2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[eminence]

Murray-Jokic PNR gave a lot of problems for Davis also, and would for anyone. Gobert defended against the PNR perfectly fine once Mike Conley came back, and he was a better defender against Jokic in man to man.

There is no pretending. Gobert's defensive impact is felt in nearly every series. The whole he can't guard the PNR has not true, at least no worse than any other legitimate big.

Wait jokic absolutely torched gobert lmao, way more than he did AD

I feel AD handled the murray and gobert pick and roll fine, i didnt watch the jazz series closely enough but jokic definately attacked gobert much more than he did AD

I feel like you don't pay attention to defensive match ups.

Anthony Davis barely guarded Nikola Jokic, and when he did - he could not guard him. Jokic pretty much had his way with Davis in the post (or maybe I am remembering Jokic highlights too well, regardless Davis barely affected Nikola that series). Jokic struggled against Dwight Howard, not Anthony Davis.

Anthony Davis was hidden on Grant.

I mean your sentence is so wildly off and you say "lmao" - but the next paragraph you just said you didn't watch the series closely?

I believe he was actually mainly on Millsap for the series.

[PaulieWal]

I view Davis and James as neck and neck in playoffs, but LeBron was much better in regular season. It's another POTY James season

I have read the arguments for AD being better than LeBron in the PS and specifically in the Finals but I am not seeing it. LeBron still seems to be the engine on the floor and his defense has been incredible.

That being said, AD still has easily been the 2nd best player in the PS, or maybe even 1b to LeBron's 1a - although it's difficult to parse out how much of his offensive impact is reliant on LeBron and Rondo feeding him the ball in the right spots (a limitation which is an issue for most bigs bTW).

Lebron is the engine of the offense indeed, so what? Since when do you expect the center of the team to be the offensive engine?

AD is the best defensive player in the league, he's the "engine" on that end in the sense that he's the one who allows the Lakers to do everything they do on defense. Even something like having Howard on the floor to rough up Jokic is only possible because AD is on the floor. .

Yes, on offense Lebron is the "engine" and the better player but there's two ends of the floors and the Lakers are actually stronger on defense than on offense.

The "two ends on he floor" is such a meaningless thing to say when LeBron's defense has been outstanding too. He was arguably better than David in the Houston series defensively. Last series he was switching on to Murray in crunch time, it's not like LeBron getting hidden on defense. And I don't agree that AD is the best defensive player in the league. He's one of the top guys but not the best for me.

[70sFan]

Wait jokic absolutely torched gobert lmao, way more than he did AD

I feel AD handled the murray and gobert pick and roll fine, i didnt watch the jazz series closely enough but jokic definately attacked gobert much more than he did AD

No he didn't, he was forced to take contested shots and felt uncomfortable inside. Just watch game 7 - one of Jokic's finest performances this year - and look how well Gobert defended him.

The truth is that Davis didn't guard Jokic for 90% of the series, while Gobert had to play him straight all series long. Huge difference in roles.

Great point. Question for you though:

Does it bother you that Denver completely torched Gobert's Jazz in a way they didn't against their other playoff opponents?

I understand it's a team game and Murray going nut was central to all of this, but still it's hard for me to look at that series and think "Wow, Gobert was really effective on defense."

I can say for my personal thoughts about this series because I watched it closely - Utah had poor perimeter players. Mitchell is just bad defender, Clarkson is worse than him and Ingles wasn't himself in that series. The amount of open shots Nuggets got was immense and it wasn't because of Gobert's shortcomings. A lot of that was also caused by how unbelieveably well both teams shot in that series, it was a huge outlier.

To me, Gobert's impact was visible even when Nuggets made tough shots. Nuggets were not comfortable with scoring inside when Gobert was on the floor, it was visible to me. All of these while defending Jokic - he didn't have anyone like Howard to make him less burdened.

By the way, Davis has much better defensive cast around him than Gobert.

[Peregrine01]

Amid all the talk about Davis's defense, we miss that the Lakers has a very strong all-around defensive squad. They have him, Dwight and Bron in the front court - all three of which are/were DPOY contenders plus Markieff Morris. And on the perimeter, they have solid plus defenders in KCP, Rondo, Green and Caruso. They're an extremely well-balanced defensive team plus they have a highly defense-oriented head coach in Vogel. IMO, they've been the strongest defense this playoffs when you consider the level of offenses that they've played.

[Dupp]

Re Lebron vs AD: Sure you can call lebron the leader and the engine. But at the same time ADs the engine of the Defense and has a very good argument as the better scorer this post season. Honestly it’s super close.

[Joey Wheeler]

I have read the arguments for AD being better than LeBron in the PS and specifically in the Finals but I am not seeing it. LeBron still seems to be the engine on the floor and his defense has been incredible.

That being said, AD still has easily been the 2nd best player in the PS, or maybe even 1b to LeBron's 1a - although it's difficult to parse out how much of his offensive impact is reliant on LeBron and Rondo feeding him the ball in the right spots (a limitation which is an issue for most bigs bTW).

Lebron is the engine of the offense indeed, so what? Since when do you expect the center of the team to be the offensive engine?

AD is the best defensive player in the league, he's the "engine" on that end in the sense that he's the one who allows the Lakers to do everything they do on defense. Even something like having Howard on the floor to rough up Jokic is only possible because AD is on the floor. .

Yes, on offense Lebron is the "engine" and the better player but there's two ends of the floors and the Lakers are actually stronger on defense than on offense.

The "two ends on he floor" is such a meaningless thing to say when LeBron's defense has been outstanding too. He was arguably better than David in the Houston series defensively. Last series he was switching on to Murray in crunch time, it's not like LeBron getting hidden on defense. And I don't agree that AD is the best defensive player in the league. He's one of the top guys but not the best for me.

Come again? Arguing Lebron is better overall is one thing, arguing he's even close on defense is just crazy. It's like saying maybe Davis is arguably better on offense because his points and TS% look better or something like that.

Lebron is great defensively for a wing, but to compare with an historic defensive big man like Davis... if you hold that position it's no surprise you see Lebron as a clear #1, but seriously?

In the Houston series alone, Davis was the only guy the Lakers were comfortable with switching on Harden without sending help.

[PaulieWal]

Lebron is the engine of the offense indeed, so what? Since when do you expect the center of the team to be the offensive engine?

AD is the best defensive player in the league, he's the "engine" on that end in the sense that he's the one who allows the Lakers to do everything they do on defense. Even something like having Howard on the floor to rough up Jokic is only possible because AD is on the floor. .

Yes, on offense Lebron is the "engine" and the better player but there's two ends of the floors and the Lakers are actually stronger on defense than on offense.

The "two ends on he floor" is such a meaningless thing to say when LeBron's defense has been outstanding too. He was arguably better than David in the Houston series defensively. Last series he was switching on to Murray in crunch time, it's not like LeBron getting hidden on defense. And I don't agree that AD is the best defensive player in the league. He's one of the top guys but not the best for me.

Come again? Arguing Lebron is better overall is one thing, arguing he's even close on defense is just crazy. It's like saying maybe Davis is arguably better on offense because his points and TS% look better or something like that.

Lebron is great defensively for a wing, but to compare with an historic defensive big man like Davis... if you hold that position it's no surprise you see Lebron as a clear #1, but seriously?

In the Houston series alone, Davis was the only guy the Lakers were comfortable with switching on Harden without sending help.

Was LeBron getting help when he was switched on to Harden?

Either way, you are way higher than i am on Davis and I don't think we'll agree on how wide the chasm is defensively, and if you think arguing LeBron being close to defensively is crazy, then arguing AD's impact being close to LeBron offensively is the same thing. LeBron has been nuts as a playmaker this PS minus maybe the last two games.

[Peregrine01]

I've been extremely impressed with Bron's defense in the playoffs especially since I thought he lost a step. He has really pushed things to another gear and rarely takes plays off. Down the stretch of games when the Lakers switch between AD and Bron, the offense has trouble even getting off a half decent look. He can't do it for a full season anymore but during the playoffs he's almost as good as during his Miami years.

[Joey Wheeler]

The "two ends on he floor" is such a meaningless thing to say when LeBron's defense has been outstanding too. He was arguably better than David in the Houston series defensively. Last series he was switching on to Murray in crunch time, it's not like LeBron getting hidden on defense. And I don't agree that AD is the best defensive player in the league. He's one of the top guys but not the best for me.

Come again? Arguing Lebron is better overall is one thing, arguing he's even close on defense is just crazy. It's like saying maybe Davis is arguably better on offense because his points and TS% look better or something like that.

Lebron is great defensively for a wing, but to compare with an historic defensive big man like Davis... if you hold that position it's no surprise you see Lebron as a clear #1, but seriously?

In the Houston series alone, Davis was the only guy the Lakers were comfortable with switching on Harden without sending help.

Was LeBron getting help when he was switched on to Harden?

Either way, you are way higher than i am on Davis and I don't think we'll agree on how wide the chasm is defensively, and if you think arguing LeBron being close to defensively is crazy, then arguing AD's impact being close to LeBron offensively is the same thing. LeBron has been nuts as a playmaker this PS minus maybe the last two games.

But I completely agree with this, Lebron is clearly the superior offensive player despite Davis's better scoring/efficiency numbers. But Davis is also clearly superior on defense... in both cases, offense and defense, it's historically great/GOAT level vs great for their position.

[70sFan]

I'd like to see Davis anchoring all-time great defense at least once before calling him GOAT-level defender. I mean, he has stacked defensive team around him and he can afford doing things someone like KG couldn't, despite abilities he had. How many teams had as good second bigman as Dwight? How many teams had as good rim protector and help defender at 3 as James? Lakers also had decent perimeter defenders as well.

I can't deny, his game 4 performance is an all-time great one. One game doesn't make him GOAT though. Do you think Duncan never had as good defensive performance?

[E-Balla]

I'd like to see Davis anchoring all-time great defense at least once before calling him GOAT-level defender. I mean, he has stacked defensive team around him and he can afford doing things someone like KG couldn't, despite abilities he had. How many teams had as good second bigman as Dwight? How many teams had as good rim protector and help defender at 3 as James? Lakers also had decent perimeter defenders as well.

I can't deny, his game 4 performance is an all-time great one. One game doesn't make him GOAT though. Do you think Duncan never had as good defensive performance?

I think it's less about how great he is and more about the unique type of greatness we're seeing.

EDIT: Elgee again responds as if he's been reading lol.

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[Joey Wheeler]

I'd like to see Davis anchoring all-time great defense at least once before calling him GOAT-level defender. I mean, he has stacked defensive team around him and he can afford doing things someone like KG couldn't, despite abilities he had. How many teams had as good second bigman as Dwight? How many teams had as good rim protector and help defender at 3 as James? Lakers also had decent perimeter defenders as well.

I can't deny, his game 4 performance is an all-time great one. One game doesn't make him GOAT though. Do you think Duncan never had as good defensive performance?

Dwight as in the guy who can only be on the floor in the playoffs because of Davis himself? Calling the Lakers stacked defensively is an enormous stretch.

Also as E-Balla said, it's the type of greatness we're watching. It's safe to say no player has ever covered as much ground so quickly on defense as Davis does, he's basically everywhere.

[O_6]

So I took a look at the RealGM POY Project year by year just to see how certain players were voted in the past. I saw that fpliii had a complete list of all the POY Shares through 2015. I wanted to see where things stood after the last 4 full seasons, so I went back and looked at the 2016-2019 RealGM POY shares of LeBron, Durant, Curry, Harden, Paul, Westbrook, Kawhi, Davis, and Giannis as well as double checking Kobe/Duncan/KG/Dirk/Wade to see how much things have changed in 4 years.

Again, shout out to fpliii who I'm just piggybacking off of and I don't want this to be considered "official" because I don't have a master spreadsheet of all the votes, but here's the All-Time list that I came up with after tallying up the 2016-19 POY shares for the previous players that I mentioned above. I broke it down in tiers to make it easier on the eyes.

Code: Select all

1   Bill Russell   10.956
2   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar   10.221
3   LeBron James   9.913
4   Michael Jordan   9.578

5   Wilt Chamberlain   7.818
6   Magic Johnson   7.114
7   Tim Duncan   6.248
8   Larry Bird   6.147
9   Shaquille O'Neal   5.910

10   Julius Erving   5.046
11   Karl Malone   4.649
12   Bob Pettit   4.466
13   Oscar Robertson   4.413
14   Kobe Bryant   4.380
15   Hakeem Olajuwon   4.380

16   Jerry West   3.795
17   Kevin Garnett   3.571
18   Moses Malone   3.478

19   Stephen Curry   2.957
20   Kevin Durant   2.945
21   Dwyane Wade   2.601
22   Chris Paul   2.557
23   David Robinson   2.431
24   Dirk Nowitzki   2.373

25   Elgin Baylor   2.223
26   Dolph Schayes   2.176
27   Walt Frazier   2.061
28   Charles Barkley   2.029
29   James Harden   1.926

30   George Gervin   1.582
31   Bob McAdoo   1.402
32   Bill Walton   1.373
33   Steve Nash   1.319

34   Kawhi Leonard   1.192
35   Rick Barry   1.187
36   Bob Cousy   1.115
37   Dwight Howard   1.104
38   Neil Johnston   1.095
39   Patrick Ewing   1.087
40   Paul Arizin   1.033

41   Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.860
42   Alonzo Mourning   0.843
43   Gary Payton   0.751
44   Russell Westbrook   0.729
45   Willis Reed   0.684
46   Artis Gilmore   0.681
47   John Havlicek   0.662
48   Dave Cowens   0.645
49   Sidney Moncrief   0.617
50   Tracy McGrady   0.613
51   Anthony Davis   0.612


Active Players
3. LeBron is pretty close to being the RealGM POY Project GOAT, he's probably not going to get it this year but there is a chance if he has two dominant rounds to lead LA to a title.
19. Curry and 20. Durant absolutely neck and neck at around the 20th spot all-time. Can they return from serious injuries in their 30s to make a run at the Top 15?
22. Chris Paul in the Top 25, with a chance at passing D-Wade after this year.
29. Harden pretty comfortably in the Top 30, looking likely to make the Top 25 soon.
34. Kawhi is in the Top 35, looking likely to make the Top 30 soon.
41. Giannis already a Top 45 player after last year, very likely to be Top 40 after this year.
44. Westbrook in the Top 45, but at this rate it seems doubtful that he ever moves up much from this spot
51. Davis is a virtual lock to make the Top 50 after this year, he even has a real chance to be in the Top 45 or even better


- LeBron is something else
- Durant is a little underrated based on the voting imo. I'm not even the biggest fan of him but I do think he deserved more votes in 2017-19 than he received, when he was clearly a Top 3 player in the sport. Curry is also another guy that probably should have more votes too. But I guess that's what happens when you join up and split votes.
- CP3 vs. Wade is one of the most interesting debates, pretty cool how they're neck and neck and will llkely end that way
- Harden is the guy who really took advantage of the Curry/Durant marriage in terms of POY shares, although obviously he would prefer the rings those two stopped him from winning. He still has work to do to catch CP3/Wade.
- Injuries, load management, limited role early in his career... yet Kawhi is still in an impressive spot on this list. What kind of longevity will he have?
- Giannis and Davis are the only active guys already on this list who are expected to get even better in the next couple of years, will be interesting to see where they stand on this list 3 years from now
- Hate him or Love him, Westbrook is a 1st ballot HOFer and I really hope he regains that pre-COVID rim attacking form to make another Top 5 run next year

Love that you did this O_6! Hey, I've been meaning to re-assemble a spreadsheet that was entirely up-to-date here. Is that what you did? Would you mind sharing on Google Sheets if so?

Regarding some of your specific observations:

- I'm actually surprised Davis is already as high as 51. He might be about to race up these charts over the next few years.

- what happens when you join up and split votes. Indeed, and I would note that they way this metric has a tendency to under-rank Curry/Durant relative to their stature means that you could say it underrates them in general. 2 additional points on that: 1) one of the reasons I like explicitly giving 5 HM spots in addition to my 5 ranked spots each year is that it's a place where #2 guys on teams tend to be able to be slot in more easily which makes the tendency toward discounting beta lesser, but that doesn't do much when you're talking about 2 Top 3 players, and 2) My GOAT lists are always done informed by the incrementalist approach of the RPOY project, but in the end I think a holistic career-long assessment will always provide the most meaningful career assessment.

- Harden took advantage. I'll say I even had him at #1 for 2018 and I stand by that still...despite the fact that always thought LeBron, Steph, and KD were better players.

- I'm about the most critical Westbrook guy around and would personally give him less POY shares than our project has, but I quite agree he's absolutely HOF worhty.

Hey, I must have missed your response earlier. No, this isn't based on a spreadsheet I created so I don't have anything worth sharing. As I mentioned, this was just based on fpliii's POY share list that was updated through 2015. I just happened to update the POY shares of LeBron, Durant, Curry, Harden, Paul, Westbrook, Kawhi, Davis, and Giannis as well as double checking Kobe/Duncan/KG/Dirk/Wade. I figured those were the main players who would really move up the list during that stretch.

If I have time after the season, I'll try to create an official spreadsheet including the 2020 vote.

[70sFan]

I'd like to see Davis anchoring all-time great defense at least once before calling him GOAT-level defender. I mean, he has stacked defensive team around him and he can afford doing things someone like KG couldn't, despite abilities he had. How many teams had as good second bigman as Dwight? How many teams had as good rim protector and help defender at 3 as James? Lakers also had decent perimeter defenders as well.

I can't deny, his game 4 performance is an all-time great one. One game doesn't make him GOAT though. Do you think Duncan never had as good defensive performance?

Dwight as in the guy who can only be on the floor in the playoffs because of Davis himself? Calling the Lakers stacked defensively is an enormous stretch.

Also as E-Balla said, it's the type of greatness we're watching. It's safe to say no player has ever covered as much ground so quickly on defense as Davis does, he's basically everywhere.

I don't have much to say if you think that Dwight can be on the floor only because of Davis. He was arguably the best defensive player in WCF...

[Joey Wheeler]

I'd like to see Davis anchoring all-time great defense at least once before calling him GOAT-level defender. I mean, he has stacked defensive team around him and he can afford doing things someone like KG couldn't, despite abilities he had. How many teams had as good second bigman as Dwight? How many teams had as good rim protector and help defender at 3 as James? Lakers also had decent perimeter defenders as well.

I can't deny, his game 4 performance is an all-time great one. One game doesn't make him GOAT though. Do you think Duncan never had as good defensive performance?

Dwight as in the guy who can only be on the floor in the playoffs because of Davis himself? Calling the Lakers stacked defensively is an enormous stretch.

Also as E-Balla said, it's the type of greatness we're watching. It's safe to say no player has ever covered as much ground so quickly on defense as Davis does, he's basically everywhere.

I don't have much to say if you think that Dwight can be on the floor only because of Davis. He was arguably the best defensive player in WCF...

Dwight would be unplayable if Davis wasn't the Lakers primary big. Without being paired with Davis's versatility on both ends, Dwight would be unplayable; you give up too much shooting/spacing/creation/switchability/court coverage/etc... if you pair Howard with a traditional center and obviously Howard can't be your primary big at all at this point in his career.

Dwight did a great job on Jokic, but he'd not even have been playable without Davis.

[70sFan]

Dwight as in the guy who can only be on the floor in the playoffs because of Davis himself? Calling the Lakers stacked defensively is an enormous stretch.

Also as E-Balla said, it's the type of greatness we're watching. It's safe to say no player has ever covered as much ground so quickly on defense as Davis does, he's basically everywhere.

I don't have much to say if you think that Dwight can be on the floor only because of Davis. He was arguably the best defensive player in WCF...

Dwight would be unplayable if Davis wasn't the Lakers primary big. Without being paired with Davis's versatility on both ends, Dwight would be unplayable; you give up too much shooting/spacing/creation/switchability/court coverage/etc... if you pair Howard with a traditional center and obviously Howard can't be your primary big at all at this point in his career.

Dwight did a great job on Jokic, but he'd not even have been playable without Davis.

What is the logic behind playing Howard with another center? Howard is a center, why should I expect him to fit well with another center?

If you want to tell me that Lakers would have been much worse without Davis, then sure but I never denied that. Howard would be still amazing with someone like Giannis or prime Blake Griffin. His defense would be always valuable.

[Joey Wheeler]

I don't have much to say if you think that Dwight can be on the floor only because of Davis. He was arguably the best defensive player in WCF...

Dwight would be unplayable if Davis wasn't the Lakers primary big. Without being paired with Davis's versatility on both ends, Dwight would be unplayable; you give up too much shooting/spacing/creation/switchability/court coverage/etc... if you pair Howard with a traditional center and obviously Howard can't be your primary big at all at this point in his career.

Dwight did a great job on Jokic, but he'd not even have been playable without Davis.

What is the logic behind playing Howard with another center? Howard is a center, why should I expect him to fit well with another center?

If you want to tell me that Lakers would have been much worse without Davis, then sure but I never denied that. Howard would be still amazing with someone like Giannis or prime Blake Griffin. His defense would be always valuable.

Davis is center-sized as well and can operate as an ultra elite primary rim protector. However, he's also a wing who can guard 1 to 5, which allows for someone with Howard's characteristics to be slotted along him without sacrificing key elements like switchability, court coverage, spacing...

There's simply no way the Lakers can have Howard on the floor for any meaningful minutes in the playoffs without Davis being on the floor. Since Davis is such a versatile defensive player, you can credibly field what is essentially a 2-center lineup and have Howard guard Jokic; Howard did a good job in his role, but that's it: a role. Davis is the one who makes everything the Lakers do on defense possible, without him Howard can't even see the floor.

Giannis and Howard? Good luck scoring against any good playoff defense with those two on the floor at the same time. Even on defense, it'll get Giannis out on the perimeter, where is impact is much lower...

[MyUniBroDavis]

Murray-Jokic PNR gave a lot of problems for Davis also, and would for anyone. Gobert defended against the PNR perfectly fine once Mike Conley came back, and he was a better defender against Jokic in man to man.

There is no pretending. Gobert's defensive impact is felt in nearly every series. The whole he can't guard the PNR has not true, at least no worse than any other legitimate big.

Wait jokic absolutely torched gobert lmao, way more than he did AD

I feel AD handled the murray and gobert pick and roll fine, i didnt watch the jazz series closely enough but jokic definately attacked gobert much more than he did AD

No he didn't, he was forced to take contested shots and felt uncomfortable inside. Just watch game 7 - one of Jokic's finest performances this year - and look how well Gobert defended him.

The truth is that Davis didn't guard Jokic for 90% of the series, while Gobert had to play him straight all series long. Huge difference in roles.

Gobert defended the most post ups per game than anyone else in the nba these playoffs by a substantial amount and gave up so many ppp that he literally was in the 0th percentile lol

[MyUniBroDavis]

Murray-Jokic PNR gave a lot of problems for Davis also, and would for anyone. Gobert defended against the PNR perfectly fine once Mike Conley came back, and he was a better defender against Jokic in man to man.

There is no pretending. Gobert's defensive impact is felt in nearly every series. The whole he can't guard the PNR has not true, at least no worse than any other legitimate big.

Wait jokic absolutely torched gobert lmao, way more than he did AD

I feel AD handled the murray and gobert pick and roll fine, i didnt watch the jazz series closely enough but jokic definately attacked gobert much more than he did AD

I feel like you don't pay attention to defensive match ups.

Anthony Davis barely guarded Nikola Jokic, and when he did - he could not guard him. Jokic pretty much had his way with Davis in the post (or maybe I am remembering Jokic highlights too well, regardless Davis barely affected Nikola that series). Jokic struggled against Dwight Howard, not Anthony Davis.

Anthony Davis was hidden on Grant.

I mean your sentence is so wildly off and you say "lmao" - but the next paragraph you just said you didn't watch the series closely?

Davis guarded grant when dwight was in because dwight basically made jokic not attack

Jokic got most of his points off of mismatches and off ball spot ups and stuff.

He shot well against AD but was clearly more hesitent to attack him than he was against gobert. I never said AD clamped him down i said gobert got abused, and AD didnt do bad guarding that pick and roll

[MisterHibachi]

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