6 guys easily, and herro's a bucket and obv his talent is insane. In practice id rather have caruso than robinson or herro for this lakers squad, although that isnt the case for the heat squad (id rather have herro or robinson if im the heat). I wouldnt put green or kcp above robinson either, because theres a pretty big gap offensively and idt hes that bad on D

The most interesting matchup is def if AD can score well on bam. Bam reminds me of 2015 AD sometimes, and hes prolly the best AD defender in the league atm, him or gobert. Hes so athletic and can prolly stick with him on the drive, i feel AD wont go at him much. In the 2 games they played bam didnt even guard AD idt.

Bams prolly the only center that might be as laterally quick as AD, and ADs a guy that prolly likes dealing with strong lumbering mismatches more than the quick shorter types, bam is jist kind of a counter but then again maybe he doesnt guard ad again for whatever reason.

Bron will prolly win finals mvp cuz its easier to mismatch hunt although jimmys a good bron defender too

The heat are gonna be really hard to beat defensively i feel, even with mismatches here and there theyre def the best defensive team we faced, and coaching wise spoelestras a tier above everyone even stevens/malone/kerr, but their offense isnt as scary as the nuggets was

[freethedevil]

Lol I'm being aggressive about it because that statement is hyperbolic af and highly disrespectful to the Lakers role players

And you saying “I can't wait for the Lakers to smack the f*** out of the Heat in the Finals. Half your role players are 1 way weakpoints that will get bumhunted on defense once AD annihilates your zone at the nail” isn’t highly disrespectful to the Eastern Conference Championship Heat’s role players?

Sounds like you could use some coffee. You’re not you when you’re decaffeinated.

**** THE LAKERS

EAST IS STRONK

[Blackmill]

What do people make of Vogel's adjustment strategy?

I think he's made the very good adjustments but I also think he makes them intentionally slowly (I say intentionally because I don't think it's oversight -- he's a very good coach imo). Dwight playing much better than McGee in the Denver series could have been anticipated but Dwight didn't start over McGee until G4. Running ram and double high ball screens was an easy fix for LeBron's scoring troubles but only really present in the 2nd and 4th quarters of G5.

Basically I think these changes could have happened after G2. And certainly by the second half of G3. So why weren't they made then? I could understand not making adjustments if the team is winning easily. But the Lakers wins against Denver were anything but easy in G2 and G4 (and of course they lost G3). Any one else wonder why?

[MyUniBroDavis]

What do people make of Vogel's adjustment strategy?

I think he's made the very good adjustments but I also think he makes them intentionally slowly (I say intentionally because I don't think it's oversight -- he's a very good coach imo). Dwight playing much better than McGee in the Denver series could have been anticipated but Dwight didn't start over McGee until G4. Running ram and double high ball screens was an easy fix for LeBron's scoring troubles but only really present in the 2nd and 4th quarters of G5.

Basically I think these changes could have happened after G2. And certainly by the second half of G3. So why weren't they? I could understand not making adjustments if the team is winning easily. But the Lakers wins against Denver were anything but easy in G2 and G4 (and of course they lost G3). Any one else wonder why?

He takes a bit to make them and sometimes has brain farts (they went away from their switching strat in g3 idk why) but he makes good ones when they happen.

The dwight adjustment asnt as important as the things thay did to give lebron better driving lanes in g5 imo

Let me rephrase that, he wS already kinf of doing that but i feel the tactical adjustments were more impressive/reassuring

[ardee]

I need to eat some crow here, I for sure thought the bubble was going to be a failure. I didn't even think they were going to make it to the second round, so hats off to the NBA and Silver for this.

With this much money on the line, they weren't going to do it if it couldn't be done properly.

[MisterHibachi]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Oh ****. I thought Kawhi was fully behind Doc and he was one of the reasons he came to the Clippers?

[limbo]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Oh ****. I thought Kawhi was fully behind Doc and he was one of the reasons he came to the Clippers?

A lot can change in a year.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Clippers (P) Layoffs

Incase you wonder where george got the p from

[MartinToVaught]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Oh ****. I thought Kawhi was fully behind Doc and he was one of the reasons he came to the Clippers?

Players always say this about the current coach. In reality, this isn't college. Superstar free agents aren't picking their team for the coach. And even if he did like Doc initially, that was before Doc did what he does best with a 3-1 lead.

Frankly, the Clippers should have moved on from Doc five years ago, but at least they've finally come to their senses.

[Jordan Syndrome]

Let's hope the next coach doesn't have a daughter

[Doctor MJ]

Clippers (P) Layoffs

Incase you wonder where george got the p from

I thought it was short for "DNP".

[eminence]

This seems like it'll be the busiest coaching change offseason in a while.