2019-2020 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

Dutchball97 · Post #941 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 6:12 am

After tonight I can't justify putting Butler outside of my top 5. Where exactly to put him will depend on how the series ends but I highly doubt he'll be lower than 5 on my list. LeBron/AD are pretty much both locks, maybe if they completely crumble now but that chance is pretty much nonexistent. After that I'm leaning Giannis and Harden, even though Jokic might also still get the nod over one of them.

The top talent has been really close this year but it still feels weird not to have Kawhi in top 5 POY after thinking he was the best player all year.

The High Cyde · Post #942 » by **The High Cyde** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 6:43 am

Do we ever account of players leveling up during a series?

How else to account for such a jump? Butler was at best the what, 8th best player during the season? But honestly he felt like an afterthought, like outside the top 10.

The way he’s controlling the game and damn near outshining the face of the league is pretty remarkable, all undermanned too.

I agree he is top 5 though, there’s no way around it.

Will he still be top 5 middle of next season? I think he’s shown us that that’s immaterial to him, seems much more of a playoff guy, and nothing wrong with that, he produces results.

therealbig3 · Post #943 » by **therealbig3** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:09 am

Yeah, I honestly thought his game 3 was a fluke and that he couldn't play like that again...boy was I wrong.

I did say before that Butler wouldn't make my top 5 unless he played way better than anything he's shown before and forces me to change my mind...and he's doing that now. The main reason I couldn't put him in the top 5 was because I didn't see him as someone that could consistently carry the offensive load that other superstars were doing. But he's doing that now, and he's been the best player in the Finals, on either team...and that's a huge deal, given my #1 and #2 players in the league are on the other side.

So yeah, I think I kind of have to move Butler to 5th, especially if he gives another great performance in game 6, win or lose.

70sFan · Post #944 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 8:47 am

Dutchball97 wrote:The top talent has been really close this year but it still feels weird not to have Kawhi in top 5 POY after thinking he was the best player all year.

I have the same problem - I thought Kawhi was 1st, maybe 2nd at worst and now I don't think he'll make my top 5. LeBron, AD, Jokic and Butler are clear choices to me. Then you have Harden and Giannis who can steal him 5th spot.

Dutchball97 · Post #945 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:00 am

An interesting thought is if Butler somehow keeps up this level of play throughout the series and Miami end up winning, would he be #1? As a precedent there is Dirk in 2011. He had a comprable regular season to Jimmy had this year and even in the play-offs he wasn't a statistical monster but he was the best player in the Finals and beat a juggernaut LeBron/Wade Heat team. Butler leading this young Heat team past the LeBron/AD Lakers would be a comparable achievement imo.

On the other hand Dirk's main competition was also LeBron, but he didn't show up to his usual level in the Finals in 2011. This year LeBron has been playing like the clear best player in the league and unless the next 2 games are stinkers I'm not sure knocking this version of LeBron off the #1 spot will be as likely as with the chokier 2011 version of LeBron.

70sFan · Post #946 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:08 am

I think that Dirk had clearly better regular season in 2011, he was MVP candidate and didn't get it mostly because of missed games (in which Dallas sucked). Butler had good RS, but he was never in MVP race.

limbo · Post #947 » by **limbo** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:21 am

At the same time, Dirk didn't directly outplay two MVP candidates performing at their peak level in the Finals while playing on a depleted team and getting more defensive attention while having a harder defensive assignment.

If you didn't have Butler in your Top 5 most of the year but are considering putting him in the Top 5 because he is playing like the best player in the league at the biggest stage, then why not put him at #1, since he is playing like the best player in the league on the biggest stage?

70sFan · Post #948 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:57 am

I would consider Butler for my 1st spot, but the series is not over yet and we need to see how he (and James/Davis) will play in remaining game(s).

Dutchball97 · Post #949 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:05 am

70sFan wrote:I think that Dirk had clearly better regular season in 2011, he was MVP candidate and didn't get it mostly because of missed games (in which Dallas sucked). Butler had good RS, but he was never in MVP race.

Dirk was relatively better but I view the early 10s as weaker than the current league. LeBron led the league with a BPM of 8.1 in 2011, which would've been good enough for 6th in 2020. Dirk would've been 11th with his 5.1 BPM, one spot below Butler. Obviously BPM isn't all there is to player comparisons but it is a solid indication that this version of Butler would've probably gotten MVP consideration in 2011 and 2011 Dirk probably wouldn't have been in the MVP convo in 2020.

70sFan · Post #950 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:22 am

Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think that Dirk had clearly better regular season in 2011, he was MVP candidate and didn't get it mostly because of missed games (in which Dallas sucked). Butler had good RS, but he was never in MVP race.

Dirk was relatively better but I view the early 10s as weaker than the current league. LeBron led the league with a BPM of 8.1 in 2011, which would've been good enough for 6th in 2020. Dirk would've been 11th with his 5.1 BPM, one spot below Butler. Obviously BPM isn't all there is to player comparisons but it is a solid indication that this version of Butler would've probably gotten MVP consideration in 2011 and 2011 Dirk probably wouldn't have been in the MVP convo in 2020.

You can't compare stats like that. High BPM doesn't necessarily mean that the league is stronger, but it can also mean that it's easier for superstars to accumulate stats than it used to be. 2011 and 2020 are basically two different environments in terms of rules, officiating and style of play.

Dutchball97 · Post #951 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:29 am

70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think that Dirk had clearly better regular season in 2011, he was MVP candidate and didn't get it mostly because of missed games (in which Dallas sucked). Butler had good RS, but he was never in MVP race.

Dirk was relatively better but I view the early 10s as weaker than the current league. LeBron led the league with a BPM of 8.1 in 2011, which would've been good enough for 6th in 2020. Dirk would've been 11th with his 5.1 BPM, one spot below Butler. Obviously BPM isn't all there is to player comparisons but it is a solid indication that this version of Butler would've probably gotten MVP consideration in 2011 and 2011 Dirk probably wouldn't have been in the MVP convo in 2020.

You can't compare stats like that. High BPM doesn't necessarily mean that the league is stronger, but it can also mean that it's easier for superstars to accumulate stats than it used to be. 2011 and 2020 are basically two different environments in terms of rules, officiating and style of play.

Even if you just compare how they did relatively to their competition I'm still not seeing Dirk as having a different tier of performance in 2011 regular season than Butler in 2020. They both grade out as back end of the top 10 guys.

70sFan · Post #952 » by **70sFan** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:52 am

Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
Dirk was relatively better but I view the early 10s as weaker than the current league. LeBron led the league with a BPM of 8.1 in 2011, which would've been good enough for 6th in 2020. Dirk would've been 11th with his 5.1 BPM, one spot below Butler. Obviously BPM isn't all there is to player comparisons but it is a solid indication that this version of Butler would've probably gotten MVP consideration in 2011 and 2011 Dirk probably wouldn't have been in the MVP convo in 2020.

You can't compare stats like that. High BPM doesn't necessarily mean that the league is stronger, but it can also mean that it's easier for superstars to accumulate stats than it used to be. 2011 and 2020 are basically two different environments in terms of rules, officiating and style of play.

Even if you just compare how they did relatively to their competition I'm still not seeing Dirk as having a different tier of performance in 2011 regular season than Butler in 2020. They both grade out as back end of the top 10 guys.

Dirk was 6th in MVP voting and it's mostly because he missed games. Dallas were on 62 wins pace with Dirk (and terrible 2-7 without him). MVP voting is all about narratives, imagine Dallas finishing with 60-62 wins, only Bulls would have comparable record and we all know that Dirk was much better player than Rose in that season. Instead, Dirk missed 9 games and he finished behind Kobe Bryant which is ridiculous.

Dirk was at worst top 5 in MVP debate back in 2011 RS. Jimmy Bulter was 11th in MVP voting and although I think it underrates him a lot, he's not close to top 5. Their RS performances are not comparable at all.

Dutchball97 · Post #953 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 11:55 am

70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:You can't compare stats like that. High BPM doesn't necessarily mean that the league is stronger, but it can also mean that it's easier for superstars to accumulate stats than it used to be. 2011 and 2020 are basically two different environments in terms of rules, officiating and style of play.

Even if you just compare how they did relatively to their competition I'm still not seeing Dirk as having a different tier of performance in 2011 regular season than Butler in 2020. They both grade out as back end of the top 10 guys.

Dirk was 6th in MVP voting and it's mostly because he missed games. Dallas were on 62 wins pace with Dirk (and terrible 2-7 without him). MVP voting is all about narratives, imagine Dallas finishing with 60-62 wins, only Bulls would have comparable record and we all know that Dirk was much better player than Rose in that season. Instead, Dirk missed 9 games and he finished behind Kobe Bryant which is ridiculous.

Dirk was at worst top 5 in MVP debate back in 2011 RS. Jimmy Bulter was 11th in MVP voting and although I think it underrates him a lot, he's not close to top 5. Their RS performances are not comparable at all.

I can understand people not buying my argument based off BPM alone but I feel like MVP votes are much less valuable for analytic purposes. Fans and media being higher on a former MVP playing like a top 10 player than they were about Butler this year doesn't surprise me but it doesn't mean Dirk was necessarily better.

Post #954 » by **PaulieWal** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:38 pm

limbo wrote:At the same time, Dirk didn't directly outplay two MVP candidates performing at their peak level in the Finals while playing on a depleted team and getting more defensive attention while having a harder defensive assignment.

If you didn't have Butler in your Top 5 most of the year but are considering putting him in the Top 5 because he is playing like the best player in the league at the biggest stage, then why not put him at #1, since he is playing like the best player in the league on the biggest stage?

Outside of game 3 where Butler outplayed LeBron, LeBron has matched him or been better than Butler in all the other games, don't see how Butler is the overall best player in the Finals.

Dutchball97 · Post #955 » by **Dutchball97** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 1:49 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
limbo wrote:At the same time, Dirk didn't directly outplay two MVP candidates performing at their peak level in the Finals while playing on a depleted team and getting more defensive attention while having a harder defensive assignment.

If you didn't have Butler in your Top 5 most of the year but are considering putting him in the Top 5 because he is playing like the best player in the league at the biggest stage, then why not put him at #1, since he is playing like the best player in the league on the biggest stage?

Outside of game 3 where Butler outplayed LeBron, LeBron has matched him or been better than Butler in all the other games, don't see how Butler is the overall best player in the Finals.

I think the two main arguments right now being Butler having the highest gamescore in the series over 5 games, as well doing it as the lone star on his team (Bam and Dragic are All-Star level players as well but both missed significant time), while LeBron and AD have each other.

I still think LeBron has been the best overall player this series but after game 5 Butler should at least get some consideration.

limbo · Post #956 » by **limbo** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:09 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
limbo wrote:At the same time, Dirk didn't directly outplay two MVP candidates performing at their peak level in the Finals while playing on a depleted team and getting more defensive attention while having a harder defensive assignment.

If you didn't have Butler in your Top 5 most of the year but are considering putting him in the Top 5 because he is playing like the best player in the league at the biggest stage, then why not put him at #1, since he is playing like the best player in the league on the biggest stage?

Outside of game 3 where Butler outplayed LeBron, LeBron has matched him or been better than Butler in all the other games, don't see how Butler is the overall best player in the Finals.

Butler has a bigger playmaking burden. Butler has more assists. Butler has less turnovers. Butler has been significantly better at drawing fouls. Butler has played almost 4 more minutes per game this series. Butler is defending harder matchups more consistently. Butler is being defended by better defenders more consistently and receiving more focus. Butler second best player is strictly a 3pt shooter, not a guy that puts up 26 ppg on 71%TS and plays DPOY defense. Butler is playing with less help on both ends in general and a more inexperienced overall team. Butler has had to make bigger adjustments in this series because his team has been playing without a 20/7 guy in Goran that was a key part of how the Heat ran their offense, and Bam missed times as well.

WarriorGM · Post #957 » by **WarriorGM** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:17 pm

Whenever James puts up numbers it seems as if his teammates start stinking it up. It's the Westbrook effect. It's why the numbers James puts up need to be met with skepticism; it's a pattern with him. Big numbers don't equal winning basketball. Too many examples in history show this but people still keep falling for it.

Post #958 » by **PaulieWal** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:49 pm

limbo wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
limbo wrote:At the same time, Dirk didn't directly outplay two MVP candidates performing at their peak level in the Finals while playing on a depleted team and getting more defensive attention while having a harder defensive assignment.

If you didn't have Butler in your Top 5 most of the year but are considering putting him in the Top 5 because he is playing like the best player in the league at the biggest stage, then why not put him at #1, since he is playing like the best player in the league on the biggest stage?

Outside of game 3 where Butler outplayed LeBron, LeBron has matched him or been better than Butler in all the other games, don't see how Butler is the overall best player in the Finals.

Butler has a bigger playmaking burden. Butler has more assists. Butler has less turnovers. Butler has been significantly better at drawing fouls. Butler has played almost 4 more minutes per game this series. Butler is defending harder matchups more consistently. Butler is being defended by better defenders more consistently and receiving more focus. Butler second best player is strictly a 3pt shooter, not a guy that puts up 26 ppg on 71%TS and plays DPOY defense. Butler is playing with less help on both ends in general and a more inexperienced overall team. Butler has had to make bigger adjustments in this series because his team has been playing without a 20/7 guy in Goran that was a key part of how the Heat ran their offense, and Bam missed times as well.

I can do the same song and dance for LeBron. Butler has been phenomenal but like I said, outside of game 3 LeBron has been better or matched him. Even last night seems like a winning bias thing.

eminence · Post #959 » by **eminence** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:53 pm

I would also side with Butler being the best player in the Finals so far. LeBron pretty close, AD not all that close.

WarriorGM · Post #960 » by **WarriorGM** » Sat Oct 10, 2020 2:59 pm

The most important player on the Lakers is Anthony Davis. When he's been the best player the Lakers have won.