OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[Dresden]

ya, read that, but anybody that eats out more than once is likely doing a ton of things that would make others nervous. I've eaten out, also taken a dozen flights, gone to walmart, target, grocery store, the dentist, the doctor, work, I've shaken hands and been to a birthday party, my spouse has done the same thing along with some other random stuff. Honestly the only thing I haven't done is gone to a pool party or a protest.

If I tested positive today how the hell are they going to figure out what caused it?

I think the way the study worked was that they counted all the various risky things people did, then counted them up. The thing that was the most common among people who tested positive was that they had eaten out someplace. Now, that could be because people do that more often than, say, taking air flights or going to the dentist. But it could also mean that that is a good way to get infected.

Or, it could just mean that people who are eating out are the ones who are more willing to participate in riskier behavior than people who have not, or will not, eat out during this time.

OTOH, I think it's interesting that we see a spike in areas where Trump has held his "super-spreader" indoor (or even outdoor) campaign rallies. I think in a case like that, such as Tulsa, it is fair to assume that many people are getting infected at these events and then spreading the virus in their own communities.

Not according to Trump in the debate last night- he claimed they haven't had any problems at all at any of his events. I guess he forgot about Herm Cain. Apparently Trump's family did not wear masks while seated at the debate last night, even though the hosts- the CLE Clinic and Case Western U, encouraged people to do so, and at one point went around asking if those who weren't masked up would like a mask.

[johnnyvann840]

I think the way the study worked was that they counted all the various risky things people did, then counted them up. The thing that was the most common among people who tested positive was that they had eaten out someplace. Now, that could be because people do that more often than, say, taking air flights or going to the dentist. But it could also mean that that is a good way to get infected.

Or, it could just mean that people who are eating out are the ones who are more willing to participate in riskier behavior than people who have not, or will not, eat out during this time.

OTOH, I think it's interesting that we see a spike in areas where Trump has held his "super-spreader" indoor (or even outdoor) campaign rallies. I think in a case like that, such as Tulsa, it is fair to assume that many people are getting infected at these events and then spreading the virus in their own communities.

Not according to Trump in the debate last night- he claimed they haven't had any problems at all at any of his events. I guess he forgot about Herm Cain. Apparently Trump's family did not wear masks while seated at the debate last night, even though the hosts- the CLE Clinic and Case Western U, encouraged people to do so, and at one point went around asking if those who weren't masked up would like a mask.

lol.. yeah, well.. anything that begins with "according to Trump... " I wouldn't take very seriously.

[dice]

It's not so bad, we've had them open for some time. Never was much of a dinner out person even before so it didn't impact me that much, but it's been good to be able to get back to my favorite chicago dog restaurant for a fresh & hot (vs semi soggy) meal that's bad for me.

I don't know, there was a research article that came out recently that pointed to indoor dining as one of the riskiest things you can do right now. I think they studied people who had come down with covid, asked them what they had been doing recently, and the most common thing was eating out somewhere. More so than other activities (I can't remember what all was on the list).

If you think about, you have a lot of people, indoors, not wearing masks, for an hour, hour and a half, often talking loudly to be heard, it goes against most of what you don't want to be doing.

ya, read that, but anybody that eats out more than once is likely doing a ton of things that would make others nervous. I've eaten out, also taken a dozen flights, gone to walmart, target, grocery store, the dentist, the doctor, work, I've shaken hands and been to a birthday party, my spouse has done the same thing along with some other random stuff. Honestly the only thing I haven't done is gone to a pool party or a protest.

If I tested positive today how the hell are they going to figure out what caused it?

none of those things other than shaking hands are necessarily high risk behavior unless you're around people who aren't wearing masks. eating indoors inherently involves a lot of people with their masks off

and contact tracing works for those who engage in limited risky behavior

[dice]

San Francisco is opening indoor dining now- a mistake I think, given the evidence of how dangerous that particular activity is.

It's not so bad, we've had them open for some time

where, florida? if anything, that's evidence that it IS so bad

[Ccwatercraft]

I don't know, there was a research article that came out recently that pointed to indoor dining as one of the riskiest things you can do right now. I think they studied people who had come down with covid, asked them what they had been doing recently, and the most common thing was eating out somewhere. More so than other activities (I can't remember what all was on the list).

If you think about, you have a lot of people, indoors, not wearing masks, for an hour, hour and a half, often talking loudly to be heard, it goes against most of what you don't want to be doing.

ya, read that, but anybody that eats out more than once is likely doing a ton of things that would make others nervous. I've eaten out, also taken a dozen flights, gone to walmart, target, grocery store, the dentist, the doctor, work, I've shaken hands and been to a birthday party, my spouse has done the same thing along with some other random stuff. Honestly the only thing I haven't done is gone to a pool party or a protest.

If I tested positive today how the hell are they going to figure out what caused it?

I think the way the study worked was that they counted all the various risky things people did, then counted them up. The thing that was the most common among people who tested positive was that they had eaten out someplace. Now, that could be because people do that more often than, say, taking air flights or going to the dentist. But it could also mean that that is a good way to get infected.

Sure, hard to argue against, but every activity has some level of risk. Personally I worry significantly more about work related exposure via family members than the risks associated with the occasional hot sandwich.

[dougthonus]

I just looked up an article that was reporting that Florida had less than 3000 new cases for the sixth consecutive day and it was written like that should be celebrated?

What the actual f***?

at least it's a warm weather state...

i would not be the least bit surprised if this is a swing state political marketing scheme pushed by the trump team in advance of the election...at the expense of the collective health of floridians

"florida beats COVID! MAGA!"

It’s pretty obvious that’s exactly what it is.

Well its only a marketing scheme that works if they don't have disastrous consequences. If they trend up to 20k new cases a day due to carelessness and then have to shut down, then it back fires.

If they remain open and everything is fine and there isn't a surge, then its hard to argue against remaining open.

In the end, the best thing you could do politically in September would be to do whatever works. If you open and it backfires that doesn't help you.

[dougthonus]

I think the way the study worked was that they counted all the various risky things people did, then counted them up. The thing that was the most common among people who tested positive was that they had eaten out someplace. Now, that could be because people do that more often than, say, taking air flights or going to the dentist. But it could also mean that that is a good way to get infected.

I'd agree eating out is probably rough, depending on the circumstances in particular, but I'd be interested to see this study and what things they compared against. Eating out was probably a daily occurrence for a lot of people. Even things like parties / gatherings are probably simply happening at 1/10th the rate. I'm not sure its inherently more dangerous than other activities on a 1:1 basis, but its frequency is so high that it becomes much riskier.

[coldfish]

I posted this on another board. Thought people here may be interested.

Big takeaways:
- True infection fatality rate is 0.3%
- 1/3 of people are asymptomatic
- Spike protein antibodies stick around for a while. Nucleocapsid protein antibodies disappear quickly. Since many antibody tests in the US are type N, the number of false negatives are very high.

Hadn't seen this posted.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-antibodies-do-not-fade-quickly-new-study-finds-2020-09-01

TLDR:
- Iceland did a big antibody study on 30,000 people.
- Found that 1/3 of positive had no symptoms
- True infection fatality rate was 0.3% and is consistent with other studies
- Antibodies do not disappear in the short term. People tested positive for months.

Side comment: No idea what antibody they are testing for. Other articles I have read indicate that (N) type antibody tests fade quickly whereas the RBD and S tests are more durable over time.

Edit add, found the write up:

We measured SARS-CoV-2–specific antibodies in up to 30,576 persons with six established assays, targeting pan-immunoglobulin (pan-Ig: IgM, IgG, and IgA) antibodies against the nucleoprotein (N) (Roche); pan-Ig antibodies against the receptor binding domain (RBD) in the S1 subunit of the spike protein (pan-Ig anti–S1-RBD) (Wantai); IgM and IgG antibodies against N (IgM anti-N and IgG anti-N) (EDI/Eagle); and IgG and IgA against the S1 subunit of the spike protein (IgG anti-S1 and IgA anti-S1) (Euroimmun). Thresholds for positivity were supplied by the assay manufacturers. We used the two pan-Ig antibody assays to evaluate seroprevalence, requiring positive results for both assays for a test result to be considered positive (Fig. S1 in Supplementary Appendix 1). To quantify antibody levels among qPCR-positive persons, we assayed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using IgG anti-N, IgM anti-N, IgG anti-S1, and IgA anti-S1.

and I love the internet

IgG anti-N, IgM anti-N, IgG anti-S1, and IgA anti-S1 antibody levels were correlated among the qPCR-positive persons (Figs. S5 and S6 and Table S5). Antibody levels measured with both pan-Ig antibody assays increased over the first 2 months after qPCR diagnosis and remained at a plateau over the next 2 months of the study. IgM anti-N antibody levels increased rapidly soon after diagnosis and then fell rapidly and were generally not detected after 2 months. IgA anti-S1 antibodies decreased 1 month after diagnosis and remained detectable thereafter. IgG anti-N and anti-S1 antibody levels increased during the first 6 weeks after diagnosis and then decreased slightly.

Let's be honest. I'm an idiot. The fact that I'm aware that (N) antibody tests are useless off the top of my head means that someone like Fauci should know it and that the CDC should be recommending against it. Most of the antibody tests in the US are anti-N and as a result, generate mostly false negatives.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116

And yes, the I realize that the New England Journal of Medicine is a far right wing media source and all but can we please get the 0.3% thing in the public eye?

[Ccwatercraft]

at least it's a warm weather state...

i would not be the least bit surprised if this is a swing state political marketing scheme pushed by the trump team in advance of the election...at the expense of the collective health of floridians

"florida beats COVID! MAGA!"

It’s pretty obvious that’s exactly what it is.

Well its only a marketing scheme that works if they don't have disastrous consequences. If they trend up to 20k new cases a day due to carelessness and then have to shut down, then it back fires.

If they remain open and everything is fine and there isn't a surge, then its hard to argue against remaining open.

In the end, the best thing you could do politically in September would be to do whatever works. If you open and it backfires that doesn't help you.

as a long time Floridian I'm in full support of the changes (phase III) and the vast majority of the people I know agree with me on this, mask compliance is extremely high, to the point where someone without a mask really sticks out. Honestly the different phases don't really change where the crowds are hanging out, Walmart, Publix, Home Depot, Lowes, Target have all been consistently very busy since the beginning of this, most of the "bars" had a food license anyway and have been open for months. I'm not much of a bar/club person anyway so personally I'm not going to worry about what others are doing, I just go about my life with standard safety practices as I have been.

If things go south as far as case count/hosp/deaths, then the Gov will revisit it, but generally speaking we've all adjusted down here and accepted it, only a very small % are still hunkered down like they were 5 months ago.

[MrSparkle]

In the end, boy would it have been cool if humans could help themselves and strictly quarantine for 1 month instead of having a laugh and skepticism of the seriousness since March.

Theme of the year? Lack of discipline. Sometimes I feel like USA should enforce a mandatory 1y of military service and basic training for all 18yo.

These buffoons who wanted to flaunt their guns and protest masks and temporary shutdowns, maybe they can try a round in the military and test their freedom and free will to do whatever they want every day. You can’t, because the first thing you learn is that your spoiled interests are second to the entire population’s.

I said on day 1 of shutdown, that I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the fatality rate is closer to 0.1%. Italy and NYC were Totally blind-sided and unprepared, as well as dense areas.

Doesn’t matter; a novel virus opens a can of unpredictable worms. And even 0.1, 0.3%, whatever it is - that is a very high number of deaths for a very contagious virus. And not knowing future mutations, long-term consequences, these aren’t things you want to introduce into the entire gene pool in the country.

This 2020 corona debacle should go down in history as one of the most badly managed crisis in American history due to the GOP and Trump administration. You had expert advice all along the way but decided to test it, doubt it, not cooperate and put personal gains and populism ahead of pooling together the best scientists in the country and letting them do their best against a novel virus with 110% support from the government at every level.

This COULD have been an exponentially shorter problem. As it stands, it could be a 2-3 year ‘viral war,’ if not longer to be honest. My sentiment is it’s just gonna become a normal part of life. I don’t have faith in the vaccine as a full-proof - I have more faith in treatments becoming better. The flu vaccine is seasonal and constantly mutating. Some years it works, others it doesn’t. Expecting COVID to be eliminated on some convenient 6-12 month timeline is against any historical trend. The best case scenario IMO is it mutates gradually to be very mild or less contagious, with the help of the vaccine, and the most dangerous strains go away.

[dice]

at least it's a warm weather state...

i would not be the least bit surprised if this is a swing state political marketing scheme pushed by the trump team in advance of the election...at the expense of the collective health of floridians

"florida beats COVID! MAGA!"

It’s pretty obvious that’s exactly what it is.

Well its only a marketing scheme that works if they don't have disastrous consequences. If they trend up to 20k new cases a day due to carelessness and then have to shut down, then it back fires.

If they remain open and everything is fine and there isn't a surge, then its hard to argue against remaining open.

In the end, the best thing you could do politically in September would be to do whatever works. If you open and it backfires that doesn't help you.

if it is indeed a marketing scheme, i think it's timed to not backfire to any significant degree until the election is over. early voting has already started, there's a latency period and community spread has to ramp up

[Dez]

7 new cases in Victoria today and our rolling 14 day average is 12.6.

I'm getting so close to getting outside for something other than work.

[dice]

white house overrules CDC, will allow cruise ships to set sail on nov. 1 (hello, florida!):

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/health/covid-cruise-ships.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20201001&instance_id=22691&nl=the-morning&regi_id=94658923&section_index=2&section_name=the_latest_news&segment_id=39520&te=1&user_id=7ea4e9d4dbdb5ec9d68d451510e3f47d

[MrSparkle]

white house overrules CDC, will allow cruise ships to set sail on nov. 1 (hello, florida!):

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/30/health/covid-cruise-ships.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20201001&instance_id=22691&nl=the-morning&regi_id=94658923&section_index=2&section_name=the_latest_news&segment_id=39520&te=1&user_id=7ea4e9d4dbdb5ec9d68d451510e3f47d

Good luck to all my friends working on cruises. Man, that was a particularly suppressive line of work 15 years ago. Wasn't for me. Couldn't wait to get home. Dealing with potential COVID outbreaks? Good grief. They gonna stock a few ventilators on-board? DeSantis and Trump should be sent out the country on a cruiseship, exiled to Easter Island with each other and a bunch of bags of Venezuelan currency.

[Pax for Prez]

Hope Hicks tests positive, Trump and the 1st Lady in quarantine.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-begins-quarantine-as-close-aide-hope-hicks-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB19CG4u?ocid=msedgntp

[johnnyvann840]

Trump has Covid-19. Both the President and the First Lady test positive 32 days before election.

Wow.

[Dresden]

Trump has Covid-19. Both the President and the First Lady test positive 32 days before election.

Wow.

Yeah, that is a bombshell. First of all, I hope they are all ok. Secondly, I hope this opens people's eyes up to how reckless and dangerous Trump's ideas on how to deal with the pandemic are for the country, and that we will pick a better leader in November.

[Dez]

I'm very curious as to how this develops because a lot of different stories can be told depending on how this unfolds.

- If he's one of the people that it doesn't affect very much?
- If he's like the majority that do have significant issues?
- If he ends up on a ventilator?

How he fares over the next few weeks could really change a lot of things in the US.

[ImSlower]

He will receive literally the absolute best health care someone can possibly receive. I expect him to show few symptoms and play it off. Johnson and Bolsonaro both had it, and their populist fanbases were undeterred.

I hope Biden did not contract it from him.

[coldfish]

He will receive literally the absolute best health care someone can possibly receive. I expect him to show few symptoms and play it off. Johnson and Bolsonaro both had it, and their populist fanbases were undeterred.

I hope Biden did not contract it from him.

Boris Johnson is younger and went into ICU at one point. He was in trouble for a while. The advantage Trump has is that he found out he has it really early on and can start resting and taking care of himself before the disease progresses.