2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th: PT 2

[MGB8]

If you guys are talking about basketball-reference DRPM, that's not an actual plus minus stat, but instead a stat derived from the player's own boxscore and highly impacted by their offensive stats. It's basically worthless in terms of actually measuring defensive impact; go check out the basketball-reference's explainer on the stat.

Better to look at NBA.com for the differences in opponent FG%, or even basketball reference's on/off numbers (raw plus minus) or 82games slightly better numbers.

[cjbulls]

I thought compensation for top picks will be less this year?

Compensation being lower and teams being willing to move down are two separate issues. Teams are more willing to move down, that doesn't mean the compensation will end up being less.

Agreed. @cjbulls said:

teams more than ever are willing to move down this year. However, because of that, they may not get as much for a high pick as they would in other years.

Hypothetically, IF the compensation IS less than other years, what are we talking here?

A few years ago 5 to 3 was the #5 pick and a lottery protected first. A jump from 4 to 1 is greater. So compensation is less.

I mean what do you expect, a 2nd rounder? Realistically there’s no good reason to drop from 1 to 4 unless you get big compensation or you know who you’d be getting at 4, which again in this draft will likely be impossible to predict.

[gobullschi]

Compensation being lower and teams being willing to move down are two separate issues. Teams are more willing to move down, that doesn't mean the compensation will end up being less.

Agreed. @cjbulls said:

teams more than ever are willing to move down this year. However, because of that, they may not get as much for a high pick as they would in other years.

Hypothetically, IF the compensation IS less than other years, what are we talking here?

A few years ago 5 to 3 was the #5 pick and a lottery protected first. A jump from 4 to 1 is greater. So compensation is less.

I mean what do you expect, a 2nd rounder? Realistically there’s no good reason to drop from 1 to 4 unless you get big compensation or you know who you’d be getting at 4, which again in this draft will likely be impossible to predict.

I’d consider moving up if the cost was minimal, especially for a lottery protected first round pick. Bulls have a ton of young talent already on the roster and would prefer to get the most talented player now (while Bulls won lotto).

[cjbulls]

Agreed. @cjbulls said:


Hypothetically, IF the compensation IS less than other years, what are we talking here?

A few years ago 5 to 3 was the #5 pick and a lottery protected first. A jump from 4 to 1 is greater. So compensation is less.

I mean what do you expect, a 2nd rounder? Realistically there’s no good reason to drop from 1 to 4 unless you get big compensation or you know who you’d be getting at 4, which again in this draft will likely be impossible to predict.

I’d consider moving up if the cost was minimal, especially for a lottery protected first round pick. Bulls have a ton of young talent already on the roster and would prefer to get the most talented player now (while Bulls won lotto).

If you had the #1 pick, would you trade down for a lottery protected FRP? There can be a lowered cost, but there is always a floor where falling below no longer makes sense.

The PR hit alone makes it not worthwhile.

[Chi town]

A few years ago 5 to 3 was the #5 pick and a lottery protected first. A jump from 4 to 1 is greater. So compensation is less.

I mean what do you expect, a 2nd rounder? Realistically there’s no good reason to drop from 1 to 4 unless you get big compensation or you know who you’d be getting at 4, which again in this draft will likely be impossible to predict.

I’d consider moving up if the cost was minimal, especially for a lottery protected first round pick. Bulls have a ton of young talent already on the roster and would prefer to get the most talented player now (while Bulls won lotto).

If you had the #1 pick, would you trade down for a lottery protected FRP? There can be a lowered cost, but there is always a floor where falling below no longer makes sense.

The PR hit alone makes it not worthwhile.

Danny Ainge is smiling at you.

[PlayerUp]

I'm sold that Kira Lewis Jr could be one of the best in the draft and I as well want to trade down but if you look at the many potential trade scenarios with trading down this draft, you will see that there are very limited options.

Not many teams have multiple picks and teams below us (Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Washington, Phoenix, San Antonio) don't have assets we need unless it includes future picks.

Some trade down scenarios though:

Hawks moving #6 for #4 + 2022 OKC Protected Pick
Knicks would consider say #4 for #8 + #27 + Dallas Pick
Suns would they consider #10 + 2021 1st (Top 4 Protected) for #4
Pelicans would they consider #13 + Couple Lakers/There Picks for #4

There just isn't many options.

More than likely we will stay at #4 and buying into the draft seems more likely than trading down but lets see what AK can do here.

Besides that, you have to believe a couple of these prospects are going to shoot up the draft in the upcoming weeks here.

Okoro - Has his offensive game developed?
Deni - Has his shooting improved?
Wiseman - How is he performing in workouts?
Hayes - How much has he improved?
Okongwu - How much has his offense improved?

Certainly a couple prospects are going to have made significant improvements since we last saw them 7+ months ago. Even the draft experts say that the mocks maybe completely wrong and the draft order could change significantly.

[Ayman78]

Anyone considering gambling a bit on Aleksej Pokusevski? He's listed as a PF, but he can rebound and protect the rim. Give him a year or two to develop an NBA body, he Lauri Markkanen could be a very interesting tandem at the 4 and 5. A splash brothers at the 4 and 5 with the shooting of Lavine and White that could be special.

Follow that up with drafting Jaden Mcdaniels in the second round it may not be a super team, but it's an engaging team. Billy Donovan could work with that and those are AK type player. Thoughts and opinions?

[MrFortune3]

Anyone considering gambling a bit on Aleksej Pokusevski? He's listed as a PF, but he can rebound and protect the rim. Give him a year or two to develop an NBA body, he Lauri Markkanen could be a very interesting tandem at the 4 and 5. A splash brothers at the 4 and 5 with the shooting of Lavine and White that could be special.

Follow that up with drafting Jaden Mcdaniels in the second round it may not be a super team, but it's an engaging team. Billy Donovan could work with that and those are AK type player. Thoughts and opinions?

Not with the #4. Hell no.
If we could get another 1st round pick after #4 then sure.

[MrFortune3]

I thought compensation for top picks will be less this year?

Compensation being lower and teams being willing to move down are two separate issues. Teams are more willing to move down, that doesn't mean the compensation will end up being less.

Agreed. @cjbulls said:

teams more than ever are willing to move down this year. However, because of that, they may not get as much for a high pick as they would in other years.

Hypothetically, IF the compensation IS less than other years, what are we talking here?

The last few trade ups have cost at least the current top 5 pick and a FRP next year, usually only top 8 or so protected.
That is not going to change in this draft.

[cjbulls]

I’d consider moving up if the cost was minimal, especially for a lottery protected first round pick. Bulls have a ton of young talent already on the roster and would prefer to get the most talented player now (while Bulls won lotto).

If you had the #1 pick, would you trade down for a lottery protected FRP? There can be a lowered cost, but there is always a floor where falling below no longer makes sense.

The PR hit alone makes it not worthwhile.

Danny Ainge is smiling at you.

Ainge’s deal came because he locked in who he was getting at #3, which I already mentioned isn’t applicable this year.

[drosereturn]

Anyone considering gambling a bit on Aleksej Pokusevski? He's listed as a PF, but he can rebound and protect the rim. Give him a year or two to develop an NBA body, he Lauri Markkanen could be a very interesting tandem at the 4 and 5. A splash brothers at the 4 and 5 with the shooting of Lavine and White that could be special.

Follow that up with drafting Jaden Mcdaniels in the second round it may not be a super team, but it's an engaging team. Billy Donovan could work with that and those are AK type player. Thoughts and opinions?

Why? I wouldnt still draft giannis with the pick for the same reason.

[Andi Obst]

Anyone considering gambling a bit on Aleksej Pokusevski? He's listed as a PF, but he can rebound and protect the rim. Give him a year or two to develop an NBA body, he Lauri Markkanen could be a very interesting tandem at the 4 and 5. A splash brothers at the 4 and 5 with the shooting of Lavine and White that could be special.

Follow that up with drafting Jaden Mcdaniels in the second round it may not be a super team, but it's an engaging team. Billy Donovan could work with that and those are AK type player. Thoughts and opinions?

I think he would be significantly better as a trade down pick, but I definitely wouldn't hate it. Have him ranked over a lot of guys we're discussing here. Big Poku fan.

[drosereturn]

I'm sold that Kira Lewis Jr could be one of the best in the draft and I as well want to trade down but if you look at the many potential trade scenarios with trading down this draft, you will see that there are very limited options.

Not many teams have multiple picks and teams below us (Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Washington, Phoenix, San Antonio) don't have assets we need unless it includes future picks.

Some trade down scenarios though:

Hawks moving #6 for #4 + 2022 OKC Protected Pick
Knicks would consider say #4 for #8 + #27 + Dallas Pick
Suns would they consider #10 + 2021 1st (Top 4 Protected) for #4
Pelicans would they consider #13 + Couple Lakers/There Picks for #4

There just isn't many options.

More than likely we will stay at #4 and buying into the draft seems more likely than trading down but lets see what AK can do here.


Certainly a couple prospects are going to have made significant improvements since we last saw them 7+ months ago. Even the draft experts say that the mocks maybe completely wrong and the draft order could change significantly.

The hidden pick is Lamelo they need to promise him at 4 or even trade up if it costs Gafford.
Most top teams will shun him bc of the Ball family issue and Lonzo didnt go well.
Ak has to exploit that situation to his favor and order Lavar he wont get drafted unless from the Bulls like MPJ did.

[Chi town]

If you had the #1 pick, would you trade down for a lottery protected FRP? There can be a lowered cost, but there is always a floor where falling below no longer makes sense.

The PR hit alone makes it not worthwhile.

Danny Ainge is smiling at you.

Ainge’s deal came because he locked in who he was getting at #3, which I already mentioned isn’t applicable this year.

Disagree. Everyone will have their guy. AK has said many times that he likes this draft. I’m sure he has his guy. I’m expecting Deni or Hayes.

[cjbulls]

Danny Ainge is smiling at you.

Ainge’s deal came because he locked in who he was getting at #3, which I already mentioned isn’t applicable this year.

Disagree. Everyone will have their guy. AK has said many times that he likes this draft. I’m sure he has his guy. I’m expecting Deni or Hayes.

What is to disagree about there? We have zero consensus on any sort of order. So how can Minnesota (since "everyone will have their guy)" know that by trading down to 4 that GS, Charlotte and to a lesser extent Chicago won't take their guy?

[cjbulls]

I'm sold that Kira Lewis Jr could be one of the best in the draft and I as well want to trade down but if you look at the many potential trade scenarios with trading down this draft, you will see that there are very limited options.

Not many teams have multiple picks and teams below us (Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Washington, Phoenix, San Antonio) don't have assets we need unless it includes future picks.

Some trade down scenarios though:

Hawks moving #6 for #4 + 2022 OKC Protected Pick
Knicks would consider say #4 for #8 + #27 + Dallas Pick
Suns would they consider #10 + 2021 1st (Top 4 Protected) for #4
Pelicans would they consider #13 + Couple Lakers/There Picks for #4

There just isn't many options.

More than likely we will stay at #4 and buying into the draft seems more likely than trading down but lets see what AK can do here.


Certainly a couple prospects are going to have made significant improvements since we last saw them 7+ months ago. Even the draft experts say that the mocks maybe completely wrong and the draft order could change significantly.

The hidden pick is Lamelo they need to promise him at 4 or even trade up if it costs Gafford.
Most top teams will shun him bc of the Ball family issue and Lonzo didnt go well.
Ak has to exploit that situation to his favor and order Lavar he wont get drafted unless from the Bulls like MPJ did.

Gafford will not move you up from 4. He would barely move you up from 4 in the second round.

[Chi town]

Ainge’s deal came because he locked in who he was getting at #3, which I already mentioned isn’t applicable this year.

Disagree. Everyone will have their guy. AK has said many times that he likes this draft. I’m sure he has his guy. I’m expecting Deni or Hayes.

What is to disagree about there? We have zero consensus on any sort of order. So how can Minnesota (since "everyone will have their guy)" know that by trading down to 4 that GS, Charlotte and to a lesser extent Chicago won't take their guy?

When Ainge traded back its because the Sixers wanted Fultz. No one knew Tatum was the pick at 3 until right before the draft.

I could see the same thing. Trade scenarios depend on their guy being there. Same as the Luka Trae Young trade.

How do people know? It seems like a gentlemen’s agreement. Same when Pax traded back for Tyrus.

[MrSparkle]

I'm sold that Kira Lewis Jr could be one of the best in the draft and I as well want to trade down but if you look at the many potential trade scenarios with trading down this draft, you will see that there are very limited options.

Not many teams have multiple picks and teams below us (Cleveland, Atlanta, Detroit, New York, Washington, Phoenix, San Antonio) don't have assets we need unless it includes future picks.

Some trade down scenarios though:

Hawks moving #6 for #4 + 2022 OKC Protected Pick
Knicks would consider say #4 for #8 + #27 + Dallas Pick
Suns would they consider #10 + 2021 1st (Top 4 Protected) for #4
Pelicans would they consider #13 + Couple Lakers/There Picks for #4

There just isn't many options.

More than likely we will stay at #4 and buying into the draft seems more likely than trading down but lets see what AK can do here.


Certainly a couple prospects are going to have made significant improvements since we last saw them 7+ months ago. Even the draft experts say that the mocks maybe completely wrong and the draft order could change significantly.

The hidden pick is Lamelo they need to promise him at 4 or even trade up if it costs Gafford.
Most top teams will shun him bc of the Ball family issue and Lonzo didnt go well.
Ak has to exploit that situation to his favor and order Lavar he wont get drafted unless from the Bulls like MPJ did.

Gafford will not move you up from 4. He would barely move you up from 4 in the second round.

I disagree. He’s locked up at the min. for 3 more years. GSW needs a center; Gafford makes sense. Everybody’s mock completely changes every 2 days.

[PlayerUp]

Anyone considering gambling a bit on Aleksej Pokusevski? He's listed as a PF, but he can rebound and protect the rim. Give him a year or two to develop an NBA body, he Lauri Markkanen could be a very interesting tandem at the 4 and 5. A splash brothers at the 4 and 5 with the shooting of Lavine and White that could be special.

Follow that up with drafting Jaden Mcdaniels in the second round it may not be a super team, but it's an engaging team. Billy Donovan could work with that and those are AK type player. Thoughts and opinions?

Poku more likely to be a bust than a boom. No chance you take a risk on any of these prospects in the lottery.

[cjbulls]

Disagree. Everyone will have their guy. AK has said many times that he likes this draft. I’m sure he has his guy. I’m expecting Deni or Hayes.

What is to disagree about there? We have zero consensus on any sort of order. So how can Minnesota (since "everyone will have their guy)" know that by trading down to 4 that GS, Charlotte and to a lesser extent Chicago won't take their guy?

When Ainge traded back its because the Sixers wanted Fultz. No one knew Tatum was the pick at 3 until right before the draft.

I could see the same thing. Trade scenarios depend on their guy being there. Same as the Luka Trae Young trade.

How do people know? It seems like a gentlemen’s agreement. Same when Pax traded back for Tyrus.

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2020/05/boston-celtics-star-jayson-tatum-was-never-going-to-end-up-in-phoenix-danny-ainge-says.html

Ainge knew, and he had only one team to account for (Ball to Lakers). You can keep pretending it was the same, but it was very different.