Constructing the Timberwolves rotation

[KGdaBom]

Personally I don't think that GSW will keep their pick. Their core has a lot of mileage of them they played like 7 consecutive season+playoffs... Thats multiple ±100 games seasons in a row. I think they have 2-3 years max before injuries will start to slow them down. They have TPE, and #2 pick to build starting lineup and championship the bench.

As for Avdija, I am afraid he does not have touch to be solid NBA shooter, he also so extremely right hand dominant, so it makes me question whether he can play point forward. I can see him falling out of top5

I'll bet you a dollar that you won't have to pay that he does not fall out of top 5. I've been taking a bit deeper dive on him and his shooting percent and finding it's likely to be pretty good. A great place to check this out is go to the Charlotte board and look at the last couple pages of their Deni Avdija thread.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=1987089&start=100

If Avdija can make consistently 33% shots from NBA three point line he is definitely a top5. I have some concerns about his weak, left hand, but few young players can finish equally well with both hands. In any case, I hope Avdija will have a chance to do a full workout in MIN. I am not sure if official public scrimmages and workouts in front of NBA scouts/executives will be allowed.

He actually dunks with the left a lot and looks natural doing it.

[Domejandro]

I'll bet you a dollar that you won't have to pay that he does not fall out of top 5. I've been taking a bit deeper dive on him and his shooting percent and finding it's likely to be pretty good. A great place to check this out is go to the Charlotte board and look at the last couple pages of their Deni Avdija thread.
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=1987089&start=100

If Avdija can make consistently 33% shots from NBA three point line he is definitely a top5. I have some concerns about his weak, left hand, but few young players can finish equally well with both hands. In any case, I hope Avdija will have a chance to do a full workout in MIN. I am not sure if official public scrimmages and workouts in front of NBA scouts/executives will be allowed.

He actually dunks with the left a lot and looks natural doing it.

Issue is that he can't dribble at all or finish below the basket with his left, which is a massive red flag. He is young, so he could definitely improve a ton, but I would be directly focusing on that, with workouts.

[KGdaBom]

If Avdija can make consistently 33% shots from NBA three point line he is definitely a top5. I have some concerns about his weak, left hand, but few young players can finish equally well with both hands. In any case, I hope Avdija will have a chance to do a full workout in MIN. I am not sure if official public scrimmages and workouts in front of NBA scouts/executives will be allowed.

He actually dunks with the left a lot and looks natural doing it.

Issue is that he can't dribble at all or finish below the basket with his left, which is a massive red flag. He is young, so he could definitely improve a ton, but I would be directly focusing on that, with workouts.

I think that is a tiny red flag. Most players aren't particularly good with their off hand. The FT shooting is the massive red flag.
If it weren't for the FT problems I would take him #1 overall.

[minimus]

https://www.awolfamongwolves.com/rosas-speaks-on-the-value-of-the-bubble-karl-anthony-towns-and-more/

Rosas witnessed a few trends emerge among the teams that have been the most successful in the playoffs – such as playing multiple ball-handlers at the same time as well as playing a versatile talent at the five – trends that he believes Vanderbilt fits into nicely. Rosas stated that, ideally, Vanderbilt can function out of three positions when on the court and possesses a switchability that is highly valuable to a team’s defense. He’s also a big fan of Vanderbilt’s speed.

“Our ability, offensively, to really play fast when you have a guy at that spot who’s able to get up and down the floor as fast as he can really changes the ability of those units and those groups to get up and down the floor. “

I love to hear that from Rosas. It also connects with my posts about PF archetype, 2020 draft prospects and difference with DEN.

* - multiple ball-handlers at the same time. Why this is important to me when we speak about PF/SF. Because one fundamental problem with Thibs vision was a scheme were below average passer and decision makers had to play as the only ball handler in ISO heavy scheme. Teague, Butler, Rose, JC they all had to play this role. Raising the pace leads to increasing numbers of decisions that players have to make in order to execute high level offense. Otherwise it will be turnover after turnover or bad shots. We clearly need more ball-handlers. I expect us to draft one, and to develop one in Vanderbilt

* - "rake and take" = whoever is on the glass rakes the rebound and takes it up the floor themselves. Another confirmation of fast pace model we are going to implement. Non shooting guys such as Vanderbilt and Aaron Gordon will be able to impact the game in scoring column by slashing, running in fast break, finishing lobs, executing short rolls etc. He must be able to hit open 3s, but it will not be PF primary task with DLo, KAT and Beasley on the floor.

* - I hope that we will bring back Kelan Martin. He and Jake Layman are made for five-out, 1-3-1 system. It looks like Timberwolves PR think the same way.

[minimus]

One thing we should adopt from MIA is their conditioning system. I remember this:

Heat ban James Johnson from start of training camp for falling short of conditioning requirements

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/heat-ban-james-johnson-from-start-of-training-camp-for-falling-short-of-conditioning-requirements/

There is no way MIA could run this type of offense with constant off-ball movement without proper athletic preparation.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

JO is already good at dump off passes to dunker spot. Adding variety to his passing game is very intriguing. We need also to help our slasher by lifting corners, making shooters available in open spots on perimeter.

[minimus]

I have been watching these playoffs and I have been kind of depressed thinking about MIN. Then Wolfson farted KAT rumor and finally, Beasley news killed almost any hope left. I have been reading Butler and MIA staff, DEN related things and have become really pessimistic. MIN own fanbase keeps telling me every day that KAT and DLo cant defend, Okogie and Culver cant shoot, Ryan is not a "real" HC, draft is weak etc. We are really starting to dive into negativity and darkness again.

Then I found this post on reddit. If you have 5 minutes, read/watch it, can only recommend it.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/j2cydo/dangelo_russell_threading_the_needle_perhaps_the/

In a nutshell, this post on reddit shows us, that DLo is an elite passer. Not a great passer, an elite passer. A true point guard who is criminally underrated by MIN fans. I think the most obvious way to build around offensive-minded stars is to sign defensive-minded role players. But what we see right now, is that we are trying to add even more ballhandlers, above-average passers into the rotation.

5'11 185 JMac PG (ballhandler/passer)
6'4 195 DLo PG/SG (elite ballhandler/passer)
6'4 190 Beasley SG
6'4 200 Nowell SG
6'4 210 Evans SG
6'4 215 Okogie SF/SF (good potential as short roll passer)

6'6 195 Culver SG/SF/PG (ballhandler/passer)
6'6 230 Kelan Martin SF/PF
6'9 210 Jake Layman SF/PF
6'9 215 Juancho PF/SF

6'9 215 Vanderbilt PF/C (potential to be solid ballhandler/passer)
6'7 240 JJ PF/C (ballhandler/passer)
6'9 265 Reid С (already a solid passer, potential to be elite passer)
6'11 250 KAT C (already a solid passer, potential to be elite passer)

I am particularly surprised that all our big men have a passing game in their arsenal. Just watch that pass from Reid:

Read on Twitter

This excites me the most. Not that we will shoot more threes than before (which is important), not that we will attack opponents in transition more than before (which is also important), not that we will prioritize threes and shots at the rim (which is very important). It gives me hope that we are building around a high-level passing game as a team. For sure, we need athletic wings, who can cut to the rim and finish, we need versatile defenders, we need more shooters. The foundation of KAT+DLo shooting and passing is there.

[minimus]

Just re-watched some old MIN games. I almost forgot how we tried to add creativity, dynamic to our static offense by using weird two PG lineups. For instance, Rose+Teague, Tyus+Teague etc. Mostly two bad 3pt shooters. Lack of ballhandlers and passers has been an issue for MIN for years. I hope next season will be different.

[minimus]

Watch on YouTube

I've posted this video before, this time I want to particularly address ongoing questions about Ryan and HC position.

Many MIN fans understand that the roster we had a year before had three serious issues:

* - shooting
* - passing, ballhandling
* - defense

The difference between Rosas and Thibs vision is not on micromanagement level. In a nutshell, it is difference between strategy and tactics.

From wiki:

A tactic is a conceptual action or short series of actions with the aim of achieving of a short-term goal.

A strategy is a set of guidelines used to achieve an overall objective, whereas tactics are the specific actions aimed at adhering to those guidelines.

Thibs lost the war in MIN, because his strategy did not align with tactic. For instance, we had first palyoff appearance but we failed to build a momentum to improve as team further. We made a win-now Butler trade, but we failed to keep him etc. As I said, Thibs won some battles, but he lost the war.

Now back to video above. The author of this video analyzes MIN pre deadline stats. He gives plenty of facts that our offense under Ryan coaching generated plenty quality shot opportunities, the problem was not execution on coaching level. The problem was technical execution on players level and some in-game coaching. Our FO recognised issues after giving short run to KAT-RoCo-Wiggins core, and brought here DLo, Beasley, Juancho, JJ, Vanderblit, Evans, Spellman and #17 pick.

After trade deadline our new assembled roster without any preparation and chemistry, without KAT, showed promising improvement in terms of shooting, passing and ballhandling. Ryan "plugged" new players in the same offense and they showed whether they fit. One big confirmation of alignment between strategy and tactic in our case is how new players who brought here FO, played under our coaching staff.

* - DLo is an excellent fit
* - JJ is an excellent fit
* - Beasley is an excellent fit
* - Juancho is an excellent fit
* - Vanderbilt is an excellent fit

Spoiler:

Now lets compare with players who our previous FO brought here and how they played under HC.

* - Hill did not play
* - Aldrich did not play
* - Teague awful fit, backup PG who is paid as starter
* - Dieng is paid starter money, but could not play starter
* - Gibson was a bad fit
* - Wiggins regressed
* - JC was a bad fit, ISO scorer
* - Rose was a bad fit, ISO scorer
* - Butler a good fit as skillset, awful fit in locker room

It is funny because it might seem that our FO and HC under Thibs were two different persons with completely opposite vision.

Back to our current HC. The only point where both pre trade deadline and post trade deadline team offense meet is our coaching staff. And Ryan is a central piece of it. Just list a few of critical connections/endpoints

* - our FO (Rosas/Gupta/Pascucci) <===> Ryan
* - Iowa Wolves (Sam Newman-Beck) <===> Ryan
* - assistant coaches (Prigioni/Gates) <===> Ryan
* - associate head coach (Vanterpool) <===> Ryan
* - player development coaches <===> Ryan

Our FO has been making an excellent job identifying, architecting team strategy(long term view, roster provisioning etc), but it means nothing if there is no communication within all underlying levels. MIN 2019-20 season showed that our FO/coaching staff and players are connected on all levels. They have a lot of work to do, they for sure must find better tactical solutions.

To sum up: I think that Ryan has been doing a good job as HC, for many reasons stated above and in video. Anyone who works in complex, large, distributed team understand that in such cases communication is critical to team success. Anyone who manages a group of talented, young, ambitious persons understands who difficult is to lead, communicate. I have been working in IT for almost 20 years. Once I was offered a project coordinator role in a world biggest sport wear/shoes company. My responsibilities would have been managing three relatively small teams: product owners in Germany, IT developers in Belorussia, IT support in India. I declined that offer because I quickly understood that there was no connection between these three distributed teams, project was in constant decline and long history of failures, I would be in a very risky situation with all factors against me. I can only imagine a worse situation to begin HC career than our situation a year ago. Thats why I support, appreciate our work that our FO and HC have done to make this team better. I hope we will win this war one day.

[Dewey]

We need some defensive toughness and we need to continue to add skill players… In my opinion the best case scenario would be to trade down to get Deni Avdija and pick up a player that can help us defensively in the process

[KGdaBom]

We need some defensive toughness and we need to continue to add skill players… In my opinion the best case scenario would be to trade down to get Deni Avdija and pick up a player that can help us defensively in the process

Where do you trade down to to get Deni considering there is a good chance he goes 2nd overall?

[Nick K]

Im really curious about minutes distribution if we draft Ball. J really want him here.

I think it would be pretty seamless. On the average, the backcourt (PG/SG) turns into primarily a three-man rotation of Russell, Beasley and Ball with McLaughlin being the fourth. This has always been my vision for the draft and upcoming roster construction. Unfortunately for some, McLaughlin would be kind of left out as would Nowell, but I'm willing to do it for that kind of talent upgrade.

Okogie and Culver split time at SF.

At PF, with the current roster construction it would probably be Hernangomez and Johnson. Vanderbilt may feel left out, but I could easily envision a midseason trade to open up time for him, like happened for Reid this past season.

Towns and Reid get most of the C minutes.

Obviously, rotations are game and matchup-dependent. Certain matchups or situations could cause the minutes to fluctuate or the rotation to grow or shrink. But that's how I would envision it going on most nights.

I don't see Hernangomez or Johnson being back next year. Juancho doesn't do much for me. He needs to be a much stronger rebounder. Right now it seems like he just gets the easy rebs. I really like Johnson but he has a 16 mil player option contract thru next season. He's likely to be moved in a deal.

I'm thinking Vanderbilt plays a big part of our PF position with Jake Layman who is really a 3/4. We may draft a PF at #17....

They'd be foolish to not bring back McLaughlin and Nowell s/b deep bench. Just my 10 cents worth.

[Nick K]

Right now IMO Juancho is the starting PF we "need".

Right now he is not even with the team. Just like Spellman. Coincidence?

Yes. The coincidence is he signed on for a movie when we didn't have this mini bubble scheduled. He is an RFA, but still a Timberwolve's player until he signs elsewhere and we decline to match. He's the best PF on the team currently.

That says volumes about how weak we are at PF. Juan is a backup PF. I don't get the love.

[Nick K]

Watch on YouTube

I've posted this video before, this time I want to particularly address ongoing questions about Ryan and HC position.

Many MIN fans understand that the roster we had a year before had three serious issues:

* - shooting
* - passing, ballhandling
* - defense

The difference between Rosas and Thibs vision is not on micromanagement level. In a nutshell, it is difference between strategy and tactics.

From wiki:

A tactic is a conceptual action or short series of actions with the aim of achieving of a short-term goal.

A strategy is a set of guidelines used to achieve an overall objective, whereas tactics are the specific actions aimed at adhering to those guidelines.

Thibs lost the war in MIN, because his strategy did not align with tactic. For instance, we had first palyoff appearance but we failed to build a momentum to improve as team further. We made a win-now Butler trade, but we failed to keep him etc. As I said, Thibs won some battles, but he lost the war.

Now back to video above. The author of this video analyzes MIN pre deadline stats. He gives plenty of facts that our offense under Ryan coaching generated plenty quality shot opportunities, the problem was not execution on coaching level. The problem was technical execution on players level and some in-game coaching. Our FO recognised issues after giving short run to KAT-RoCo-Wiggins core, and brought here DLo, Beasley, Juancho, JJ, Vanderblit, Evans, Spellman and #17 pick.

After trade deadline our new assembled roster without any preparation and chemistry, without KAT, showed promising improvement in terms of shooting, passing and ballhandling. Ryan "plugged" new players in the same offense and they showed whether they fit. One big confirmation of alignment between strategy and tactic in our case is how new players who brought here FO, played under our coaching staff.

* - DLo is an excellent fit
* - JJ is an excellent fit
* - Beasley is an excellent fit
* - Juancho is an excellent fit
* - Vanderbilt is an excellent fit

Spoiler:

Now lets compare with players who our previous FO brought here and how they played under HC.

* - Hill did not play
* - Aldrich did not play
* - Teague awful fit, backup PG who is paid as starter
* - Dieng is paid starter money, but could not play starter
* - Gibson was a bad fit
* - Wiggins regressed
* - JC was a bad fit, ISO scorer
* - Rose was a bad fit, ISO scorer
* - Butler a good fit as skillset, awful fit in locker room

It is funny because that our FO and HC under Thibs were two different persons with completely opposite vision.

Back to our current HC. The only point where both pre trade deadline and post trade deadline team offense meet is our coaching staff. And Ryan is a central piece of it. Just list a few of critical connections/endpoints

* - our FO (Rosas/Gupta/Pascucci) <===> Ryan
* - Iowa Wolves (Sam Newman-Beck) <===> Ryan
* - assistant coaches (Prigioni/Gates) <===> Ryan
* - associate head coach (Vanterpool) <===> Ryan
* - player development coaches <===> Ryan

Our FO has been making an excellent job identifying, architecting team strategy(long term view, roster provisioning etc), but it means nothing if there is no communication within all underlying levels. MIN 2019-20 season showed that our FO/coaching staff and players are connected on all levels. They have a lot of work to do, they for sure must find better tactical solutions.

To sum up: I think that Ryan has been doing a good job as HC, for many reasons stated above and in video. Anyone who works in complex, large, distributed team understand that in such cases communication is critical to team success. Anyone who manages a group of talented, young, ambitious persons understands who difficult is to lead, communicate. I have been working in IT for almost 20 years. Once I was offered a project coordinator role in a world biggest sport wear/shoes company. My responsibilities would have been managing three relatively small teams: product owners in Germany, IT developers in Belorussia, IT support in India. I declined that offer because I quickly understood that there was no connection between these three distributed teams, project was in constant decline and long history of failures, I would be in a very risky situation with all factors against me. I can only imagine a worse situation to begin HC career than our situation a year ago. Thats why I support, appreciate our work that our FO and HC have done to make this team better. I hope we will win this war one day.

Good stuff. Really smart comments overall. I like the job Ryan is doing all things considered. He's s good fit right now for us. We're not done moving players either. Rosas will chip away and mold us into a real team. I have high hopes.

[minimus]

"I would never want my son to play for Boston after what they done to Isaiah Thomas," Davis Sr. said "No loyalty. Guy gives his heart and soul and they traded him."

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/kobe-bryant-took-anthony-davis-under-his-wing-at-2012-olympics-wherever-kobe-went-anthony-went/

That why connection with players is important. Remember when Covington was shown in Target Center with Rosas after HOU trade.

P.S. I think that IT4 trade was a right move for Ainge, but maybe Ainge could find a better way to communicate with Thomas.

[KGdaBom]

Right now he is not even with the team. Just like Spellman. Coincidence?

Yes. The coincidence is he signed on for a movie when we didn't have this mini bubble scheduled. He is an RFA, but still a Timberwolve's player until he signs elsewhere and we decline to match. He's the best PF on the team currently.

That says volumes about how weak we are at PF. Juan is a backup PF. I don't get the love.

Not love. Like. He shoots 3s well and is a solid rebounder. I agree he is slightly below average for a starter, but teams need quality backups and I think that is where Juancho fits in.

[Dewey]

We need some defensive toughness and we need to continue to add skill players… In my opinion the best case scenario would be to trade down to get Deni Avdija and pick up a player that can help us defensively in the process

Where do you trade down to to get Deni considering there is a good chance he goes 2nd overall?

Rumors aside, trading down from 1 to 2-5 naturally depends on the asset. If the value ain’t there it ain’t their. All I’m after is the fact we we know teams with skills & length/size have an advantage and we clearly have a need to try and double-dip.

Guys like Layman and Hernangomez add depth as solid role players, but a prospect like Deni (or whoever) is simply more skilled as a starter. We need to take these steps to improve our roster.

PF is a glaring need and that can move the conversation to Okungwu (and even Toppin). Both are pretty well rounded in their own way and better facilitators than Wiseman.

I’m still struggling on Edwards at #1, but honestly, I’m not sure what it is that leaves me with some uncertainty. Young and physically able to finish well and I can imagine him in our motion offense thriving along-side DLo ... “if” he can hold up Strong defensively. He’s physically capable at SG, but is he willing and able to exert himself night in night out?...

Lots of paths to take within the draft. Trading out of the draft is a whole nother topic... I haven’t babbled in a long-time, these are some views I’m challenged with

[Jedzz]

Lots of paths to take within the draft. Trading out of the draft is a whole nother topic...

Not a bad topic at all. Does trading all the picks combined for a better established player fit in the Trading Out category, or is trading out just considered trading for future assets? I think Philly is going to ask for more value for say Simmons than a single pick and filler bodies as appears has been discussed here lately. Simmons might be one of those players Dlo/Towns would be seeking instead of new rookies. Booker of course the other. What Dlo/Towns want around them or who might get along with them might need to be in the equation. If they are actually constructing something real that is.

Plus, the trade out topic might save some from hours of google translating their own thoughts into dizzying phantasmagoric scenarios if the team can get down to 1 or zero picks, and the roster isn't forced to flip entirely for 3 new picks either.

[Dewey]

Lots of paths to take within the draft. Trading out of the draft is a whole nother topic...

Not a bad topic at all. Does trading all the picks combined for a better established player fit in the Trading Out category, or is trading out just considered trading for future assets? I think Philly is going to ask for more value for say Simmons than a single pick and filler bodies as appears has been discussed here lately. Simmons might be one of those players Dlo/Towns would be seeking instead of new rookies. Booker of course the other. What Dlo/Towns want around them or who might get along with them might need to be in the equation. If they are actually constructing something real that is.

Plus, the trade out topic might save some from hours of google translating their own thoughts into dizzying phantasmagoric scenarios if the team can get down to 1 or zero picks, and the roster isn't forced to flip entirely for 3 new picks either.

Simply put... I believe all the signs are there that we will exhaust all efforts to pick up a 3rd piece to go along with DLo and KAT.

Option 1: move out of the draft for a core player (ex: Beal, Simmons, Booker)...
Option2: trade down to pick up asset (player and/or future pick, etc)
Option 3: select #1 &#17 and done

Pulling off option #1 is maybe 50/50 at best but I do believe the front office thinks they can get the right pieces to fit around them. Good or bad, Beasley could be (or could have been) the key piece to make this option 1 happen...

[KGdaBom]

Lots of paths to take within the draft. Trading out of the draft is a whole nother topic...

Not a bad topic at all. Does trading all the picks combined for a better established player fit in the Trading Out category, or is trading out just considered trading for future assets? I think Philly is going to ask for more value for say Simmons than a single pick and filler bodies as appears has been discussed here lately. Simmons might be one of those players Dlo/Towns would be seeking instead of new rookies. Booker of course the other. What Dlo/Towns want around them or who might get along with them might need to be in the equation. If they are actually constructing something real that is.

Plus, the trade out topic might save some from hours of google translating their own thoughts into dizzying phantasmagoric scenarios if the team can get down to 1 or zero picks, and the roster isn't forced to flip entirely for 3 new picks either.

Simply put... I believe all the signs are there that we will exhaust all efforts to pick up a 3rd piece to go along with DLo and KAT.

Option 1: move out of the draft for a core player (ex: Beal, Simmons, Booker)...
Option2: trade down to pick up asset (player and/or future pick, etc)
Option 3: select #1 &#17 and done

Pulling off option #1 is maybe 50/50 at best but I do believe the front office thinks they can get the right pieces to fit around them.

Booker just sold his house. He must be coming to Minnesota.