2019-20 NBA Season Discussion

[Doctor MJ]

It was never optimal to run your offense through bigman, unless you have truly elite bigman. People act like Jokic doesn't count because he's special - every good offensive bigman was special. Kareem wouldn't become Meyers Leonard in today league. Wilt Chamberlain and Shaquille O'Neal had no peers in 70 years of NBA history. Saying that Kanter or Okafor play doesn't mean much in conparison to Wilt or Shaq, who were absolute outlier.

Nobody ever dominated the league with Wilt or Shaq style. Other than Wilt and Shaq of course.

The point is that the scale has tipped heavily in favor of wing/guard perimeter-based offensive systems in the last couple of decades...

There's no way any player, no matter how big or small, would be able to be anywhere close to the best offensive player in the league today playing the way Kareem did. And this is not a slight on Kareem, but the average NBA team is able to just generate much better offensive looks on a per-possession basis in today's league, mostly by the league improving in outside shooting as a whole, but also some rule changes that gave dribblers more leeway of what they're allowed to get away with on the court.

The only way Big men can hang with perimeter players in offensive impact and hope to anchor a championship caliber offense nowadays is if they mimic what perimeter players are doing on offense...;that is, be able to shoot, dribble, pass, score from anywhere on the floor.

This wasn't the case in the past... You could have a Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon type of offensive anchor and still have a fringe Top 5 offense 15-25 years ago. And the further back you go in time, the less you could optimize your offense through perimeter-based offensive systems. Which is why guys like Moses Malone could dominate offensively in the late 70's by basically camping in the low block, with no passing ability whatsoever and a middling 14 foot jumper at best.

This is all true, but I would say that I consider West & Oscar to be the best offensive player of the pre-Bird/Magic era, and the best offense of George Mikan's era was not his team but Bob Davies' Rochester Royals.

Ironically, right as the basketball world was deciding "run everything through the big man" the data was already telling a different story. Though granted, as I say that, the goaltending rule was critical for this.

[kayess]

@limbo: excellent point about the relaxation of dribbling rules. So much of what's made ballhandlers so OP now against defenses like their hesitations, change of pace, change of direction stems from the fact that players are allowed to get away with an OBSCENE amount of carrying. Watch Luka dribble, he carries the ball every single time, but since his hand is only 60% under the ball as opposed to 80% he can get away with it.

There's a term in anime fandom called "power creep" where suddenly everyone in the show just gets strong as hell for no reason compared to earlier in the story. That kind of stuff has happened with ballhandling in the NBA. The "power creep" of refereeing ballhandlers has made these perimeter guys unreasonably impactful compared to the early arcs of the NBA

Edit: Just saw the Dwight vs AD post. C'mon limbo Dwight is so much stronger than AD it's literally a laughable comparison. Dwight is a goddamn Minotaur. You can see the pain in people's faces when they collide with him. You can tell it literally hurts when you play against him. He's an outlier even amongst world class outlier athletes.

Yeah - Bam got injured jumping into Dwight's infamously ripped shoulders (who was really just harmlessly jumping straight up

[limbo]

Hmm, well I agree that Jokic is a pretty tricky dude.

In terms of bigger/strong/smarter I'm a bit confused. I mean, AD is obviously smarter, but I thought everyone saw Howard as obviously bigger and stronger. Davis might be longer - not actually sure on that - but if AD is as big and strong as Howard that's a recent thing. Howard was a considerably more effective bully than AD when they were both young.

I do agree with you though that AD would be a bit different if he could only focus on defense, but I just don't think he's ever had the body for jungle ball. I think if AD and LeBron got physical with each other, for example, that AD would be the one getting hurt.

True, Davis does seem a bit bipolar in that regard. Like, there are times where i watch him straight up move players in the paint, make space with his wide shoulders and then dunk in traffic with contact like it was nothing. But there are also times where he gets brushed by some contact and he's falling to the ground like he was just shot by a musket... Not to mention that AD's brain generally seems to default to a more skill-based/finesse game when he's trying to attack on offense, that seems to be his base mode, while Howard was always the guy that liked to bump and grind with other dudes in the paint.

I definitely think, in his prime, before he started picking up nagging injuries and getting older, Dwight was definitely more durable in terms of being able to play more physical through a 48-minute game and come out looking less sore at the end of it than AD at any point of his career. With AD you always worry his shoulder is going to get dislocated if he tries being too physical or something...

But yeah, Davis definitely looks like he's been gaining some weight and strength since 2015... He's a broad big dude, and he has the height, length advantage over Dwight.

[Heej]

@limbo: excellent point about the relaxation of dribbling rules. So much of what's made ballhandlers so OP now against defenses like their hesitations, change of pace, change of direction stems from the fact that players are allowed to get away with an OBSCENE amount of carrying. Watch Luka dribble, he carries the ball every single time, but since his hand is only 60% under the ball as opposed to 80% he can get away with it.

There's a term in anime fandom called "power creep" where suddenly everyone in the show just gets strong as hell for no reason compared to earlier in the story. That kind of stuff has happened with ballhandling in the NBA. The "power creep" of refereeing ballhandlers has made these perimeter guys unreasonably impactful compared to the early arcs of the NBA

Edit: Just saw the Dwight vs AD post. C'mon limbo Dwight is so much stronger than AD it's literally a laughable comparison. Dwight is a goddamn Minotaur. You can see the pain in people's faces when they collide with him. You can tell it literally hurts when you play against him. He's an outlier even amongst world class outlier athletes.

Yeah - Bam got injured jumping into Dwight's infamously ripped shoulders (who was really just harmlessly jumping straight up

Dude he didn't even jump into his shoulders he like jumped into his chest and still got hurt lmfaoo. I feel like if Dwight slapped the s*** out of me I would break my neck and die

[limbo]

Edit: Just saw the Dwight vs AD post. C'mon limbo Dwight is so much stronger than AD it's literally a laughable comparison. Dwight is a goddamn Minotaur. You can see the pain in people's faces when they collide with him. You can tell it literally hurts when you play against him. He's an outlier even amongst world class outlier athletes.

LOL, alright, alright

I just don't think AD is any pushover in terms of strength and physicality. I've seen him move some people around the paint and finish in contact with relative ease. Dwight is also supposedly lighter right now than he was in his prime, iirc?

But Dwight definitely relishes physical contact a lot more than AD and his body seems to respond better to it (though he also started picking a lot of nagging injuries because of it, took him some time get his body back right).

I think AD got injured so many times by physical contact that he rather teeters on the safe side and doesn't outright bang if he doesn't have to. Dwight was always a banger.

[kayess]

@limbo: excellent point about the relaxation of dribbling rules. So much of what's made ballhandlers so OP now against defenses like their hesitations, change of pace, change of direction stems from the fact that players are allowed to get away with an OBSCENE amount of carrying. Watch Luka dribble, he carries the ball every single time, but since his hand is only 60% under the ball as opposed to 80% he can get away with it.

There's a term in anime fandom called "power creep" where suddenly everyone in the show just gets strong as hell for no reason compared to earlier in the story. That kind of stuff has happened with ballhandling in the NBA. The "power creep" of refereeing ballhandlers has made these perimeter guys unreasonably impactful compared to the early arcs of the NBA

Edit: Just saw the Dwight vs AD post. C'mon limbo Dwight is so much stronger than AD it's literally a laughable comparison. Dwight is a goddamn Minotaur. You can see the pain in people's faces when they collide with him. You can tell it literally hurts when you play against him. He's an outlier even amongst world class outlier athletes.

Yeah - Bam got injured jumping into Dwight's infamously ripped shoulders (who was really just harmlessly jumping straight up

Dude he didn't even jump into his shoulders he like jumped into his chest and still got hurt lmfaoo. I feel like if Dwight slapped the s*** out of me I would break my neck and die

Nah it was definitely his shoulders/side. But yes, Dwight's super scary, and when you think about the fact that the Admiral was a a few inches taller and even more spectacularly ripped... yeah.

[MisterHibachi]

I think part of the shift to more big men is less because of Lakers vs Nuggets, but more about Clippers vs Nuggets. If you don't have a good big man to guard other star big men, you don't have a shot in the playoffs. Even a team with two superstar wings like the Clippers had no answer for Jokic because their big man rotation was weak. Jokic will still be there next year, and so will KP, KAT, and Ayton in a few years. Only a team as big as the Lakers were impervious to Jokic, but he torched the others. He would've torched Houston too, if that had been a series. KP proved challenging for the Clippers too, before getting hurt. For a team like the Clippers, can you really afford to not go all in on Zubac or another high level big man? Same for Houston and the Warriors. How are they planning to get past Jokic/KP, let alone AD?

[70sFan]

I don't agree, I think Kareem-led offense would be just fine as long as it's properly built. There is no reason to keep with this discussion further, we will never agree on that subject it seems.

[limbo]

@limbo: excellent point about the relaxation of dribbling rules. So much of what's made ballhandlers so OP now against defenses like their hesitations, change of pace, change of direction stems from the fact that players are allowed to get away with an OBSCENE amount of carrying. Watch Luka dribble, he carries the ball every single time, but since his hand is only 60% under the ball as opposed to 80% he can get away with it.

Yup. Luka is awesome at abusing the lack of strict dribbling constraints. He also combines it so well with his footwork and body 'shiftiness', which is why he's unstoppable from getting where he wants on the court and can cover up for his lack of ab elite first step burst and general explosion.

[kayess]

I don't agree, I think Kareem-led offense would be just fine as long as it's properly built. There is no reason to keep with this discussion further, we will never agree on that subject it seems.

Don't think anyone's saying it won't be fine, just that it theoretically doesn't have the same ceiling as one built around a perimeter guy or someone like Jokic (who has guard skills and insane vision).

You could argue that if Kareem were transported today with the benefit of watching the game as he grew up, that his passing and vision would've gone up a notch as he would've worked on it more, but it's really no fault of his own, the rules just favor perimeter players massively.

That said - the scenario I can see playing out is if Kareem/Shaq just completely physically overpower everyone else (doesn't seem like a stretch). They would for sure average an easy 30ppg on monstrous efficiency just because no one can really has the length or strength to push Kareem away and bother the sky hook, same with Shaq.

[limbo]

This is all true, but I would say that I consider West & Oscar to be the best offensive player of the pre-Bird/Magic era, and the best offense of George Mikan's era was not his team but Bob Davies' Rochester Royals.

Ironically, right as the basketball world was deciding "run everything through the big man" the data was already telling a different story. Though granted, as I say that, the goaltending rule was critical for this.

Which speaks volume that West and Oscar were able to still be arguably the best offensive players of their time despite playing basically handicapped on multiple fronts in comparison to what offensive 'weapons' modern players are able to indulge in (better schemes, more overall talent, spacing, 3pt shooting, less dribbling restrictions, arguably favorable rules...)

[70sFan]

I also want to point out one very underrated aspect of offense - resiliance. It might be true that Kareem-led team would never reach the heights of Harden-led for example, but in playoffs you have to deal with various defensive schemes - all focused on you. If there is anything that Kareem proved in his long career, it's that his offense couldn't be game planned against. When you start your career in the 1960s and you win FMVP in 1985 - all without major adjustments in his play (outside of some age-related nuances) - you prove that nothing could stop you.

Tell me, what is the way to slow down Kareem? You could try zone defense, but Kareem dealt with zones pretty well in the 1970s when it wasn't outlawed. Maybe modern soft doubles and trapping could confuse Kareem for a moment, but with his experience I doubt it'd be a plan against him. You can't front 7'2 monster who moved like a SF either - this is a suicide. You can try to outscore his team by playing small but Kareem was probably the best ever at killing small lineups. Leaving shooters wide open and clogging the paint isn't something Kareem didn't see either - the paint was crowded in the early 1970s on every possession.

It's not coincidence that Kareem was the best scorer in the league for 15 years, all while leading good and elite offenses. I understand that a lot of things is different now than then, but a lot of things were different in 1970 than in 1985. Kareem got older and slower, the league got more used to him and tried many new ways to stop him and nothing worked.

Not to mention that Kareem wasn't just a post player - he was very skilled. He had good handles for someone 7'2 who had to play within 1970s rules. He could run the break by himself and finish it with posters or eurostep layups. He didn't shoot a lot, but he had decent shooting touch. His finishing ability is unrivaled by anyone else. His faceup game wasn't utilized a lot for obvious reasons, but I've seen him beating players off the dribble as well. He's very good passer who knew how to use spacing around him better than any center.

I know it can create another discussion and disagreements, but when you look at Kareem skillset, Giannis ends up quite lame in comparison. Giannis is outstanding driver and finisher, but he has no in-between game, his vision is definitely worse than Kareem's and it's easy to gameplan against him with right personel. Yet he's 2 time MVP despite all limitations. I know, I know - he plays more on perimeter but that's the reason why he has it so tough in playoffs. I'm positive that we'd see Kareem doing more perimeter work in 2020, but in the end he always has reliable options to get points and create opportunities for others.

[limbo]

What does Kareem do better than Giannis offensively aside from shooting outside the paint?

[MyUniBroDavis]

What does Kareem do better than Giannis offensively aside from shooting outside the paint?

Laughs in skyhook

[freethedevil]

What does Kareem do better than Giannis offensively aside from shooting outside the paint?

Laughs in skyhook

laughs in hustling back on d

[limbo]

I mean, i'm genuinely asking... Just because Giannis has a more straight-line drive power game doesn't mean he's unskilled. If it would be that easy to just drive in a straight line to the basket and finish on better-than-Shaq like efficiency at the rim, then we'd see more 7 footers doing it. And yes, Giannis exceptionally gifted physical frame (which 99% of the league doesn't have) is the catalyst which allows him to do execute this style to such effectiveness, but the same can be said for someone like Kareem. Dude was 7'2'' with a longer wingspan than Giannis.

So if we forget about that for a minute, was Kareem better at dribbling than Giannis? Was he better at passing? Was he better at drawing fouls or shooting FTs? Was he better at finishing at the rim? Was he better in transition?

[70sFan]

What does Kareem do better than Giannis offensively aside from shooting outside the paint?

He's better passer, he read the defense better, he's much better isolation scorer, he's better post player, he's better offensive rebounder, much better FT shooter and the most importantly - Kareem couldn't be beaten simply by packing the paint.

The better question is why do you think Giannis is better?

[70sFan]

So if we forget about that for a minute, was Kareem better at dribbling than Giannis?

Probably not, although it's impossible to compare given that all Giannis dribbles would be called a carrying in the 1970s.

Was he better at passing?

Definitely.

Was he better at drawing fouls or shooting FTs?

He is better FT shooter.

Was he better at finishing at the rim?

He's more versatile finsher, Giannis struggles when he doesn't have straight path to the basket.

Was he better in transition?

No he wasn't, this one isn't close - I have to admit. Not that Kareem lacked anything in that aspect - he could lead the break on his own just fine.

[Doctor MJ]

This is all true, but I would say that I consider West & Oscar to be the best offensive player of the pre-Bird/Magic era, and the best offense of George Mikan's era was not his team but Bob Davies' Rochester Royals.

Ironically, right as the basketball world was deciding "run everything through the big man" the data was already telling a different story. Though granted, as I say that, the goaltending rule was critical for this.

Which speaks volume that West and Oscar were able to still be arguably the best offensive players of their time despite playing basically handicapped on multiple fronts in comparison to what offensive 'weapons' modern players are able to indulge in (better schemes, more overall talent, spacing, 3pt shooting, less dribbling restrictions, arguably favorable rules...)

Well yes, but this isn't a situation where bigs were in general the best offensive players and West & Oscar were just so amazing they could squeak past.

Other than Wilt in '67 when it really seems like opposing defenses weren't really sure how to react to his new approach, we basically didn't see elite offensive impact from bigs in the '50s and '60s.

[freethedevil]

What does Kareem do better than Giannis offensively aside from shooting outside the paint?

He's better passer, he read the defense better, he's much better isolation scorer, he's better post player, he's better offensive rebounder, much better FT shooter and the most importantly - Kareem couldn't be beaten simply by packing the paint.

The better question is why do you think Giannis is better?

Fighting screens
Man defense
Switching
Help defense
Lane jumping
Rim protection is a wash, kareem is better stay at home, but giannis gets to spots quicker
Setting screens
Interior scoring
Ball handling
Rim Running

Not seeing passing as an advantage at all. Giannis looks worse than kareem because he's asked to be the primary ball handler and playmaker. Kareem was a better passer in the late 70's and early 80's than he was at his peak, and he ended up with an assist percentage of 10-13% to a turnover percentage of 10-13% which is

Kareem's off-ball creation offsets this, but Giannis is definitely the better passer. No one's packing the paint against giannis successfully if he has chris paul next to him.