The Lebron '20 Thread (Pt. 7)

[MisterHibachi]

It's like they are shaking their fist that you can basically win by just ISOing and having a really good/ great defense. NOOOOO you are rolling back years of the nerd world (3 point shooting, ball movement, depth) SHAKE FIST...PLZ LOSE!.

Reminds me a bit of the sentiment before the 2015 Cavs Hawks series.

[homecourtloss]

Any good deep dives on these finals from a Lakers perspective?

Looking at 538's RAPTOR in the playoffs, seems like Miami overall kind of beats us out, but our top 2 are much better.

But Miami has been playing out of their minds too. Closer when looking at regular season 538 RAPTOR.

538 raptor has been extremely stupid and wrong all playoffs. I believe it had the Rockets over the Lakers too. In 2017 they had the Celtics beating the Cavs in the ECF (pretty certain). 538 should "stick to politics".

RAPTOR gives Miami about a 73%—74% chance to win, i.e., heavy favorites. It gave Boston that same advantage of over Miami but more. Boston would have been an 88%+ Finals favorite over the Lakers. RrAPTOR gave the Rockets a 70% chance of beating the Lakers, too. If Lakers win it without shooting much better from threes, then Lakers will have basically won in a mist uncomventional way that pretty much defies what we normally see in games since it RAPTOR is punishing the Lakers for not making enough open especially and wide-open threes.

I will say that RAPTOR was one of the first models that downgraded the Bucks’ chances of winning the title.

Notice 538’s ELO formula makes the Lakers the favorites.

[limbo]

I think the Lakers are favorites and should take this rather convincingly IF everyone plays at their usual average level... but you honestly can never know for sure.

All it takes is the Lakers going cold from outside while the opposite is true for Miami... Heat also have a lot of guys you can't predict how they're gonna shoot on any given game with guys like Butler, Dragic, Herro, Iggy...

I think Miami will be well prepared from a coaching standpoint. They have theoretically the best AD defender in Bam the Lakers faced so far in thr Playoffs and a couple of veteran guys to throw at Bron that are battle-tested with Crowder, Butler and Iggy, and they are very flexible as a team defensively. Spo has also coached LeBron personally, so he knows arguably better than anyone what LeBron's tendencies are...

Maybe the Lakers get the horrible version of Rondo this time...

You can't know...

[Heej]

Really fun read in this Ringer article

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/9/30/21495166/lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers-miami-heat

“The further you go in a playoff series, the harder he is to beat,” one general manager says. “Because he’s learned more than you the whole time.”

I especially loved this line because it's something I've always said about late-series Lebron. I have no problem whatsoever with people saying Jordan is better than him for 99% of the season, but when it comes to the last 4 games in a series Bron is just better

[nzahir]

I don't love 538 for predictions too much for basketball, but I think it scores some players decently, or at least it did for the regular season

Maybe all these podcasts and people taking the Heat are **** with me

I can already tell I will be very antsy when it starts, already feeling it

[Texas Chuck]

It's like they are shaking their fist that you can basically win by just ISOing and having a really good/ great defense. NOOOOO you are rolling back years of the nerd world (3 point shooting, ball movement, depth) SHAKE FIST...PLZ LOSE!.

Reminds me a bit of the sentiment before the 2015 Cavs Hawks series.

Yep JLei nailed it. The one constant in winning titles is having one of the best players in the world. For all the love affair about how Steve Kerr saved basketball, none of that happens without Steph turning into arguably the best player in the world, Draymond being a top ten player who complements him perfectly, Klay being a perfect complement to both, Iggy doing all his Iggy things and then oh yeah adding Durant.

It's always about the talent. Spurs and Pistons literally the only exceptions and while they didn't have THAT GUY both teams had plus two-way players all over the court and brilliant coaches.

I don't have hope for the Mavs future because they shoot a bunch of 3's and had the most efficient offense ever. I have hope because Luka is trending towards being an MVP caliber player.

Lebron is a beast still. AD as good as you could ever hope for as a sidekick. That's why they are here.

[Joey Wheeler]

The reason those prediction models are so far off the mark is that they try to complicate what is at its core a very simple sport where the team with most talent generally wins.

The Heat are a nice team that play in an analytical way, good for them. But the Lakers have the two best players in the world, so they will win easily again, ultimately talent wins out and all of Heat's ball movement and 3-point shooting will mean nothing against Lebron and AD.

[thebigbird]

Good sign regarding AD resigning with LA.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[Dupp]

The thing with the Miami and 15 hawks comparisons is Miami have two legit stars better than anyone in that hawks team. So while they may be similar in the rounded team ball aspect they do have two guys they can lean on more which is needed in the post season.

[nzahir]

Everyones predictions?

If we win game 1, I got us in 5. If not, I got us in 6

If I had to pick, I would just say 6 to stay conservative and give Miami their respect

[TheGOATRises007]

Everyones predictions?

If we win game 1, I got us in 5. If not, I got us in 6

If I had to pick, I would just say 6 to stay conservative and give Miami their respect

Lakers in 5.

[Doctor MJ]

Really fun read in this Ringer article

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/9/30/21495166/lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers-miami-heat

“The further you go in a playoff series, the harder he is to beat,” one general manager says. “Because he’s learned more than you the whole time.”

I especially loved this line because it's something I've always said about late-series Lebron. I have no problem whatsoever with people saying Jordan is better than him for 99% of the season, but when it comes to the last 4 games in a series Bron is just better

What a great thing for people to say about a competitor. Probably worth a thread who else is in that "he's learning more than you and he's eventually going to be beat" category.

[Doctor MJ]

Good sign regarding AD resigning with LA.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Love this. Whatever happens in terms of chips, I hope the LeBron-AD bromance continues.

[Heej]

Really fun read in this Ringer article

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/9/30/21495166/lebron-james-los-angeles-lakers-miami-heat

“The further you go in a playoff series, the harder he is to beat,” one general manager says. “Because he’s learned more than you the whole time.”

I especially loved this line because it's something I've always said about late-series Lebron. I have no problem whatsoever with people saying Jordan is better than him for 99% of the season, but when it comes to the last 4 games in a series Bron is just better

What a great thing for people to say about a competitor. Probably worth a thread who else is in that "he's learning more than you and he's eventually going to be beat" category.

Pencil in Luka on that list when it's all said and done. I think the traits we're looking for when thinking about this is someone who's both a natural savant and a devoted film watcher.

[D.Brasco]

Good sign regarding AD resigning with LA.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

It would be something if they really try to emulate the Magic-Kareem dynamic. With Kareem being the man at the beginning but when he began to age letting Magic take over and lead them to more rings.

From a personality and friendship stand-point they already seem more Magic and Kareem than Shaq and Kobe.

[thebigbird]

Good sign regarding AD resigning with LA.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Love this. Whatever happens in terms of chips, I hope the LeBron-AD bromance continues.

Their bromance is really cool to see. They had instant chemistry from the very start of the season. It seems different than what we’ve seen with LeBron in the past. Bron and Wade were friends too, but the dynamic between them was always a little different with them coming into the league at the same time and everything.

And for Anthony Davis, what could be cooler as a basketball player than starring for the Lakers alongside the guy who was your favorite player growing up?

[toodles23]

Last time Lebron won game 1 of the Finals in 2012

Nope, they lost game 1 that year before the backdoor sweep. Lebron is 1-8 in Finals game 1s with the only win being against the 2011 Mavs. Goes to Heej's point about Lebron getting better as series go on which is most definitely a real thing, once he gets a chance to watch the film and see how he can really attack he gets much harder to stop.

To further support this Lebron has won 14 playoff series in his career after facing a deficit, which is the most in NBA history. Robert Horry is second with 11.

[Heej]

Good sign regarding AD resigning with LA.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Love this. Whatever happens in terms of chips, I hope the LeBron-AD bromance continues.

Their bromance is really cool to see. They had instant chemistry from the very start of the season. It seems different than what we’ve seen with LeBron in the past. Bron and Wade were friends too, but the dynamic between them was always a little different with them coming into the league at the same time and everything.

And for Anthony Davis, what could be cooler as a basketball player than starring for the Lakers alongside the guy who was your favorite player growing up?

Honestly, even the flipside for LeBron. It must be dope that the heir he finally finds is someone who looked up to HIM and not Kobe the way Kyrie did. Like that's legit more of a little bro relationship than anything else possible. Cuz he knows he's AD's guy and that naturally makes AD his guy more than anything.

And when there's real love like that between brothers, you won't see the older brother getting as jealous of the younger one as he passes him up. Or in the case of Kyrie being jealous of LeBron, I don't think AD is as disposed to that either cuz it must be fun as hell watching his hero outperforming what he expected of him.

[Dupp]

Haven’t been this nervous for a game since 2017. Didn’t stress too much about 2018 that was a complete write off.

[nzahir]

Haven’t been this nervous for a game since 2017. Didn’t stress too much about 2018 that was a complete write off.

I was a bit stressed in 2016 and 2017, but not a ton because I also assumed we were pretty screwed

I thought we were good in 2015 until Kyrie went down

Last time I felt like Lebron should win was 2014. I know the odds had it as a toss up, but I thought Spurs wouldn't kill us as bad from 3 as 2013...boy was I wrong

A little over 2 hours left...