2020 Presidential Election Thread: The Homestretch

[GONYK]

What are the "enthusiasm" numbers?

Other than meaningless?

Why are you so sensitive about those? Hmm, let me guess?

But you can keep believing they're meaningless if you want, if that makes you sleep better.

Well, seeing as how everyone who had them has either already lost (by a lot) or seem to be on track to lose (by a lot), I'm not sure who is deluding themselves

High enthusiasm is usually indicative of a small base.

Joe Biden's coalition is YUGE

[HarthorneWingo]

From 9/27

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-biden-post-abc/2020/09/26/940ef678-ff7f-11ea-9ceb-061d646d9c67_story.html

Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is higher than among Biden supporters, a pattern that has been seen throughout this election year. Among registered voters, 65 percent of those currently favoring Trump say they are very enthusiastic about that support. Among those backing Biden, 47 percent of registered voters say they are very enthusiastic about their support for him.

Despite lacking fervor for Biden, the former vice president’s supporters are intensely concerned about Trump winning a second term, with a 70 percent majority of Biden voters saying Trump’s reelection would be “a crisis for the country.” By comparison, 59 percent of Trump voters say a Biden victory by would result in such a crisis. Among voters who support Biden but are “somewhat enthusiastic” or less about his candidacy, 56 percent say a Trump victory would mark a crisis.

[GONYK]

From 9/27

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-biden-post-abc/2020/09/26/940ef678-ff7f-11ea-9ceb-061d646d9c67_story.html

Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is higher than among Biden supporters, a pattern that has been seen throughout this election year. Among registered voters, 65 percent of those currently favoring Trump say they are very enthusiastic about that support. Among those backing Biden, 47 percent of registered voters say they are very enthusiastic about their support for him.

Despite lacking fervor for Biden, the former vice president’s supporters are intensely concerned about Trump winning a second term, with a 70 percent majority of Biden voters saying Trump’s reelection would be “a crisis for the country.” By comparison, 59 percent of Trump voters say a Biden victory by would result in such a crisis. Among voters who support Biden but are “somewhat enthusiastic” or less about his candidacy, 56 percent say a Trump victory would mark a crisis.

Yes, and Biden's lead has grown since then.

Like I said...meaningless.

People like Joe and making him the nominee has persuaded a significant amount of people in the middle, including Republicans, which polls are showing is the major source of his polling lead.

[BallSacBounce]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Read on Twitter

?s=19

The numbers are flushing a lot of pro-Trump/ant-Biden narratives going down the drain

What are the "enthusiasm" numbers?

In this outdoor event you can hear Trump supporters drowning out the outdrawn for his own rally Biden's speech with chants of four more years.

Read on Twitter

And as I noted earlier, police in Miami said there were 30,000 vehicles in the pro Trump car rally organized by Latinos and I read Biden had 15 for his Miami car rally. That 15 was unconfirmed by police however so there's still some hope that number is at least somewhat incorrect.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Read on Twitter

?s=19

The numbers are flushing a lot of pro-Trump/ant-Biden narratives going down the drain

What are the "enthusiasm" numbers?

Other than meaningless?

The early vote/mail in voting lead is what we should be focusing on. It’s all about turnout during this election. If Democrats can keep the in person voting numbers close it’s going to be a blood bath for Republicans. The good thing about the early voting numbers is that Democrats can still get people out to run up the score.

[Pointgod]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Read on Twitter

?s=19

The numbers are flushing a lot of pro-Trump/ant-Biden narratives going down the drain

What are the "enthusiasm" numbers?

In this outdoor event you can hear Trump supporters drowning out the outdrawn for his own rally Biden's speech with chants of four more years.

Read on Twitter

And as I noted earlier, police in Miami said there were 30,000 vehicles in the pro Trump car rally organized by Latinos and I read Biden had 15 for his Miami car rally. That 15 was unconfirmed by police however so there's still some hope that number is at least somewhat incorrect.

Yes the overwhelming force of *checks notes* dozens of Trump supporters. You’re not really reinforcing your point here.

[GONYK]

What are the "enthusiasm" numbers?

Other than meaningless?

The early vote/mail in voting lead is what we should be focusing on. It’s all about turnout during this election. If Democrats can keep the in person voting numbers close it’s going to be a blood bath for Republicans. The good thing about the early voting numbers is that Democrats can still get people out to run up the score.

The numbers are saying that it's not just about turnout. Joe Biden actually also persuaded people.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

So while turnout will absolutely help Biden run up the score, it appears he also fundamentally altered the differential in the voting population, which is a pretty big deal in this era of polarization.

It's also showing "shy Trump voters" seem to have no problem saying they voted for Trump in '16 and hate him now.

[Pointgod]

Other than meaningless?

The early vote/mail in voting lead is what we should be focusing on. It’s all about turnout during this election. If Democrats can keep the in person voting numbers close it’s going to be a blood bath for Republicans. The good thing about the early voting numbers is that Democrats can still get people out to run up the score.

The numbers are saying that it's not just about turnout. Joe Biden actually also persuaded people.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I think there’s a potential surprise wave of new voters showing up to vote for Biden could really push things over the top in his favor. So far the strategy has been to peel off some Republicans and Independents, the turnout strategy is tricky as we saw in the primary with Bernie. The thing about these polls is that they’re not factoring in first time voters. There has been a lot of work registering and activating new voters from the Democrats. The youth vote is heavily being discounted here but if they show up in force it’s a game changer.

[Oscirus]

Harry Reid ended the filibuster on federal judges McConnell extended that to the SC.

This judicial argunent is a whole different animal but go ahead and push that justification publicly. Looking forward to it.

Rhetoric in 2016 was no different than 2020 is. Orange Man is so, so bad. Same, same. I don't see how it pushes the.needle this time when it wasn't enough the last time.

I think the soft fizzle of the ending of the Mueller investigation and the Impeachment proceedings will have a positive effect for Trump. Maybe not, we'll see.

By definition incumbents have been vetted. The public listened to the counter arguments and rejected them. They are difficult to replace.

Since the end of World War II there have been 11 incumbent presidential elections. Only 3 were lost.

Ford lost to Carter. Perfectly understandable he was not elected in the first place and the stench of Watergate hung over Republicans at the time.

Carter loses to Reagan. Reagan was a charismatic candidate and Carter was, well, "malaise."

George HW Bush loses to Clinton. Again a much different very charismatic candidate wins over a dud.

Biden is no Clinton or Reagan. He's a dud himself. So you are relegated to a toxic smear campaign against Trump. It could work of course. People could very well be tired of the whole shebang no matter who is at fault. It's possible.

But this guy has been smeared and denigrated his entire previous campaign and his entire term and nothing seems to stick. People may just be ignoring the sounding of the alarms by now. It's entirely possible its been done too many times and that message is being tuned out as background noise.

So we might just be back again ironically enough to this election being decided mainly on the issues not the smears by either side. The noise level has been deafening but are many people just plain deaf now because of it?

Facts without context are cheats. Reid was forced to kill the filibuster cuz the republicans were using it to stymie Obamas picks at every turn. So while the bull they pulled with garland was better known, it was only the tip of the iceberg of the **** they were pulling with Obama's lower court appointments. Theres a reason there were so many openings for Trump to fill. Also, you know what senators said when asked about allowing Hillary to pick if she won? We can do with 8. So I guess they forgot to be worried about tradition then. Biden not committing to one side or another is a warning, not an indication of anything... yet.

Trumps actions speak for themselves. It's alot easier to bull the populace when you're a relative unknown with no real record to run on facing probably the most unpopular democrat that was forced down everybody's throat. And while yes biden isn't like the others who have unseated incumbents, trump is a whole lot worse than the incumbents who have been unseated. Dems dont have to smear trump, he plays himself with every action, every word that he blusters not just on tv, but on twitter for all to see.

Harry Reid was never forced to do anything he was a hyper partisan **** who screwed with Bush's appointments and cried wolf when Obama's appointments were on pace with Bush's. Tough **** Harry.

https://www.lee.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/op-eds?ID=27dac90e-11a3-48d1-b970-19c2894530a5

In an attempt to create the perception of Republican resistance, Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev), has taken the extraordinary step of scheduling contentious cloture votes for 17 nominees who were otherwise on the normal path to routine confirmation, claiming “delay for delay’s sake.”

Of course, these desperate claims are entirely false: the Senate has already confirmed more of President Obama’s nominees (129) than it did during President George W. Bush’s entire second term (120), and has done so at an almost identical pace (average of 218 and 211 days, respectively, from nomination to confirmation). Indeed, not long ago Reid acknowledged that the Senate has “done a good job on nominations,” and a Judiciary Committee Democrat recently noted that we have been “speeding up the confirmation of judges.”

Claims of Republican obstruction are not only demonstrably false, they are highly hypocritical. The very Democrats now seeking to manufacture confirmation controversy personally devised and carried out a systematic effort to block President Bush’s judicial nominees through an unprecedented use of the Senate filibuster.

It is a matter of historical record that beginning in 2001, Senate Democrats dramatically changed the confirmation process. Throughout the Bush administration, Democrats actively sought to block numerous judicial nominees, forcing more than 30 cloture votes as Republicans tried to end persistent Democratic filibuster efforts.  
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), voted against cloture a record-setting 27 times. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), cast 26 votes to filibuster Bush nominees and, in 2003, defiantly declared: “Yes, we are blocking judges by filibuster. That is part of the hallowed process around here.”  

Even Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who now claims to have been “respectful of President Bush’s appointments,” repeatedly joined with Democratic colleagues in attempting to filibuster judicial confirmations, including seven separate votes against cloture for the nomination of Miguel Estrada—one of the nation’s leading appellate lawyers—to the D.C. Circuit.  

Not to be outdone, Reid took virtually every opportunity to block Bush nominees, voting against cloture on 26 separate occasions. In his view there was no amount of time—“not a number in the universe”—that would be adequate for debate on the filibustered nominees.

Hyperpartisan he says as he posts an oped from the same mike lee who said this aint a democracy.

Democrats were blocking so hard, they gave up the supreme court not too far off from an election where it was a pretty safe bet that they'd win, but sure play the victim. Thats all yall are good for anyway.

[Pointgod]

How’s this for enthusiasm?

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Clyde_Style]

From 9/27

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-biden-post-abc/2020/09/26/940ef678-ff7f-11ea-9ceb-061d646d9c67_story.html

Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is higher than among Biden supporters, a pattern that has been seen throughout this election year. Among registered voters, 65 percent of those currently favoring Trump say they are very enthusiastic about that support. Among those backing Biden, 47 percent of registered voters say they are very enthusiastic about their support for him.

Despite lacking fervor for Biden, the former vice president’s supporters are intensely concerned about Trump winning a second term, with a 70 percent majority of Biden voters saying Trump’s reelection would be “a crisis for the country.” By comparison, 59 percent of Trump voters say a Biden victory by would result in such a crisis. Among voters who support Biden but are “somewhat enthusiastic” or less about his candidacy, 56 percent say a Trump victory would mark a crisis.

GONYK already gave you the perfect answer, but I'll paraphrase by saying winning by coalition building has by default less to do with enthusiasm for the person and more to do with common cause which in this case is clear cut. You know this though so not sure why you think this is a metric that predicts success. Rabid cultists tend to rate a candidate higher on that basis, but that is not the determining factor of their electability

[HarthorneWingo]

From 9/27

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-biden-post-abc/2020/09/26/940ef678-ff7f-11ea-9ceb-061d646d9c67_story.html

Enthusiasm among Trump supporters is higher than among Biden supporters, a pattern that has been seen throughout this election year. Among registered voters, 65 percent of those currently favoring Trump say they are very enthusiastic about that support. Among those backing Biden, 47 percent of registered voters say they are very enthusiastic about their support for him.

Despite lacking fervor for Biden, the former vice president’s supporters are intensely concerned about Trump winning a second term, with a 70 percent majority of Biden voters saying Trump’s reelection would be “a crisis for the country.” By comparison, 59 percent of Trump voters say a Biden victory by would result in such a crisis. Among voters who support Biden but are “somewhat enthusiastic” or less about his candidacy, 56 percent say a Trump victory would mark a crisis.

Yes, and Biden's lead has grown since then.

Like I said...meaningless.

People like Joe and making him the nominee has persuaded a significant amount of people in the middle, including Republicans, which polls are showing is the major source of his polling lead.

If you're wrong, you have to have one of your parties and I'm invited.

[HarthorneWingo]

How’s this for enthusiasm?

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

It's evidence of peoples' hatred for the orange blob of COVID goo in the White House.

[GONYK]

From 9/27

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-trump-biden-post-abc/2020/09/26/940ef678-ff7f-11ea-9ceb-061d646d9c67_story.html

Yes, and Biden's lead has grown since then.

Like I said...meaningless.

People like Joe and making him the nominee has persuaded a significant amount of people in the middle, including Republicans, which polls are showing is the major source of his polling lead.

If you're wrong, you have to have one of your parties and I'm invited.

If I'm wrong, my next party theme will be the Red Wedding

[Clyde_Style]

The early vote/mail in voting lead is what we should be focusing on. It’s all about turnout during this election. If Democrats can keep the in person voting numbers close it’s going to be a blood bath for Republicans. The good thing about the early voting numbers is that Democrats can still get people out to run up the score.

The numbers are saying that it's not just about turnout. Joe Biden actually also persuaded people.

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I think there’s a potential surprise wave of new voters showing up to vote for Biden could really push things over the top in his favor. So far the strategy has been to peel off some Republicans and Independents, the turnout strategy is tricky as we saw in the primary with Bernie. The thing about these polls is that they’re not factoring in first time voters. There has been a lot of work registering and activating new voters from the Democrats. The youth vote is heavily being discounted here but if they show up in force it’s a game changer.

I agree. Whatever the split is on election day, there are so many of us, myself included, who will go vote early in-person, to avoid using mail and drop boxes and also to get our vote counted ahead of November 3rd. And I think this surge is underway right now and it is likely heavily favoring Biden. It could be enough to top off the election night totals to issue electoral projections even if the final result takes another week or so. I don't think Trump is going to be able to litigate and stall his way into January like some think. I think this will be called decisively for Biden no later than mid-November if not sooner.

[Clyde_Style]

The last time I drank any alcohol was July 4th

The next and last time I'll drink in 2020 is on election night

I'm making margaritas and watching the results

Who's with me?

[HarthorneWingo]

The last time I drank any alcohol was July 4th

The next and last time I'll drink in 2020 is on election night

I'm making margaritas and watching the results

Who's with me?

Alcohol required.

And you're doing the game thread.

[BallSacBounce]

Democratic pollster John Zogby says its a 2 point race.


Charge: It’s a 2-point race, not 16, pro-Biden media polls trying to suppress Trump vote.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/charge-its-a-2-point-race-not-16-pro-biden-media-polls-trying-to-suppress-trump-vote

Add John Zogby to the growing number of Democratic pollsters questioning major media surveys showing a double-digit lead by Joe Biden over President Trump.

“It’s closer than you think,” according to Zogby, who’s own John Zogby Strategies survey puts Biden’s lead at two points, 49%-47%.

In his latest podcast with son and pollster Jeremy Zogby, John Zogby said that polls showing a bigger Biden lead are using a bad model, one that includes far too many Democrats.

No kidding. Wow what a shocker. It's the same **** they pulled in 2016.

His model follows the partisan turnout in 2016 that was about 34% Republicans and about 38% Democrats.

“We believe that is a more accurate reflection of the turnout model,” he said.

Makes sense. Sounds fair. You can quibble around the edges saying either Trump hatred or Trump enthusiasm is sky high and that could change the breakdown this time but one does have to start somewhere reasonable.

But others showing a big Biden lead over-weigh Democrats. “Now some of the polls that have come out, I find troubling,” he said, citing CNN, Fox, and YouGov. They give an average 15-point advantage to Democrats. CNN had it a 16-point lead.

“I’m a Democrat,” he said, but “I just don’t don’t think the sampling is accurate.”

If this **** happens again at what point does everyone's minds explode from the cognitive dissonance of what you've been told and what you see happening. What if you've been lied to the entire time how does that change your perception of things?

A final thought.

Read on Twitter

[Oscirus]

Honestly Trumps post office shananigans probably helped with the enthusiasm, so thanks for that I suppose.

[Pointgod]

How’s this for enthusiasm?

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

It's evidence of peoples' hatred for the orange blob of COVID goo in the White House.

Yeah because negative partisanship is absolutely a thing. I think that’s what gets lost in the enthusiasm conversation. Enthusiasm does not directly translate to votes or size of the voting based. For example there are a lot of posters on this board that complain, piss and moan about Biden but at the end of the day will end up voting for him. An unenthusiastic vote for Biden counts the same as a very enthusiastic vote. A large unenthusiastic base that votes for Biden is worth more than a smaller super enthusiastic Trump base.