Thunder design analysis

[jambalaya]

Found another issue with the tool but it is getting cleaned up. The earlier comments may need some different verbage but I think the earlier comments hold up as far as they went.

One interesting development has to do with completing lineups with little apparent impact but little harm players. Like Ferguson. I may go into that more in future. Once I see the second issue fix and try to make sure there are no others.

[jambalaya]

The tool
https://crumpledpaperjumper.shinyapps.io/SimilarLineupFinder/
The big issues fixed.

Adding Dunn to Schroder SGA Bazley Adams generates similar non OKC lineups that outperform their PIPM talent (in the lineup for tab). Add Mclemore, not positive on lineup fit.

To focus on non OKC similar lineups, select "all" under teams
and type the names in until their pop up complete. Under "Thunder" you can only pick Thunder players.

Put in other players with that core or pick a different core. Remember this is rating similar lineups. For the specific lineup you have its actual performance or similar lineups with or without those players.

Lots to see. Decide what you want to see / focus on.

[jambalaya]

Using the tool I found what may be the line up in league with best performing similar lineups: J Murray Booker Leonard Turner Gobert at avg of almost +15/ 100p. Ferguson and Dort in Turner's place were in next best tier. It appears a 5th man who mostly doesn't hurt can work and be better than trying to shove another star in to make a too crowded creation and shooting situation.

[jambalaya]

This core quad and Hollis Jefferson, similar lineups to it average performing and avg fit. With Chris Boucher, similars are avg performing but that is with a better than avg fit.

As said before and now re-said: it is not that much of a core as is. Would need development and replacement parts to do much.

[jambalaya]

Main shortfall of that quad core is, no surprise, spacing (and shooting quality). Rim defense could be better but Bazley provides some help to the well less than elite activity level of Adams.

A forward who could space would help. A T Harris type seems to help similar lineups overperform expectations. I wouldn't want him generally and don't expect him though. A cheaper, younger, realistic acquisition? Maybe in draft.

[jambalaya]

SGA 9th worst playoff O-PIPM estimate. A lot of it may be because of the ill-advised, but stubborn reliance on starters with Dort and not enough 3 PG lineup time. But bottomline his OPIPM needs to go up about 75-100 places in future for contention prospects.

Adams 4th worst O-PIPM. I strongly prefer he be traded. No big money extension. Mild extension? Maybe but I'd probably rather move on. I don't particularly like or trust his effort or fitness.

[jambalaya]

On a new adjusted teammate net impact tool by Jacob Goldstein at winsadded.com, I see that no teammate saw a worse trend in team results playing with SGA compared to without FOR SEASON than Bazley (and Nader). Most rotation players saw far worsw team results with Bazley than without except Paul, Adams and 1-2 others who were more mildly negative with than without.

[jambalaya]

In this playoffs, Thunder had 15th offensive efficiency and 6th defensive efficiency. Next to last offense doomed them. The Rockets were good on defense or just looked it. Lakers had little trouble.

6th best on defense wasnt enough to save them. It was based on fouling the least and defensive rebounding the best. Those are nice but pretty passive.

13th on own team efg% and ts%. 8th or worse on all offensive factors. Dead last own turnovers.

Got to have a coach and PG who can lead a much better offense. Defense needs to be more aggressive.

None of the starters fully passed on both sides of the court.

Need vastly more spacing / shooting. Creation, the 3 PGs helped but there may have been too much diversity and not enough control. Rim protection? Not enough probably. 3 point closeouts? Probably not good enough. Opponent turnovers? Probably not enough effort or overall savvy or intelligent scheme.

Billy's gone but a lot of front office folks remain and got promoted today. Did they do enough on getting shooter / scorers, advising on lineups, helping fix turnovers or pushing the defense to be more aggressive / elite? Nope. But they got promoted and will probably continue to do and do not a lot of the same stuff. The Thunder way.

Seems like Donovan wanted out. Anybody else "not good enough"? I'd say probably yes but Presti has his people.

How much will coaching staff change? I dunno. It will probably change some. But it may be more of the better leave and others stay.

The failure to get or develop adequate shooting in recent years is a failure at the executive level and probably at lower levels too. It was partly a Donovan and coaching staff failure. Are they willing to admit to the shortcoming? What are they going to do to remedy it? New Coach & staff probably ought to do something different. Probably to include fighting far more aggressively and relentlessly for more shooting based roster decisions. Not much reason for me to believe the front office is going to finally fix it on their own. No skin off their noses.

[jambalaya]

-39 pts / 100 possession starring lineup? Donovan failure. Presti failure. Chris Paul and 4 others failure. Analytics failure. Everybody failure.

8 positive lineups used 1-3 minutes each per game? They were only modest level successes (and some random) because not enough time given.

[jambalaya]

The two massive, overriding priorities for personnel changes are 3 point shooting and rebounding. Shots at rim, by whatever means, 3rd priority.

Most or all moves should aim at significant improvement of at least one of these, with no or limited slippage on the others. Deals that offer solid improvement on 2 or more of the priorities should be the focus and would justify more use of overall assets.

Dort is weak on 2 and may or may not be ok at pressuring the rim. He'll probably improve but how much and will it be enough? For a starter or a backup. Bazley might eventually be ok at 2 (probably just rebounding now and only defensive rebounding) but is currently weak at 2. Will he be good or better at any soon? I dunno. I lean toward probably not but 3 point shooting is the best candidate for becoming good.

Impending losses of veterans / team leaders in these categories will make not slipping further challenging. The losses will likely take multiple moves to cover or advance as needed.

[jambalaya]

How much the Thunder play changes next season depends on how long Oubre and Adams stick around and how much the draft rights acquisitions play. But the longer term forecast is for multi-skill players, a lot of positionless flow of activity and presumably a lot of uptempo push.

There will be lots of 3pt shots put up. The fg% will probably be average to below average in near term but maybe it improves. Rebounding is probably below average. Assists might be fairly average. Defense will have effort. Probably average results.

It is a start. A start with hope for newness. Time will tell how much.

[jambalaya]

As of right now, I'd say the future core is Maledon, Krejci, SGA, Dort, Josh Hall, Bazley and Poku.


Micic might come over year after next, get traded or never come over.

[jambalaya]

There will be different rotations before and after this, but if the core in 21-22 is Micic, Maledon, Krejci, SGA, Dort, Josh Hall, Bazley and Poku, minutes might work as something like Micic 24, Maledon 20 Krejci 18, SGA 34, Dort 20, Josh Hall 14 , Bazley 26 and Poku 24 and 60 minutes of bigs to be determined.

[jambalaya]

'Clearing the way for Shai to be on the ball full-time' means Hill is probably gone quickly, Jerome to SG, F Jackson more sketchy to start the season on main roster and Maledon off to a small role. Gray almost certainly gone.

Shai will have big per game numbers (probably including missed shots and turnovers). Overall impact? We'll see. No more riding the edges.

Creates more space at SG for non-shooters to play. Dort probably starts. Diallo still in rotation for no good reason really but hopefully the hype is for a trade.

Slipping back to old way. Could be one main passer again. Encouraging heliocentric play / let's make Shai a big star. Probably lots of meh to lousy shooting on the court adding to that direction.

Pokusevski might see half or more of his time this season at SF.

So many players yet to be commented on. By rules / Presti's preference or because they are just barely passing thru.

[mr570]

'Clearing the way for Shai to be on the ball full-time' means Hill is probably gone quickly, Jerome to SG, F Jackson more sketchy to start the season on main roster and Maledon off to a small role. Gray almost certainly gone.

Shai will have big per game numbers (probably including missed shots and turnovers). Overall impact? We'll see. No more riding the edges.

Creates more space at SG for non-shooters to play. Dort probably starts. Diallo still in rotation for no good reason really but hopefully the hype is for a trade.

Slipping back to old way. Could be one main passer again. Encouraging heliocentric play / let's make Shai a big star. Probably lots of meh to lousy shooting on the court adding to that direction.

Pokusevski might see half or more of his time this season at SF.

So many players yet to be commented on. By rules / Presti's preference or because they are just barely passing thru.

You don't think Maledon will lead the second unit if not be on the floor with Shai ahead of Dort at some point?

And this *is* a different coach. I expect him to actually call plays.

[jambalaya]

Maledon will eventually lead 2nd unit but not sure about right out of the gate. At SG? Possible at some point but I am not expecting early. He also has to prove his shooting.

This is a new coach but a former Donovan assistant at 2 levels and a Thunderite for a team known for heavy helicentricism.

[Dadouv47]

Still think George Hill is gonna play a lot of minutes. Don't think it will have a bad impact on SGA game.

[jambalaya]

Who actually shows at start of camp?


SGA running show, if at 1, I'd guess less chance Micic comes to Thunder.

[jambalaya]

Removed duplicate.

[jambalaya]

To extent 82games.com matchup data is decent, SGA shot worst at PG, defended shots worst at PG, had worst overall matchup results at PG and worst team results at PG compared to SG and SF with SF being best at 3 of 4 and close of the other.